股神追高FOMO，谷歌是否会跌？存储和光调整。【2026-05-18】

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哈喽大家好

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欢迎回到阳光财经

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我是SUNY

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今天是2026年5月18号星期一

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跌幅万分之七

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日线图卡在了5日线和10日线之间

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10日均线有短线支撑

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如果没有进一步大跌的话

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大盘还是可以继续看涨

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但是因为半导体

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存储股等前期热门板块只涨回调

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主力板块停止上涨的话啊

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那大盘就有可能进入横盘整理

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跌幅0.5%

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一是三大指数中跌最多的

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道指强

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而纳指弱是市场调整压力较大的信号

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目前纳指受到10日线支撑

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仍有可能延续上涨或者是转为横盘震荡

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出现显著下跌的概率是有

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但也不是非常大

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今天收盘后

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我的公开账户截图净值是21.6万

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亏损呢2816

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跌幅1.28%

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表现不及三大指数

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特斯拉下跌了两个多点

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眼看大盘又有点涨不动了

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感觉今年没有跟上半导体大部队

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钱还是有点难赚啊

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接下来想减仓

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腾出一些现金

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非要卖出点东西的话

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我觉得可以从高通和RADI上面下手

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本周中东随时重新要打起来

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正在这个时刻

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伊朗突然提出按14条计划进行谈判

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这被认为中东局势重大外交转机

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伊朗递交的14点建议啊

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并不是美国之前一张纸简化版的那个14条

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而是经过了伊朗修订过后的版本

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这14条围绕停战撤军

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解封赔偿和解冻资产

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核问题展开

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伊朗希望终止战争

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取代临时的长期停火

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设定30天的谈判时间

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美国撤离

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解除海上封锁

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伊朗成立波斯湾海峡管理局

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与阿曼共同行政管理国际船只

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以行政替代军事封锁

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伊朗要求美国无条件解冻伊朗全部海外资产

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全面解除制裁

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伊朗承诺在停战解封石油出口恢复正常后

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同意与美方启动核协议谈判

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美国同意在谈判期间暂时豁免

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对伊朗的石油制裁

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看起来伊朗战争30天内应该不会再打起来

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甚至有可能会结束战争

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今年已经过了1/3有余

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美股先跌后涨

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一季度美股下跌有三个主要原因

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落实要上台

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软件要崩盘

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到了3月份是伊朗战争

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通胀要来

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4月份以后

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美股形成了大型V制反转

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目前已屡创新高

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V型反转的直接原因

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正是伊朗战争的临时停火协议

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现在谈判有了一点小进展

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如果战争结束

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高悬在美股头上的地缘政治

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利空风险就得以解除

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因此谈判是美股的利多消息

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伊朗要在霍尔木兹海峡收费是不怎么得人心

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但最近他想了一招

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准备用比特币收保险费

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通过为航运公司和货主提供快速

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可验证的数字化保险

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用比特币结算

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伊朗试图将保护费改成保险费来收

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未来即使是战争结束

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通过海峡的船只啊

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可能都会面临一笔通行成本

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最终转嫁到每一桶石油的价格上

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由全球消费者承担

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那也还好

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比较担心的是引起持续通胀

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最近加油实在是太贵了

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油价老是这么高的话

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必然会向核心通胀进行传导

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最近一个风险点就是

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30年国债收益率超过了5%

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30年国债收益率截图是5.13%

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这意味着买一张30年期的美国国债

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年年5.13%的利息进账

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到期还能保本

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美债突破5%并不一定说啊

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股市就会大跌

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在2000年互联网泡沫破裂之前

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股市大涨

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美债收益率也能保持在5%到7%

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美债也是破了五

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不过这两次都是以股市暴跌而结束

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现在美债又超过5%了

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买200万美元的债

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一年可以分到利息10万美元

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保证30年还本付息

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标普年化回报率10%

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但有波动风险

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最近3年涨幅超标

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很难说未来的两年会不会来一次均值回归

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拉低收益率啊

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那一边是美债没有什么风险的高收益

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一边是每股有风险不保证的收益

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一部分资金显然就会分流无风险

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利率高了

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股市的吸引力就下降了

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所以巴菲特持有将近4000亿的现金在手

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做做短期国债赚点利息

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周末公布的伯克希尔13F

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股神在一季度清仓16只股

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让人印象比较深刻的是加仓谷歌

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清仓联合健康

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那为什么伯克希尔会加仓谷歌呢

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这是阿贝尔决定还是巴菲特的呢

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今年伯克希尔的掌门人是正式换成了阿贝尔

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在刚刚过去的股东大会上

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也是阿贝尔坐在台上回答提问

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权利都交出去了

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还来指手画脚

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不太像巴菲特这种看透人性的老人

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会做的事儿啊

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所以这一次的13F啊

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可以说是阿贝尔的首次持仓报告

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批量清仓个股

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缩减投资组合的数量

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应该是阿贝尔所为

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一季度伯克希尔加仓谷歌115亿

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使谷歌成为投资组合中的第七大重仓股

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谷歌在人工智能方面进展迅速

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已经是市场唯一一个

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能够覆盖AI全产业链的公司

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不仅拥有全球领先的大模型

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还有TPU和谷歌云的算力基础设施

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全球最核心的流量入口

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谷歌搜索和油管仍占据绝对的垄断地位

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AI没有替代谷歌

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反而让谷歌更加强大

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伯克希尔第一大重仓股

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苹果正在联合谷歌GEMINI实现手机的人工智能

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这样的强强联手啊

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显然是难以复制的垄断优势

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关键是阿贝尔手上拿着4000个亿呀

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光清仓股票不买东西也不现实

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科技巨头都涨的不少啦

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买什么都是最高

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微软倒是跌了

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无奈

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巴菲特好像因为萝莉岛事件跟比尔盖茨断交了

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在2026年

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95岁的巴菲特公开宣布

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断绝与比尔盖茨的联系

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所以微软跌多少啊

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我看伯克希尔也不会买了

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受伯克希尔买入加仓影响

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谷歌今天冲高回落

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略跑赢大盘

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除非是大盘一起跌了

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否则空投应该会避免

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在谷歌与伯克希尔做成对手盘

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毕竟他手上有4000亿的现金

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一只美股个股一天成交量撑死了200亿美元吧

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伯克希尔要是发起狠来

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可以连续买下所有抛盘20天

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这哪个空投能打得过4000亿呢

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倒不是说阿贝尔会买这么多啊

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是手上有大量弹药

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这种威慑力还是非常大的

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有了这次的13F撑腰

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谷歌应该下跌的空间有限

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伯克希尔清仓联合健康应该是获利了结

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2025年二季度

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当时巴菲特的投资副手托德库姆斯

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在270多美元的低点买入

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今年一季度

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阿贝尔在相对反弹后果断卖出清仓

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估计获利45%

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他可能在清理

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原来由投资助手建立的小规模仓位

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而零和健康是其中一个比较受关注的个股

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联合健康被清仓后

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股价有小幅震动

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但最后还是扛住了

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没有大跌

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作为道指30只成份股之一

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美国一线健康保险公司龙头

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联合健康

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也不会因为阿贝尔一清仓就活不下去了

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实际上

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联合健康最坏的时间正在过去

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一季度财报显示业绩出现拐点

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UNH1季度总营收1117亿

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同比增长2%

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每股收益7.23美元

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全年指引18.25美元

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这仍然是一个相当赚钱的公司

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财报最大亮点是赔付率下降

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从原来84.8%的保费要拿去赔钱

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降低到83.9%

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业绩拐点

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而股息率有2.3%

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长期投资价值还是有的

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这只股票的问题和道指的其他成分股一样

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就是机会成本

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看着别的科技股大涨特涨

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刘娥健康这样的老登股吸引力不大

221
00:09:23,029 --> 00:09:25,029
长期就是震荡行情

222
00:09:25,029 --> 00:09:26,370
参与进来后

223
00:09:26,370 --> 00:09:29,110
没过多久就不想和他玩了

224
00:09:29,230 --> 00:09:33,309
最近马斯克最重要的事就是SPACEX上市

225
00:09:33,309 --> 00:09:35,590
预计招股说明书即将发布

226
00:09:35,590 --> 00:09:38,509
将在6月12号在纳斯达克上市

227
00:09:38,509 --> 00:09:41,379
代码有可能是SPCX

228
00:09:41,379 --> 00:09:44,379
如果按上市后2万亿市值估计

229
00:09:44,379 --> 00:09:48,220
它将是上市首日就进入美股前10日

230
00:09:48,220 --> 00:09:48,340
记

231
00:09:48,340 --> 00:09:51,059
有可能超过博通排行老七

232
00:09:51,059 --> 00:09:53,980
目前亚马逊是2.58万亿

233
00:09:53,980 --> 00:09:56,259
博通是1.93万亿

234
00:09:56,259 --> 00:09:59,580
如果是SPACEX上市超过了2万亿

235
00:09:59,580 --> 00:10:02,240
那将成为第七大大盘股

236
00:10:05,659 --> 00:10:08,700
嗯那么特斯拉将会排到第11

237
00:10:13,710 --> 00:10:18,269
上市初期短期热门题材炒作和流动性溢价加持

238
00:10:18,269 --> 00:10:19,909
加上2万亿的盘子

239
00:10:19,909 --> 00:10:22,460
只发行了750亿美元的股票

240
00:10:22,460 --> 00:10:23,740
以小博大

241
00:10:23,740 --> 00:10:26,318
剩下的全是限售不流通的

242
00:10:26,318 --> 00:10:28,178
看似超级大盘股

243
00:10:28,178 --> 00:10:30,918
实际上流通盘也没有那么大

244
00:10:30,918 --> 00:10:34,549
因此股价是有可能一上市就冲一波

245
00:10:34,549 --> 00:10:38,070
但是随着市场发现估值实在过高

246
00:10:38,070 --> 00:10:41,159
限售股远期还有解禁套现压力

247
00:10:41,159 --> 00:10:44,320
预计长期投资价值还需要市场冷却后

248
00:10:44,320 --> 00:10:47,318
经历一轮大幅调整才能出现

249
00:10:47,318 --> 00:10:50,818
对于特斯拉的影响可能就是偏向正面

250
00:10:50,818 --> 00:10:52,698
因为美股前十当中

251
00:10:52,698 --> 00:10:54,298
特斯拉估值是最高

252
00:10:54,298 --> 00:10:55,919
显得有点异类

253
00:10:55,919 --> 00:10:58,240
那等space ass一上来

254
00:10:58,240 --> 00:11:00,029
估值可能就更高

255
00:11:00,029 --> 00:11:02,610
这样的话呢投资者可能就会想

256
00:11:02,610 --> 00:11:05,590
马斯克的两家公司估值就是高

257
00:11:05,590 --> 00:11:08,240
那就愿意为成长性买单

258
00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:10,379
in spacex上市

259
00:11:10,379 --> 00:11:12,480
航天股已经提前炒作

260
00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:14,600
这是基于比价效应

261
00:11:14,600 --> 00:11:17,740
当市场预期会出现一只高估值巨头时

262
00:11:17,740 --> 00:11:22,490
他们会觉得相同板块的类似个股也应该值点钱

263
00:11:22,809 --> 00:11:23,529
航天股

264
00:11:23,529 --> 00:11:25,409
我记得早前有介绍过

265
00:11:25,409 --> 00:11:29,889
最近回头一看RKLB已经上涨不少了

266
00:11:29,889 --> 00:11:31,549
于是问题就来了

267
00:11:31,549 --> 00:11:33,850
当SPACEX上市时

268
00:11:33,850 --> 00:11:38,068
这些提前炒高的航天股是不是就差不多了

269
00:11:38,068 --> 00:11:40,288
我觉得这个是个大概率事件

270
00:11:40,288 --> 00:11:44,299
因为资金将追捧更有确定性和名气的个股

271
00:11:44,299 --> 00:11:48,318
从而对板块当中已经炒高的个股形成分流

272
00:11:48,318 --> 00:11:50,658
本周的5月20号星期三

273
00:11:50,658 --> 00:11:52,859
英伟达财报即将来袭

274
00:11:52,859 --> 00:11:56,278
预计一季度营业收入在791亿到

275
00:11:56,278 --> 00:11:57,769
792亿之间

276
00:11:57,769 --> 00:12:00,049
如果超预期突破800亿

277
00:12:00,049 --> 00:12:01,889
有可能会支持股价

278
00:12:01,889 --> 00:12:04,490
因为股价和市值非常高

279
00:12:04,490 --> 00:12:08,818
收入利润和前景都超过预期才能过关

280
00:12:08,818 --> 00:12:11,058
财报后涨跌都有可能

281
00:12:11,058 --> 00:12:15,230
期权市场给出了一个波动区间是14美元左右

282
00:12:15,230 --> 00:12:18,090
上涨或下跌可以达到14块

283
00:12:18,090 --> 00:12:21,149
对应涨跌幅是6.3%左右

284
00:12:21,149 --> 00:12:22,470
财报出来后

285
00:12:22,470 --> 00:12:24,789
股价可以上涨到235

286
00:12:24,789 --> 00:12:26,789
或下跌到207

287
00:12:26,789 --> 00:12:29,559
都在期权市场的定价范围内

288
00:12:29,559 --> 00:12:32,179
今天存储股调整力度加剧

289
00:12:32,179 --> 00:12:34,590
细节提示产能过剩风险

290
00:12:34,590 --> 00:12:37,309
光通信也出现了较大调整

291
00:12:37,309 --> 00:12:39,789
市场成交第一的美光科技

292
00:12:41,889 --> 00:12:45,190
闪迪西部数据也跌了5%左右

293
00:12:45,190 --> 00:12:49,839
四只存储股跌最多的是STX细节科技

294
00:12:50,158 --> 00:12:52,549
希捷科技首席执行官今天说

295
00:12:52,549 --> 00:12:56,470
尽管目前市场对固态硬盘的需求极度强劲

296
00:12:56,470 --> 00:12:57,769
但他非常担心

297
00:12:57,769 --> 00:13:01,539
过度建设生产线和盲目扩张产能的风险

298
00:13:01,539 --> 00:13:03,980
存储芯片是周期性行业

299
00:13:03,980 --> 00:13:05,399
供不应求的时候

300
00:13:05,399 --> 00:13:06,899
股价涨得老高

301
00:13:06,899 --> 00:13:08,419
供过于求的时候

302
00:13:08,419 --> 00:13:09,519
公司就亏损

303
00:13:09,519 --> 00:13:11,289
股价要跌的很多

304
00:13:11,289 --> 00:13:13,889
当产能过剩的担忧出现在细节

305
00:13:13,889 --> 00:13:15,839
科技管理层的讲话中

306
00:13:15,839 --> 00:13:17,639
市场就会过度解读

307
00:13:17,639 --> 00:13:20,239
怕没有在周期高点的时候跑掉

308
00:13:20,239 --> 00:13:21,879
结果被套住

309
00:13:24,919 --> 00:13:26,379
钱赚太多了

310
00:13:26,379 --> 00:13:28,179
工人都眼红诶

311
00:13:28,179 --> 00:13:30,769
这个也是一种盛极而衰的信号

312
00:13:30,769 --> 00:13:34,828
消息方面的利空不如股价涨太多的利空

313
00:13:34,828 --> 00:13:38,048
存储股从2025年涨到2026年

314
00:13:38,048 --> 00:13:41,460
连续两年占据标普成份股涨跌榜首

315
00:13:41,460 --> 00:13:42,559
涨太多了

316
00:13:42,559 --> 00:13:44,080
有人要获利了结

317
00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:46,769
卖出压力一大就会回调

318
00:13:46,769 --> 00:13:48,370
刚刚过去的周末

319
00:13:48,370 --> 00:13:51,750
我在股东VIP会员视频里面讲到电力股

320
00:13:51,750 --> 00:13:54,889
其中一支是D就是dominion

321
00:13:54,889 --> 00:13:57,850
这家电力公司主打弗吉尼亚州

322
00:13:57,850 --> 00:14:00,830
而这个州是全球数据中心重镇

323
00:14:00,830 --> 00:14:02,769
用电需求巨大

324
00:14:02,769 --> 00:14:06,850
结果今天就传出N1E收购了D啊

325
00:14:06,850 --> 00:14:10,360
出现了一宗有史以来最大的电力巨头收购案

326
00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:13,360
涉及收购金额670亿美元

327
00:14:13,679 --> 00:14:16,820
电力股有好几个ETF也有一些

328
00:14:16,820 --> 00:14:20,589
但dominion的区域优势更胜一筹

329
00:14:20,589 --> 00:14:23,129
并购价格每股76美元

330
00:14:23,129 --> 00:14:25,729
今天股价上涨9.44%

331
00:14:25,729 --> 00:14:28,599
离收购价仅差价九块钱

332
00:14:28,599 --> 00:14:33,169
收购方NEE因为并购下跌了4.63%

333
00:14:33,169 --> 00:14:36,169
作为美国受监管电力公司的龙头

334
00:14:36,169 --> 00:14:41,309
n e e next error energy本身具有很好的长线投资价值

335
00:14:41,309 --> 00:14:44,359
股息率也勉强还可以啊

336
00:14:44,359 --> 00:14:46,438
那如果因为并购跌的更多

337
00:14:46,438 --> 00:14:47,999
股息率上升的话

338
00:14:47,999 --> 00:14:50,120
还是值得买入收股息的

339
00:14:53,860 --> 00:14:54,879
订阅后啊

340
00:14:54,879 --> 00:14:57,990
你可以观看过去已经发表的70多个视频

341
00:14:57,990 --> 00:15:01,529
欢迎大家的加入好今天的节目就分享到这里

342
00:15:01,529 --> 00:15:02,490
感谢大家收看

343
00:15:02,490 --> 00:15:04,379
我们下期节目再见拜拜

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