BV14Ljm6xEr6 · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:03,520 --> 00:00:04,259 大家好 2 00:00:04,259 --> 00:00:06,839 今天是6月23号星期二 3 00:00:06,839 --> 00:00:09,119 我们继续分析美股 4 00:00:09,119 --> 00:00:12,000 本期内容包括对基本面的跟进 5 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:15,439 随后分析大盘指数和热门股票 6 00:00:16,899 --> 00:00:19,719 特朗普签署量子双令 7 00:00:19,719 --> 00:00:25,019 加速科研计算机研发与后量子密码迁移 8 00:00:26,030 --> 00:00:27,750 签署行政命令 9 00:00:27,750 --> 00:00:29,710 加速量子研究 10 00:00:29,710 --> 00:00:32,170 特朗普周一签署行政命令 11 00:00:32,170 --> 00:00:34,409 旨在加速量子研究 12 00:00:34,409 --> 00:00:38,820 并为联邦机构采用该技术奠定基础 13 00:00:38,820 --> 00:00:43,719 此举意在全面提升美国抵御网络攻击的能力 14 00:00:43,719 --> 00:00:46,280 进一步巩固美国在这一重要 15 00:00:46,280 --> 00:00:49,429 新兴领域的全球领导地位 16 00:00:49,429 --> 00:00:52,329 扩大量子领域的领先优势 17 00:00:52,329 --> 00:00:54,450 特朗普在白宫强调 18 00:00:54,450 --> 00:00:57,799 美国在量子领域已遥遥领先 19 00:00:57,799 --> 00:01:00,439 新政将扩大这一优势 20 00:01:00,439 --> 00:01:06,200 随着中美在量子计算领域竞相确立主导地位 21 00:01:06,200 --> 00:01:07,659 该命令的签署 22 00:01:07,659 --> 00:01:11,409 凸显了美国应对深远国家安全影响 23 00:01:11,409 --> 00:01:15,810 抢占技术制高点的紧迫战略意图 24 00:01:17,599 --> 00:01:20,599 冲刺科研级量子计算机 25 00:01:20,599 --> 00:01:24,420 首项命令启动专项研发 26 00:01:24,420 --> 00:01:29,359 旨在打造能执行重要科学计算的量子计算机 27 00:01:29,359 --> 00:01:31,280 白宫官员透露 28 00:01:31,280 --> 00:01:34,159 政府对该技术充满信心 29 00:01:34,159 --> 00:01:36,700 预计有望在2028年前 30 00:01:36,700 --> 00:01:41,769 成功研制出这台具备实用科研能力的 31 00:01:41,769 --> 00:01:45,689 高性能量子计算设备 32 00:01:46,049 --> 00:01:50,060 部署量子传感器与网络 33 00:01:54,299 --> 00:01:58,079 加速部署量子传感器和量子网络 34 00:01:58,079 --> 00:02:02,709 同时政府将积极支持并与盟友展开协调 35 00:02:02,709 --> 00:02:06,390 共同保护关键的量子知识产权 36 00:02:06,390 --> 00:02:09,750 并致力于加强国内量子技术 37 00:02:09,750 --> 00:02:12,509 供应链的安全与韧性 38 00:02:14,259 --> 00:02:18,099 加速部署抗量子攻击算法 39 00:02:18,099 --> 00:02:20,919 第二项命令聚焦网络安全 40 00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:26,090 旨在加速部署能抵御量子网络攻击的算法 41 00:02:26,090 --> 00:02:31,419 鉴于量子技术未来可能破解现有标准加密体系 42 00:02:31,419 --> 00:02:35,300 美国计划最迟在2031年前完成 43 00:02:35,300 --> 00:02:38,139 各机构高价值资产 44 00:02:38,139 --> 00:02:42,849 向后量子密码学标准的全面迁移 45 00:02:43,250 --> 00:02:46,389 科技巨头高管出席仪式 46 00:02:46,389 --> 00:02:52,929 alphabet高管rules和IBM首席执行官陪同 47 00:02:52,929 --> 00:02:54,549 特朗普出席仪式 48 00:02:54,549 --> 00:02:57,209 凸显政企深度合作 49 00:02:57,209 --> 00:02:59,979 受此重磅利好消息提振 50 00:02:59,979 --> 00:03:01,939 资本市场反应积极 51 00:03:01,939 --> 00:03:05,409 IBM股票有所波动 52 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:14,080 SPACEX或投资级评级背后的逻辑与风险博弈 53 00:03:14,930 --> 00:03:17,330 破例给予投资级评级 54 00:03:17,330 --> 00:03:23,735 穆迪给予SPACEXB小A小A1投资级评级 55 00:03:24,330 --> 00:03:27,229 尽管其自由现金流持续为负 56 00:03:27,229 --> 00:03:29,259 且资本支出庞大 57 00:03:29,259 --> 00:03:31,699 这与10年前评估英伟达时 58 00:03:31,699 --> 00:03:35,689 看重其稳健现金流的逻辑截然不同 59 00:03:35,689 --> 00:03:39,289 反映出信用市场对马斯克宏大愿景 60 00:03:39,289 --> 00:03:41,319 的极高信任度 61 00:03:41,639 --> 00:03:44,139 固收市场的罕见趋势 62 00:03:44,139 --> 00:03:49,250 股票市场为宏大叙事买单较为常见 63 00:03:49,250 --> 00:03:53,849 但在看重现金流与可控杠杆的投资级 64 00:03:53,849 --> 00:03:56,870 固收市场却极为罕见 65 00:03:56,870 --> 00:04:00,269 评级机构此次给予极大回旋余地 66 00:04:00,269 --> 00:04:04,769 对SPACEX中短期的爆发式增长前景 67 00:04:04,769 --> 00:04:08,908 展现出了前所未有的包容与乐观 68 00:04:10,180 --> 00:04:12,780 核心优势支撑高评级 69 00:04:12,780 --> 00:04:17,449 三大评级机构看重SPACEX难以匹敌的优势 70 00:04:17,449 --> 00:04:21,910 其发射服务对美国太空计划至关重要 71 00:04:21,910 --> 00:04:26,829 星链网络能产生数10亿美元经常性收入 72 00:04:26,829 --> 00:04:29,370 且充裕的流动性渠道 73 00:04:29,370 --> 00:04:34,829 可持续支撑其人工智能业务的扩张与融资需求 74 00:04:35,110 --> 00:04:38,170 高额债务与资金缺口 75 00:04:38,170 --> 00:04:42,899 space ex缺乏典型高评级借款人特征 76 00:04:42,899 --> 00:04:45,399 标普预计其现金流为负 77 00:04:45,399 --> 00:04:47,959 将持续至2030年 78 00:04:47,959 --> 00:04:50,379 为弥补巨额资金缺口 79 00:04:50,379 --> 00:04:52,980 公司借款额到2028年 80 00:04:52,980 --> 00:04:55,860 将攀升至1320亿美元 81 00:04:55,860 --> 00:05:01,579 需高度依赖未来增长来消化当前的财务压力 82 00:05:02,899 --> 00:05:04,939 固收投资者的信仰 83 00:05:04,939 --> 00:05:07,639 SPACEX业务异常强大 84 00:05:07,639 --> 00:05:09,410 却极难建模 85 00:05:09,410 --> 00:05:13,230 深度付现金流叠加AI扩张消耗 86 00:05:13,230 --> 00:05:16,009 投资者在钦佩其太空 87 00:05:16,009 --> 00:05:18,879 数据中心等宏观愿景的同时 88 00:05:18,879 --> 00:05:21,420 也需要仔细消化风险 89 00:05:21,420 --> 00:05:26,889 做出一定的信仰加持来参与此次债券发行 90 00:05:26,889 --> 00:05:30,189 股价波动增加定价复杂性 91 00:05:30,189 --> 00:05:33,009 公司股价单日大跌16% 92 00:05:33,009 --> 00:05:35,430 蒸发约4000亿美元市值 93 00:05:35,430 --> 00:05:38,110 使得债券定价更加复杂 94 00:05:38,110 --> 00:05:42,470 这一波动是债券持有人所依仗的庞大 95 00:05:42,470 --> 00:05:44,029 股权缓冲层 96 00:05:44,029 --> 00:05:48,069 这一核心卖点受到市场新的审视 97 00:05:48,749 --> 00:05:51,309 目前10年期品种息差指引 98 00:05:51,309 --> 00:05:55,269 约加130~135个基点 99 00:05:57,920 --> 00:06:03,860 高通拟重金收购AI初创公司modular 100 00:06:05,079 --> 00:06:07,800 拟40亿美元收购modular 101 00:06:07,800 --> 00:06:09,740 据知情人士透露 102 00:06:09,740 --> 00:06:15,709 高通正与人工智能芯片公司modular进行深入谈判 103 00:06:15,709 --> 00:06:19,509 拟以约40亿美元的价格将其收购 104 00:06:19,509 --> 00:06:22,089 若交易最终顺利完成 105 00:06:22,089 --> 00:06:26,410 这将是高通在AI芯片领域迈出的重要一步 106 00:06:26,410 --> 00:06:28,420 备受市场关注 107 00:06:28,420 --> 00:06:31,750 估值较前轮大幅跃升 108 00:06:31,750 --> 00:06:35,470 如果此次收购交易能够顺利达成 109 00:06:35,470 --> 00:06:38,910 modular的估值将迎来跨越式增长 110 00:06:38,910 --> 00:06:40,730 相较于九个月前 111 00:06:40,730 --> 00:06:44,189 融资轮中获得的16亿美元估值 112 00:06:44,189 --> 00:06:49,709 此次40亿美元的交易对价实现了大幅提升 113 00:06:49,709 --> 00:06:53,170 彰显了其技术资产的市场溢价 114 00:06:55,259 --> 00:06:57,899 加速摆脱手机业务依赖 115 00:06:57,899 --> 00:07:01,009 作为全球智能手机芯片供应商 116 00:07:01,009 --> 00:07:04,209 高通正积极寻求战略转型 117 00:07:04,209 --> 00:07:08,829 公司致力于减少对波动较大的手机市场的依赖 118 00:07:08,829 --> 00:07:11,310 加速拓展到数据中心 119 00:07:11,310 --> 00:07:14,670 处理器和自动驾驶汽车芯片 120 00:07:14,670 --> 00:07:17,449 等快速增长的新兴领域 121 00:07:17,449 --> 00:07:20,360 以寻找新的增长曲线 122 00:07:20,639 --> 00:07:23,100 modular融资背景深厚 123 00:07:23,100 --> 00:07:25,660 该公司成立于2022年 124 00:07:25,660 --> 00:07:27,519 虽然成立时间较短 125 00:07:27,519 --> 00:07:30,509 但在资本市场备受青睐 126 00:07:30,509 --> 00:07:33,910 迄今该公司已累计融资3.8亿美元 127 00:07:33,910 --> 00:07:37,129 其中包括去年9月份刚刚完成的 128 00:07:37,129 --> 00:07:39,000 2.5亿美元融资 129 00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:43,319 为其技术研发提供了充足的资金支持 130 00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:49,480 同步洽谈收购tense torrent 131 00:07:49,879 --> 00:07:51,350 除了model外 132 00:07:51,350 --> 00:07:55,129 高通在AI芯片领域的并购步伐并未停歇 133 00:07:55,129 --> 00:07:56,129 据报道 134 00:07:56,129 --> 00:07:58,350 高通目前正在洽谈 135 00:07:58,350 --> 00:08:00,610 以80亿至100亿美元 136 00:08:00,610 --> 00:08:07,000 收购另一家人工智能芯片初创公司tense trent 137 00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:11,110 显示出其在AI赛道上的激进布局 138 00:08:11,110 --> 00:08:13,430 重塑AI芯片业务版图 139 00:08:13,430 --> 00:08:17,529 高通近期在AI芯片领域的动作频频 140 00:08:17,529 --> 00:08:20,529 若这两家公司的收购均能落地 141 00:08:20,529 --> 00:08:24,449 高通将在短时间内斥资超百亿美元 142 00:08:24,449 --> 00:08:28,290 此举旨在快速补齐技术短板 143 00:08:28,290 --> 00:08:31,199 全面重塑其AI芯片版图 144 00:08:31,199 --> 00:08:34,200 以应对激烈的市场竞争 145 00:08:34,200 --> 00:08:38,129 好我们看一下今天市场盘前的表现 146 00:08:38,129 --> 00:08:39,389 我们看一下纳指 147 00:08:39,389 --> 00:08:41,690 纳指再次给出了下跌啊 148 00:08:41,690 --> 00:08:43,029 给出了一根阴线 149 00:08:43,029 --> 00:08:44,049 这表明什么 150 00:08:44,049 --> 00:08:47,429 表明我们画的阻力区目前仍旧是有效的 151 00:08:47,429 --> 00:08:50,570 那昨天的K线是十字星阴线是吧 152 00:08:50,570 --> 00:08:53,230 那今天没有选择延续涨势哈 153 00:08:53,230 --> 00:08:54,710 实际上不叫延续涨势 154 00:08:54,710 --> 00:08:56,809 因为昨天本身就是阴线 155 00:08:57,129 --> 00:08:59,049 收盘价比上一周要低 156 00:08:59,049 --> 00:09:00,889 那今天到欧洲早期时段 157 00:09:00,889 --> 00:09:03,529 就收出了这么一根大阴线 158 00:09:04,049 --> 00:09:05,690 说现在悲观吗 159 00:09:05,690 --> 00:09:08,129 应该说不是说太悲观啊 160 00:09:08,129 --> 00:09:10,350 那如果你是二次探顶的交易者 161 00:09:10,350 --> 00:09:11,509 你可以减仓 162 00:09:11,509 --> 00:09:13,549 等它这个掉下来止跌 163 00:09:13,549 --> 00:09:15,870 或者是在这根趋势线附近再止跌的时候 164 00:09:15,870 --> 00:09:17,509 再买回去都可以 165 00:09:17,509 --> 00:09:19,570 当然也可以看着啊 166 00:09:19,570 --> 00:09:22,450 因为你这个趋势线我们这么画的话还是有效的 167 00:09:22,450 --> 00:09:24,850 但还有一种画法呢是这么画 168 00:09:24,850 --> 00:09:26,409 这个趋势线早就没效了 169 00:09:26,409 --> 00:09:27,730 所以形成二次探顶 170 00:09:27,730 --> 00:09:32,440 我们不妨呢把这两种情况都画一下 171 00:09:33,340 --> 00:09:34,820 说市场也可以继续震荡吗 172 00:09:34,820 --> 00:09:35,779 当然可以 173 00:09:35,779 --> 00:09:37,799 但如果市场有洗盘的需求 174 00:09:37,799 --> 00:09:40,379 为什么不可以呢是吧 175 00:09:40,379 --> 00:09:43,059 说市场也可以在这里稍微就这么窄幅波动 176 00:09:43,059 --> 00:09:44,720 然后再涨上去买也可以呀 177 00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:47,240 所以哈嗯今天是周二哈 178 00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:51,429 那么周二周三最晚到周四可能会有一些苗头哈 179 00:09:51,429 --> 00:09:53,639 也就是说需要两到三根K线 180 00:09:53,639 --> 00:09:54,840 今天算是一根哈 181 00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:56,080 再来一到两根黑线 182 00:09:56,080 --> 00:09:58,200 差不多就有感觉他是掉下来一下呢 183 00:09:58,200 --> 00:09:59,720 还是在这收敛震荡是吧 184 00:09:59,720 --> 00:10:00,940 往上走 185 00:10:00,940 --> 00:10:04,139 所以今天啊顶多算是小幅减仓日哈 186 00:10:05,379 --> 00:10:06,519 不是重要决策日 187 00:10:06,519 --> 00:10:08,519 我们看一下5分钟图 188 00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:11,259 我看这图还飘在这个空中呢是吧 189 00:10:11,259 --> 00:10:12,480 还在这震荡的 190 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:14,179 所以我们要观察 191 00:10:14,179 --> 00:10:17,519 接下来到底啊市场倾向于深深一点的洗盘 192 00:10:17,519 --> 00:10:19,559 还是只是一个窄幅波动 193 00:10:19,559 --> 00:10:21,559 恢复到上涨 194 00:10:22,639 --> 00:10:23,919 啊如果是深度的话 195 00:10:23,919 --> 00:10:26,440 那就是相当于这根陡峭的趋势线而言的 196 00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:27,639 如果是浅的话 197 00:10:27,639 --> 00:10:30,840 那就是相当于这根是平缓的上涨趋势线而言的 198 00:10:30,840 --> 00:10:34,320 但如果他真的在这个平缓的上涨趋势线附近 199 00:10:34,320 --> 00:10:35,759 就强劲的止跌 200 00:10:35,759 --> 00:10:38,779 那也就确立了新的趋势线的画法是吧 201 00:10:38,779 --> 00:10:39,879 那如果他再掉下来 202 00:10:39,879 --> 00:10:42,080 那就说明按照陡峭趋势线画法 203 00:10:42,080 --> 00:10:44,059 还要再继续洗盘是吧 204 00:10:44,259 --> 00:10:47,139 这两种情形都可能存在哈 205 00:10:47,659 --> 00:10:49,120 我们看一下罗素 206 00:10:49,120 --> 00:10:51,460 罗素前两个交易日是阳线啊 207 00:10:51,460 --> 00:10:53,159 今天给一个回调很正常 208 00:10:53,159 --> 00:10:55,879 不用管大指 209 00:10:55,879 --> 00:10:56,519 目前也是啊 210 00:10:56,519 --> 00:10:57,239 昨天是阳线 211 00:10:57,239 --> 00:10:58,438 今天又是阴线啊 212 00:10:58,438 --> 00:10:59,658 就跟这个似的啊 213 00:10:59,658 --> 00:11:01,259 稍微震一震啊 214 00:11:01,259 --> 00:11:04,339 我们的中长线圈线也是这么画哈 215 00:11:04,339 --> 00:11:05,658 画好就行了 216 00:11:05,658 --> 00:11:08,038 无不用理睬 217 00:11:09,840 --> 00:11:12,559 标普标普也是往下走了哈 218 00:11:12,559 --> 00:11:14,299 它其实和纳指是一样的哈 219 00:11:14,299 --> 00:11:15,779 不用重复分析 220 00:11:15,779 --> 00:11:18,529 我把这两条虚线都画一下 221 00:11:18,629 --> 00:11:20,590 说现在能走到熊市吧 222 00:11:20,590 --> 00:11:22,409 这其实也很难说哈 223 00:11:22,409 --> 00:11:24,029 我认为走中等回撤 224 00:11:24,029 --> 00:11:27,549 或者在测试这个支撑位的概率还是有一些的哈 225 00:11:27,549 --> 00:11:31,309 随着今天盘前的这个空头有点小强势 226 00:11:31,309 --> 00:11:33,690 再掉下来的概率好增加了 227 00:11:33,690 --> 00:11:35,490 掉到这个位置是吧 228 00:11:35,490 --> 00:11:38,960 嗯好只是增加了哈 229 00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:41,419 电也并不是百分之百一定会掉下来啊 230 00:11:41,419 --> 00:11:43,159 因为这里还有个曲线在支撑着 231 00:11:43,159 --> 00:11:47,330 它说为什么下边这个平缓的趋势线也对呢 232 00:11:47,330 --> 00:11:48,990 因为按照我们这里的画法 233 00:11:48,990 --> 00:11:51,129 这里创立了一个波段的新的高点 234 00:11:51,129 --> 00:11:53,929 我们就应该把趋势线调到这里来好 235 00:11:53,929 --> 00:11:56,289 我们就简单的画 236 00:11:56,289 --> 00:11:57,009 就这么画 237 00:11:57,009 --> 00:11:57,730 是哪儿 238 00:11:57,730 --> 00:12:00,090 创新高对应的那个波段的低点 239 00:12:00,090 --> 00:12:02,200 就是新的触点嗯 240 00:12:03,919 --> 00:12:06,068 好我们看一下黄金 241 00:12:06,068 --> 00:12:08,889 黄金的走势呢不如人意哈 242 00:12:08,889 --> 00:12:10,448 昨天虽然有反弹迹象 243 00:12:10,448 --> 00:12:12,450 但昨天终究还是收出了阴线 244 00:12:12,450 --> 00:12:14,509 今天再次给出了阴线哈 245 00:12:14,509 --> 00:12:16,529 到欧洲早期市场还是阴线 246 00:12:16,529 --> 00:12:20,759 那么这样的话大家要提防更深下跌的可能性哈 247 00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:22,480 现在是低方差哈 248 00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:27,210 那么这周主要观察这这位置能不能被空头 249 00:12:27,210 --> 00:12:28,129 强劲的往下破 250 00:12:29,370 --> 00:12:30,490 有人说怎么这一样 251 00:12:30,490 --> 00:12:32,149 刚买了黄金 252 00:12:32,629 --> 00:12:34,830 那那节奏太差了呗 253 00:12:34,830 --> 00:12:38,418 猜的不准备好好看下阿尤哈 254 00:12:38,418 --> 00:12:40,159 原油嗯 255 00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:42,960 原油今天包括昨天都是阴线啊 256 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:46,559 那这样的话整体的一个偏空的态势是在的 257 00:12:46,559 --> 00:12:50,309 但要随时提防反反复复的消息面的影响啊 258 00:12:50,309 --> 00:12:52,929 估计往下行的概率会高一点啊 259 00:12:52,929 --> 00:12:55,669 或者是在下方这个区域啊 260 00:12:55,669 --> 00:12:57,950 找一个区间继续震荡就可以了 261 00:12:57,950 --> 00:13:02,879 油价的这个和相对降低和相对横盘稳定 262 00:13:02,879 --> 00:13:05,029 对经济是有好处的哈 263 00:13:05,029 --> 00:13:05,990 好对吧 264 00:13:05,990 --> 00:13:07,789 它不能一直暴涨或暴跌啊 265 00:13:07,789 --> 00:13:12,779 不能走强单边趋势对经济稳定是有帮助的 266 00:13:13,700 --> 00:13:16,019 好我们看一下热门的标的咯 267 00:13:16,019 --> 00:13:18,059 那么我们看到大盘都跌了哈 268 00:13:18,059 --> 00:13:21,548 那么这样的话我们先看一下SOXL这个图 269 00:13:21,548 --> 00:13:22,769 其实他也创了新高 270 00:13:22,769 --> 00:13:24,328 在昨天没毛病吧 271 00:13:24,328 --> 00:13:26,729 哎今天盘前又大幅度跳空低开 272 00:13:26,729 --> 00:13:28,549 跳到了二百二百六十一 273 00:13:28,549 --> 00:13:33,909 我们标一下这个261用哪个捏加个好 274 00:13:33,909 --> 00:13:36,620 就这篇了啊 275 00:13:36,620 --> 00:13:39,100 就这篇还没有跌破长线趋势线哈 276 00:13:39,100 --> 00:13:40,818 大家可以再观察一下 277 00:13:40,818 --> 00:13:43,558 你看我们这趋势线画法这么画有道理吧 278 00:13:43,558 --> 00:13:44,558 因为创了新高 279 00:13:44,558 --> 00:13:46,859 你就得以这个低点为触点了 280 00:13:46,859 --> 00:13:49,970 也就是说楔形也可以太顶了吧 281 00:13:50,490 --> 00:13:53,149 按照一些理论是是是可以拆的哈 282 00:13:53,149 --> 00:13:56,350 但一般情况下猜顶呢是需要先向下突破 283 00:13:56,350 --> 00:13:58,740 反弹无力再往下砸 284 00:13:58,740 --> 00:14:00,460 也不一定能砸下来啊 285 00:14:00,460 --> 00:14:01,700 也可以是横盘是吧 286 00:14:01,700 --> 00:14:04,379 所以二次探顶需要第一波向下突破 287 00:14:04,379 --> 00:14:05,860 这个曲线没突的吧 288 00:14:05,860 --> 00:14:07,360 有时这就是突了 289 00:14:07,360 --> 00:14:08,919 不不能这样看啊 290 00:14:08,919 --> 00:14:11,259 我们应该以新的上涨趋势线为界 291 00:14:11,259 --> 00:14:13,490 去找新的向下突破才行 292 00:14:13,490 --> 00:14:14,769 这是创了新高嘛 293 00:14:14,769 --> 00:14:17,399 是不是那种画法呢 294 00:14:17,399 --> 00:14:18,720 大部分人不能理解啊 295 00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:20,960 咱们就以这种简单的画法去画就可以了 296 00:14:20,960 --> 00:14:23,360 向下突破反弹也可能是震荡行情啊 297 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:24,578 不一定是熊市 298 00:14:24,578 --> 00:14:25,739 说一定会跌下去吗 299 00:14:25,739 --> 00:14:26,538 这也未必 300 00:14:26,538 --> 00:14:29,039 所以二百六二百二百六这一带 301 00:14:29,039 --> 00:14:31,360 看看能不能支棱住吧 302 00:14:32,639 --> 00:14:34,799 要走大货车呢回呗 303 00:14:34,799 --> 00:14:36,580 不可能一直指望它涨吧 304 00:14:36,580 --> 00:14:38,000 这个都涨了多少了 305 00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:40,360 从三四十块钱涨到了300块钱 306 00:14:40,360 --> 00:14:43,350 一袋七八倍了 307 00:14:44,200 --> 00:14:46,080 我看下阿光也是一样啊 308 00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:47,200 啊创了新高 309 00:14:47,200 --> 00:14:48,539 你在其势线就得这么画 310 00:14:48,539 --> 00:14:49,860 盘前跳空低开 311 00:14:49,860 --> 00:14:52,440 也就是说昨天的涨幅是6.8% 312 00:14:52,440 --> 00:14:55,059 今天盘前直接给你跳空低开 313 00:14:55,059 --> 00:14:56,610 跳下来了是吧 314 00:14:56,610 --> 00:14:58,190 诶直接跳到这边 315 00:14:58,190 --> 00:15:00,129 昨天前上一个是这个 316 00:15:00,129 --> 00:15:02,149 这个上周最后一个收收盘日哈 317 00:15:02,149 --> 00:15:03,529 啊收盘价对吧 318 00:15:03,529 --> 00:15:04,549 掉下来了 319 00:15:04,549 --> 00:15:06,429 所以也要看空头突破的力度哈 320 00:15:06,429 --> 00:15:07,149 突破谁呀 321 00:15:07,149 --> 00:15:09,669 突破我们的斜向的上涨趋势线哈 322 00:15:09,669 --> 00:15:11,720 往下突破的力度啊 323 00:15:11,720 --> 00:15:14,320 所以这周这周本身都很关键哈 324 00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:15,919 如果空头过于强势的话 325 00:15:15,919 --> 00:15:18,559 但也并不构成熊市的预期啊 326 00:15:18,559 --> 00:15:22,450 这周应该没有那么快哈是吧 327 00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:24,940 对这周是观察周哈 328 00:15:24,940 --> 00:15:26,639 如果你担心回撤过大的话 329 00:15:26,639 --> 00:15:28,440 也要控制风险 330 00:15:28,759 --> 00:15:30,519 我看英特尔也是啊 331 00:15:30,519 --> 00:15:31,519 创了新高了是吧 332 00:15:31,519 --> 00:15:34,440 盘前又跳空低开观察 333 00:15:35,450 --> 00:15:38,029 我们看一下戴尔带着这个图 334 00:15:38,029 --> 00:15:39,669 我们其实在上周复盘的时候 335 00:15:39,669 --> 00:15:41,830 上周末复盘的时候就说过哈 336 00:15:41,830 --> 00:15:46,100 由于上周最后一根K线是阴线啊对吧 337 00:15:46,100 --> 00:15:48,899 我们要提防ABC一下 338 00:15:48,899 --> 00:15:51,480 因为他有个陡峭的曲线在这是吧 339 00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:55,190 嗯好这其实图啊都要看啊 340 00:15:55,190 --> 00:15:57,070 你看你昨天的K线就是冲高回落 341 00:15:57,070 --> 00:15:58,389 他但他是收涨 342 00:15:58,389 --> 00:15:59,950 但今天盘间又跳下来了 343 00:15:59,950 --> 00:16:02,149 所以今天如果有强势阴线的话 344 00:16:02,149 --> 00:16:04,950 多少要AB往下塞一下了 345 00:16:05,340 --> 00:16:07,539 也就是说这就是所谓的二次探顶 346 00:16:07,539 --> 00:16:10,490 正在给出来二次探顶 347 00:16:10,490 --> 00:16:11,889 即便不是熊市啊 348 00:16:11,889 --> 00:16:13,210 做减仓也是正确的 349 00:16:13,210 --> 00:16:14,929 合理的操作 350 00:16:15,940 --> 00:16:17,820 是不是熊市还难说啊 351 00:16:17,820 --> 00:16:21,480 因为我们没有办法去预测未来更远的未来 352 00:16:21,480 --> 00:16:22,899 我们看下台积电 353 00:16:22,899 --> 00:16:25,139 台积电盘价也是天空低开 354 00:16:25,210 --> 00:16:26,330 那么这样的话 355 00:16:27,570 --> 00:16:30,389 我们再画一个陡峭的趋势线跟一下 356 00:16:30,870 --> 00:16:32,889 你看我们有一个长的趋势线 357 00:16:32,889 --> 00:16:34,990 有一个近期波段的啊 358 00:16:34,990 --> 00:16:36,509 大概的一个趋势线哎 359 00:16:36,509 --> 00:16:39,240 我们就观察这片的情况就可以了 360 00:16:39,679 --> 00:16:41,059 不能做空哈 361 00:16:41,059 --> 00:16:42,960 不管它盘前怎么跳空低开 362 00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:45,349 也不能做顺做做逆势哈 363 00:16:45,349 --> 00:16:48,229 因为顶只有最后一个是现在是不是顶 364 00:16:48,229 --> 00:16:49,828 还不好确定 365 00:16:51,350 --> 00:16:54,389 特斯拉盘前也是跳空低开啊 366 00:16:54,389 --> 00:16:56,149 今天都要观察这个支撑位哈 367 00:16:56,149 --> 00:16:59,470 这个趋势线和这个水平支撑位的有效性 368 00:17:01,980 --> 00:17:03,379 我们继续看啊 369 00:17:03,379 --> 00:17:06,660 我们看一个量子计算哈 370 00:17:08,038 --> 00:17:10,898 量子计算这个盘前天空低开的幅度不大 371 00:17:10,898 --> 00:17:13,680 天空低开0.65%啊 372 00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:16,920 嗯这图怎么办呢 373 00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:19,190 那只能先看涨了啊 374 00:17:19,190 --> 00:17:21,150 我们把这个止损一 375 00:17:21,150 --> 00:17:22,670 你要不以趋势线为界 376 00:17:22,670 --> 00:17:24,029 要不你找一个支撑位 377 00:17:24,029 --> 00:17:24,990 在支撑位啊 378 00:17:24,990 --> 00:17:27,338 支撑区作为止损点都可以 379 00:17:27,338 --> 00:17:30,719 你总归要有一个止损点 380 00:17:30,719 --> 00:17:33,799 你不管这止损点远还是近 381 00:17:34,119 --> 00:17:36,920 每一个人都应该有一个随着K线的波动 382 00:17:36,920 --> 00:17:38,920 总是去找那个可能的支撑位 383 00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:42,150 可能的那个支撑点总要有一个哈 384 00:17:42,150 --> 00:17:44,109 但这个盘前的数还在波动啊 385 00:17:44,109 --> 00:17:45,670 没准开盘之前 386 00:17:45,670 --> 00:17:47,150 这也天空大幅低开啊 387 00:17:47,150 --> 00:17:49,069 大家都要提防啊 388 00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:54,359 My where 389 00:17:54,359 --> 00:17:56,200 迈尔和戴尔是一样的啊 390 00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:57,599 虽然昨天是微跌一点点 391 00:17:57,599 --> 00:17:58,940 不到1%的跌幅 392 00:17:58,940 --> 00:18:00,700 但今天盘价直接往下砸 393 00:18:00,700 --> 00:18:03,029 如果今天收收实体阴线 394 00:18:03,309 --> 00:18:05,589 基本上至少是横盘震荡了是吧 395 00:18:05,589 --> 00:18:08,490 再次掉下来调到二百五这一带震 396 00:18:08,490 --> 00:18:11,829 但悲观的话就往下了 397 00:18:12,589 --> 00:18:13,990 我们看一下英伟达 398 00:18:13,990 --> 00:18:15,930 这英伟达也是比较颓废哈 399 00:18:15,930 --> 00:18:17,900 盘前也是大幅跳空低开 400 00:18:17,900 --> 00:18:19,519 说跳空低开到底会怎么样 401 00:18:19,519 --> 00:18:20,200 不知道 402 00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:21,099 说真的啊 403 00:18:21,099 --> 00:18:26,670 当天这个缺口跳向上跳空或向下跳空都不清楚 404 00:18:26,670 --> 00:18:29,039 当天会收出什么K线来哈 405 00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:33,559 好大家观察我们的重要的支撑位是这个水平的 406 00:18:33,559 --> 00:18:35,640 和这个曲线哈 407 00:18:38,410 --> 00:18:40,650 我们看一下hold hold 408 00:18:40,650 --> 00:18:41,930 这个图也长了一截了哈 409 00:18:41,930 --> 00:18:43,150 大家有地方掉下来 410 00:18:43,150 --> 00:18:44,210 你看刚才有些图 411 00:18:44,210 --> 00:18:45,470 比如说量子计算 412 00:18:45,470 --> 00:18:47,859 比如说微软啊 413 00:18:47,859 --> 00:18:49,079 都是涨了一大截之后 414 00:18:49,079 --> 00:18:50,140 啪再给你调回来啊 415 00:18:50,140 --> 00:18:52,099 所以局部波段交易非常关键 416 00:18:52,099 --> 00:18:52,940 说为什么呢 417 00:18:52,940 --> 00:18:54,779 因为空头认为这是下跌 418 00:18:54,779 --> 00:18:56,299 也就是空头视角的突破 419 00:18:56,299 --> 00:18:58,380 回调继续跌是吧 420 00:18:58,380 --> 00:19:00,219 ABC啊 421 00:19:00,219 --> 00:19:01,439 这是空头视角的 422 00:19:01,439 --> 00:19:03,338 而多头视角呢也是涨了一截 423 00:19:03,338 --> 00:19:04,219 到了一个阻力区 424 00:19:04,219 --> 00:19:05,318 有可能有一些回调 425 00:19:05,318 --> 00:19:06,869 或深或浅的回调 426 00:19:06,869 --> 00:19:10,349 所以你也要定一个可能的一个止盈位哈 427 00:19:10,710 --> 00:19:12,190 一直信仰长持的人哈 428 00:19:13,230 --> 00:19:15,109 长期能赚钱的特别少啊 429 00:19:15,109 --> 00:19:17,190 嗯特别少 430 00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:20,529 我们看下博通 431 00:19:20,529 --> 00:19:22,049 博通昨天就是阴线啊 432 00:19:22,049 --> 00:19:23,589 今天盘前又有天空地开 433 00:19:23,589 --> 00:19:25,849 所以这个375这一带啊 434 00:19:25,849 --> 00:19:29,119 这根横线这一带是比较关键的哈 435 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:33,049 今天明天能支棱住就没事哈 436 00:19:33,049 --> 00:19:35,930 如果连着大家就要减持 437 00:19:35,930 --> 00:19:39,990 然后再找更低的位置再去买回来是吧 438 00:19:39,990 --> 00:19:42,210 他就没有走强的牛市了 439 00:19:42,210 --> 00:19:46,098 而是走像亚马逊一样拉升大回落 440 00:19:46,098 --> 00:19:49,419 拉升大回落是一个非常宽幅的震荡 441 00:19:49,419 --> 00:19:51,919 宽幅的震荡上行也就是宽通道 442 00:19:51,919 --> 00:19:54,589 宽通道最适合做波段交易哈 443 00:19:54,589 --> 00:19:56,029 如果你一直拿的话 444 00:19:56,029 --> 00:19:58,089 你每次可能只赚一点点 445 00:19:58,089 --> 00:20:00,130 然后就又完全就吐回来了 446 00:20:00,130 --> 00:20:01,930 然后再长一截又还是穿一点点 447 00:20:01,930 --> 00:20:03,490 如果你处理不好拐点的话 448 00:20:03,490 --> 00:20:04,650 就容易被套 449 00:20:04,650 --> 00:20:06,690 所以波段交易是比较合算的哈 450 00:20:06,690 --> 00:20:07,849 博通也是这样 451 00:20:07,849 --> 00:20:10,759 我看亚马逊就是这样的是吧 452 00:20:10,759 --> 00:20:12,779 特别是这一两年哈 453 00:20:12,779 --> 00:20:13,839 拉升大回落 454 00:20:13,839 --> 00:20:14,519 拉升大回落 455 00:20:14,519 --> 00:20:16,699 拉升大回落又来了 456 00:20:17,019 --> 00:20:19,720 所以拉升啊 457 00:20:19,720 --> 00:20:21,039 这突破回调止跌 458 00:20:21,039 --> 00:20:22,519 我们说这未必能止跌吧 459 00:20:22,519 --> 00:20:23,720 你看昨天就给了阴线 460 00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:24,720 那我们应该怎么办 461 00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:26,569 趋势线调到这里来 462 00:20:26,569 --> 00:20:28,369 我们在周末复盘的时候 463 00:20:28,369 --> 00:20:30,130 上周末哈说了一下 464 00:20:30,130 --> 00:20:32,529 说这地未这片未必怎么样的哈 465 00:20:32,529 --> 00:20:34,140 一定要提防下来 466 00:20:34,140 --> 00:20:36,099 因为5分钟图看着托宝回家指定 467 00:20:36,099 --> 00:20:38,659 他未必真正止跌哈 468 00:20:38,979 --> 00:20:41,219 看日线图是吧 469 00:20:41,219 --> 00:20:43,298 表明哈市场愿意走宽通道 470 00:20:43,298 --> 00:20:46,000 不愿意走浅回调 471 00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:47,579 是要走深回调 472 00:20:47,579 --> 00:20:48,400 涨十步 473 00:20:48,400 --> 00:20:50,400 跌八步甚至九步 474 00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:51,319 甚至走横盘哈 475 00:20:51,319 --> 00:20:52,279 跌十步 476 00:20:52,279 --> 00:20:53,930 这都叫地方哈 477 00:20:53,930 --> 00:20:54,890 这就是我说的 478 00:20:54,890 --> 00:20:56,890 你不当交易才能赚钱 479 00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:02,000 嗯我看下谷歌啊 480 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:04,750 谷歌也是突破回调之地 481 00:21:04,750 --> 00:21:07,210 但是昨天大幅跳空低往下砸 482 00:21:07,210 --> 00:21:08,210 今天再往下砸 483 00:21:08,210 --> 00:21:09,069 多头离涨 484 00:21:09,069 --> 00:21:10,730 这变成了看跌中继哈 485 00:21:10,730 --> 00:21:12,619 下跌反弹冲击 486 00:21:12,619 --> 00:21:14,759 那我们已经创了波段低点 487 00:21:14,759 --> 00:21:15,799 多头应该离场 488 00:21:15,799 --> 00:21:17,259 画好下跌顺线 489 00:21:17,259 --> 00:21:18,839 预防更深的回调 490 00:21:18,839 --> 00:21:20,539 说又要跌 491 00:21:20,990 --> 00:21:22,849 看看今年受限的情况吧 492 00:21:22,849 --> 00:21:24,750 如果这个跌法是跟这似的 493 00:21:24,750 --> 00:21:25,369 跟这似的 494 00:21:25,369 --> 00:21:26,390 其实跌幅很深啊 495 00:21:26,390 --> 00:21:27,710 四五十%得有 496 00:21:27,710 --> 00:21:29,279 我看一眼吧 497 00:21:29,279 --> 00:21:32,220 这个位置30%多啊 498 00:21:32,660 --> 00:21:34,380 好大家一定要注意啊 499 00:21:34,380 --> 00:21:35,140 老是往下跌 500 00:21:35,140 --> 00:21:37,180 它就不是强劲的止跌价架构 501 00:21:37,180 --> 00:21:38,500 它是下跌反弹而已 502 00:21:38,500 --> 00:21:39,789 继续跌一推 503 00:21:39,789 --> 00:21:41,349 你不要去踩底哈 504 00:21:41,349 --> 00:21:44,069 微软什么的都甲骨文什么的都给了教训 505 00:21:44,069 --> 00:21:46,420 你要是踩底的话就麻烦了哈 506 00:21:46,420 --> 00:21:48,500 不要说我没提醒你哈 507 00:21:48,500 --> 00:21:54,980 美股已经进入到了大幅高波动率的交易时期啊 508 00:21:55,619 --> 00:21:58,019 我记得是几周前有这么一个新闻来着 509 00:21:58,019 --> 00:22:01,039 所以他们那个提醒的还有点道理 510 00:22:01,039 --> 00:22:02,460 我们看一下PLTR 511 00:22:02,460 --> 00:22:04,549 你看往下躲干啥 512 00:22:04,549 --> 00:22:06,549 离场做空是吧 513 00:22:14,319 --> 00:22:15,440 这一阵掉下来 514 00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:16,319 这一阵掉下来 515 00:22:16,319 --> 00:22:17,549 这一阵掉下来 516 00:22:17,549 --> 00:22:20,638 后边会加速暴跌的哈 517 00:22:21,479 --> 00:22:25,480 好我们看一下space x这玩意 518 00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:26,579 这就只能分批买啊 519 00:22:26,579 --> 00:22:29,519 我们之前说你要分周分月去买 520 00:22:29,519 --> 00:22:31,440 你就不会被套多少 521 00:22:31,440 --> 00:22:32,420 不能满仓 522 00:22:32,420 --> 00:22:34,529 不能星辰大海啊 523 00:22:34,890 --> 00:22:36,009 信仰常吃的人 524 00:22:37,130 --> 00:22:38,309 你们要分仓哈 525 00:22:38,309 --> 00:22:40,890 不能一下子买很多啊 526 00:22:40,890 --> 00:22:42,829 我记得原来信仰特斯拉的人 527 00:22:42,829 --> 00:22:44,910 早期的人肯定是赚到钱了 528 00:22:44,910 --> 00:22:47,829 但是特斯拉其实持仓是非常难的哈 529 00:22:47,829 --> 00:22:50,230 对于SPACEX也是有类似的可能性 530 00:22:50,230 --> 00:22:51,430 因为它没有盈利性 531 00:22:51,430 --> 00:22:52,809 基本面不算好 532 00:22:52,809 --> 00:22:55,940 大家主要风要注意风险啊 533 00:22:56,339 --> 00:22:56,940 好嘞 534 00:22:58,220 --> 00:23:00,019 最后欢迎大家成为绿宝石会员哈 535 00:23:00,019 --> 00:23:02,299 去观看这个和这个好 536 00:23:02,299 --> 00:23:03,819 我们盘后再看拜拜
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