BV14FVr6hE3v · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:00,500 大家好 2 00:00:00,500 --> 00:00:02,379 欢迎来到本期的深度解读 3 00:00:02,379 --> 00:00:04,700 今天我们要死磕硬核数据 4 00:00:04,700 --> 00:00:08,759 带大家直击摩根大通最新出炉的一份重磅研报 5 00:00:08,759 --> 00:00:10,179 主角就是博通 6 00:00:10,179 --> 00:00:13,279 你知道当我们聊起AI算力霸权的时候 7 00:00:13,279 --> 00:00:16,519 大家脑子里第一个蹦出来的肯定是英伟达对吧 8 00:00:16,519 --> 00:00:20,160 但实际上在这场轰轰烈烈的AI军备竞赛背后 9 00:00:20,160 --> 00:00:22,660 还藏着一个死死捏着底层 10 00:00:22,660 --> 00:00:24,920 基础设施命脉的绝对巨头 11 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:25,939 那就是博通 12 00:00:25,939 --> 00:00:27,379 如果你平时就很关心 13 00:00:27,379 --> 00:00:29,478 那些科技大厂的钱都砸哪儿了 14 00:00:29,478 --> 00:00:31,789 那今天的内容你绝对不能错过 15 00:00:31,789 --> 00:00:33,490 1500亿美元 16 00:00:33,490 --> 00:00:36,179 大家先让这个数字在脑海里飞一会儿 17 00:00:36,179 --> 00:00:39,859 这是摩根大通最新给出的博通2027财年 18 00:00:39,859 --> 00:00:41,859 AI订单积压的预估 19 00:00:41,859 --> 00:00:44,320 而且是刚刚大幅上调过的 20 00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:47,039 这可不是什么短期的市场炒作 21 00:00:47,039 --> 00:00:50,000 这是世界上最不缺钱的那批科技巨头 22 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:53,829 用真金白银砸出来的长期资本支出周期 23 00:00:53,829 --> 00:00:57,789 几百上千亿的资金正在疯狂涌入底层硬件 24 00:00:57,789 --> 00:01:01,609 而这些钱正源源不断地塞进博通的口袋里 25 00:01:01,609 --> 00:01:05,469 那么我们今天就来好好拆解一下这笔巨款 26 00:01:05,469 --> 00:01:09,930 首先我们会聊聊这个1万5000亿的AI订单积压 27 00:01:09,930 --> 00:01:11,560 到底是怎么来的 28 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:14,299 接着看看博通背后站着哪些 29 00:01:14,299 --> 00:01:16,219 财大气粗的科技巨头 30 00:01:16,219 --> 00:01:18,319 然后我们会讲讲tom hawk 31 00:01:18,319 --> 00:01:20,840 六网络芯片的爆发之后 32 00:01:20,840 --> 00:01:23,939 是大家最关心的盈利能力和目标价 33 00:01:23,939 --> 00:01:27,519 最后当然也不能忘了潜在的投资风险 34 00:01:27,519 --> 00:01:28,599 好的第一部分 35 00:01:28,599 --> 00:01:30,920 150000000000AI订单积压 36 00:01:30,920 --> 00:01:31,719 我们要知道 37 00:01:31,719 --> 00:01:33,719 现在AI推理计算的需求 38 00:01:33,719 --> 00:01:36,019 已经不能简单用增长来形容了 39 00:01:36,019 --> 00:01:38,189 那简直是指数级的爆发 40 00:01:38,189 --> 00:01:40,909 摩根大通的分析师们非常激进 41 00:01:40,909 --> 00:01:43,590 直接把之前的1200亿美元预估啊 42 00:01:43,590 --> 00:01:46,069 一口气往上拔高了整整300亿 43 00:01:46,069 --> 00:01:46,930 为什么呢 44 00:01:46,930 --> 00:01:50,478 其实这背后藏着一个特别关键的行业风向转变 45 00:01:50,478 --> 00:01:54,329 大家正从AI训练疯狂转向AI推理 46 00:01:54,329 --> 00:01:55,290 过去两年 47 00:01:55,290 --> 00:01:58,579 所有人都在抢算力去喂那些庞大的语言模型 48 00:01:58,579 --> 00:01:59,540 但现在呢 49 00:01:59,540 --> 00:02:02,620 像chat GB t germany这些应用已经落地 50 00:02:02,620 --> 00:02:05,109 每天要伺候全球好几亿用户 51 00:02:05,109 --> 00:02:07,409 你每一次敲键盘问AI问题 52 00:02:07,409 --> 00:02:09,240 底层硬件都在做推理 53 00:02:09,240 --> 00:02:11,099 这种海量的高并发需求 54 00:02:11,099 --> 00:02:14,240 逼着那些云厂商只能玩命扩建基础设施 55 00:02:14,240 --> 00:02:15,439 这就是分析师们 56 00:02:15,439 --> 00:02:18,240 必须大幅修正数据模型的根本原因 57 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:22,699 而且这些庞大的积压订单可不是画大饼 58 00:02:22,699 --> 00:02:26,399 他们正在飞速变成博通账上的真金白银 59 00:02:26,399 --> 00:02:29,498 摩根大通预期到了2027财年 60 00:02:29,498 --> 00:02:33,159 博通的AI总收入会逼近600亿美元 61 00:02:33,159 --> 00:02:34,159 我们要知道 62 00:02:34,159 --> 00:02:37,030 在半导体这种特别重资产的圈子里 63 00:02:37,030 --> 00:02:38,530 一家成熟的巨头 64 00:02:38,530 --> 00:02:40,990 能有个10%到20的年增长 65 00:02:40,990 --> 00:02:42,709 华尔街就能乐开花了 66 00:02:42,709 --> 00:02:47,389 但在几百亿的基数上实现同比大约三倍的飙升 67 00:02:47,389 --> 00:02:49,069 简直太疯狂了 68 00:02:49,069 --> 00:02:51,449 这绝对不是普通的周期反弹 69 00:02:51,449 --> 00:02:56,079 而是博通彻底踩中了这个时代最核心的刚需 70 00:02:56,079 --> 00:02:58,299 接下来第二部分 71 00:02:58,299 --> 00:03:00,479 博通的科技巨头买家 72 00:03:00,479 --> 00:03:05,030 让我们顺藤摸瓜看看究竟是谁在疯狂扫货 73 00:03:05,030 --> 00:03:06,930 真的非常有意思 74 00:03:06,930 --> 00:03:11,050 撑起这1500亿订单的是google的TPU 75 00:03:11,050 --> 00:03:13,629 meta的mt i a OpenAI 76 00:03:13,629 --> 00:03:15,680 还有苹果的定制芯片 77 00:03:15,680 --> 00:03:19,460 你会发现博通在这些超大规模定制芯片 78 00:03:19,460 --> 00:03:21,379 也就是ASIC领域 79 00:03:21,379 --> 00:03:24,370 几乎建立了一种垄断式的统治地位 80 00:03:24,370 --> 00:03:26,789 你可能会问这些巨头这么有钱 81 00:03:26,789 --> 00:03:29,150 直接去买通用的GPU不香吗 82 00:03:29,150 --> 00:03:32,069 说到底还是为了省钱和省电 83 00:03:32,069 --> 00:03:33,969 通用GPU啥都能干 84 00:03:33,969 --> 00:03:36,439 但跑特定算法是太费电了 85 00:03:36,439 --> 00:03:40,259 当巨头们要把AI服务推给几10亿人用的时候 86 00:03:40,259 --> 00:03:43,229 电费和散热才是最要命的瓶颈 87 00:03:43,229 --> 00:03:46,169 而博通给他们量身定制的ASIC 88 00:03:46,169 --> 00:03:48,210 砍掉了没用的冗余功能 89 00:03:48,210 --> 00:03:49,289 功耗极低 90 00:03:49,289 --> 00:03:50,479 效率极高 91 00:03:50,479 --> 00:03:54,469 这些合作的规模说出来真的会吓人一跳 92 00:03:54,469 --> 00:03:56,150 比如2027财年 93 00:03:56,150 --> 00:03:58,250 谷歌的订单规模是惊人的 94 00:03:58,250 --> 00:04:00,039 650万个TPU 95 00:04:00,039 --> 00:04:01,740 meta更是铁了心 96 00:04:01,740 --> 00:04:05,759 直接和博通联合规划了整整五代NTI芯片 97 00:04:05,759 --> 00:04:06,759 更夸张的是 98 00:04:06,759 --> 00:04:07,639 Anthropic 99 00:04:07,639 --> 00:04:09,400 他们TP u v seven 100 00:04:09,400 --> 00:04:13,009 部署项目的能耗级别居然达到了一级瓦 101 00:04:13,009 --> 00:04:14,610 一级瓦是什么概念 102 00:04:14,610 --> 00:04:15,270 兄弟们 103 00:04:15,270 --> 00:04:18,170 这相当于一座中型城市的总用电量 104 00:04:18,170 --> 00:04:20,699 或者一整个核反应堆的输出功率 105 00:04:20,699 --> 00:04:24,449 这已经完全脱离了简单买几块芯片的范畴 106 00:04:24,449 --> 00:04:27,290 这是巨头们把未来10年的身家性命 107 00:04:27,290 --> 00:04:28,889 和庞大的基础建设 108 00:04:28,889 --> 00:04:31,730 深度锚定在了博通的技术路线上 109 00:04:31,730 --> 00:04:32,389 好了 110 00:04:32,389 --> 00:04:33,490 第三部分 111 00:04:33,490 --> 00:04:36,300 tom hawk six网络芯片的爆发 112 00:04:36,300 --> 00:04:40,199 要知道博通的统治力可不仅仅在计算芯片上 113 00:04:40,199 --> 00:04:42,939 他们的网络设备同样是王炸 114 00:04:42,939 --> 00:04:44,639 给大家科普个常识 115 00:04:44,639 --> 00:04:46,279 在AI算力中心里 116 00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:48,240 芯片算得快是一回事 117 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:51,899 但这成千上万个处理器之间怎么高效沟通 118 00:04:51,899 --> 00:04:53,589 才是最要命的瓶颈 119 00:04:53,589 --> 00:04:55,110 要是几万张显卡 120 00:04:55,110 --> 00:04:56,029 因为网络卡顿 121 00:04:56,029 --> 00:04:56,990 在那互相干 122 00:04:56,990 --> 00:04:58,029 等着传数据 123 00:04:58,029 --> 00:05:01,050 那烧掉的可是几百万美元的算力费啊 124 00:05:01,050 --> 00:05:02,410 Tom hall six 125 00:05:02,410 --> 00:05:06,199 就是博通搞出来的下一代3NM工艺交换产品 126 00:05:06,199 --> 00:05:09,639 它能提供1002TBPS的超大总带宽 127 00:05:09,639 --> 00:05:12,000 单通道速度200GBP 128 00:05:12,000 --> 00:05:15,000 这玩意儿简直就是数字中心里的超级大动漫 129 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:17,240 专门确保海量的人工智能数据 130 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:21,339 能以绝对零延迟的状态在集群里疯狂穿梭 131 00:05:21,339 --> 00:05:22,500 重点来了 132 00:05:22,500 --> 00:05:25,750 摩根大通在报告里非常笃定地强调 133 00:05:25,750 --> 00:05:27,089 这款网络芯片 134 00:05:27,089 --> 00:05:29,949 明年的产能几乎已经被彻底抢空了 135 00:05:29,949 --> 00:05:31,389 在半导体供应链里 136 00:05:31,389 --> 00:05:33,600 产能提前一年受限意味着什么 137 00:05:33,600 --> 00:05:36,959 意味着博通完全消除了近期的库存风险 138 00:05:36,959 --> 00:05:40,158 而且赋予了自己无与伦比的定价权 139 00:05:40,158 --> 00:05:42,459 面对极度稀缺的高端网络贷款 140 00:05:42,459 --> 00:05:43,639 下游的云厂商 141 00:05:43,639 --> 00:05:46,338 为了保证自家的AI集群能顺利上线 142 00:05:46,338 --> 00:05:48,158 除了乖乖接受博通的条款 143 00:05:48,158 --> 00:05:49,459 根本没得选 144 00:05:49,459 --> 00:05:51,079 这种绝对的供不应求 145 00:05:51,079 --> 00:05:55,500 将直接转化为极其丰厚且高度确定的利润流 146 00:05:55,500 --> 00:05:58,709 第四部分盈利能力与目标价 147 00:05:58,709 --> 00:05:59,750 说了这么多 148 00:05:59,750 --> 00:06:01,310 技术和市场地位 149 00:06:01,310 --> 00:06:05,579 这到底能给投资者带来多少真金白银的回报 150 00:06:05,579 --> 00:06:06,620 很多时候 151 00:06:06,620 --> 00:06:07,980 华尔街的财务模型 152 00:06:07,980 --> 00:06:11,480 其实是跟不上现实中技术爆发速度的 153 00:06:11,480 --> 00:06:14,658 但这次摩根大通的团队极其敏锐 154 00:06:14,658 --> 00:06:16,358 他们给出的看涨目标价 155 00:06:16,358 --> 00:06:18,978 非常完美地贴合了博通基本面 156 00:06:18,978 --> 00:06:21,480 爆发带来的股价狂飙走势 157 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:25,860 居博通在计算和网络硬件领域的双重霸权 158 00:06:25,860 --> 00:06:27,540 分析师在这份报告中 159 00:06:27,540 --> 00:06:29,959 毫不犹豫地重申了增持评级 160 00:06:29,959 --> 00:06:32,740 并且定下了500美元的新目标价 161 00:06:32,740 --> 00:06:35,420 这充分说明了顶尖金融机构对博通 162 00:06:35,420 --> 00:06:38,899 把技术护城河变现的能力充满了信心 163 00:06:38,899 --> 00:06:41,740 我们再来对比一组非常有意思的数据 164 00:06:41,740 --> 00:06:45,259 目前市场对波通2027自然年的每股收益 165 00:06:45,259 --> 00:06:46,720 预测是21美元 166 00:06:46,720 --> 00:06:49,339 但分析师上调后的潜在退出 167 00:06:49,339 --> 00:06:52,730 盈利能力已经高达每股23~25美元 168 00:06:52,730 --> 00:06:55,310 可别小看这区区几美元的提升 169 00:06:55,310 --> 00:06:57,730 这也在金融市场上意义太大了 170 00:06:57,730 --> 00:06:59,509 盈利预期的显著增加 171 00:06:59,509 --> 00:07:02,158 会直接拉低股票的远期市盈率 172 00:07:02,158 --> 00:07:03,019 也就是说 173 00:07:03,019 --> 00:07:05,439 尽管波通的股价最近涨得很猛 174 00:07:05,439 --> 00:07:08,120 但因为人家赚钱能力的增速更快 175 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:09,680 从基本面估值来看 176 00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:12,319 这家公司在机构型价值投资者眼里 177 00:07:12,319 --> 00:07:13,800 反而变得更加便宜 178 00:07:13,800 --> 00:07:15,449 更有吸引力了 179 00:07:15,449 --> 00:07:18,939 最后第五部分潜在投资风险 180 00:07:18,939 --> 00:07:21,300 舆论多完美的投资逻辑 181 00:07:21,300 --> 00:07:23,120 咱们都得保持理智 182 00:07:23,120 --> 00:07:25,970 客观的看看潜在的下行风险 183 00:07:25,970 --> 00:07:30,480 毕竟任何投资都无法脱离宏观大环境 184 00:07:30,480 --> 00:07:32,000 摩根大通也很客观 185 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:36,480 指数全球经济或者某个区域市场的意料外冲击 186 00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:38,740 随时可能改变总需求 187 00:07:41,240 --> 00:07:44,560 博通还面临着另一个隐蔽的结构性风险 188 00:07:44,560 --> 00:07:47,279 就是i it预算的吞噬效应 189 00:07:47,279 --> 00:07:48,240 大家别忘了 190 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:49,899 博通除了AI芯片 191 00:07:49,899 --> 00:07:52,610 还有庞大的传统半导体业务 192 00:07:52,610 --> 00:07:55,709 以及像win威尔这样的企业级软件业务 193 00:07:55,709 --> 00:07:58,189 现在所有公司都在勒紧裤腰带 194 00:07:58,189 --> 00:07:59,829 削减传统it预算 195 00:07:59,829 --> 00:08:01,089 去买AI设备 196 00:08:01,089 --> 00:08:05,009 如果这种非AI领域的预算萎缩超出了预期 197 00:08:05,009 --> 00:08:07,110 确实有可能在一定程度上 198 00:08:07,110 --> 00:08:09,560 拖累博通整体的财报表现 199 00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:11,060 不过总体而言 200 00:08:11,060 --> 00:08:14,600 这份报告还是用了一句非常盖棺定论的话 201 00:08:14,600 --> 00:08:15,240 来评价 202 00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:15,860 博通 203 00:08:15,860 --> 00:08:19,980 一家在规模和技术能力上无可匹敌的技术 204 00:08:19,980 --> 00:08:21,600 基础设计强企 205 00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:23,079 这里的无可比敌 206 00:08:23,079 --> 00:08:25,809 绝对不只是只能1万多亿的市值 207 00:08:25,809 --> 00:08:29,389 它代表的是博通在高速网络通信领域 208 00:08:29,389 --> 00:08:32,009 几十年攒下来的庞大专利库 209 00:08:32,009 --> 00:08:35,899 是市面上花钱都挖不到的顶尖硅片工程人才 210 00:08:35,899 --> 00:08:36,960 更是跟谷歌 211 00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:39,460 meta这些巨头经过好几年磨合 212 00:08:39,460 --> 00:08:42,440 才建立起来的底层协同设计关系 213 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:46,100 这种深深扎根在客户生态系统里的护城河 214 00:08:46,100 --> 00:08:48,360 别的竞争对手就算砸再多钱 215 00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:50,589 短时内也是绝对抄不走的 216 00:08:50,589 --> 00:08:53,818 那么就这引出了我们最后的思考 217 00:08:53,818 --> 00:08:57,658 在这个由海量算力和超高速数据传输 218 00:08:57,658 --> 00:08:59,809 共同驱动的全新时代 219 00:08:59,809 --> 00:09:04,799 博通究竟会不会是这整个AI10年中最核心 220 00:09:04,799 --> 00:09:07,919 最底层的中级基础设施投资标的 221 00:09:07,919 --> 00:09:11,679 这绝对是一个值得所有关注科技产业走向的人 222 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:12,700 深思的问题 223 00:09:12,700 --> 00:09:15,578 非常感谢大家收看本期的深度解读 224 00:09:15,578 --> 00:09:18,178 希望今天拆解的这份重磅研报 225 00:09:18,178 --> 00:09:20,558 能帮你拨开喧嚣的市场迷雾 226 00:09:20,558 --> 00:09:24,450 看清真金白银的流向与技术演进的底层脉络 227 00:09:24,450 --> 00:09:26,120 我们下期再见
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