【NaNa说美股】20260320亏麻了，错把泻药当伟哥！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说

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美股今天是3月20号三五日空投

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这一次是大获全胜

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大盘错把泻药当成壮阳药吞了一瓶

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结果直接拉裤裆里了

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标普500不仅跌破了6500点整数关口

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还一路丧心病狂的杀到了摩根大通

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那一张扣了put大单的底牌

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6475点哈

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在那才勉强止住了血

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尾盘拼了命才爬回6500上方

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我太失望了

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昨天还期待着今天日内会来个升V的

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结果呢

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从头跌到尾

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连一个像样的反弹都没有

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这一波翻车简直是直接翻进臭水沟里去了

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虽然股指今天集体吃瘪

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标普500里面3/4的票都在跌

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特别是那一帮对利率敏感的小盘股

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罗松2000跌近2.2%

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这就是之前涨太丰的代价哈

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虽然他现在还挺在年限的上方

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但是看看道指与纳指早就跌破年线

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掉进回调区间了

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就是将最近的高点下跌了10%

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标普500这一边呢

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从高点下跌了约7.5%

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今天的盘面没有看到任何主动多头进场的迹象

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所有的波动都是衍生品在收割

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今天有5.7万亿美元的期权到期

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规模大的吓人

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原本在6500点这里堆积了天量的铺子

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做市商理论上该在这买入护盘

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结果这个堤坝被瞬间击穿

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局势瞬间就逆转了

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那些6500的put从价外变成了价内呃

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delta值飙升哈

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周日三位的对冲只能疯狂卖出现货

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就产生了巨大的抛售压力

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直接砸出一个大坑来

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最后一批多头这里就当场阵亡了

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今天这根日K实体呢比下影线要长得多

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说明全天的抛压

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远大于尾盘那点猫尿般的抵抗哈

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呃现在的指数已经严重超卖了

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偏离5日与10日均线

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而且呢也脱离布林带下轨

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与此同时

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周线级别标普500已经连续第四周下跌

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创下近一年来最长连跌纪录

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本周周K已经跌到50周均线附近

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同时也是呃黄金分割线0.236回撤支撑位

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因此技术上来说

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随时可能为了修复超卖来一个死猫跳反弹

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至少也要先回抽确认这条200日均线的压力

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但是这种反弹能否持续是个问题哈

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最让多头难受的就是指数已经跌成狗了

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CNN恐慌贪婪指标居然还只有15

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这种情绪面的滞后呢

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说明散户还没彻底绝望

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机构现在根本不急着拉升

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嗯不然的话

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今天就应该有一个剧烈的空头回补了

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他们正等着一次彻底的清场

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要把这一个嗯指标达到个位数哈

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把散户手里最后一点多头筹码彻底的洗干净

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就出清呃

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所以呢这个现在左侧抄底的风险依然极高

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理论上来说呢

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指数还能回撤更深的位置

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可能就是要等到维克斯冲向三十三十五以上哈

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才是空头回补真正爆发的时刻

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高盛交易数据显示

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纯多头基金正在进行史上最大规模的割肉

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昨天抛售了有记录以来最大规模的股票资产

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这与之前几周机构通过ETF对进行这个对冲做空

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是不同的

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这是真正的持仓清算哈

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说明市场终于承认了危机的长期性

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这种规模的资金撤离

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意味着

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市场的底层结构呢已经发生了永久性的改变

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现在唯一能够指望的就是中东局势

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那边出现实质性的进展

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截止目前

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美伊冲突已经持续了21天

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对抗了从空袭向能源设施打击

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海峡控制权争夺升级

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双方都没有停火的意愿

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局势短期内难见曙光

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更别提

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川普还考虑派部队去封锁伊朗的哈尔克岛

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增派了几千名海军陆战队员和海军人员

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预计一周时间抵达

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如果地面战真打起来

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能一举拿下

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那还好说

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要是拖的时间久了

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伤亡多了

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那情况就更恶化了

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油价的人维持在高位

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白宫前两天还吹牛说呃

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邮轮能够通过海峡

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今天就被路透社打脸了

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过去24小时

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一滴油都没运出来

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小摩甚至预计下周停产

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规模要到1200万桶每天哈

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全球库存正以惊人的速度耗尽

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彭博报道说

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美国战略石油储备的时机

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可用空间已经极为有限了

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更是加剧了日内恐慌

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黄金本周经历了自1983年以来

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最大的单周跌幅

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当年产油国因为急需现金而大量抛售黄金

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现在这一幕再次重演

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投资者

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尤其是那些产油国正在抛售黄金

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以换取更多现金

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应对保证金要求或者流动性短缺

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10年期门收益率呢飙到了4.38%

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为去年8月份以来最高水平

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给美股市场带来更大的压力

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债券市场的剧烈动荡

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也迫使多头基金不得不削减股票风险敞口

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以维持保证金要求

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受能源引发的通胀担忧影响哈

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市场甚至开始离谱的预期加息了

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交易员预计

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美联储到10月份这段时间

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加息的概率高达50%哈

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所以如果这个周末中东局势没有好转的话

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那下周一开盘

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就会因为今天没有反弹而引发二次恐慌踩踏

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要是周末出现了缓和的信号

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下周美股开市才会出现空头回补的暴利反弹

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现在我们就只能够静观其变

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等呃地面部队开打再说了

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个股方面

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昨天盘后最大的瓜就是SMCI的联合创始人

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CEO梁建后的亲密伙伴廖义贤被抓

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美国纽约南区联邦检察官办公室

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起诉与SMCI有关联的三名个人

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包括廖一贤

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台湾一名销售经理以及一名承包商

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指控他们涉嫌串谋违反出口管制规定

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这三个人呢就涉嫌利用一家东南亚白手套公司

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承担中间人啊

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下单拆标变更包装

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伪造文件

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操作审计等手法

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规避美国出口管制

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向中国走私价值25亿美元的英伟达GPU

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监控录像

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拍到他们用吹风机更换这个序列号标签

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搭建了数千台虚假服务器

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欺骗美国合规审计人员啊

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甚至他们还有一个加密群都在里面说哈

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全都是证据嗯

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并且终止了与那位承包商的合作

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尽管SMCI说自己并没有被列为被告

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但是要说公司完全不知情

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我是不太相信的

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毕竟25亿美元的销售额进了公司口袋啊

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而且还是创始人带头走私

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抓人只是第一步而已啦

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后面公司巨额罚款我估计是不能避免的

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投资者更担心的是更严厉的出口禁令

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取消服务器出口许可呃

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或者被主要供应商英伟达断供等等各种风险

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那只是真的完蛋了

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市值缩水了1/3

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作为标普500指数成分股

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其实也拖累了指数哈

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当初怎么能够让他去进股市呢

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这公司每年都要爆一次雷

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自从上次财报问题会计问题之后呢

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大资金就彻底放弃这支股票了

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都是啊一些游资专家

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散户们在里面玩

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大家生活中赚点钱不容容易哈

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别在股市里轻易糟蹋了美股

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市场中好股票多的是哈

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尤其最近你看跌那么狠

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就遍地都是白菜价的一些股票

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别碰这种地雷股啊

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实在想不开

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你可以去买QQ啊

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戴尔股价今天呢逆势上涨

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因为呃投资者认为SMCI倒下了

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订单将会转移给戴尔科技

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从昨天这根采样线来看哈

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消息已经提前走漏了

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英伟达股价呢也受到了一些影响

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虽然主要这个走势还是跟大盘同步嗯

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公司虽然说财报并不计入中国市场的销售额

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可实际上它的营收中就是有一部分是通过中东

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还有东南亚地区白手套公司走私卖给中国的

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如果美国收紧出口审核

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那对英伟达的收入可能还是会有一些影响哈

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虽然它主要的市场还是美国境内的几个

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科技巨头们啦

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我觉得就情绪面的冲击会更严重一点

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还有就是美国政府可能会加紧

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这个对他的这个销售审核嗯

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2026年3月的第三周呢

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就标志着一个极端的流动性转折点哈

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随着自战周期的正式确立

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00:09:24,879 --> 00:09:29,339
从黄金到债券都在经历全线抛售

213
00:09:29,339 --> 00:09:32,678
投资者正在不计代价的回笼现金

214
00:09:32,678 --> 00:09:34,419
寻求美元避险

215
00:09:34,419 --> 00:09:38,100
当市场的流动性压力逼近临界点的时候

216
00:09:38,100 --> 00:09:40,720
这个时候哈嗯技术指标呃

217
00:09:40,720 --> 00:09:44,460
楼估值逻辑就通通短暂失效了哈

218
00:09:44,460 --> 00:09:46,720
所以呢你就看到今年这个情况

219
00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:49,470
超卖之后又继续超卖呃

220
00:09:49,470 --> 00:09:51,750
这时候现金就是最好的资产

221
00:09:51,750 --> 00:09:52,970
我们守在门外

222
00:09:52,970 --> 00:09:55,200
等这一波踩踏先结束吧

223
00:09:55,200 --> 00:09:57,100
行今天我们就说到这里

224
00:09:57,100 --> 00:09:58,440
那祝大家周末愉快

225
00:09:58,440 --> 00:09:59,799
我们下次见拜拜

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