瑞银-中国中免(1880.HK)：一季度业绩符合预期，高基数下净利率同比扩张-260429

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大家好

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今天咱们来聊点儿特别有意思的

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我们要化身金融侦探来破解

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一份可以说是极具戏曲性的财报

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你看啊

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瑞银集团刚刚发布了关于中国

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中缅的一季度最新研究报告

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这份报告里藏着一个巨大的数据悖论

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很多市场老手乍一看都觉得摸不着头脑

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今天咱们就一步步抽丝剥茧

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把这堆富塔数据背后的真实商业逻辑给挖出来

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咱们先来看看这个核心的谜团

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这简直是财报界最经典的冰火两重天啊

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一边是总营业收入

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同比只增长了微乎其微的1per3

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毫无疑问低于市场预期

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感觉有点卖不动了

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但是话锋一转

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你猜怎么着

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他们的净利润竟然逆势大涨了整整21

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percent不仅达标

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还远超分析师预测

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这就奇了怪了

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一家公司在营收基本停滞的情况下

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是怎么做到让利润直接起飞的呢

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咱们今天的路线图非常清晰

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先看这组神奇的数字牌轮

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再挖一挖营收停滞的原因

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接着揭开利润暴涨的底盘

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最后瞧瞧未来的预测和估值到底怎么走好了

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第一部分一季度财报的悖论

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咱们先来盘盘这些硬核数据定个基调

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中年一季度的总营收

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定格在675.4亿元人民币

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听着挺多对吧

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但相比去年同期增长率只有区区的一个百分比

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对于中缅这种免税龙头

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过去大家习惯了看它高增长的企业来说

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一个百分比说白了就是在原地踏步

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这也是一开始

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很多指定营收的分析师大喊失望的原因

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但是朋友们注意了

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当我们把目光挪大

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这67.9亿元的净利润上时

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感觉完全不一样了

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在总盘子几乎没变大的情况下

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净利润直接窜升了21percent

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在这看似疲软的表面数字底下

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其实藏着一台效率极其恐怖的赚钱机器

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那么问题来了

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这钱到底是从哪儿抠出来的

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又是在哪流失的呢

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这叫引说我们的第二部分

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营收未达预期的背后

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总营收为什么没涨

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咱们得看看消费者到底把钱花哪儿了

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看了瑞银的报告

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你就会发现

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中缅各个渠道的表现简直是超级大分化

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海南那边免税销售依然非常火爆

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同增长了大约25倍

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看来大家去海岛度假这手还是剁得很欢的

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但是重灾区在机场和线下

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这两个渠道的销售额同比暴跌了超过50倍

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可以说是直接腰斩

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一头是25倍的繁荣

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另一头是腰斩的暴跌

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这两边一中和总营收

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可不就只剩下那尴尬的1percent了吗

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第三部分利润率扩张的秘密

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既然县少和七厂卖得那么惨

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总营收也没怎么涨

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那利润究竟是怎么起飞的呢

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聊到赚钱效率就必须得看净利润率

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说白了就是看你每卖100块钱的东西

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最后能往自己兜里揣多少纯利润

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瑞银特别点出

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中免一季度的净利润率达到了13.9%

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比分析师预期的还要高出2.3个百分点

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你要知道去年同期的基数已经很高了

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能在这种情况下继续拔高利润率

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真的相当不容易

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他们是怎么做到的呢

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秘密武器就是四个字

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战略转变

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中缅现在不跟你玩儿什么骨折价

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冲销量的套路了

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打折不存在的

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他们开始严格控制折扣

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把火力全集中在利润空间巨大的奢侈品上

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其实就是少卖点

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靠打折走量的便宜货

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多卖点高利润的尖儿货

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东西可能是卖的少了

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但卖出去的每一件都赚的盆满钵满

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这就是教科书级别的高质量增长啊

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第四部分

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咱们来看看未来预测的调整

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看到中缅盈利能力这么强

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分析师们对未来是怎么看的呢

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综合了一季度的表现

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瑞银对他们26和27年的每股收益

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做了一个大约1percent的微调

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他们重新建了模型

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主要有三步

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首先下调了机场免税的预测

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因为上海国际机场那边的运营家有了点变动

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其次削减了线上的预期

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毕竟人家不打算用低价换流量了嘛

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但是最关键的第三步

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瑞银大幅调高了对中缅净利润率的预期

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由于中缅持续多卖高利润的奢侈品

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瑞盈对他们未来的赚钱效率可以说是信心十足

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最后第五部分

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估值与最终判断模型

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这么一通重构对咱们投资者来说意味着什么

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这里又出现了一个特别有意思的矛盾点

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考虑到宏观大环境和整体营收预期的细微下调

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瑞银确实把中缅H股的目标价从90多港元

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下调到了81.5亿港元

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但是注意了

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人家依然死死咬住买入评级不松口

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为什么

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因为在分析师眼里

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这种撒生一点

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短期低质量营收

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换取长期高质量利润的打法简直太健康了

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现在的估值依然非常有吸引力

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当然啦

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投资总是有风险的

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瑞银也客观列出了多空因素

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如果三亚旅游降温或者免税牌照发的更多了

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引入了竞争

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那肯定是下行风险

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但反过来看

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如果大家消费回暖比预期快

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或者万一期待已久的市内免税店政策

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真的落地了呢

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那简直就是给中缅打开了一个

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极其庞大的新世界大门啊

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所以你看中缅这次向市场证明了

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就算是在逆风局里

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靠着卖奢侈品少打折

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依然能挤出丰厚的利润

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不过最后我要留给大家一个思考题了

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在现在这种瞬息万变的宏观环境下

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这种保利润气归罗的打法真的能一直赢下去吗

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下个季度他还能不能继续带来惊喜

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这绝对值得咱们持续关注

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感谢收看今天的财报解析

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我们下期再见

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