【NaNa说美股】20260511推土机前捡金币是吧？！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股今天是5月11号

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周一

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市场呢光速消化了美伊和谈

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陷入僵局的最新消息

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美股三大股指集体仍然小幅收窄

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标普与纳指继续每天刷新高

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不过油价与美债收益率的上升限制了股市涨幅

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但对于市场来说哈

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只要伊朗别反攻华盛顿

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一切都好商量

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川普昨天发帖直言

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伊朗的回应不可接受

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伊朗要求全面解除战争

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并且在30天内解除对伊朗的制裁

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称与伊朗的战争尚未结束

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受此消息影响呢

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油价回升

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过去两个月

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全球石油储备消耗了大约10亿桶

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摩根三里急得直跺脚

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称

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石油市场正在与时间赛跑

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如果霍尔木兹海峡的封锁持续到6月

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那油价就压不住了

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有趣的是

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大摩和他的弟弟小魔最近双双疯狂唱多

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缘由却撞上了白宫的政治铁拳

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川普几次精准做空原油

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把原油多头呢直接按在地上摩擦震慑力拉满

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还美滋滋的赚钱

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小魔说

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虽然原油价格被政治利益量压在100美元附近

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但是下游成品有的已经快炸了

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燃油价格飙升将直接冲击消费者

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航空公司与物流体系

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美国驾车出行旺季将于5月底

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阵亡将士纪念日的前后正式开启

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汽油零售价已经冲向4.56美元一加仑了

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加州的平均油价甚至已经升到了

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每加仑五美元以上

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所以嗯这个航空运输

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邮轮这些板块哈

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目前正在承受着更大的压力

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邮轮中基本面最稳健的RCL

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最近股价持续回落

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达美航空呢

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它自有炼油厂是核心差异化的对冲资产

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高油价的时候可以降本增效

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油价低的时候呢就成为负担

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所以达美航空的股价比其他航空股更具韧性

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虽然这几天也持续回落

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但仍处于历史高位水平

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不过呢中东那点破事哈

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完全盖不住AI的圣光呀

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费城半导体指数今天又续涨了2.6%

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更疯狂的是韩国股市

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韩国中今天又暴涨了4.32%

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创历史新高

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简直是牛冠全球

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SK海力士与三星电子长得就像中了彩票一样

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美股这边也像是一列全速前进的火车哈

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这张图描绘了踏空者的集体焦虑

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标普500的看涨

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期权溢价已经达到了两年来的最高水平

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踏空者是一边流泪

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一边疯狂追涨啊

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由于他们不敢在高位重仓买现货

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就只能够花点小钱通过期权加杠杆强行上车

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与此同时

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几乎没人想买看跌保护哈

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对冲意愿降至冰点

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市场情绪处于过度亢奋状态呢

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往往意味着短期的反转风险

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或者高波动风险已经不远了

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尤其是在今天嗯

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美股大盘上涨情况之下

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波率指数VIX也同步上升

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嗯因为明天4月CPI数据即将公布

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可能就有部分交易员买入下行保护

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川普将于本周5月13号到15号访华

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随行人员中英伟达

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苹果X森美孚

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波音

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高通黑石

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花旗等企业的CEO悉数在列

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市场也聚焦这次行程

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双方肯定会谈及伊朗问题

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在商业层面

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除了大豆和波音飞机这些老三样

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实际能达成的交易呢可能比较有限

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因为这次行程的重点在于修复双方关系

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而规模和实质性红利哈恐怕不及以往

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更多是一种政治姿态

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个股方面

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AI硬件产业链继续全面爆发

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尤其是光通信板块几乎涨疯了

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今天LITE因为将于5月18号纳入嗯

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这个纳指100触发大量被动资金提前抢筹

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股价直接暴涨

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今年3月份的时候呢

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LITE就已经被纳入标普500指数了哈

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这代表该股在短短两个月内

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同时挤升美国两大基准指数

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随着GPU算力持续堆叠

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真正限制AI数据中心效率的

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已经开始从芯片本身

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逐渐转向高速互联与数据传输了

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说白了现在AI服务器之间如果连不快

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GPU再强也会被拖慢效率

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所以呢无论是硅关CPU高速光模块

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还是数据中心内部互联

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全部都成了资金追逐的新核心

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CEOHR股价今天也大涨了3.25%

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AAOI更是暴涨超24%

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市场在暴利重新定价

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那些曾经被边缘化的基础设施环节

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在英伟达下一代RUBAN平台的预期下哈

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800G1.6T的需求想象空间完全打开

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现阶段无论是官通性还是存储板块

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技术面上的这个所谓阻力啊

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在疯狂的市场共识面前呢

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就脆弱的有如一张纸

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一戳就破

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决定股价天花板

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那从来不是估值

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也不是所谓的超买指标

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而是华尔街愿意把AI想象力推到多疯狂

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杠杆拉到多高

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在资金没有炒进性之前

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任何试图猜定的行为都是徒劳

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而且危险的

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连之前被迈威尔科技抛所

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导致这个股价崩盘的PODT哈

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都已经满血复活了

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股价逼近前高15美元

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逐渐资金如今是只要与AI基础设施沾边

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就敢讲故事的疯狂

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反观软件应用板块呢

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又被抽血

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市场现在的态度很明确

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就是不要未来可能赚钱的AI故事

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只要现在立即能接订单

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能扩产

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能兑现的AI硬件面

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A l i t

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取代纳值100席位的商业不动产数据分析公司

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cs gp的陨落

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就是一个很好的例子

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反映了投资者对于AI颠覆的担忧

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并非是杞人忧天哈

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因为这家数据提供商他曾经也是一只长牛股呀

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1998年上市

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从IPO价格九美元涨到了峰值100美元方的十倍

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结果在AI横空出世之后呢

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就彻底没落了

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今年股价已经腰斩

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如今更是直接被踢出了那只100

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另一只股票嗯

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汤森路特TRI同样是深陷泥潭

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听这个名字大家都知道哈

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大名鼎鼎的路透社

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就是他家的2025年年K这一条嗯

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超长的上影线

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估计就是他无法再回去的顶部了

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这些曾经垄断了专业信息的提供商

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已经从AI赢家的幻觉中醒来哈

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变成了面临存危机的夕阳产业了

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ServiceNow的护城河呢是比较深

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因为即便AI再强

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也需要一个控制台来获知谁有权呃

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修改服务器设置

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随负责这个流程

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而企业的流程数据掌握在ServiceNow手里

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AI想要自动处理工单的话

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必须调用ServiceNow的数据

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但是这个公司传统的商业模式

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也同样是依赖于企业员工数量的

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如果AI agent能够独立处理

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80%的工单和这个流程的话

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那企业就不再需要那么多人了

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ServiceNow的订阅收入就会萎缩哈

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这是华尔街看空service note的核心逻辑

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所以呢他这个公司也正在进行极其痛苦

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但是很有必要的这个商业模式的转型

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根据今年一季报

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他的AI产品

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now assist的签约额

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在2026年有望突破10亿甚至15亿美元

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证明了他的确有能力把人头费转化为AI增值费

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但这仍处于新旧动能转换的一个尴尬期哈

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因为旧的增长点呢在放缓

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而新的AI收入增长的虽然快

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但是还没有大到足够嗯

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能覆盖市场对传统模式萎缩的恐惧

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所以它的股价也还在继续磨底

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其实比起AI替代来嗯

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ServiceNow最大的威胁还是微软

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如果微软通过call pilots

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直接在系统底层接管企业流程

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不再通过ServiceNow的界面

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那个才是真正的灭顶之灾啊

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只要是这微软没能把社频道的客户

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成规模的给抢走

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那ServiceNow的估值修复呢只是时间问题嗯

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这支股票现在就是一只高风险的转型股

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想要抄底的朋友呢

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别想一步到位哈

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现价八十五九十可以买点

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到七十五八十再补点

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现在市场情绪非常的极端

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分批布局是唯一的理性的选择

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等公司用未来几个季度的财报去证明

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他自己不会被AI替代

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00:09:22,919 --> 00:09:26,210
那个时候才可能真正迎来这个主升浪

216
00:09:26,210 --> 00:09:28,730
太空概念股延续强势

217
00:09:28,730 --> 00:09:31,289
DXYZ这几天涨得非常的疯狂

218
00:09:31,289 --> 00:09:37,438
SPACEXIPO热潮持续推动这些相关概念股的炒作啊

219
00:09:37,438 --> 00:09:40,519
WORKLAB股价呢在上周五飙升34%后

220
00:09:40,519 --> 00:09:42,960
今天又续涨了11%嗯

221
00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:46,919
小月亮LUNR也连续两天强势上涨

222
00:09:46,919 --> 00:09:51,288
本周四将会有一支新股CBR is上市

223
00:09:51,288 --> 00:09:53,620
这是一家AI芯片公司

224
00:09:53,620 --> 00:09:55,860
专注于AI推理芯片

225
00:09:55,860 --> 00:09:59,620
已经获得亚马逊和OpenAI这两大客户的背书

226
00:09:59,620 --> 00:10:00,539
欧朋爱呢

227
00:10:00,539 --> 00:10:04,830
与他签了一份超200亿美元的芯片采购协议

228
00:10:04,830 --> 00:10:06,990
并且获认股权证

229
00:10:06,990 --> 00:10:11,519
可以购入超过3300万股的这股份

230
00:10:11,519 --> 00:10:13,960
其实早在2024年上半年

231
00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:15,889
公司就已经想上市了

232
00:10:15,889 --> 00:10:19,429
但是由于他的业务高度依赖单一客户

233
00:10:19,429 --> 00:10:20,610
G42行

234
00:10:20,610 --> 00:10:22,450
引发了监管审查

235
00:10:22,450 --> 00:10:24,649
并且导致此前IPO撤回

236
00:10:24,649 --> 00:10:27,490
而如今随着OpenAI与亚马逊的加入

237
00:10:27,490 --> 00:10:30,909
公司摇身一变成了挑战英伟达

238
00:10:30,909 --> 00:10:32,960
推理市场的希望之星

239
00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:36,320
收入结构呢也显著嗯多元化了

240
00:10:36,320 --> 00:10:39,318
尽管公司目前仍处于亏损状态哈

241
00:10:39,318 --> 00:10:42,798
但投资者压住推理时代算力需求爆发

242
00:10:42,798 --> 00:10:46,710
尤其是在当前AI芯片热潮持续升温的背景下

243
00:10:46,710 --> 00:10:49,070
该股呢得到机构的热捧

244
00:10:49,070 --> 00:10:51,429
认购倍数已经超过了20倍

245
00:10:51,429 --> 00:10:52,669
据路透社报道

246
00:10:52,669 --> 00:10:55,169
公司正考虑将IPO定价区间

247
00:10:55,169 --> 00:10:57,850
从一百十五到125美元

248
00:10:57,850 --> 00:11:01,269
大幅上调至150~160美元

249
00:11:01,269 --> 00:11:04,980
发行股数同步扩大到3000万股

250
00:11:04,980 --> 00:11:07,779
募资规模呢可达48亿美元

251
00:11:07,779 --> 00:11:10,259
对应的整体估值约350亿美元

252
00:11:10,259 --> 00:11:13,970
可能成为今年迄今全球规模最大的IPO

253
00:11:13,970 --> 00:11:17,500
就是在那些s space x lon topic之前哈嗯

254
00:11:17,500 --> 00:11:21,399
核电龙头公用事业电力股CEEG公布财报之后

255
00:11:21,399 --> 00:11:22,700
股价先涨后跌

256
00:11:22,700 --> 00:11:26,990
和上周公布财报的那个VST走势几乎一样

257
00:11:26,990 --> 00:11:29,789
公司Q1营收一百十一亿美元

258
00:11:29,789 --> 00:11:31,669
同比增长近64%

259
00:11:31,669 --> 00:11:35,049
主要得益于1月完成的靠牌呢收购

260
00:11:35,049 --> 00:11:39,399
并表调整后运营利润为每股2.74美元

261
00:11:39,399 --> 00:11:40,720
同比增长28%

262
00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:42,068
虽然数据很强

263
00:11:42,068 --> 00:11:45,629
但是由于公司维持全年盈利指引不变

264
00:11:45,629 --> 00:11:47,818
导致市场的期待落空

265
00:11:47,818 --> 00:11:49,339
嗯资金获利了结

266
00:11:49,339 --> 00:11:50,979
根据财报细节

267
00:11:50,979 --> 00:11:54,298
他这个季度利润增长并不完全来自

268
00:11:54,298 --> 00:11:55,750
核心业务扩张

269
00:11:55,750 --> 00:11:58,250
除了COOPPINE呢并表贡献之外

270
00:11:58,250 --> 00:12:02,000
本季度盈利还受到了股权激励支出调整

271
00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:06,190
以及核等税收抵免组合收益的阶段性的提升

272
00:12:06,190 --> 00:12:07,070
换句话说

273
00:12:07,070 --> 00:12:09,679
这个利润里掺了一些财季水分

274
00:12:09,679 --> 00:12:12,759
不是纯粹靠发电业务自然增长

275
00:12:12,759 --> 00:12:15,779
所以被市场视为低质量的增长

276
00:12:15,779 --> 00:12:18,318
因为可持续性相对没有那么强嘛

277
00:12:18,318 --> 00:12:20,658
另外呢尽管营收暴涨

278
00:12:20,658 --> 00:12:24,958
但是Q1核心核电子厂的容量因子下降到了

279
00:12:24,958 --> 00:12:27,139
92.3%嗯

280
00:12:27,139 --> 00:12:31,000
公司解释是由于计划内的维护天数增加

281
00:12:31,000 --> 00:12:33,610
从去年同期88天嗯

282
00:12:33,610 --> 00:12:35,049
涨到现在99天

283
00:12:35,049 --> 00:12:37,789
但是现在正值美国数据中心用电需求

284
00:12:37,789 --> 00:12:39,080
最疯狂的时候

285
00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:41,879
核电站停工维护时间增加

286
00:12:41,879 --> 00:12:45,559
那就意味着公司错失了部分高价售电的机会

287
00:12:45,559 --> 00:12:47,990
多少还是会影响资金情绪

288
00:12:47,990 --> 00:12:50,710
尤其是在当前高利率环境之下哈

289
00:12:50,710 --> 00:12:52,070
高估值公用事业股

290
00:12:52,070 --> 00:12:55,279
本身就更容易遭遇资金重新定价

291
00:12:55,279 --> 00:12:56,960
其实管理层也难啊

292
00:12:56,960 --> 00:13:00,019
因为目前美国联邦能源管理委员会

293
00:13:00,019 --> 00:13:03,899
对于核电站直接向数据中心供电的收费模式

294
00:13:03,899 --> 00:13:05,519
还有接入标准呢

295
00:13:05,519 --> 00:13:07,850
仍然存在政策博弈

296
00:13:07,850 --> 00:13:10,070
在这个关键政策落定之前

297
00:13:10,070 --> 00:13:13,120
公司如果贸然的大他扶上跳指引的话

298
00:13:13,120 --> 00:13:15,379
反而可能就引发监管层

299
00:13:15,379 --> 00:13:18,259
对于核电暴力的进一步关注哈

300
00:13:18,259 --> 00:13:19,818
就可能要杀肥猪

301
00:13:19,818 --> 00:13:22,219
所以这次不上挑指引

302
00:13:22,219 --> 00:13:24,599
并不代表公司基本面出了问题

303
00:13:24,599 --> 00:13:29,730
更像是这个管理层有意保持保守的预测

304
00:13:29,730 --> 00:13:32,250
财报中中其实有一个非常亮眼的点

305
00:13:32,250 --> 00:13:36,620
就是他未来几年嗯极高的现金流确定性

306
00:13:36,620 --> 00:13:39,159
公司预计在2028年和2029年

307
00:13:39,159 --> 00:13:39,840
将会实现

308
00:13:39,840 --> 00:13:43,029
一百十五亿到130亿美元的自由现金流

309
00:13:43,029 --> 00:13:46,090
对于这种重资产公用事业公司来说

310
00:13:46,090 --> 00:13:46,730
稳定

311
00:13:46,730 --> 00:13:48,629
而且可预测的现金流

312
00:13:48,629 --> 00:13:51,730
才是长期估值最核心的支撑啊

313
00:13:51,730 --> 00:13:55,330
因此CEEG的这个长期存在逻辑哈

314
00:13:55,330 --> 00:13:55,769
并没有

315
00:13:55,769 --> 00:13:58,860
因为这次没有上调全年指引而动摇

316
00:13:58,860 --> 00:14:02,740
只不过现阶段的市场并不满足于业绩不错

317
00:14:02,740 --> 00:14:05,720
而是需要新的更强的催化剂

318
00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:07,200
比如和谷歌

319
00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:08,860
亚马逊这类科技巨头

320
00:14:08,860 --> 00:14:11,779
又签下新的长期购电协议啦

321
00:14:11,779 --> 00:14:14,980
或者监管层正式放开核电直供

322
00:14:14,980 --> 00:14:17,139
数据中心的政策限制

323
00:14:17,139 --> 00:14:18,080
只有这些

324
00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:22,179
真正能打开长期盈利天花板的新故事哈

325
00:14:22,179 --> 00:14:25,490
才有可能推动cg股价开启下一轮主升浪

326
00:14:25,490 --> 00:14:29,590
不然的话它就还是这种温吞吞的公用事业股

327
00:14:29,590 --> 00:14:33,450
资金更愿意去炒那些不受监管的独立电力股

328
00:14:33,450 --> 00:14:37,090
比如燃气电池啦或者是涡轮机龙头等等

329
00:14:37,090 --> 00:14:40,309
我的那股价呢今天高开低走

330
00:14:40,309 --> 00:14:42,830
盘前涨了近7%呃

331
00:14:42,830 --> 00:14:44,210
盘中跳水收跌

332
00:14:44,210 --> 00:14:45,210
哪怕公司披露

333
00:14:45,210 --> 00:14:50,019
正在推进多起与汉坦病毒疫苗有关的早期研究

334
00:14:50,019 --> 00:14:52,379
今天这个股价走势不知道什么情况哈

335
00:14:52,379 --> 00:14:55,340
不是觉得这个病毒被夸大了呢

336
00:14:55,340 --> 00:14:57,578
还是觉得不需要疫苗嗯

337
00:14:57,578 --> 00:14:59,599
行今天我们就简单说到这里

338
00:14:59,599 --> 00:15:02,399
那我们明天就等CPI数据哈

339
00:15:02,399 --> 00:15:06,659
看看是推动这个市场百尺竿头更进一步呢

340
00:15:06,659 --> 00:15:08,460
还是这个炸裂市场

341
00:15:08,460 --> 00:15:09,679
明天见拜拜

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