【NaNa说美股】20260413大盘都拉冒烟了！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是4月13号

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周一

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周末呢

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美伊谈判在历经21小时的马拉松式磋商后

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最终还是没能谈出什么结果

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美国开出的所谓最佳报价充满了商业投机色彩

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不仅要求伊朗永久放弃核武器

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还提出合伙在霍尔木兹海峡开收费站

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对半分钱不出所料地遭到了伊朗的拒绝

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于是呢商业奇才川普反手就来了个以毒攻毒

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反向封锁了伊朗港口和海峡

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谁敢给伊朗交买路检

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美军就懒谁这个神操作

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把全球其他国家都给看傻了哈

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脑子都是嗡嗡的

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周一的海峡通行量的断崖式下跌

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从昨天的19艘船跌到了仅剩四艘

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WTI原油早盘也应声暴涨9%

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然而正当市场准备迎接能源风暴时

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川普又在盘中发来消息说

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伊朗今天是早上给他打电话了

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非常迫切的希望达成协议

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哎呀我信他个鬼

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周末面谈21小时都没同意

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回去了

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就秒认怂

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但是这种连三岁小孩都未必信的剧情哈

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竟然让油价呢瞬间掉头向下

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这就是当下的交易真相

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川普的话不是说给交易员们听的哈

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而是投喂给量化机器人的高频关键词

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只要算法识别到这个协议啊

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电话嗯停火头条算法交易就会瞬间触发

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美股三大股指

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日内呢低开高走

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都在盘中转涨

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如果说周末的中东谈判是一场乏味的拉锯战

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那么这个周一的市场表演啊

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就是一出荒诞的黑色幽默

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上个周五常遭血洗的软件板块呢

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今天集体暴力反弹

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领涨科技股比特币

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昨天周日还因为谈判未果的消息而回落

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今年又重回7.2

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美元上放

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推动加密货币股集体走高

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标普500指数这边走势呈现极度噶空行情

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收在6886点

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距离7000点大关只剩一步之遥

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这走势哪里想事没有谈成

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简直就像是已经把和平协议给裱起来

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挂在白宫墙上的一样

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这种极度的噶空倾向

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背后呢

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是多头试图在本周五这个月度结算日之前

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将指数定在高位

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大家要分析师称嗯

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川普在同意为期两周的停火之后

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已经释放出有意结束这场战争的信号

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这次谈判不行

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那下次继续谈嘛

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虽然过程会有反复

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但是不改变冲突正走向中局阶段

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投资者越来越将这次地缘政治冲击

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视为暂时性的事件

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并非长期驱动因素

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否则大多数地缘风险难以对市场产生长期影响

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更关键的是

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大型机构似乎已经达成了或者某种共识

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继上周摩根大通转向战术性看多

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标普白突破7000点之后

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今天black rock也加入了看多阵营

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恢复了对美国股票的增持评级

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表示中东冲突对全球经济增长的损害可能有限

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再次爆发的战争门槛很高

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AI驱动下的企业盈利依然强劲

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不过呢口号虽然喊得震天响哈

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但是5月的期权链数据却呈现出深度防守姿态

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机构在疯狂买入5月的put

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对冲赌5月份会出现估值修正啊

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这说明聪明钱在大力唱作的同时呢

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又开始给自己买好高额的下行保险了

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2026年第一季度的财报即本周拉开帷幕

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尽管美国油价大涨

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通胀率保持在3%以上

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年内降息预期烟消云散

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华尔街对企业盈利的预期呢却依然非常乐观

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LSEG一致预期显示

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标普510季度盈利同比增长

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约13.9%

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对剩余三个季度的盈利增长

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一至预期分别为20%

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22%和19.9%啊

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就非常非常亮眼的数据

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这也是为什么指数在经历冲击之后

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还能够迅速修复的原因

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因为市场相信盈利可以兜底

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问题在于这种乐观预期能不能够兑现呢

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未来几周

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企业给出的业绩指引

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很可能会成为决定市场方向的关键变量

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到底是现是追上预期还是预期向现实低头

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已经公布财报的高盛其实给了市场一个信号

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虽然一季度营收和利润都超出了市场预期

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但是抄的不够多

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而且呢固定收益

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外汇以及大宗商品业务明显拖后腿

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再叠加信贷损失波倍上升诶

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市场就不买账了哈

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股价仍然下跌

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这也说明现在的市场不只是看好不好呀

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而是看够不够好

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2026年以来呢

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高盛股价逆势表现强劲

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年内累计上涨了3.3%

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与金融板块整体颓势形成了反差

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同期到付金融板块

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ETFXLF下跌了7.3%

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位列标普500指数11大行业ETF垫底

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高盛CEO所罗门称一季度财报整体强劲

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但投资者认为啊

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这个高盛没能够充分的把握市场利好与宽松

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监管的窗口期

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导致情绪承压

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科技板块呢依然是盈利增长的核心引擎哈

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一季度

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科技行业盈利预计将会增长46%

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这就意味着

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在预计的740亿美元的总利润增长中

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科技行业将会占近80%

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贡献大部分的利润增量

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更关键的是

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经过前期调整之后呢

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科技股的估值已经明显压缩

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从去年10月末的32倍压到了20倍附近

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几乎贴近标普500的整体估值水平了

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部分龙头的性价比开始重新显现

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但是内部也在分化

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像英伟达meta微软

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他们的估值已经回落到相对合理区间

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而特斯拉苹果呢仍然偏贵

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从期权市场的定价来看

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本周财报公司的波动预期明显上升

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从个位数到接近30%不等

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说明市场已经为不确定性做好准备了

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换句话说

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接下来呢呃个股的波动哈会明显的加大

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比如WIT将会于4月16号盘前出财报

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市场普遍于预期公司收入基本持平

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每股收益预计将会同比下降10.7%

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期权暗示股价在财报公布之后

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可能会面临高达30%的波动

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远高于这个其他公司

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这么夸张的隐含波动呢

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可能是由结构性因素所驱动的

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包括美国存托凭证的这个期权流动性不足

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以及大型企业

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客户对it服务支出的不确定性增加

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这支股票自年初以来

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已经下跌了大约20%

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而像奈飞呢

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华尔街预计它的每股收益将会增长16%

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营收预计增长15.5%

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季后波动预期只有不到6%

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甚至低于它的历史平均

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大约10%的这个季候表现

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这说明市场觉得呃

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奈飞的业绩不会有太大的惊喜或者惊吓

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股价今年迄今已经上涨了约10%

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再看另外几家重要公司

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其实能看出很清晰的市场关注点哈

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台积电和阿斯麦的季候隐含波动呢

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分别在5%到7%之间

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从当前的预期来看

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市场对于这两家公司的业绩预习积极

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这也将验证AI算力需求的持续性

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台积电股价今年以来已经涨了22%

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阿斯麦更猛啊

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年初以来已经暴涨38%了

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像嘉兴理财阿拉final秀这些金融公司呢

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季后隐含波动大约在5%左右

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反映的是对利率和信贷环境的博弈

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过去一年中

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由于二手车价值重新定价

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而life financial这家纯数字银行和汽车贷款机构

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面临较大的信贷损失压力

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自年初以来

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股价已经下跌了约8%

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华尔街普遍预计

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公司的季度收入将会增长38.8%

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每股收益增长62%

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存在较强的盈利反弹修复预期

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而像美国铝业公司这种周期股波动更高

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核心看能源成本对公司利润的挤压

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华尔街预计

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公司季度营收将会小幅下降3%

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预计每股收益将会同比下降30%

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主要因为能源投入成本上升

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侵蚀利润率

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嗯期权市惨案市财报发布之后呢

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股价将会波动7.6%

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作为主要的铝生产商

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美国铝业公司的业绩为工业金属需求

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能源成本转嫁

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以及贸易关税对大宗商品相关制造商的影响

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提供了实时参考

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股价年初至今已经上涨了38%

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00:09:34,379 --> 00:09:37,000
至于j b hunt这种运输公司

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00:09:41,460 --> 00:09:42,000
表明

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00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:46,360
由伊朗战争与霍尔木兹海峡流量中断

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00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:49,029
引发的柴油和泵价飙升

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00:09:49,029 --> 00:09:52,700
如何压缩整个运输行业的利润率

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00:09:52,700 --> 00:09:54,139
市场普遍预计

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00:09:54,139 --> 00:09:56,700
公司季度营收只增长1.1%

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00:09:56,700 --> 00:09:59,460
预计每股收益将为同比增长23.6%

218
00:09:59,460 --> 00:10:02,299
季后隐含波动大约6%

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00:10:02,299 --> 00:10:03,139
今年以来

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00:10:03,139 --> 00:10:05,480
它的股价居然也涨了17%哈

221
00:10:05,480 --> 00:10:08,419
自2月底伊朗战争爆发以来呢

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00:10:08,419 --> 00:10:10,339
股价走了一个V型反转

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00:10:10,339 --> 00:10:12,639
完全无视油价大涨的影响

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00:10:12,639 --> 00:10:16,059
看看财报出来还能不能够继续当硬汉

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00:10:16,059 --> 00:10:20,059
这一轮财报不只是看公司本身的业绩表现

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00:10:20,059 --> 00:10:23,860
而是在通过这些公司反推整个宏观环境

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00:10:23,860 --> 00:10:25,078
整体来看呢

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00:10:25,078 --> 00:10:26,759
现在市场已经进入一个

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00:10:26,759 --> 00:10:28,980
非常典型的高位博弈区了哈

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00:10:28,980 --> 00:10:31,539
下面有盈利预期在支撑着

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00:10:31,539 --> 00:10:32,059
上面呢

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00:10:32,059 --> 00:10:35,049
有利率和地缘风险在压制

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00:10:35,049 --> 00:10:38,490
神奇九转指标已经运行到数字八了

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00:10:38,490 --> 00:10:40,179
到出现九之后

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00:10:40,179 --> 00:10:42,740
短期大概率就可能要进入震荡

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00:10:42,740 --> 00:10:43,899
一边消化估值

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00:10:43,899 --> 00:10:45,919
一边等待变量的落地

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00:10:45,919 --> 00:10:48,720
对于前期涨幅过大的题材股呢

239
00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:50,539
要警惕最高的风险

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00:10:50,539 --> 00:10:52,379
其他个股简单说几句

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00:10:52,379 --> 00:10:53,539
甲骨文今天的表现

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00:10:53,539 --> 00:10:54,500
强盗任务末

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00:10:54,500 --> 00:10:56,820
深股价暴涨了12.7%

244
00:10:56,820 --> 00:10:58,139
拿出一根长阳线

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00:10:58,139 --> 00:11:01,309
把被套很久的股东们都给整不会了

246
00:11:01,309 --> 00:11:03,429
日K1阳穿三线哈

247
00:11:03,429 --> 00:11:05,700
尤其是入这条50日均线

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00:11:05,700 --> 00:11:07,659
自去年10月30号以来

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00:11:07,659 --> 00:11:10,360
股价从没站上过这条中期均线

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00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:14,529
如果后面能够连续三天站稳不跌回去

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00:11:14,529 --> 00:11:17,549
那就意味着中期趋势终于开始转好

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00:11:17,549 --> 00:11:19,769
再往上看171嗯

253
00:11:19,769 --> 00:11:22,279
这个位置是关键颈线位

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00:11:22,279 --> 00:11:24,639
如果后面能够继续放量上攻

255
00:11:24,639 --> 00:11:26,568
把这里给有效突破了

256
00:11:26,568 --> 00:11:31,149
那整个结构就会演变成一个标准的W双底形态

257
00:11:31,149 --> 00:11:33,559
是更强烈的看涨信号

258
00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:36,759
不过呢基于甲骨文长期套人的前科

259
00:11:36,759 --> 00:11:40,940
这一波反弹大概率只是当了软件行业嗯

260
00:11:40,940 --> 00:11:42,639
空头回补的便车

261
00:11:42,639 --> 00:11:46,839
在没有放量突破170亿美元之前

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00:11:46,839 --> 00:11:47,719
仍需警惕

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00:11:47,719 --> 00:11:50,629
这只是可能财报前的虚假繁荣

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00:11:50,629 --> 00:11:52,789
IGV软件行业ETF

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00:11:52,789 --> 00:11:55,389
今天也大力反弹了5.38%

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00:11:55,389 --> 00:11:57,590
这个是对于上周嗯

267
00:11:57,590 --> 00:12:00,500
这一波急剧抛售后的一个修复

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00:12:00,500 --> 00:12:04,360
之前市场担心AI对传统软件模式的颠覆

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00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:06,059
再叠加估值压缩哈

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00:12:06,059 --> 00:12:08,190
资金大幅撤离这个板块

271
00:12:08,190 --> 00:12:10,929
但是随着情绪的逐渐稳定

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00:12:10,929 --> 00:12:14,129
资金似乎又开始重新回调了这个板块了

273
00:12:14,129 --> 00:12:17,259
但啊也可能只是财报到来之前

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00:12:17,259 --> 00:12:20,139
空头集中回补品仓的一个动作哈

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00:12:20,139 --> 00:12:22,960
不一定代表趋势就彻底逆转行

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00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:25,679
今天我们就简单的说到这里

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00:12:25,679 --> 00:12:27,460
那我们明天见拜拜

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