BV14oZFB4EsZ · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:01,520 你好 2 00:00:01,520 --> 00:00:02,160 我是阿 3 00:00:02,160 --> 00:00:04,179 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程 4 00:00:04,179 --> 00:00:05,480 接下来的四节课 5 00:00:05,480 --> 00:00:07,440 我们来讲反转 6 00:00:10,480 --> 00:00:13,000 首先我会定义什么是反转 7 00:00:13,980 --> 00:00:18,679 接下来我会做区分小反转导致震荡区间大反转 8 00:00:18,679 --> 00:00:20,820 导致反向的趋势 9 00:00:23,719 --> 00:00:26,600 反转是从突破开始的 10 00:00:27,339 --> 00:00:28,820 即使突破很弱 11 00:00:28,820 --> 00:00:30,519 但是在反转的初期 12 00:00:30,519 --> 00:00:33,020 几乎总是有一个突破 13 00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:41,979 这里有一个上涨趋势 14 00:00:41,979 --> 00:00:43,719 然后是一个上涨趋势 15 00:00:43,719 --> 00:00:46,039 反转为下降趋势 16 00:00:47,560 --> 00:00:50,740 下降趋势反转为上涨趋势 17 00:00:50,740 --> 00:00:52,399 一个顶部的反转 18 00:00:52,399 --> 00:00:54,600 一个底部的反转 19 00:00:59,000 --> 00:01:01,820 上涨趋势和下降趋势是相反的 20 00:01:01,820 --> 00:01:03,960 当趋势反转时 21 00:01:04,730 --> 00:01:07,129 趋势从上涨反转为下降 22 00:01:07,129 --> 00:01:10,010 然后从下降反转为上涨 23 00:01:12,540 --> 00:01:15,060 所有市场要么在趋势中 24 00:01:15,060 --> 00:01:16,540 要么在震荡区间中 25 00:01:17,780 --> 00:01:21,060 这种市场周期的变化就是反转 26 00:01:22,599 --> 00:01:26,180 例如市场从上涨趋势变为震荡区间 27 00:01:26,180 --> 00:01:27,989 也属于反转 28 00:01:27,989 --> 00:01:32,349 尽管大多数人通常不用反转这个词去描述 29 00:01:36,060 --> 00:01:37,200 震荡区间 30 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:38,680 然后多头突破 31 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:39,840 这是一个突破 32 00:01:39,840 --> 00:01:42,340 突破这个词是我通常使用的术语 33 00:01:42,340 --> 00:01:44,259 你也可以说这是一个反转 34 00:01:44,259 --> 00:01:46,118 因为它从一个市场周期 35 00:01:46,118 --> 00:01:48,739 变化到了另一个市场周期 36 00:01:52,180 --> 00:01:54,700 上涨趋势变成了震荡区间 37 00:01:54,700 --> 00:01:58,379 交易者通常说他是调整或回调 38 00:01:58,659 --> 00:02:00,718 他一开始确实是回调 39 00:02:00,718 --> 00:02:03,099 但一旦持续20根或更多的K线 40 00:02:03,099 --> 00:02:04,659 多头突破的概率下降 41 00:02:04,659 --> 00:02:07,310 变得与空头突破的概率相同 42 00:02:07,310 --> 00:02:08,909 与其说是回调 43 00:02:08,909 --> 00:02:11,509 我更喜欢使用震荡区间这个词 44 00:02:11,509 --> 00:02:13,069 震荡区间意味着 45 00:02:13,069 --> 00:02:16,669 多头突破的概率与空头突破的概率相同 46 00:02:17,780 --> 00:02:21,979 在回调的初期概率有利于趋势延续 47 00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:25,159 但随着K线越来越多 48 00:02:26,319 --> 00:02:29,400 多头和空头的概率变得越来越接近 49 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:35,639 市场每一次方向的改变 50 00:02:36,719 --> 00:02:40,479 市场行为的每一次改变都是一种反转 51 00:02:42,699 --> 00:02:44,780 在这里有一个小的震荡区间 52 00:02:45,860 --> 00:02:48,900 大部分反转都存在一定程度的震荡区间 53 00:02:48,900 --> 00:02:52,569 通常上涨趋势不会直接反转为下降趋势 54 00:02:52,569 --> 00:02:55,969 反转之前会先进入一个短暂的震荡区间 55 00:02:56,210 --> 00:02:59,289 下降趋势通常不会直接变为上涨趋势 56 00:02:59,289 --> 00:03:02,409 反转之前会先有一个小的震荡区间 57 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:06,430 这里有一个小双顶和一个更大的双顶 58 00:03:06,430 --> 00:03:08,169 以及一根反转阴线 59 00:03:08,169 --> 00:03:09,550 然后出现了趋势反 60 00:03:09,550 --> 00:03:11,909 这里有一个小双底和不错的阳线 61 00:03:11,909 --> 00:03:13,949 然后向上反转 62 00:03:16,439 --> 00:03:19,709 这是欧元兑美元的5分钟K线图 63 00:03:20,109 --> 00:03:22,229 市场不断尝试反转 64 00:03:22,229 --> 00:03:24,508 没几根K线就有一次反转 65 00:03:24,508 --> 00:03:27,439 尝试空头突破 66 00:03:27,439 --> 00:03:31,159 但跟随不好多头尝试反转 67 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:35,199 在这里没有成功 68 00:03:35,639 --> 00:03:40,229 但空头突破后的第19根K线发生了大反转 69 00:03:40,509 --> 00:03:42,069 这是一个双K反转 70 00:03:42,069 --> 00:03:43,389 这根K线下跌 71 00:03:43,389 --> 00:03:45,569 那尽管相隔19根K线 72 00:03:45,569 --> 00:03:48,069 但这是双K反转 73 00:03:52,419 --> 00:03:54,289 你可以叫他多头反转 74 00:03:54,289 --> 00:03:55,550 你可以叫它反转 75 00:03:55,550 --> 00:03:57,030 怎么叫它无所谓 76 00:03:57,030 --> 00:03:58,810 市场尝试向下突破 77 00:03:58,810 --> 00:04:00,650 但现在显然在上涨 78 00:04:00,650 --> 00:04:03,009 这就是一次反转 79 00:04:06,719 --> 00:04:08,680 市场在这里强势上涨 80 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:10,199 然后再上涨一段 81 00:04:10,199 --> 00:04:13,400 但是看这个这根K线完全反转了那根K线 82 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:14,769 这是一个小反转 83 00:04:14,769 --> 00:04:17,028 在更高时间周期K线图上 84 00:04:17,028 --> 00:04:20,970 比如这两根K线组成了一个看起来类似这样 85 00:04:20,970 --> 00:04:22,389 这是一个反转 86 00:04:22,389 --> 00:04:25,310 然而它没有导致相反的趋势 87 00:04:25,310 --> 00:04:27,610 它只是导致了一个震荡区间 88 00:04:27,610 --> 00:04:29,790 这根K线是一个小阳线 89 00:04:29,790 --> 00:04:32,769 接下来是一个同样大小的阴线 90 00:04:33,310 --> 00:04:36,470 这是窄震荡区间内的小反转 91 00:04:37,339 --> 00:04:38,439 毫无意义 92 00:04:38,439 --> 00:04:40,399 大概率只是继续横盘 93 00:04:40,399 --> 00:04:43,420 而不是向上或向下突破 94 00:04:45,420 --> 00:04:48,399 每根K线上的引线都是一次反转 95 00:04:48,399 --> 00:04:50,160 市场尝试上涨 96 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:52,019 然后下跌 97 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:55,689 市场下跌然后上涨 98 00:04:55,689 --> 00:04:58,649 所有这些引线都是反转上涨 99 00:04:58,649 --> 00:05:00,129 然后下跌上涨 100 00:05:00,129 --> 00:05:01,029 然后下跌 101 00:05:01,029 --> 00:05:02,589 上个双K反转 102 00:05:02,589 --> 00:05:04,620 在更高时间周期上 103 00:05:04,620 --> 00:05:09,060 他们就是一个十字星或长上影线 104 00:05:10,459 --> 00:05:11,899 上涨然后下跌 105 00:05:12,939 --> 00:05:14,319 这是一个反转 106 00:05:14,319 --> 00:05:16,600 在更高时间周期K线图上 107 00:05:16,600 --> 00:05:17,920 比如60分钟图 108 00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:20,579 它们一个十字星或者反转阴线 109 00:05:20,579 --> 00:05:22,100 先上涨后下跌 110 00:05:22,100 --> 00:05:25,100 这根K线的开盘在这里收盘 111 00:05:25,100 --> 00:05:28,060 在这里有很长的上影线 112 00:05:32,779 --> 00:05:35,449 这是只有一个tick的成交量图 113 00:05:35,449 --> 00:05:37,129 下跌了一个tick 114 00:05:37,129 --> 00:05:38,829 然后横盘了一个tick 115 00:05:38,829 --> 00:05:40,250 然后上涨了一个tick 116 00:05:40,250 --> 00:05:41,350 横盘了一个tick 117 00:05:41,350 --> 00:05:43,339 下跌了一个tick 118 00:05:43,660 --> 00:05:45,279 这里发生了一笔交易 119 00:05:45,279 --> 00:05:47,120 下一笔交易发生在这里 120 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:49,199 然后下一笔交易发生在这里 121 00:05:49,199 --> 00:05:50,879 这是一个反转 122 00:05:50,879 --> 00:05:53,720 尽管是在1tick图上发生了反转 123 00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:57,399 它在更高的时间周期图上是看不见的 124 00:05:58,810 --> 00:06:00,170 这笔交易下跌 125 00:06:00,170 --> 00:06:01,850 下一笔交易上涨了 126 00:06:01,850 --> 00:06:04,170 后一笔的交易又下跌了 127 00:06:04,170 --> 00:06:05,800 上涨下跌 128 00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:06,639 这是一个反转 129 00:06:06,639 --> 00:06:08,839 尽管只是两笔交易上涨 130 00:06:08,839 --> 00:06:10,720 然后下跌 131 00:06:11,490 --> 00:06:13,370 只用了不到一秒钟的时间 132 00:06:13,370 --> 00:06:15,850 它仍然是一个反转 133 00:06:16,689 --> 00:06:19,939 任何方向的变化都是一个反转 134 00:06:20,220 --> 00:06:23,459 这是欧元兑美元etc成交图 135 00:06:23,459 --> 00:06:25,259 市场上涨了一个tick 136 00:06:25,259 --> 00:06:26,339 又上涨了一个tick 137 00:06:28,459 --> 00:06:29,519 这是一个反转 138 00:06:29,519 --> 00:06:31,740 上涨然后下跌 139 00:06:33,500 --> 00:06:35,470 上一笔在这个价格交易 140 00:06:35,470 --> 00:06:37,430 下一笔交易发生在这里 141 00:06:37,430 --> 00:06:39,870 然后接下来的交易发生在这里 142 00:06:39,870 --> 00:06:41,370 在这里反转上涨 143 00:06:41,370 --> 00:06:43,220 在这里反转下跌 144 00:06:43,220 --> 00:06:45,560 尽管只是0.1个pip的变化 145 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:49,779 如果你看价格只有0.1个pip 146 00:06:52,220 --> 00:06:54,139 市场上涨了0.1P吧 147 00:06:54,139 --> 00:06:56,259 然后下跌了0.1P吧 148 00:06:56,259 --> 00:06:58,519 它从上涨反转为下跌 149 00:06:58,519 --> 00:07:00,959 然后在这里来回反转 150 00:07:01,550 --> 00:07:04,790 每次方向的变化都是个反转 151 00:07:08,879 --> 00:07:12,220 接下来我要讲如何区分小反转和大反转 152 00:07:12,220 --> 00:07:14,959 我认为这非常重要 153 00:07:16,459 --> 00:07:17,500 一个小反转 154 00:07:17,500 --> 00:07:20,769 比如下降趋势中的多头反转 155 00:07:20,769 --> 00:07:22,589 通常会变成雄起 156 00:07:22,589 --> 00:07:25,370 下降趋势多头尝试反转 157 00:07:25,370 --> 00:07:27,490 这是上涨趋势的开始吗 158 00:07:27,490 --> 00:07:28,720 不太可能 159 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:30,519 当下降通道这么窄的时候 160 00:07:30,519 --> 00:07:33,319 通常第一次向上反转会变成雄奇 161 00:07:33,319 --> 00:07:37,319 就像这里或者成为震荡区间的一部分 162 00:07:38,029 --> 00:07:40,750 大反转需要更多的K线 163 00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:41,899 大反转 164 00:07:41,899 --> 00:07:45,500 意味着市场从下降趋势转变为上涨趋势 165 00:07:45,500 --> 00:07:46,980 是一个大的改变 166 00:07:46,980 --> 00:07:49,000 它通常需要更多的K线 167 00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:51,220 十根或更多 168 00:07:52,860 --> 00:07:55,769 在一个非常窄的下降通道中反转 169 00:07:55,769 --> 00:07:57,028 很大概率会失败 170 00:07:57,028 --> 00:08:00,309 所以交易者准备在反转失败时卖出做空 171 00:08:00,309 --> 00:08:01,879 他们会在某根K线 172 00:08:01,879 --> 00:08:04,680 最好是阴线的低点下方挂压住 173 00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:06,279 下降趋势将继续 174 00:08:06,279 --> 00:08:07,620 小双顶雄起 175 00:08:07,620 --> 00:08:10,370 阴线尝试向上反转 176 00:08:10,370 --> 00:08:11,149 不是很强 177 00:08:11,149 --> 00:08:13,509 大概率是雄奇 178 00:08:15,500 --> 00:08:18,300 低点抬高的大反转看起来不错 179 00:08:19,300 --> 00:08:22,220 下降趋势突破趋势线 180 00:08:22,589 --> 00:08:26,310 低点抬高的双底大阳线是好的做多信号 181 00:08:26,310 --> 00:08:29,250 开收盘高于过去15~20根K线的高点 182 00:08:29,250 --> 00:08:32,889 而且还有跟随K线多头获胜 183 00:08:32,889 --> 00:08:34,909 空头尝试再次下跌 184 00:08:34,909 --> 00:08:37,450 但可能只是一个小反转 185 00:08:37,690 --> 00:08:40,389 也就是说这要么是震荡区间 186 00:08:40,389 --> 00:08:43,490 要么是大概率还会再涨一些 187 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:48,419 交易者在向上反转时买入做多 188 00:08:48,419 --> 00:08:50,240 尤其要么在这里买入 189 00:08:50,240 --> 00:08:53,360 要么在这个阳线的上方买入 190 00:08:57,139 --> 00:08:58,460 这是一个大反转 191 00:09:00,100 --> 00:09:03,059 下降趋势向上突破了趋势线 192 00:09:03,059 --> 00:09:06,279 整个结构有大约10~15根K线 193 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:09,080 上涨六或七根K线 194 00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:10,240 下跌六或七根 195 00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:11,200 结构足够大 196 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:12,929 可以期待一个大反转 197 00:09:12,929 --> 00:09:15,129 上涨六或七或十根K线 198 00:09:15,129 --> 00:09:18,169 这是一个低点抬高的大反转 199 00:09:19,019 --> 00:09:22,460 这个低点在下降趋势最低点的上方 200 00:09:22,460 --> 00:09:25,019 因此这是一个低点抬高的反转 201 00:09:25,019 --> 00:09:27,620 它有足够多的K线来形成大反转 202 00:09:27,620 --> 00:09:31,779 因此交易者可以预期上涨五十二十根K线 203 00:09:31,779 --> 00:09:33,240 这也是一个双底 204 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:37,259 因此它是一个低点抬高的双底大反转 205 00:09:41,460 --> 00:09:42,620 再次强调 206 00:09:42,620 --> 00:09:45,059 小反转通常会导致震荡区间 207 00:09:45,059 --> 00:09:47,129 或而不是相反的趋势 208 00:09:47,129 --> 00:09:51,009 但有时震荡区间可以包含一个大反转 209 00:09:53,799 --> 00:09:56,080 这里非常窄的通道 210 00:09:56,080 --> 00:09:58,320 只是小多头能得到的最好结果 211 00:09:58,320 --> 00:09:59,360 要么是雄奇 212 00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:01,179 要么是震荡区间 213 00:10:01,179 --> 00:10:02,500 在这个案例中 214 00:10:02,500 --> 00:10:05,019 后续变成了震荡区间 215 00:10:05,469 --> 00:10:08,509 一些多头会持有部分仓位 216 00:10:09,120 --> 00:10:12,078 因为大概率是雄奇或震荡区间 217 00:10:12,078 --> 00:10:14,839 所以多头会在反弹之后快速止盈 218 00:10:14,839 --> 00:10:16,759 全面一些多头至少大会进仓持有 219 00:10:16,759 --> 00:10:19,909 部分仓位已被震荡区间变成大反转 220 00:10:19,909 --> 00:10:22,700 变成上涨趋势 221 00:10:26,080 --> 00:10:29,159 这个上涨趋势持续了大约30根K线 222 00:10:29,159 --> 00:10:30,120 高点略微 223 00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:33,399 但这里的整个结构只有五根K线左右 224 00:10:33,559 --> 00:10:36,120 这大概率只是一次小反转 225 00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:37,700 要么是牛起 226 00:10:37,700 --> 00:10:40,000 要么是震荡区间 227 00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:43,340 空投当然会快速止盈 228 00:10:43,340 --> 00:10:46,639 做包头皮交易一些也可能会继续持有 229 00:10:46,639 --> 00:10:50,059 做期待可以反转到这里或这里 230 00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:58,100 我想讲一讲所谓的噪音 231 00:10:58,100 --> 00:10:59,840 人们谈论交易的时候 232 00:10:59,840 --> 00:11:02,000 经常会说到这个词 233 00:11:03,210 --> 00:11:06,000 噪音的意思其实就是小反转 234 00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:08,980 例如有一个下降趋势反转 235 00:11:08,980 --> 00:11:10,000 尝试反转 236 00:11:10,000 --> 00:11:13,240 做波段交易的交易者会忽略小反转 237 00:11:13,450 --> 00:11:15,149 他们会说哦 238 00:11:15,149 --> 00:11:16,570 那只是噪音而已 239 00:11:16,570 --> 00:11:19,240 此外在一个窄震荡区间内 240 00:11:19,240 --> 00:11:20,879 当市场多次反转时 241 00:11:20,879 --> 00:11:22,600 一些交易者会忽略他们 242 00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:24,720 并称之为噪音 243 00:11:31,179 --> 00:11:35,460 我对噪音的定义是一些小到你会忽略的东西 244 00:11:37,299 --> 00:11:39,440 我从不使用噪音这个词 245 00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:41,690 我使用小反转这个词 246 00:11:41,690 --> 00:11:45,490 因为噪音暗示着某些东西是纯粹随机发生的 247 00:11:45,490 --> 00:11:49,330 但是事实上没有什么是随机的 248 00:11:55,419 --> 00:11:59,700 发生的每一件事背后都和电脑程序有关 249 00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:02,139 市场上发生的一切事情 250 00:12:02,139 --> 00:12:04,759 都仅仅因为某些事情很小 251 00:12:06,149 --> 00:12:07,570 你选择忽略它 252 00:12:07,570 --> 00:12:09,389 并不意味着它是随机的 253 00:12:10,470 --> 00:12:11,570 它是真实的 254 00:12:11,570 --> 00:12:16,929 并且有足够的理由存在电脑程序下单交易 255 00:12:16,929 --> 00:12:18,769 因为他们看到了背后的逻辑 256 00:12:18,769 --> 00:12:20,330 尽管这些交易很小 257 00:12:20,330 --> 00:12:22,589 你永远不会考虑这样做 258 00:12:22,589 --> 00:12:23,708 一些小反转 259 00:12:23,708 --> 00:12:26,188 对于剥头皮交易者来说足够大 260 00:12:26,188 --> 00:12:28,528 不只是程序做的一两个ticks 261 00:12:28,528 --> 00:12:30,749 一两个pip的交易 262 00:12:31,409 --> 00:12:34,049 然而这仍然是小反转 263 00:12:34,049 --> 00:12:38,269 因为剥头皮交易者在进行这些交易并从中赚钱 264 00:12:38,269 --> 00:12:41,269 所以他们不可能从随机的波动中赚钱 265 00:12:41,269 --> 00:12:43,769 你只能根据逻辑来赚钱 266 00:12:43,769 --> 00:12:47,389 因此市场上不存在噪音 267 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:50,379 每当我听到有人谈论噪音时 268 00:12:50,379 --> 00:12:52,120 我认为他们是无知的 269 00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:55,279 他们要么不理解市场在做什么 270 00:12:55,279 --> 00:12:57,129 为什么这么做 271 00:12:57,870 --> 00:13:01,470 要么他们只是选择忽略市场的行为 272 00:13:02,879 --> 00:13:04,240 忽略是可以接受的 273 00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:05,659 如果时间周期过小 274 00:13:05,659 --> 00:13:07,179 你选择不交易他 275 00:13:07,179 --> 00:13:09,320 这非常正常 276 00:13:10,490 --> 00:13:11,929 但是说他是噪音 277 00:13:11,929 --> 00:13:13,509 并认为它是随机的 278 00:13:13,509 --> 00:13:15,009 那就是愚蠢的 279 00:13:15,009 --> 00:13:16,269 是无知的 280 00:13:16,269 --> 00:13:19,264 因为所有发生的事情都有原因 281 00:13:20,340 --> 00:13:22,659 我对噪音的定义小反转 282 00:13:23,700 --> 00:13:26,539 我更喜欢使用小反转这个词 283 00:13:29,639 --> 00:13:31,879 接下来我想讲一下 284 00:13:31,879 --> 00:13:35,840 从下降趋势到上涨趋势的波段交易 285 00:13:40,799 --> 00:13:43,139 当市场处于下降趋势时 286 00:13:43,139 --> 00:13:46,320 交易者假设每次反转尝试都是小反转 287 00:13:46,320 --> 00:13:49,629 也就是说他将成为雄奇或震荡区间 288 00:13:49,629 --> 00:13:51,129 他们会继续这样做 289 00:13:51,129 --> 00:13:54,210 直到看到一个特别强的小反转 290 00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:59,440 例如如果它突破了下降趋势线 291 00:14:00,169 --> 00:14:02,250 并上涨或横盘十根K线 292 00:14:02,250 --> 00:14:03,870 这就是多头在变强 293 00:14:03,870 --> 00:14:06,169 空头在变弱的信号 294 00:14:08,220 --> 00:14:10,840 这仍然是一个小反转 295 00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:12,669 但他警告交易者 296 00:14:12,669 --> 00:14:15,250 下降趋势很可能已经接近尾声 297 00:14:15,250 --> 00:14:19,309 并即将转变为震荡区间或上涨趋势 298 00:14:25,799 --> 00:14:28,720 如果小反转后下降趋势恢复 299 00:14:29,720 --> 00:14:32,220 交易者会怀疑下一次反转的尝试 300 00:14:32,220 --> 00:14:34,899 可能就不只是小反转那么简单 301 00:14:35,759 --> 00:14:37,379 可能会是一个大反转 302 00:14:37,379 --> 00:14:38,559 通常来说 303 00:14:38,559 --> 00:14:40,720 当你看到一个大反转的机会 304 00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:45,279 大约有40%的概率能够形成相反的趋势 305 00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:49,259 60%的概率 306 00:14:49,259 --> 00:14:52,960 市场保持横盘或下降趋势恢复 307 00:14:56,600 --> 00:14:59,799 这里有一个低点抬高的大反转 308 00:15:00,389 --> 00:15:01,889 一个较强的小反转 309 00:15:01,889 --> 00:15:04,149 他突破了下降通道 310 00:15:04,759 --> 00:15:07,298 现在下降趋势正在恢复 311 00:15:07,298 --> 00:15:10,158 交易者会准备好下一次反转的尝试 312 00:15:10,158 --> 00:15:13,519 而下一次反转是大反转的概率增加了 313 00:15:14,669 --> 00:15:19,110 有几段下跌低点略微抬高的双底 314 00:15:20,418 --> 00:15:22,298 还有一个不错的做多信号 315 00:15:22,298 --> 00:15:26,029 K线波段交易者会在这根K线的高点上方挂单 316 00:15:26,029 --> 00:15:29,169 买压注会有40%的概率会有大反转 317 00:15:29,169 --> 00:15:32,990 至少有几段上涨可以做波段交易 318 00:15:40,580 --> 00:15:42,440 来看相反的情况 319 00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:46,419 上涨趋势可能会反转为下降趋势 320 00:15:55,059 --> 00:15:57,409 当市场处于上涨趋势时 321 00:15:57,409 --> 00:15:59,649 交易者假设每次反转尝试 322 00:15:59,649 --> 00:16:02,049 都是会变成震荡区间或牛骑 323 00:16:02,049 --> 00:16:04,450 然后上涨趋势继续 324 00:16:05,250 --> 00:16:08,889 然而如果出现了一个足够强的小反转 325 00:16:08,889 --> 00:16:10,549 跌破上涨通道 326 00:16:10,549 --> 00:16:12,009 跌破趋势线 327 00:16:12,009 --> 00:16:14,970 尤其是如果他持续了十根或更多K线 328 00:16:14,970 --> 00:16:19,100 交易者就会开始思考上涨趋势是否即将结束 329 00:16:19,100 --> 00:16:22,090 并转变为震荡区间或下降趋势 330 00:16:22,090 --> 00:16:27,070 因此交易者会考虑在下一个反转时做空压住它 331 00:16:27,070 --> 00:16:30,318 可能是大反转变成相反的趋势 332 00:16:30,558 --> 00:16:33,339 从上涨趋势反转为下降趋势 333 00:16:33,339 --> 00:16:37,278 一般情况下概率是40% 334 00:16:39,399 --> 00:16:43,000 这里空投尝试制造一个高点降低的大反转 335 00:16:43,000 --> 00:16:45,240 第二做空入场点低移 336 00:16:45,240 --> 00:16:48,370 在这里大多数交易者不会在这里做空 337 00:16:48,370 --> 00:16:49,809 现在是第二次尝试 338 00:16:49,809 --> 00:16:52,568 并且高点交易交易者要么在那里卖出 339 00:16:52,568 --> 00:16:54,428 要么在这个阴线下方卖出 340 00:16:54,428 --> 00:16:56,870 我对这个大反转的担忧是 341 00:16:57,149 --> 00:16:59,509 前面的抛售只持续了五根K线 342 00:17:00,549 --> 00:17:02,889 通常这不足以制造一个大反转 343 00:17:02,889 --> 00:17:03,769 有可能 344 00:17:03,769 --> 00:17:05,220 但概率不高 345 00:17:05,220 --> 00:17:06,539 反弹很弱 346 00:17:06,539 --> 00:17:10,380 从高点的回调持续了10~15根K线 347 00:17:10,779 --> 00:17:12,819 也许有40%的概率 348 00:17:12,819 --> 00:17:13,980 这会形成大反转 349 00:17:15,339 --> 00:17:18,259 然而它只是导致了第二段下跌 350 00:17:18,259 --> 00:17:20,358 是一个更大的小反转而已 351 00:17:20,358 --> 00:17:22,338 有两段下跌的小反转 352 00:17:22,338 --> 00:17:23,778 一反弹 353 00:17:23,778 --> 00:17:26,250 二变成一个大的牛骑 354 00:17:26,250 --> 00:17:28,150 然后上涨趋势恢复 355 00:17:28,150 --> 00:17:30,279 然而在这一时刻 356 00:17:30,279 --> 00:17:33,819 从高点的回调持续了大约30根K线 357 00:17:33,819 --> 00:17:36,650 很多K线很长一段时间内 358 00:17:36,650 --> 00:17:38,609 多头失去了对市场的掌控 359 00:17:38,609 --> 00:17:40,170 市场处于平衡的状态 360 00:17:40,170 --> 00:17:41,730 交易者意识到这一点 361 00:17:41,730 --> 00:17:43,789 这是一个非常大的小反转 362 00:17:43,789 --> 00:17:45,430 注持续时间久 363 00:17:45,430 --> 00:17:47,890 因此但跌幅如果上涨趋势恢复 364 00:17:47,890 --> 00:17:49,430 并尝试再次反转 365 00:17:49,430 --> 00:17:52,470 大反转成功的概率就更大了 366 00:17:57,539 --> 00:18:00,259 他们会考虑卖出这个突破足够强 367 00:18:00,259 --> 00:18:03,740 所以大概率至少会有小的第二段上涨 368 00:18:03,740 --> 00:18:05,279 在第二段上涨之后 369 00:18:05,279 --> 00:18:08,960 交易者会考虑做空高点略微抬高的大反转机会 370 00:18:10,039 --> 00:18:12,380 这是一个合理的波段做空机会 371 00:18:12,380 --> 00:18:14,640 你也可以在这根K线下方做空 372 00:18:14,640 --> 00:18:15,720 D1在这里 373 00:18:15,720 --> 00:18:16,859 D2在这里 374 00:18:16,859 --> 00:18:18,859 然后是空头突破之后的反弹 375 00:18:18,859 --> 00:18:19,888 连续的阴线 376 00:18:19,888 --> 00:18:22,388 大概率价格还会至少再跌一些 377 00:18:22,388 --> 00:18:25,209 40%的概率会有一个下跌的波段 378 00:18:25,209 --> 00:18:27,229 这意味着至少几段下跌 379 00:18:27,229 --> 00:18:31,089 通常当一个波段交易者寻找做空机会时 380 00:18:31,089 --> 00:18:32,710 在大反转之后 381 00:18:32,710 --> 00:18:35,390 他期望至少有几段下跌 382 00:18:35,559 --> 00:18:39,759 他还期望下跌的反转持续20根或更多K线 383 00:18:40,259 --> 00:18:43,539 并且利润超过两倍的实际风险 384 00:18:44,869 --> 00:18:46,150 在这个案例中 385 00:18:46,150 --> 00:18:49,029 利润是实际风险的很多倍 386 00:18:54,180 --> 00:18:57,400 波段交易可以是下降趋势到上市 387 00:18:57,400 --> 00:18:58,460 上涨到下跌 388 00:18:58,460 --> 00:19:00,359 可以是震荡区间的突破 389 00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:03,880 这里有一个震荡区间和多头突破 390 00:19:04,829 --> 00:19:07,250 这是一个潜在的波段交易机会 391 00:19:07,250 --> 00:19:10,430 至少有几段上涨作为最低目标 392 00:19:12,109 --> 00:19:13,730 突破大阳线的收盘 393 00:19:13,730 --> 00:19:16,710 高于过去20或30根K线的高点 394 00:19:16,710 --> 00:19:19,369 继续上涨的概率非常大 395 00:19:19,369 --> 00:19:22,569 然后是跟随K线突破K线的后一根K线 396 00:19:22,569 --> 00:19:25,569 也是一根收在高位的阳线 397 00:19:26,039 --> 00:19:28,559 而且收盘价高于突破K线的最高点 398 00:19:28,559 --> 00:19:32,990 另外跟随K线的开盘价高于突破K线的收盘价 399 00:19:32,990 --> 00:19:34,109 注急跳 400 00:19:34,109 --> 00:19:36,450 这说明这根K线收盘的一瞬间 401 00:19:36,450 --> 00:19:39,069 很多交易者点击市价买入 402 00:19:39,069 --> 00:19:42,509 所以有很多交易者尝试在这根K线收盘时 403 00:19:42,509 --> 00:19:43,470 市价买入 404 00:19:43,470 --> 00:19:47,108 因此这根K线的开盘价高于这根K线的收入 405 00:19:47,108 --> 00:19:48,868 这是买弹非常急切的信号 406 00:19:48,868 --> 00:19:51,759 这增加了向上达到某个MM目标位 407 00:19:51,759 --> 00:19:53,359 和至少两段上涨的概率 408 00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:54,799 第一段回调 409 00:19:54,799 --> 00:19:55,319 第二段 410 00:19:55,319 --> 00:19:58,000 后面还有第三段上涨 411 00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:04,980 几乎所有的反转都是从突破开始的 412 00:20:04,980 --> 00:20:07,460 尽管突破并不总是非常明显 413 00:20:07,460 --> 00:20:09,839 有时他们很小 414 00:20:15,400 --> 00:20:17,660 反转本身就是一种突破 415 00:20:17,660 --> 00:20:19,859 尝试恢复下降趋势 416 00:20:19,859 --> 00:20:23,420 下降趋势和几段上涨幅一回调 417 00:20:23,420 --> 00:20:27,069 二现在空头尝试再次向下突破 418 00:20:27,069 --> 00:20:29,710 然而市场反转上涨 419 00:20:29,710 --> 00:20:31,009 尤其是这根大阳线 420 00:20:31,009 --> 00:20:31,930 它完全反转了 421 00:20:31,930 --> 00:20:33,359 空头突破 422 00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:36,400 每次反转都是一种突破 423 00:20:36,759 --> 00:20:38,940 每根大阴线都是一次突破 424 00:20:38,940 --> 00:20:40,380 也是抛售高潮 425 00:20:40,380 --> 00:20:42,799 注每根大阳线是次一次突破 426 00:20:42,799 --> 00:20:44,679 也是抢购高潮 427 00:20:44,959 --> 00:20:45,798 大阳线 428 00:20:45,798 --> 00:20:47,179 这是一次突破 429 00:20:47,179 --> 00:20:49,118 它可能是上涨趋势 430 00:20:49,118 --> 00:20:52,278 或者至少是上涨波段的开始 431 00:20:53,140 --> 00:20:56,940 所有的反转都至少从一个小的突破开始 432 00:21:00,079 --> 00:21:01,839 这是一个多头突破 433 00:21:01,839 --> 00:21:04,880 你可以说它突破了下降趋势线 434 00:21:05,000 --> 00:21:06,920 他突破了一个震荡区间 435 00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:08,759 他突破了这根大阴线 436 00:21:08,759 --> 00:21:12,359 空投放弃了希望趋势恢复向下的空投 437 00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:13,200 之前在这里卖 438 00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:17,549 现在他们买入回补多头更加有信心 439 00:21:17,549 --> 00:21:20,609 这是一个低点抬高的大反转 440 00:21:21,069 --> 00:21:23,049 至少会有第二段上涨 441 00:21:23,049 --> 00:21:26,138 一旦他们看到突破K线和跟随K线 442 00:21:26,138 --> 00:21:28,338 他们假设这是第一段上涨 443 00:21:28,338 --> 00:21:31,719 并且交易者会在第一次回调下跌时买入 444 00:21:31,719 --> 00:21:33,699 并期望还有一段上涨 445 00:21:33,699 --> 00:21:35,318 这是一个放弃K线 446 00:21:35,318 --> 00:21:37,499 空投正在放弃做空的空头 447 00:21:37,499 --> 00:21:39,630 对这个阳线感到失望 448 00:21:39,630 --> 00:21:41,470 他们希望继续下跌 449 00:21:41,470 --> 00:21:43,529 但当市场开始上涨时 450 00:21:43,529 --> 00:21:45,769 他们买入回补止损 451 00:21:45,769 --> 00:21:48,390 他们在这根K线上放弃了 452 00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:54,619 每个趋势都在一个通道内 453 00:21:54,619 --> 00:21:57,839 所以每个反转都会突破一个通道 454 00:21:59,940 --> 00:22:01,730 大阳线向上反转 455 00:22:01,730 --> 00:22:04,690 某个地方一定有一个有很多画通道的方法 456 00:22:04,690 --> 00:22:07,029 一种是使用这个高点和这个高点 457 00:22:07,029 --> 00:22:08,619 然后做它的平行线 458 00:22:08,619 --> 00:22:11,819 然后把尽可能多的K线包含进去 459 00:22:11,819 --> 00:22:13,819 那么这个就变成了一个突刺 460 00:22:13,819 --> 00:22:15,180 这是下降通道 461 00:22:15,180 --> 00:22:17,380 这是多头突破 462 00:22:17,809 --> 00:22:19,190 大阳线反转 463 00:22:19,190 --> 00:22:22,529 你知道他肯定突破了某个下降通道 464 00:22:29,700 --> 00:22:31,000 每当有突破 465 00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:33,140 每当有大的趋势K线 466 00:22:33,140 --> 00:22:35,740 尤其是后续有跟随的时候 467 00:22:35,740 --> 00:22:38,220 说明交易者同意目前的价格是错误的 468 00:22:38,220 --> 00:22:39,579 他必须快速移动 469 00:22:39,579 --> 00:22:41,319 找到一个新的公平价格 470 00:22:41,319 --> 00:22:44,599 无论是突破还是反转都一样 471 00:22:44,599 --> 00:22:46,160 你以同样的方式交易 472 00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:48,970 他们这是一个震荡区间上方的多头突破 473 00:22:48,970 --> 00:22:51,430 这是一个下降通道上方的多头突破吗 474 00:22:51,430 --> 00:22:53,789 这是向上反转这个下降趋势吗 475 00:22:53,789 --> 00:22:55,779 你怎么看待他都无所谓 476 00:22:55,779 --> 00:22:57,240 市场正在上涨 477 00:22:57,240 --> 00:22:59,388 所有这些的本质都还是突破 478 00:22:59,388 --> 00:23:00,308 也是反转 479 00:23:02,348 --> 00:23:04,250 大阴线收在最低 480 00:23:04,529 --> 00:23:06,309 多头尝试在这里筑底 481 00:23:06,309 --> 00:23:08,319 但是被跌破了 482 00:23:08,480 --> 00:23:10,720 这意味着价格太高了 483 00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:14,279 市场必须下跌才能找到更多买家 484 00:23:16,700 --> 00:23:18,640 突破价格在下跌 485 00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:19,920 这是一次反转 486 00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:21,359 它也是一次突破 487 00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:22,579 价格在上涨 488 00:23:22,579 --> 00:23:23,680 价格太低 489 00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:25,279 价格太高 490 00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:36,599 下降趋势下降通道高点和低点都在不断降低 491 00:23:39,619 --> 00:23:42,140 如果下降趋势要变成上涨趋势 492 00:23:42,140 --> 00:23:44,240 它必须突破下降通道 493 00:23:44,240 --> 00:23:47,500 然后他必须开始制造一系列更高的低点 494 00:23:47,500 --> 00:23:49,819 低点下一个低点略微抬 495 00:23:49,819 --> 00:23:51,000 再次略微抬高 496 00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:52,180 然后大阳线突破 497 00:23:52,180 --> 00:23:54,279 这看起来像是上涨趋势的开始 498 00:23:54,279 --> 00:23:57,059 实际上它确实是 499 00:24:00,380 --> 00:24:02,880 一旦下降通道被向上突破 500 00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:06,799 交易者就会观察市场是否尝试恢复下跌 501 00:24:06,799 --> 00:24:08,339 但是恢复失败 502 00:24:08,339 --> 00:24:10,589 然后反转上涨 503 00:24:10,789 --> 00:24:12,490 如果确实是这样 504 00:24:12,490 --> 00:24:15,720 那就会变成低点抬高的大反转 505 00:24:15,880 --> 00:24:18,440 在恢复下降趋势失败之后 506 00:24:18,440 --> 00:24:21,650 多头会寻找反转上涨的买入机会 507 00:24:21,650 --> 00:24:23,990 空头尝试恢复向下趋势 508 00:24:23,990 --> 00:24:26,299 然而出现了一根大阳线 509 00:24:26,299 --> 00:24:27,200 空头被套牢 510 00:24:27,200 --> 00:24:28,759 在一笔亏损的交易中 511 00:24:28,759 --> 00:24:30,279 而多头很高兴 512 00:24:30,279 --> 00:24:32,789 他们抓住了上涨的开始 513 00:24:33,069 --> 00:24:34,829 至少会有两段上涨 514 00:24:34,829 --> 00:24:37,509 一回调二 515 00:24:40,140 --> 00:24:41,299 空头突破 516 00:24:41,299 --> 00:24:43,009 但跟随不好 517 00:24:43,250 --> 00:24:46,210 多头会在这根K线的高点上方买入压住 518 00:24:46,210 --> 00:24:48,880 这是一个低点抬高的大反转 519 00:24:49,039 --> 00:24:51,539 他们希望这是上涨趋势的开始 520 00:24:51,539 --> 00:24:53,720 低点会越来越高 521 00:24:59,759 --> 00:25:01,150 在两张图中 522 00:25:01,150 --> 00:25:02,390 市场都在下跌 523 00:25:02,390 --> 00:25:04,869 显然市场认为目前的价格太高了 524 00:25:04,869 --> 00:25:08,130 必须快速下跌来找到一个新的公平价格 525 00:25:08,130 --> 00:25:11,039 它是反转还是跌破震荡区间 526 00:25:11,039 --> 00:25:12,569 重要吗 527 00:25:12,569 --> 00:25:13,589 不重要 528 00:25:13,589 --> 00:25:15,009 你以同样的方式交易 529 00:25:15,009 --> 00:25:16,309 他们市场告诉你 530 00:25:16,309 --> 00:25:17,329 因为本质是一样的 531 00:25:17,329 --> 00:25:18,500 定价错误 532 00:25:18,500 --> 00:25:21,079 震荡区间空头突破 533 00:25:21,079 --> 00:25:22,440 你应该卖出做空 534 00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:24,059 因为市场快速下跌 535 00:25:24,059 --> 00:25:26,460 价格大概率还会更低 536 00:25:29,019 --> 00:25:32,119 这个案例上涨趋势被反转 537 00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:34,380 你以完全相同的方式去交易 538 00:25:34,380 --> 00:25:35,289 它 539 00:25:35,289 --> 00:25:37,069 价格显然是错误的 540 00:25:37,069 --> 00:25:38,130 空头突破 541 00:25:38,130 --> 00:25:40,009 这里也是一次空头突破 542 00:25:40,009 --> 00:25:41,089 右边是反转 543 00:25:41,089 --> 00:25:42,909 先上涨再下跌 544 00:25:42,909 --> 00:25:43,788 这并不重要 545 00:25:43,788 --> 00:25:45,960 你以同样的方式去交易 546 00:25:46,279 --> 00:25:47,960 你在阴线的收盘卖出 547 00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:49,799 做空市场告诉你 548 00:25:49,799 --> 00:25:50,779 价格太高了 549 00:25:50,779 --> 00:25:52,349 它会下跌 550 00:25:52,349 --> 00:25:53,670 它正在下跌 551 00:25:53,670 --> 00:25:56,430 想要找到新的公平价格 552 00:25:58,299 --> 00:26:01,720 到底是跌破震荡区间还是空头反转 553 00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:02,339 无所谓 554 00:26:02,339 --> 00:26:03,539 以同样的方式交易 555 00:26:03,539 --> 00:26:04,660 他们 556 00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:15,779 这里的下降趋势看起来和这里的下降趋势一样 557 00:26:15,779 --> 00:26:18,279 前期发生了什么并不重要 558 00:26:18,279 --> 00:26:19,759 你以同样的方式交易 559 00:26:19,759 --> 00:26:23,400 他们市场在寻找一个新的更低的价格 560 00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:27,799 有时反转只需要一根K线就会变得很明显 561 00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:33,559 下降趋势三次向下 562 00:26:33,559 --> 00:26:36,140 推动一连续的抛售高潮 563 00:26:36,140 --> 00:26:37,259 这里有一点 564 00:26:37,259 --> 00:26:39,109 这里更多更多 565 00:26:39,109 --> 00:26:41,450 很可能跌的太快太猛 566 00:26:41,450 --> 00:26:43,910 会有一定程度的反转 567 00:26:44,329 --> 00:26:46,650 这里有一根非常大的大阳线 568 00:26:46,650 --> 00:26:48,650 收在最高完全反转了 569 00:26:48,650 --> 00:26:52,970 最后一根大阴线大概率会有几段上涨 570 00:26:53,859 --> 00:26:57,160 这样的单一K线足以让交易者相信 571 00:26:57,160 --> 00:26:59,299 反转正在发生 572 00:27:02,799 --> 00:27:04,460 强势的多头反转 573 00:27:04,460 --> 00:27:05,740 三推楔形底 574 00:27:05,740 --> 00:27:08,680 交易者期望目前市场处于单边上涨 575 00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:09,279 只能做 576 00:27:09,279 --> 00:27:10,970 随着新的阳线不断出现 577 00:27:10,970 --> 00:27:12,849 交易者变得更加有信心 578 00:27:12,849 --> 00:27:15,730 会涨到某个mm目标位 579 00:27:19,380 --> 00:27:21,700 有时候一根K线就反转了 580 00:27:21,700 --> 00:27:24,880 有时候需要很多根K线才能清楚的看到 581 00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:26,470 市场已经反转 582 00:27:26,470 --> 00:27:28,670 这是这个下降趋势的起跌点 583 00:27:28,670 --> 00:27:32,769 然而最初这只是上涨趋势中的回调 584 00:27:33,009 --> 00:27:34,349 回调不断发展 585 00:27:34,349 --> 00:27:36,679 持续了20根K线或更多 586 00:27:36,679 --> 00:27:39,439 在某个时刻变成了无尽的回调 587 00:27:39,439 --> 00:27:42,659 回调不断发展变成了反转 588 00:27:42,858 --> 00:27:44,778 回调持续的K线越多 589 00:27:44,778 --> 00:27:46,499 市场就越接近50对五 590 00:27:46,499 --> 00:27:48,499 市场恢复上涨的概率下降 591 00:27:48,499 --> 00:27:51,578 变得和反转下跌的概率相同 592 00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:55,339 通常在大约20根K线之后 593 00:27:55,339 --> 00:27:56,960 概率变得相同 594 00:27:56,960 --> 00:28:01,099 这是一个从上涨趋势到下降趋势的过渡 595 00:28:01,099 --> 00:28:03,400 这是下降趋势的早期阶段 596 00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:04,960 它仍然是一个牛旗 597 00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:06,380 也是一个震荡区间 598 00:28:06,380 --> 00:28:10,230 然而最终发现他直到看到趋势大阴线 599 00:28:10,230 --> 00:28:12,190 下降趋势才变得明显 600 00:28:12,190 --> 00:28:13,009 在这里 601 00:28:13,009 --> 00:28:16,069 然后这里也许这里连续20 602 00:28:16,069 --> 00:28:18,119 市场已经明显反转了 603 00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:20,380 还会继续有至少几段下跌 604 00:28:20,380 --> 00:28:24,359 一反弹二或者二 605 00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:29,839 抛物线楔形顶123 606 00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:32,500 然后回调5~10根K线 607 00:28:32,500 --> 00:28:34,440 回调发展到了20根K线 608 00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:35,160 无尽的回调 609 00:28:35,160 --> 00:28:36,230 你必须考虑 610 00:28:36,230 --> 00:28:37,589 这不再是回调那么简单 611 00:28:37,589 --> 00:28:38,970 这是一个震荡区间 612 00:28:38,970 --> 00:28:40,529 向下突破的概率 613 00:28:40,529 --> 00:28:43,950 变得和恢复上涨趋势的概率相同 614 00:28:45,319 --> 00:28:47,960 完全反转了左边的上涨 615 00:28:52,779 --> 00:28:54,579 下降通道牛起 616 00:28:54,579 --> 00:28:56,259 但是随着K线越来越多 617 00:28:56,259 --> 00:28:58,200 它就变成了一个无尽的回调 618 00:28:58,200 --> 00:29:00,380 一旦发展到大约20根K线 619 00:29:00,380 --> 00:29:02,500 你必须考虑空头 620 00:29:02,500 --> 00:29:06,420 突破的概率和上涨趋势恢复的概率相同 621 00:29:12,720 --> 00:29:14,500 空头需要两样东西 622 00:29:14,500 --> 00:29:17,539 突破的阴线以及跟随K最好是一个大阴线 623 00:29:17,539 --> 00:29:18,079 收在一半 624 00:29:18,079 --> 00:29:19,339 最好是收在最低 625 00:29:19,339 --> 00:29:21,740 并且后一根K线也是阴线 626 00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:25,400 如果空投成功的制造出大阴线加跟随 627 00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:29,400 那么至少会跌到某他变成了测量型缺口 628 00:29:30,239 --> 00:29:32,878 大阴线收在一半以下 629 00:29:33,460 --> 00:29:35,680 跟随音线也收在一半左右 630 00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:36,460 是合格的 631 00:29:36,460 --> 00:29:37,619 跟随 632 00:29:38,729 --> 00:29:40,648 多头放弃了空投 633 00:29:40,648 --> 00:29:41,888 看到多头放弃 634 00:29:41,888 --> 00:29:43,489 于是继续大量卖出 635 00:29:43,489 --> 00:29:45,969 期望至少会有两段下跌 636 00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:49,819 下降趋势反弹 637 00:29:49,819 --> 00:29:52,559 这看上去像是一个熊奇 638 00:29:53,579 --> 00:29:55,619 然而多头向上突破了熊奇 639 00:29:56,740 --> 00:29:59,960 这又是无尽的回调反弹大阳线 640 00:29:59,960 --> 00:30:03,880 后续有跟随K线上涨通道 641 00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:05,549 这是一个雄奇 642 00:30:05,549 --> 00:30:07,630 空头尝试向下跌破 643 00:30:07,630 --> 00:30:09,589 再次尝试向下跌破 644 00:30:09,589 --> 00:30:10,349 但是失败 645 00:30:10,349 --> 00:30:12,589 空头反过来突破了雄奇的高点 646 00:30:12,589 --> 00:30:15,029 熊奇被向上突破 647 00:30:16,660 --> 00:30:19,740 这会导致价格涨到上方的mm这个低点 648 00:30:19,740 --> 00:30:20,920 测试了这个高点 649 00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:22,680 很可能是测量型缺口 650 00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:25,200 然后上涨到了MM目标位突破 651 00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:27,759 在这里和这里非常明显 652 00:30:31,480 --> 00:30:34,319 熊奇中出现了较大的阳线 653 00:30:36,059 --> 00:30:40,160 来越多的交易者开始相信空投即将失败 654 00:30:40,319 --> 00:30:43,279 价格会突破熊奇去到MM目标位置 655 00:30:43,279 --> 00:30:46,569 现在有连续三根阳线收在高位 656 00:30:46,930 --> 00:30:49,279 空头尝试反转下跌 657 00:30:49,279 --> 00:30:52,180 但回调的低点保持在突破点的上方 658 00:30:52,180 --> 00:30:54,539 所以这很可能是测量型缺口 659 00:30:54,539 --> 00:30:57,759 有向上的MM目标位 660 00:30:58,880 --> 00:31:01,720 非常大的阳线还会继续上涨 661 00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:04,420 跟随K线还会继续上涨 662 00:31:04,420 --> 00:31:06,440 熊奇被向上突破 663 00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:07,720 在这里突破 664 00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:08,900 在这里突破 665 00:31:08,900 --> 00:31:09,940 在这里突破 666 00:31:09,940 --> 00:31:12,640 这里是突破最明显的时候 667 00:31:15,539 --> 00:31:18,140 这意味着空投正在放弃 668 00:31:18,140 --> 00:31:19,339 他们终于放弃了 669 00:31:19,339 --> 00:31:20,920 我称之为放弃K线 670 00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:21,900 两根放弃K线 671 00:31:21,900 --> 00:31:23,700 空投正在放弃 672 00:31:27,940 --> 00:31:31,000 这节课的开始我讲了反转的定义 673 00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:33,940 广义的反转指市场周期的变化 674 00:31:33,940 --> 00:31:35,799 从震荡区间到趋势 675 00:31:35,799 --> 00:31:38,440 或者从趋势到震荡区间 676 00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:41,759 我通常用反转义词来形容 677 00:31:41,759 --> 00:31:44,359 一个趋势变成相反的趋势 678 00:31:46,460 --> 00:31:50,740 如何区分小反转和大反转非常重要 679 00:31:51,339 --> 00:31:53,339 小反转只是几根K线 680 00:31:53,339 --> 00:31:55,660 三根最多5~10根K线 681 00:31:55,660 --> 00:31:58,019 并不会导致相反的趋势 682 00:31:58,180 --> 00:31:59,920 如果一个结构足够大 683 00:31:59,920 --> 00:32:01,630 十或20根K线 684 00:32:01,630 --> 00:32:04,509 它有更大的概率会导致相反的趋势 685 00:32:04,509 --> 00:32:07,210 但那时我会称之为大反转 686 00:32:07,210 --> 00:32:09,910 大反转需要更大的结构 687 00:32:11,068 --> 00:32:13,169 反转通常从突破开始 688 00:32:13,169 --> 00:32:15,709 尽管突破有时很小 689 00:32:18,859 --> 00:32:20,180 我是阿尔布鲁克斯 690 00:32:20,180 --> 00:32:22,819 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程反转的 691 00:32:22,819 --> 00:32:24,960 第一节课就讲到这里
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