BV14R9zB4EqJ · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:00,320 Hello 2 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:00,820 大家好 3 00:00:00,820 --> 00:00:01,960 欢迎回到阳光财经 4 00:00:01,960 --> 00:00:02,660 我是SUNY 5 00:00:02,660 --> 00:00:05,780 今天是2026年4月27号星期一 6 00:00:05,780 --> 00:00:08,539 标普指数今天上涨了8.83点 7 00:00:08,539 --> 00:00:09,859 涨幅0.1% 8 00:00:09,859 --> 00:00:12,070 二涨是没有涨多少 9 00:00:12,070 --> 00:00:14,640 但日内又刷新了历史点数 10 00:00:14,640 --> 00:00:17,320 今天最高点7178点 11 00:00:17,320 --> 00:00:19,679 又是以前没有到过的高度 12 00:00:19,679 --> 00:00:23,760 预计标普指数仍将保持小步伐上涨的趋势 13 00:00:23,760 --> 00:00:27,809 迎接本周的美联储决议和五个关键财报 14 00:00:27,809 --> 00:00:31,129 纳斯达克指数今天上涨了50.5点 15 00:00:31,129 --> 00:00:32,878 涨幅0.2% 16 00:00:32,878 --> 00:00:35,058 那只接近2万5000点 17 00:00:35,058 --> 00:00:39,310 这次极大概率会顺势突破2万5000点大关 18 00:00:39,630 --> 00:00:42,289 每次美股大跌之后的V型反转 19 00:00:42,289 --> 00:00:44,170 都能刷出新的高点 20 00:00:44,170 --> 00:00:47,530 这让投资者养成了一个逢暴跌就买入 21 00:00:47,530 --> 00:00:50,768 不愿意在极度恐慌时割肉的习惯 22 00:00:50,768 --> 00:00:52,948 而大家都这么做的时候 23 00:00:52,948 --> 00:00:55,408 V型反爪就预期自我实现 24 00:00:55,408 --> 00:00:58,460 每次都有宏观消息方面 25 00:00:58,460 --> 00:01:01,799 美国伊朗第二轮谈判迟迟无法启动 26 00:01:01,799 --> 00:01:04,069 伊朗提出三阶段框架 27 00:01:04,069 --> 00:01:06,289 第一阶段是全面停火 28 00:01:06,289 --> 00:01:09,629 重点在于结束美国和以色列的军事行动 29 00:01:09,629 --> 00:01:12,390 保障伊朗和黎巴嫩的安全 30 00:01:12,390 --> 00:01:15,569 在这一阶段不讨论任何其他议题 31 00:01:15,569 --> 00:01:18,650 第一阶段是后续谈判的前提 32 00:01:18,650 --> 00:01:22,250 第二阶段是主张霍尔木兹海峡的管理权 33 00:01:22,250 --> 00:01:25,209 伊朗要和阿曼建立一个管理海峡事务 34 00:01:25,209 --> 00:01:26,930 的新的法律框架 35 00:01:26,930 --> 00:01:29,010 也就是要合法收费 36 00:01:29,010 --> 00:01:32,090 美国和伊朗同时解除封锁 37 00:01:32,409 --> 00:01:36,198 第三个阶段才是美国想要的核武器谈判 38 00:01:36,198 --> 00:01:40,599 伊朗要求在前两个阶段成功并建立信任以后 39 00:01:40,599 --> 00:01:44,159 才准备就核武器计划展开实质性讨论 40 00:01:46,579 --> 00:01:50,379 不能容忍伊朗人来决定谁可以使用国际水稻 41 00:01:50,379 --> 00:01:52,209 以及要付多少钱 42 00:01:52,209 --> 00:01:53,250 川普说 43 00:01:53,250 --> 00:01:55,450 派人去巴基斯坦等着谈判 44 00:01:55,450 --> 00:01:56,759 是浪费时间 45 00:01:56,759 --> 00:01:59,438 于是取消了他女婿和特使 46 00:01:59,438 --> 00:02:01,939 在巴基斯坦进行谈判的计划 47 00:02:01,939 --> 00:02:05,359 那么美伊第二轮谈判没有希望了 48 00:02:05,359 --> 00:02:07,579 海峡的封锁将持续下去 49 00:02:07,579 --> 00:02:09,769 油价也就跌不下去了 50 00:02:09,769 --> 00:02:11,008 奇怪的是 51 00:02:11,008 --> 00:02:13,269 战争和谈判都没有利好 52 00:02:13,269 --> 00:02:15,629 通胀阴影仍挥之不去 53 00:02:15,629 --> 00:02:19,729 美股尤其是半导体板块仍然涨个不停 54 00:02:19,729 --> 00:02:22,210 市场是不是过热了呢 55 00:02:22,210 --> 00:02:26,389 首先是市场对战争消息脱敏已经有两周了 56 00:02:26,389 --> 00:02:28,710 消息面预计不会更加恶化 57 00:02:28,710 --> 00:02:30,430 顶多维持现状 58 00:02:30,430 --> 00:02:32,069 封锁时间会很长 59 00:02:32,069 --> 00:02:34,289 因为这就好比古代的围城 60 00:02:34,289 --> 00:02:37,699 要围到城里面没饭吃才会投降 61 00:02:37,699 --> 00:02:39,780 既然封锁就有效果了 62 00:02:39,780 --> 00:02:42,519 那扔炸弹的成本就显得太高啦 63 00:02:42,519 --> 00:02:43,739 对美国来说 64 00:02:43,739 --> 00:02:45,799 维持封锁是成本低 65 00:02:45,799 --> 00:02:47,209 收益高的办法 66 00:02:47,209 --> 00:02:49,568 所以战争消息不过如此 67 00:02:49,568 --> 00:02:51,688 短时间内不太容易再杀一次 68 00:02:51,688 --> 00:02:54,229 美股周末有一个突发事件 69 00:02:54,229 --> 00:02:56,610 就是川普再次遭遇枪击 70 00:02:56,610 --> 00:03:00,639 在华盛顿希尔顿酒店的白宫记者协会晚宴上 71 00:03:00,639 --> 00:03:02,800 刺客携带了一把散弹枪 72 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:05,219 一把半自动手枪和三把刀 73 00:03:05,219 --> 00:03:06,669 就这么进去了 74 00:03:06,669 --> 00:03:08,990 此人提前以住客的身份入住 75 00:03:08,990 --> 00:03:09,710 酒店 76 00:03:09,710 --> 00:03:11,629 带了这么多武器入住 77 00:03:11,629 --> 00:03:13,590 也没有引起酒店的注意 78 00:03:13,590 --> 00:03:15,949 晚宴的安检也过于疏忽 79 00:03:15,949 --> 00:03:19,709 因此川普说这家酒店不怎么安全 80 00:03:19,989 --> 00:03:22,788 总统遇刺是股市的黑天鹅事件 81 00:03:22,788 --> 00:03:24,308 历史数据表明 82 00:03:24,308 --> 00:03:26,528 如果美国总统真的遇刺 83 00:03:26,528 --> 00:03:28,979 股市是要短期暴跌的 84 00:03:28,979 --> 00:03:31,219 肯尼迪和里根遇刺时 85 00:03:31,219 --> 00:03:34,269 股市都在短时间内暴跌2%以上 86 00:03:34,269 --> 00:03:36,649 川普这两年遇刺了三次 87 00:03:36,649 --> 00:03:38,909 这在历史上都很罕见 88 00:03:38,909 --> 00:03:42,409 今天有一个分析报告敲响了市场的警钟 89 00:03:42,409 --> 00:03:46,209 就是巴菲特指标突破200% 90 00:03:46,209 --> 00:03:48,628 什么是巴菲特指标呢 91 00:03:48,628 --> 00:03:53,049 美国股票的总市值与美国GDP之间的比值 92 00:03:53,049 --> 00:03:55,110 被称为巴菲特指标 93 00:03:55,110 --> 00:03:59,769 所有上市公司的总价值是美国GDP的两倍以上 94 00:04:03,329 --> 00:04:05,120 出现了较大的背离 95 00:04:05,120 --> 00:04:09,099 巴菲特在2001年时在一次采访时指出 96 00:04:09,099 --> 00:04:11,719 这个指标是衡量任何特定时期 97 00:04:11,719 --> 00:04:14,449 市场估值水平的最佳单一指标 98 00:04:14,449 --> 00:04:15,770 巴菲特认为 99 00:04:15,770 --> 00:04:17,129 如果比值过高 100 00:04:17,129 --> 00:04:20,038 意味着市场的泡沫风险越大 101 00:04:20,038 --> 00:04:22,319 如果指标小于50% 102 00:04:22,319 --> 00:04:24,800 则代表股市被严重低估 103 00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:27,560 75%到九十五十% 104 00:04:27,560 --> 00:04:28,759 估值合理 105 00:04:28,759 --> 00:04:32,339 超过115%就是严重高估 106 00:04:32,339 --> 00:04:35,439 如果这个指标接近200%呀 107 00:04:35,439 --> 00:04:38,279 啊比如1999年和2000年初 108 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:40,069 那就是在玩火 109 00:04:40,069 --> 00:04:43,550 但是巴菲特指标最近已经飙升到了 110 00:04:43,550 --> 00:04:44,949 227% 111 00:04:44,949 --> 00:04:47,930 突破了历史极限的估值水平 112 00:04:47,930 --> 00:04:50,970 到底是股市盛极而衰的信号 113 00:04:50,970 --> 00:04:53,959 还是说这次又不一样了呢 114 00:04:53,959 --> 00:04:57,399 我个人认为巴菲特指标有历史局限性 115 00:04:57,399 --> 00:04:59,259 你看他是怎么算的 116 00:04:59,259 --> 00:05:02,009 总市值除以美国的GDP 117 00:05:02,009 --> 00:05:03,949 但是像苹果 118 00:05:03,949 --> 00:05:04,730 微软 119 00:05:04,730 --> 00:05:05,449 谷歌 120 00:05:05,449 --> 00:05:06,350 英伟达 121 00:05:06,350 --> 00:05:09,879 亚马逊等不少巨头都是跨国公司啊 122 00:05:09,879 --> 00:05:12,269 有占比不低的海外收入 123 00:05:12,269 --> 00:05:14,250 标普500成份股公司 124 00:05:14,250 --> 00:05:17,408 有不到一半的收入来自海外 125 00:05:17,408 --> 00:05:18,809 全球赚钱 126 00:05:18,809 --> 00:05:21,509 却用美国的GDP来做分母 127 00:05:21,509 --> 00:05:23,369 显然不对等啊 128 00:05:23,369 --> 00:05:25,319 也就夸大了指标 129 00:05:25,639 --> 00:05:29,459 不过即使考虑了这种计算口径的不对等 130 00:05:29,459 --> 00:05:32,298 目前的估值水平还是比较高的 131 00:05:32,298 --> 00:05:34,178 这也佐证了伯克希尔 132 00:05:34,178 --> 00:05:36,819 早早的手握3700多亿现金 133 00:05:36,819 --> 00:05:39,379 准备在暴跌时大干一笔 134 00:05:39,379 --> 00:05:40,920 我在两年前说 135 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:42,720 巴菲特开始避险 136 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:45,300 并不是我们普通人可以抄的作业 137 00:05:45,300 --> 00:05:46,579 巴菲特是高铁 138 00:05:46,579 --> 00:05:48,180 列车要停下来 139 00:05:48,180 --> 00:05:48,939 换个方向 140 00:05:48,939 --> 00:05:50,439 需要提前刹车 141 00:05:50,439 --> 00:05:52,509 大船不容易掉头 142 00:05:52,509 --> 00:05:54,550 巴菲特需要提前准备 143 00:05:54,550 --> 00:05:56,170 慢慢回笼资金 144 00:05:56,170 --> 00:05:58,408 才能在高位全身而退 145 00:05:58,408 --> 00:06:00,629 普通人一键可以清仓 146 00:06:00,629 --> 00:06:03,009 仍然可以沿着股市上涨的惯性 147 00:06:03,009 --> 00:06:05,269 继续享受牛市的盛宴 148 00:06:05,269 --> 00:06:09,009 人工智能是人类历史上第四次工业革命 149 00:06:09,009 --> 00:06:12,050 这样的机遇带来股市持续多年的上涨 150 00:06:12,050 --> 00:06:14,569 最近有愈演愈烈的态势 151 00:06:14,569 --> 00:06:18,860 人工智能最赚钱的板块半导体最近涨疯了 152 00:06:18,860 --> 00:06:22,000 但今天费半指数结束18连涨记录 153 00:06:22,000 --> 00:06:24,689 终于在第19天不涨了 154 00:06:24,689 --> 00:06:27,810 费城半导体指数很早就是牛股的摇篮 155 00:06:27,810 --> 00:06:31,329 由美国上市30家最大半导体公司组成 156 00:06:31,329 --> 00:06:33,490 核心成分股有英伟达 157 00:06:33,490 --> 00:06:34,329 台积电 158 00:06:34,329 --> 00:06:36,009 博通AMD 159 00:06:36,009 --> 00:06:37,779 英特尔等明星股 160 00:06:37,779 --> 00:06:41,509 费半成份股里面经常出现热门的牛股 161 00:06:41,509 --> 00:06:44,009 今天英伟达创历史新高 162 00:06:44,009 --> 00:06:46,550 但费半指数结束连续上涨 163 00:06:46,550 --> 00:06:48,209 这说明了什么呢 164 00:06:48,209 --> 00:06:50,769 英伟达今天突破之前最高点 165 00:06:50,769 --> 00:06:52,329 刷新的股价新高 166 00:06:52,329 --> 00:06:54,800 总市值重新站上了5万亿 167 00:06:58,100 --> 00:07:01,449 预计财报前会有资金抢筹赌业绩 168 00:07:01,449 --> 00:07:03,569 半导体指数连续大涨 169 00:07:03,569 --> 00:07:05,550 英伟达涨幅相对逊色 170 00:07:05,550 --> 00:07:07,610 因此出现了补涨 171 00:07:07,850 --> 00:07:09,550 虽然股价很高了 172 00:07:09,550 --> 00:07:11,370 但估值还算合理 173 00:07:11,370 --> 00:07:13,779 因为净利润涨幅也很高 174 00:07:13,779 --> 00:07:16,839 股价除以每股收益所得到的市盈率 175 00:07:16,839 --> 00:07:19,009 就显然没有那么高啦 176 00:07:19,009 --> 00:07:22,298 英伟达TTM市盈率是44倍 177 00:07:22,298 --> 00:07:26,079 如果净利润增长速度能够维持在60% 178 00:07:26,079 --> 00:07:29,168 那PG指标居然还低于一 179 00:07:29,168 --> 00:07:31,829 那按彼得林奇的指标算 180 00:07:31,829 --> 00:07:34,610 还在值得投资的估值区间里 181 00:07:34,610 --> 00:07:37,110 芯片里面最差劲的高通 182 00:07:37,110 --> 00:07:39,449 今天盘前还涨了12% 183 00:07:39,449 --> 00:07:43,649 但是冲高回落收盘也没有涨多少了 184 00:07:43,649 --> 00:07:45,129 白高兴了一场 185 00:07:45,129 --> 00:07:47,069 以为要解套啦 186 00:07:47,310 --> 00:07:49,769 高通这两天还是上涨了不少 187 00:07:49,769 --> 00:07:50,970 有消息称 188 00:07:50,970 --> 00:07:55,269 高通与OpenAI合作研发智能手机的AI处理器 189 00:07:55,269 --> 00:07:58,209 如果OpenAI手机芯片是真的 190 00:07:58,209 --> 00:07:59,949 那么这将意味着 191 00:07:59,949 --> 00:08:02,920 云端算力转向手机端的边缘计算 192 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:05,350 这正好是高通的强项 193 00:08:05,350 --> 00:08:06,949 现在都是数据中心 194 00:08:06,949 --> 00:08:07,910 云端在发展 195 00:08:07,910 --> 00:08:11,529 算力语录很少会沾到高通头上 196 00:08:11,529 --> 00:08:15,490 所以高通在AI行情中表现较为惨淡 197 00:08:15,769 --> 00:08:18,769 高通的PC芯片和汽车芯片进展 198 00:08:18,769 --> 00:08:21,408 暂时也不构成股价上涨的动力 199 00:08:21,408 --> 00:08:24,069 苹果呢又准备自研基带芯片 200 00:08:24,069 --> 00:08:25,879 离高通而去 201 00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:27,759 高通估值便宜 202 00:08:27,759 --> 00:08:29,480 但没有行情 203 00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:34,360 估值高的股票每天人气天王行情不断上涨 204 00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:37,019 所以拿估值来限制想象力 205 00:08:37,019 --> 00:08:38,779 容易错失机会 206 00:08:38,779 --> 00:08:42,500 人气天王闪迪今天站上千元大关 207 00:08:42,500 --> 00:08:44,320 收盘1070 208 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:46,850 上涨势头非常强劲 209 00:08:46,850 --> 00:08:50,429 本周除了七巨头有五个公布财报之外 210 00:08:50,429 --> 00:08:53,059 闪迪的财报也非常受到关注 211 00:08:53,059 --> 00:08:54,940 AI不止需要算力 212 00:08:54,940 --> 00:08:56,120 还需要存储 213 00:08:56,120 --> 00:08:59,830 数据中心里面的每一种硬件都在上涨 214 00:08:59,830 --> 00:09:01,529 存储尤其短缺 215 00:09:01,529 --> 00:09:03,318 硬件价格大涨 216 00:09:03,318 --> 00:09:06,479 闪迪的高容量固态硬盘和闪存 217 00:09:06,479 --> 00:09:09,460 是AI基础设施中的关键瓶颈 218 00:09:09,460 --> 00:09:11,179 股价继续大涨 219 00:09:11,179 --> 00:09:13,519 迎接本周四要公布的财报 220 00:09:13,519 --> 00:09:15,480 预期拉满的情况下 221 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:18,200 对财报的考验也就比较大 222 00:09:18,200 --> 00:09:20,779 即使全部数据超预期 223 00:09:20,779 --> 00:09:22,700 仍然有可能利好出境 224 00:09:22,700 --> 00:09:24,139 高位震荡 225 00:09:24,139 --> 00:09:26,740 英特尔在高位继续小幅上涨 226 00:09:26,740 --> 00:09:28,539 但是今天消息称 227 00:09:28,539 --> 00:09:30,818 英特尔首席会计官辞职 228 00:09:30,818 --> 00:09:34,509 由首席财务官代行会计官现有职责 229 00:09:34,509 --> 00:09:36,850 英特尔上周披露了财报 230 00:09:36,850 --> 00:09:39,440 因此不存在业绩暴雷风险 231 00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:41,539 财报的盈利超预期 232 00:09:41,539 --> 00:09:43,600 所以当天跳空大涨 233 00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:44,779 保持了两天 234 00:09:44,779 --> 00:09:47,360 证明了上涨的有效性 235 00:09:47,759 --> 00:09:50,440 CPU成了数据中心的新瓶颈 236 00:09:50,440 --> 00:09:53,318 原因是训练AI用GPU 237 00:09:53,318 --> 00:09:56,958 但是智能体AIA准需要CPU 238 00:09:56,958 --> 00:10:00,379 以至于CPU现在也成了香饽饽了 239 00:10:00,379 --> 00:10:03,970 MRVL迈威尔今天有所回撤 240 00:10:03,970 --> 00:10:06,909 光通性概念暂时进入调整 241 00:10:06,909 --> 00:10:09,090 上涨的时候直线拉升 242 00:10:09,090 --> 00:10:11,009 调整的时候幅度有限 243 00:10:11,009 --> 00:10:12,519 是牛市特征 244 00:10:12,519 --> 00:10:15,629 预计调整之后还会保持强势 245 00:10:15,629 --> 00:10:17,690 半导体涨得太好啊 246 00:10:17,690 --> 00:10:21,009 大空头MICRBERRY在绝境中反扑 247 00:10:21,009 --> 00:10:23,870 买入半导体长期看跌期权 248 00:10:23,870 --> 00:10:27,110 他买入的是2027年1月到期 249 00:10:27,110 --> 00:10:29,990 行权价为330美元的费半指数 250 00:10:29,990 --> 00:10:34,139 看跌期权压住九个月内将出现显著下跌 251 00:10:34,139 --> 00:10:37,000 半导体指数连续逼空大涨 252 00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:39,078 空头回补有一定的作用 253 00:10:39,078 --> 00:10:43,818 所谓的空头回补就是原来空投是借股票卖出的 254 00:10:43,818 --> 00:10:46,360 股价越涨亏损越严重 255 00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:49,659 他们就必须买股票回来结束交易 256 00:10:49,659 --> 00:10:51,440 空头买股票平仓 257 00:10:51,440 --> 00:10:53,809 加剧了股价上涨的动力 258 00:10:53,809 --> 00:10:56,649 逼空逼得空头都没办法过了 259 00:10:56,649 --> 00:10:59,429 上涨的行情也就结束了 260 00:10:59,669 --> 00:11:03,149 大空头bury买入的是远期的看跌期权 261 00:11:03,149 --> 00:11:04,789 这不至于爆仓 262 00:11:04,789 --> 00:11:07,970 但是需要承担巨大的心理压力 263 00:11:07,970 --> 00:11:11,070 逆势操作很容易亏很多的 264 00:11:11,070 --> 00:11:13,330 我是没有太多半导体仓位 265 00:11:13,330 --> 00:11:16,789 但是我也不会去做空最强势的板块 266 00:11:17,029 --> 00:11:20,068 欺软怕硬是最近市场的主题 267 00:11:20,068 --> 00:11:21,389 硬件大涨 268 00:11:21,389 --> 00:11:22,708 软件熄火 269 00:11:22,708 --> 00:11:26,188 微软在一季度成了七巨头最差个股之后 270 00:11:26,188 --> 00:11:29,240 最近也没有出现强烈反弹趋势 271 00:11:29,240 --> 00:11:32,120 微软与OpenAI开始合作降级 272 00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:35,379 今天微软与OpenAI修改长期协议 273 00:11:35,379 --> 00:11:37,279 微软不再拥有OpenAI 274 00:11:37,279 --> 00:11:40,450 知识产权和人工智能模型的独家使用权 275 00:11:40,450 --> 00:11:43,649 也不再给OpenAI付钱啊 276 00:11:43,649 --> 00:11:47,990 但是允许OpenAI向微软的竞争对手提供模型 277 00:11:48,269 --> 00:11:50,809 七巨头中已经有亚马逊 278 00:11:50,809 --> 00:11:51,649 英伟达 279 00:11:51,649 --> 00:11:53,669 谷歌创出历史新高 280 00:11:53,669 --> 00:11:55,809 微软离高点还比较远 281 00:11:55,809 --> 00:11:57,570 说明股性较弱 282 00:11:57,570 --> 00:11:58,909 反弹乏力 283 00:11:58,909 --> 00:12:01,639 但也说明有一定的改善空间 284 00:12:01,639 --> 00:12:04,200 我认为微软是暂时落后 285 00:12:04,200 --> 00:12:08,159 可以用跌多了就逢低买入的方法涨一些股 286 00:12:08,159 --> 00:12:11,139 我的重仓股特斯拉今天先抑后扬 287 00:12:11,139 --> 00:12:13,120 预计中线止跌 288 00:12:15,399 --> 00:12:17,220 特斯拉和微软再跌 289 00:12:17,220 --> 00:12:19,049 都不好意思叫七巨头 290 00:12:19,049 --> 00:12:23,570 今天收盘后截图的公开账户净值是19.8万 291 00:12:23,570 --> 00:12:26,519 高通回血后仍在浮亏嗯 292 00:12:26,519 --> 00:12:29,169 当时买的成本实在是太高了 293 00:12:29,169 --> 00:12:32,029 幸好账上还有一丁点英伟达 294 00:12:32,029 --> 00:12:35,169 不然别人吃费城半导体指数的肉啊 295 00:12:35,169 --> 00:12:38,019 我是一点肉香也没有闻到 296 00:12:38,019 --> 00:12:40,279 好今天的节目就分享到这里 297 00:12:40,279 --> 00:12:41,200 感谢大家收看 298 00:12:41,200 --> 00:12:43,159 我们下期节目再见拜拜
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