【NaNa说美股】20260420不打都是演！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是4月20号

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周一

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本周开局呢

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市场陷入了地缘政治与宏观结构的双重拉锯

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受中东局势不确定性影响

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市场节奏整体受压

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周末中东局势降温转冷

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伊朗在短暂开放霍尔木兹海峡后

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周六又再次关闭了通道

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并且还袭击了两艘印度船只

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美国海军也不含糊哈

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周日扣押了一艘伊朗船只

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作为回应敌对行动

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再一起呢让事态变得更加复杂

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航运数据显示

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今天周一霍尔木兹海峡的航运交通基本停滞

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过去12个小时内

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只有三艘船只通过国际海事组织提醒

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相关海域局势依然动荡多变

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敦促船只保持最高警戒

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在未获得安全保障情况之下

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切勿冒险行动

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没事就别去那片海域瞎晃了

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美一临时停火协议呢将在4月22号到期

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第二轮谈判前景却不确定

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美国继续采取边躺边压的策略

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有副总统万斯带着胡萝卜前往巴基斯坦

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准备第二轮谈判

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川普呢则在大后方继续挥着大棒威胁称

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如果还谈不拢

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就恢复军事打击

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而伊朗这边的信息完全不一致哈

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一会说愿意谈

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一会又说没有计划谈

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紧接着又有消息称

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代表团即将启程去巴基斯坦

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这种混乱背后可能是伊朗内部权力博弈

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也可能是刻意释放不同信号来争取谈判筹码

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但市场对此反映了相对冷静

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国际油价今天反弹的有气无力

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交易员普遍认为

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双方仍处于争取筹码的阶段

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短期内或许难以达成全面协议

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但是冲突升级不符合双方利益

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巴基斯坦的斡旋以及幕后大国的协调

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正推动局势向必须谈的逻辑演进

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整体局势呢仍处于波动中的降级轨道上

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此前纳只凭借着停火蓄势与盈利

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乐观情绪呢实现了13连斩

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目前短线超卖已经到极限

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结构性逼空进入了末尾

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技术面的顺风逐渐消退

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市场在高位的犹豫

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反映了对前期过快涨幅的消化需求

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虽然我也不想老说这个担心呃

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回调这种扫兴的话

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尤其是大家看今天这个盘面走的硬的不行哈

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跌一点点都很难

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但是呢这个点位哈大家再说哈

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进去那更不理性

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高盛交易台发出最新警告指出

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尽管从纯技术面看

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这一轮涨势仍有延续的可能

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但市场已经逼近回调的临界点

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目前市场的杠杆结构呢呈现出明显的失衡特征

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的历史极端水平

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而净杠杆率却只有75%

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处于历史低位

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这种总杠杆高

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净杠杆低的背离

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折射出市场持仓极其拥挤

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但是方向性的压住并不坚定

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也就是说

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一旦市场情绪逆转的话

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去杠杆的压力将会集中释放

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更大的隐患

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藏在期权结构之中

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目前美国整体po visual已经降到了0.54

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处于过去4年来的极低水平

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这通常只会出现在市场情绪

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就当下这情况

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与此同时呢

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科技股的看涨期权交易量急剧攀升

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其中短期期权占比高达80%

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意味着大量的资金在做短线搏杀

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而不是中长期布局

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大家都在赌这个科技股指大盘还会继续涨

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几乎没人去做下行保护

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这情况和嗯今年2月底那时候完全不同哈

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但是机构们呢购买了大量的put做保险

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导致市场在3月份的下跌中一直有承接

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而现在的非对称博弈

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一旦遇到下跌出发点的话

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就会非常的脆弱

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因为缺乏对冲头寸的承接

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叠起来就会非常的快

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反转点要在6860点

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只要标普500

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还维持在6860点上方的积极伽马区啊

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就是这个绿色的呃区域内市场呢仍然是安全的

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GTA剩余的700亿买盘

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可以在几乎没有对冲阻力的情况之下

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轻松将指数推向7150

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甚至7180

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可要是一旦跌破了6860呢

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做市商家会转为高卖低买的负干嘛模式

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届时波动率会瞬间爆表

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目前呃指数还处于7100点附近

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距离这个6860点非常的遥远

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所以暂时还不构成威胁

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在指数连续创新高的同时呢

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波动率指数VIX始终维持在16以上

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主要是因为衡量标普500指数

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已经降到了10.80的地板价呃

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这意味着个股走势已经极其分散

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而现在进入财报季

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由于担忧企业业绩暴雷

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个股的波动率非常的坚挺

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当个股波动率不降

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而相关性已经跌无可跌的时候呢

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做市商就不得不通过买入指数波动率

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来对冲风险

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导致呃

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现在上涨成本大幅提高

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市场正在从顺风推升转向高压运行

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所以综合来看

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当前美股市场正处于高位脆弱

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平衡的压力测试中

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上方呢有这个做多惯性

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有资金

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有AI虚实支撑

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而下方的结构呢越来越不稳

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一旦本周有大货开始反向砸盘的话

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波动你就会迅速放大

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所以呢如果持有多头仓位哈

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现在是时候提高止损

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利用本周的最后的惯性冲高来减少产口

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而不是再继续增加仓位

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在市场短期回调之后

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接下来真正决定方向的不再是宏观情绪

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什么那个伊朗谈判啦

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或者是其他的

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而是财报本身了

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本周标普500成分股中呢

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约有1/5的公司将披露业绩

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其中特斯拉最受瞩目

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在汽车交付不及预期

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盈利持续承压的背景下

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投资者将密切关注欧伯达XC的进展

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FSD的技术迭代以及CYBERCUP的量产计划

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由于特斯拉股价

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在财报前已经反弹了近15%

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生产呢已经提前消化了部分利好

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如果业绩或者指引不及预期哈

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很容易引发剧烈的波动

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此外波音英特尔

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宝洁是未来几天公布业绩的其他知名公司

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将为市场呢提供关于基础设施需求

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以及能源成本影响的重要参考

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嗯总而言之

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这个强劲的企业盈利数据

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有望成为资金重新入场的催化剂

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在政策层面

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阐述它的货币政策主张

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虽然嗯美联储大楼翻新工程调查可能会延期

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他的提名确认

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但是他来掌舵这个美联储已经是大势所趋

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市场呢正密切关注他对美联储

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独立性与通胀的态度

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此外

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针对此前被美国最高法院裁定为非法征收关税

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的返还工作已经于今日啊正式启动

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美国海关与边境保护局的已经开放了申请系统

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预计将退还大约1660亿美元的税款

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这个巨额流动性回流嗯

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将会在未来60~90天内

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对相关进口企业产生积极影响

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比如像耐克就有望成为关税退还的直接受益者

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成本端存在修复空间

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此外2026年世界杯

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这个超级催化剂就在眼前

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这届世界杯是史上最大规模的一届

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有48支球队

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104场

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这个比赛覆盖了16个城市

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全球关注度和商业价值都将创纪录

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对运动品牌来说

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这是一场流量和消费的集中爆发窗口

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耐克这一次虽然赞助队伍数量略少亚迪达斯

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但是明显走的是呃更重质量的路线

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手里握着多支强队资源哈

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甚至把JORDAN的品牌带进巴西队

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话题性和议价能力都在拉满

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基本面的修复和超级事件驱动的股价

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有望迎来一波反弹

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去年年底的时候

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库克第一次出手啊

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我没有去跟他

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这一次他和公司CEO又双双出手增持股票

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我今天也买了一些

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就去抄这个库克的底

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等世界杯的情绪发酵

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其他个股方面

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迈威尔科技今天涨近6%

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有消息称

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谷歌正与迈威尔科技洽谈合作

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共同开发两款新型芯片

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其中一款呢为提升数据处理效率的内存

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计算芯片

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另一款则是专为AI推理任务设计的新型TPU

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迈威尔科技将承担设计服务角色

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类似于联发科

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参与谷歌最新ione word tpu项目的方式

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双方目标最快于明年完成存储芯片设计

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并且启动市场

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美国卫星通信公司AST

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股价纪念日内低开高走

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盘初一度跌超12%

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尾盘收窄了大半跌幅

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它在昨天发射的第七颗宽带通信卫星呃

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搭载贝佐斯旗下blue o v镜的火箭

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从卡纳维拉尔角升空

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火箭第一级成功回收

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但是第二季能将卫星送入的轨道高度

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远低于计划

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卫星无法维持运行

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被迫脱离轨道被烧毁

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虽然公司说有保险兜底

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长期计划不变

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但是问题在于

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这次的事故暴露了

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他过度依赖单一发射供应商的风险

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所以接下来市场会重点盯着它

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后续是否改用其他更稳定的发射方案

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除了这次发射失败之外呢

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该股在过去一周的下跌

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还受到内部人士

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减持与竞争加剧等多重负面情绪影响

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奈飞股价上个周五大跌9.7%之后

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五五

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公司发布了一份不温不火的前瞻指引

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联合创始人兼董事长瑞泰斯汀尼意外离职

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但是散户对该公司前景仍抱有强烈信心哈

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根据王大way search数据显是

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散户投资者在上个周五买入了价值1.5

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22亿美元的那一菲股票

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创下单日最高买入记录

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美国稀土公司USAR股价今天大涨超13%

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公司宣布已经签署了最终协议

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以28亿美元收购巴西一家稀土开发商

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百分之百的股权

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后者拥有一座大型稀土矿与加工厂

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这交易方式包括给出3亿美元的现金

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并且发行大约1.268亿股股票

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交易呢将于今年第三季度完成

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稀土是AI军工电动车都离不开的关键材料

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而这个领域长期被中国主导

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美国现在明显是在加速去依赖

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所以这种并购不只是公司层面的利好

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更是地原和产业链重构的这个大趋势

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由于油价反弹

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航空股今年呢整体偏弱

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主要受两方面影响

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一个是油价反弹

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成本压力又上来了

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另一个是公司明确否认了与美联航合并的传闻

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认为此举呢将对市场竞争与消费者利益

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产生负面影响

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00:12:07,220 --> 00:12:10,539
原本市场对行业整合是有预期的哈

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现在就等于直接被泼了冷水

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所以呢短期情绪回落嗯

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黑莓blackberry今年大涨超10%

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3月内已经暴涨70%了

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消息面上

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黑莓与英伟达扩大了合作

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很多人还停留在做手机的黑莓啊

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但是现在它的核心其实是QNX操作系统

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这一次和英伟达扩大合作

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就是要把这一套系统用到AI机器人

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医疗设备这些高安全要求的场景里

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他在做AI时代的底层系统

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而且呢是偏安全认证这种门槛很高的领域

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这也是资金开始重新定价它的原因

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据报道

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公司的目标是在2027财年

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实现两位数的收入增长嗯

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00:12:55,739 --> 00:12:58,698
CMPS股价今天暴涨42%

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属于政策驱动型的行情

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因为川普今天在白宫签署了一项行政命令

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要求加快民方药在医疗领域的研究和应用

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还播了5000万美元的专项资金

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市场呢立刻就开始炒作这一个方向啊

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尤其是PTSD和整饮治疗相关的公司

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这个板块本来就小嘛

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一旦有政策催化

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资金很容易就集中爆发

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但是波动也会非常大哈

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就很符合那些生物科技公司的特征行

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今天我们就简单的说到这里

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那就等明天周二看

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伊朗到底是不是会参加谈判哈

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我们明天见拜拜

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