川总也很无奈啊！NaNa说美股(2026.05.18)

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说

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美股今天是5月18号周一

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美股本周开始震荡

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受半导体与特斯拉拖累

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标普与纳指震荡收跌

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道指小幅收涨

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市场呢进入本周关键财报前的空盘整期哈

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在英伟达财报出来之前

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投资者普遍表现出不愿在高位下注的谨慎心态

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交易员正密切关注油价与债券收益率

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同时呢等待中东冲突的进一步进展

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原油在早盘冲高后有所回落

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一定程度上减弱了美股的杀跌动能

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但是没能扭转成长股的整体颓势嗯

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据阿EXCE斯援引知情人士报道称

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伊朗已经向美国提交了一份更新版方案

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相较于上一个版本只做了一些象征性的微调

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并且没有就其核计划做出任何实质性让步

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川普对此很不满意哈

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并且暗示

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如果伊朗拒不改变立场的话

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将会采取更强硬的行动

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包括重启军事行动

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股指盘中呢震荡走低

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到了下午三点突然短线拉升

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因为川普称由于与伊朗展开新的严肃的谈判

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推迟

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原定于明天对伊朗的军事打击

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他要不说这句话

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咱们都不知道

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原来美国计划明天要打伊朗的哈

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其实明天打不打的不重要

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重要的是川普这个话中呢透露出一个意思

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就是现在美国不会特地等周末了哈

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交易日也随时可能开打

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所以大家要警惕这个短线日内市场的波动呀

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川普说唉本来很想打了

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但是呢卡塔尔

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沙特

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阿拉伯和阿联酋哭着喊着请求我们先别打

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再谈谈呃

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看在他们的面子上

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暂时就不打了

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不过他表示哈

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已经只是美军做好全面大规模打击的准备呃

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以防没能达成可接受的协议

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随时可以掀桌子

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所以这个啊风险还是悬在头顶上哈

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沙特呢可能是羡慕川普与疑懒天天合作炒股

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所以也加入了划线团队啊

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今天范消息称

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伊朗提出有条件的将浓缩铀已转移到俄罗斯嗯

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而不是放在美国同意长期冻结和计划

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但是不彻底拆除核设施

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那不废话吗

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放在俄罗斯手里面

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和这个不交出去

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放在伊朗自己手里有什么区别呀

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伊朗官方媒体那边放出的消息呢

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真真假假称

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美国允许伊朗在国际原子能机构的监督下

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维持有限的和平核活动

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在伊朗被冻结资产的问题上呢

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华盛顿同意按照分阶段的时间表

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解冻其中1/4的资产

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而且美国还同意在谈判期间

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对伊朗的石油制裁实施暂时性豁免

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但是这一番说辞立即遭到了美国官员的否认哈

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没有答应伊朗这些事情

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伊朗革命卫队不仅要在霍尔木兹海峡开收费站

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还扬言

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有权对所有经过霍尔木兹海峡的海底光纤电缆

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收管理费呃

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据说目前霍尔木兹海峡的海底通信网络

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每天承载规模

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超过10万亿美元的全球金融交易数据

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一旦这个海上通信节点受到干扰的话

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可能对地区乃至整个全球经济

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金融以及能源供应链

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带来每天数千万甚至数亿美元的

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直接和间接损失

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川普这个手里牌也不多呀

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好像所以才一推再推

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每次说要打

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然后又推迟

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实在是也没什么可打的了

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你要不进行这个地面的行动

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一难不交出这个核设施来

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然后死卡

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那美国能怎么办呀

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10年期美的收益率呢日内冲高回落

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在上周五

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期美债TLT的交易量达到了过去一个月

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单日平均交易量的三倍以上

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而且成交极度偏向看跌

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期权压住美债收益率呢将会出现剧烈飙升

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和TLT随后暴跌

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其中一位交易员买入了1万5000仓

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今年6月到期

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执行价为75美元的看跌期权都很短期哈

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花费了200万美元

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压轴TLT

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在6月17号之前将会再跌11%

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那那个10年期美债收益得飙到5%了

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与此同时呢

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随着通胀回升

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资金也蜂拥挤入大宗商品ETF

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据谨慎投资透露

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上周

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交易员向景顺大宗商品指数ETF

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DBC注入了近8600万美元

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创2022年以来最大的单日资金净流入

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自冲突爆发以来哈

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这一款ETF已经低调的悄悄的涨了约40%

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三呃

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市场对通胀对冲工具的需求一直居高不下

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这几个趋势在过去几周内明显的加速

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债市的动荡呢

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也开始波及到股市

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交易员对美伊停火的脆弱性

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开始重新计价

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Qq

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自4月初以来的陡峭上升趋势线哈

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上周我们就说过呃

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未来几天就可能这个跌破这条线了

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但是他守住了10日均线

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说明了多头在进行顽强的抵抗

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而且空头也不是很有信心

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市场在连续数周的狂热之后

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就是有一些资金开始在高位进行

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防御性的获利了结

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但是空头还没有真正发力

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标普500指数

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今天盘中呢在7400点附近反复的拉锯

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收盘

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同样守住了10日均线

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而这也是这一轮涨势的波段支撑哈

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之前每次回调都没有跌破过10日均线

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目前呢指数处于高位震荡后的结构性回调

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尽管嗯在进行防守

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但是今天能够破位之后立即拉回

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说明多头还没有撤退哈

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起码没有大规模的撤退

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在上周五期权集中到期之后呢

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美股市场的减震系就是净总干吧

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从历史高点的16.4亿美元暴跌到7.5

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3亿美元缩水了一半

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这意味着接下来市场的结构变薄了哈

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行情不会那么平稳

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而是容易大起大落

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7500点

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目前呢仍然是最大的看涨期权强

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其次是7600点

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下方7300~7280是最强的职称

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七千二百八十十伽马翻转点

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也就是说只要指数不跌破这个7280点

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市场依然处于做市商买入回补的保护环境中

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呃就是呃这个不会发生那种失控性的暴跌嗯

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英伟达的财报是关键变量

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将会决定市场后面向上跳还是向下坠落

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由于投资者买入了大量看跌期权

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以防止英伟达暴雷

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这种极端的比例意味着

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如果市场对每周三因为打财报反应积极的话

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而那些put要平仓

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可能会引发剧烈的空头挤压哈

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带动指数重回上方

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慈溪位就是七千五七千六区域

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反过来的话

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若财报公布之后出现了利好出境走势哈

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由于指数下方没有足够的对冲力量来支撑

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那后面跌势可能就会非常剧烈

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道指呢表现相对稳健

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主要得益于道指成分股中能源板块的支撑

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以及传统蓝筹股的避险买盘

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缓解了成长股下跌带来的这个心理冲击

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而且道指自4月中旬以来

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一直高位震荡

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涨的没有标普与纳指那么猛

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所以获利盘兑现的压力也相对不大

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六破13F曝光呃

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与去年四季度持仓相比

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今年一季度它的持仓最大变化呢

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就是全力压住AI基础设施产业链

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比如电力

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不是c EG vs t那种公用事业电力股哈

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而是燃料电池现场发电

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那些小型股

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像VE嗯RIOT等等

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第二呢是存储

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也没有选巨头美光科技

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而是选了SNDK

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还有第三这个算力租赁同样没有选择甲骨文啦

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或者亚马逊那些超大规模云厂商和模型公司

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而是选了新一代算命承包商

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还有那些矿企转型杠AI数据中心的

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比如call wave i r e n a p l DC o r

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ZCLSK等等

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其次是他清仓了官通信哈LITECOHR呃

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但是光通信板块在今年一季度大涨哎

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所以他这个是属于卖飞了

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第三呢是它的这个显卡与半导体龙头

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比如英伟达博通AAMD

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台积电阿斯麦等等

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仓位很低

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加起来还不够一个COVI里仓位的零头

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而且他还给这些巨头们呢都挂了大量的put嗯

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单说他买put这个行为并不是

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我觉得单纯看空AI哈

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而是用一小部分的钱来保护他的账户嗯

212
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英特它在去年四季度有7.4

213
00:09:43,419 --> 00:09:45,500
7亿美元的看涨期权

214
00:09:45,500 --> 00:09:49,779
结果一今年一季度把看涨期权全都给清仓掉了

215
00:09:49,779 --> 00:09:51,980
就只保留了小额普通股

216
00:09:51,980 --> 00:09:54,299
大约893万美元嗯

217
00:09:54,299 --> 00:09:57,690
大家都知道英特尔今年二季度那是疯涨啊

218
00:09:57,690 --> 00:09:59,029
这个翻了三倍

219
00:09:59,029 --> 00:10:00,850
如果他的call没有清零的话

220
00:10:00,850 --> 00:10:02,519
那真的是要赚爆了

221
00:10:02,519 --> 00:10:03,200
可惜没有

222
00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:03,919
如果哈哈

223
00:10:03,919 --> 00:10:07,440
只能说还好保留了一部分的正股仓位

224
00:10:07,440 --> 00:10:08,970
没有完全的卖飞

225
00:10:08,970 --> 00:10:12,610
他的这个持仓结构呢表明它压住的是AI

226
00:10:12,610 --> 00:10:13,669
基建的红利

227
00:10:13,669 --> 00:10:18,740
已经从卖铲子淘金的那一批龙头们

228
00:10:18,740 --> 00:10:21,299
转到了下面这个挖矿的

229
00:10:21,299 --> 00:10:22,039
修路的

230
00:10:22,039 --> 00:10:23,100
拉电线的

231
00:10:23,100 --> 00:10:24,840
盖收费站的那些了

232
00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:27,820
不过这是他Q1的持仓哈

233
00:10:27,820 --> 00:10:30,500
说不定我们现在Q2它持仓已经变了

234
00:10:30,500 --> 00:10:33,710
所以其实也很难完全抄他的作业啦

235
00:10:33,710 --> 00:10:35,389
只是作为参考嗯

236
00:10:35,389 --> 00:10:36,429
其他个股方面

237
00:10:36,429 --> 00:10:37,990
存储概念股

238
00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:43,259
消息面上的

239
00:10:43,259 --> 00:10:45,960
公司管理层在摩根大通会议上的发言

240
00:10:45,960 --> 00:10:47,700
引发了投资者担忧

241
00:10:47,700 --> 00:10:51,500
面对存储芯片日益飙升的这个需求哈

242
00:10:51,500 --> 00:10:54,820
公司CEO在被问及是否计划扩大产能的时候

243
00:10:54,820 --> 00:10:55,299
表示

244
00:10:55,299 --> 00:10:57,679
建造新的工厂将会耗时

245
00:10:57,679 --> 00:11:01,970
而且可能导致公司呢最终面临产能过剩的局面

246
00:11:01,970 --> 00:11:03,490
他强调呃

247
00:11:03,490 --> 00:11:07,169
通过技术升级来提高产能和生产效率

248
00:11:07,169 --> 00:11:10,399
而并非投资建设新的更多的工厂

249
00:11:10,399 --> 00:11:14,620
他的这一方发言触碰了资本市场最敏感的神经

250
00:11:14,620 --> 00:11:17,620
就是预期缺位和供给天花板

251
00:11:17,620 --> 00:11:18,779
因为在此之前呢

252
00:11:18,779 --> 00:11:23,039
投资者原本期望这个STX能够借着AI的东风

253
00:11:23,039 --> 00:11:24,179
大举扩张的哈

254
00:11:24,179 --> 00:11:28,590
来承接数据中心对海量存储的这个需求

255
00:11:28,590 --> 00:11:30,599
可是公司不打算扩产

256
00:11:30,599 --> 00:11:33,119
那市场立即就将其解读为

257
00:11:33,119 --> 00:11:36,110
即便未来存储需求再大

258
00:11:36,110 --> 00:11:39,009
那这个STX的上限也被锁死了呀

259
00:11:39,009 --> 00:11:40,568
只能这个卖那么多

260
00:11:40,568 --> 00:11:43,568
打破了公司能够通过大幅扩张来

261
00:11:43,568 --> 00:11:45,480
爆发式增长的趋势

262
00:11:45,480 --> 00:11:48,639
而且呢CEO提到担心产能过剩诶

263
00:11:48,639 --> 00:11:50,730
这再一次提醒了投资者

264
00:11:50,730 --> 00:11:55,330
就是对存储行业根深蒂固的周期性阴影哈

265
00:11:55,330 --> 00:11:59,450
时常意识到半导体依然还是一个强周期行业

266
00:11:59,450 --> 00:12:01,970
而并非永恒增长的机器

267
00:12:01,970 --> 00:12:03,860
而且也让投资者担心

268
00:12:03,860 --> 00:12:05,860
TX在于西部数据

269
00:12:05,860 --> 00:12:09,700
就WDC还有美光科技等对手的竞争中呢

270
00:12:09,700 --> 00:12:11,279
被抢占市场份额

271
00:12:11,279 --> 00:12:13,179
除了CEO这一方发言

272
00:12:13,179 --> 00:12:16,919
今天其实还有几个外部因素放大了这个跌幅

273
00:12:20,240 --> 00:12:24,000
而STX部分存储芯片依赖三星

274
00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:25,940
这加剧了供给侧的不安

275
00:12:25,940 --> 00:12:28,759
N呢当然是价美债收益率走高哈

276
00:12:28,759 --> 00:12:31,870
高估值的科技阴间股呢就普遍承压

277
00:12:31,870 --> 00:12:36,169
以上这些因素就导致存储板块估值的向下修正

278
00:12:36,169 --> 00:12:39,620
其他存储概念股今天也同步遭到了抛售

279
00:12:42,500 --> 00:12:44,799
还有美光科技跌了近6%

280
00:12:44,799 --> 00:12:46,659
日线走势都破位了哈

281
00:12:46,659 --> 00:12:48,279
其实下跌理由那么多

282
00:12:48,279 --> 00:12:50,240
真正的原因只有一个啦

283
00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:52,360
就是之前价格涨太多了嘛

284
00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:54,720
找个借口兑现一下部分利润

285
00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:57,818
顺便呢就让这个走势回调一下

286
00:12:57,818 --> 00:12:59,599
公司基本面没有改变哈

287
00:12:59,599 --> 00:13:01,798
只有市场趋势在改变

288
00:13:01,798 --> 00:13:02,979
一会吹东风

289
00:13:02,979 --> 00:13:04,099
一会吹西风

290
00:13:04,099 --> 00:13:06,629
咱们别被这个叙事给骗了哈

291
00:13:06,629 --> 00:13:09,220
跌到合理的位置还是可以上车的

292
00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:13,860
成分股中24只下跌

293
00:13:13,860 --> 00:13:17,850
只有六只上涨是拖累大盘的主要因素

294
00:13:17,850 --> 00:13:22,529
嗯之前费邦指数经历了连续近八周的疯狂上涨

295
00:13:22,529 --> 00:13:26,759
周线ISI都给拉到93的极端超卖区域了

296
00:13:26,759 --> 00:13:28,659
仓位过度拥挤哈

297
00:13:28,659 --> 00:13:30,399
筹码呢高度集中

298
00:13:30,399 --> 00:13:32,639
就像一辆车子超载一样

299
00:13:32,639 --> 00:13:34,919
如果不把一些获利盘给洗出去

300
00:13:34,919 --> 00:13:36,220
真的就爬不动了

301
00:13:36,220 --> 00:13:38,889
在英伟达重磅财报落地之前

302
00:13:38,889 --> 00:13:42,419
获利盘选择提前锁定利润

303
00:13:42,419 --> 00:13:46,080
这种下跌实际上是在降低这个市场期望值

304
00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:49,429
如果带着超载的仓位去迎接财报

305
00:13:49,429 --> 00:13:52,230
那即便因为它业绩大超预期哈

306
00:13:52,230 --> 00:13:55,980
也很容易出现前面两次那样利好出尽的砸盘

307
00:13:55,980 --> 00:13:57,600
所以现在提前杀跌

308
00:13:57,600 --> 00:14:01,000
反而为这个周三后的反弹机会

309
00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:03,269
挪腾出了流动性空间

310
00:14:03,269 --> 00:14:05,389
在半导体等AI硬件股

311
00:14:05,389 --> 00:14:08,649
因为仓位过窄而陷入深度回调之际呢

312
00:14:08,649 --> 00:14:12,589
年内表现落后的AI应用软件股逆势普涨

313
00:14:12,589 --> 00:14:16,349
尤其是ServiceNow今天逆势大涨了8.8%

314
00:14:16,349 --> 00:14:19,869
资金继续躲在这些软件股里面避风险

315
00:14:19,869 --> 00:14:20,899
等待机会

316
00:14:20,899 --> 00:14:25,840
不同于以往传统流向债市或者黄金的避险方式

317
00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:29,740
当前资金选择在AI产业链内部做高低切换

318
00:14:29,740 --> 00:14:33,159
因为债券和黄金现在也同样遭遇抛售嘛

319
00:14:33,159 --> 00:14:34,440
而软件板块呢

320
00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:37,539
经历了一季度的持续估值修正之后啊

321
00:14:37,539 --> 00:14:39,789
性价比优势呢开始显现

322
00:14:39,789 --> 00:14:41,769
资金躲进软件股

323
00:14:41,769 --> 00:14:45,590
既是为了规避半导体板块那边高位剧烈波动

324
00:14:45,590 --> 00:14:48,240
也是为了博取这个软件板块

325
00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:50,539
利空出境后的补涨机会

326
00:14:50,539 --> 00:14:52,940
机构通过加仓软件应用

327
00:14:52,940 --> 00:14:56,210
来维持AI赛道的风险敞口哈

328
00:14:56,210 --> 00:14:59,509
同时呢丙烯等待周三英伟达的业绩指引

329
00:14:59,509 --> 00:15:02,159
如果周三硬件端给出积极信号

330
00:15:02,159 --> 00:15:05,519
那这一部分暂时躲在软件里面的资金

331
00:15:05,519 --> 00:15:08,080
可能与硬件形成共振

332
00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:12,809
就是推动AI行情从单一的硬件拉升呢

333
00:15:12,809 --> 00:15:16,190
扩散到全产业链的系统性的上涨

334
00:15:16,190 --> 00:15:20,159
所以我其实还是继续看展这个ServiceNow的哈

335
00:15:20,159 --> 00:15:22,399
特斯拉股价连续三天下跌

336
00:15:22,399 --> 00:15:24,799
SPACEXIPO消息公布之后啊

337
00:15:24,799 --> 00:15:26,990
特斯拉股价就随即承压

338
00:15:26,990 --> 00:15:28,330
分析人士指出呢

339
00:15:28,330 --> 00:15:28,990
多年来

340
00:15:28,990 --> 00:15:30,909
特斯拉一直是散户

341
00:15:30,909 --> 00:15:35,690
压住马斯克个人愿景与领导力的唯一上市渠道

342
00:15:35,690 --> 00:15:38,970
而SPACEX的上市呢打破了这种独占性

343
00:15:38,970 --> 00:15:42,230
就是给了散户更具吸引力的一个选择

344
00:15:42,230 --> 00:15:43,230
相比特斯拉

345
00:15:43,230 --> 00:15:46,720
面对激烈竞争压力与销售放缓的局面

346
00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:49,500
SPACEX在商业航天与星链

347
00:15:49,500 --> 00:15:52,839
卫星互联网领域呢是无可争议的霸主

348
00:15:52,839 --> 00:15:54,239
成长潜力巨大

349
00:15:54,239 --> 00:15:56,558
而且几乎没有直接竞争对手

350
00:15:56,558 --> 00:15:59,720
被市场誉为加了杠杆的特斯拉

351
00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:04,259
随着space x与XAI整合后的版图日益庞大

352
00:16:04,259 --> 00:16:05,759
投资者也就越发担忧

353
00:16:05,759 --> 00:16:07,710
这马斯克未来的战略重心

354
00:16:07,710 --> 00:16:09,789
可能会从成熟的汽车业务

355
00:16:09,789 --> 00:16:14,340
进一步向极具颠覆性的航天与AI领域倾斜

356
00:16:14,340 --> 00:16:17,580
特斯拉高企的估值也让这种移情别恋

357
00:16:17,580 --> 00:16:18,700
风险呢倍增

358
00:16:18,700 --> 00:16:21,159
因为目前特斯拉的预期市盈率

359
00:16:21,159 --> 00:16:22,799
大约为195倍

360
00:16:22,799 --> 00:16:26,269
是标普500中估值第二高的股票

361
00:16:26,269 --> 00:16:28,570
一旦SPACEX这个更纯粹

362
00:16:28,570 --> 00:16:32,799
更具统治力的硬科技标题进入二级市场嗯

363
00:16:32,799 --> 00:16:34,019
特斯拉股价中

364
00:16:34,019 --> 00:16:37,250
长期以来包含的马斯克意甲

365
00:16:37,250 --> 00:16:39,350
将会面临被大规模抽离

366
00:16:39,350 --> 00:16:41,610
并且重新定向的这个风险

367
00:16:41,610 --> 00:16:42,740
大了呃

368
00:16:42,740 --> 00:16:43,860
现在是下跌了

369
00:16:43,860 --> 00:16:45,080
所以给出这个理由哈

370
00:16:45,080 --> 00:16:48,220
说不定上市之后两个形成共振也说不定呢

371
00:16:48,220 --> 00:16:49,899
这很难说嗯

372
00:16:49,899 --> 00:16:50,860
整体来说哈

373
00:16:50,860 --> 00:16:52,159
美股今天的表现

374
00:16:52,159 --> 00:16:56,840
就是一次典型的大考前夕的风险出清嗯

375
00:16:56,840 --> 00:17:00,960
大盘在失去了最近这个伽马减震保护之后啊

376
00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:04,019
正通过窄幅震荡来寻找支撑

377
00:17:04,019 --> 00:17:08,539
近代周三英伟达财报为本轮AI行情定调哈

378
00:17:08,539 --> 00:17:10,180
行今天我们就说到这里

379
00:17:10,180 --> 00:17:11,680
那我们明天见拜拜

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