BV147wBzGERh · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:05,259 各位投资者，每年我们都会讨论比尔·埃克曼 2 00:00:05,259 --> 00:00:06,860 这位投资巨星 3 00:00:06,860 --> 00:00:10,259 这是他的年度战略报告更新 4 00:00:10,259 --> 00:00:17,399 每次都会与比尔·埃克曼讨论策略和最重要持仓 5 00:00:23,839 --> 00:00:25,120 对于不了解我的人 6 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:26,280 我叫范·哈伦 7 00:00:26,280 --> 00:00:29,640 我运营一个价值投资研究平台 8 00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:31,160 我分享我的投资组合 9 00:00:31,160 --> 00:00:32,219 提供免费买入建议 10 00:00:32,219 --> 00:00:33,359 如果你想查看 11 00:00:33,359 --> 00:00:33,700 这个 12 00:00:33,700 --> 00:00:38,329 欢迎补充我们讨论的背景信息 13 00:00:38,329 --> 00:00:41,009 但我们追求安全边际 14 00:00:41,009 --> 00:00:44,439 股东收益并创造回报 15 00:00:44,439 --> 00:00:46,399 通过持有企业 16 00:00:46,399 --> 00:00:49,200 与比尔·阿克曼略有不同 17 00:00:49,200 --> 00:00:49,899 不过没关系 18 00:00:49,899 --> 00:00:52,200 如果查看投资组合前十大持仓 19 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:52,979 布鲁克菲尔德 20 00:00:52,979 --> 00:00:54,710 Uber、亚马逊 21 00:00:54,710 --> 00:00:58,549 谷歌占其组合近半 22 00:00:58,549 --> 00:01:00,429 你持有60% 23 00:01:00,429 --> 00:01:01,659 在股票中 24 00:01:01,659 --> 00:01:03,140 高度集中 25 00:01:03,140 --> 00:01:05,140 尽管如此这种集中度 26 00:01:05,140 --> 00:01:05,680 他确实 27 00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:06,859 在管理你的资金 28 00:01:06,859 --> 00:01:08,310 再次管理我们的资金 29 00:01:08,310 --> 00:01:09,909 首先要建立 30 00:01:09,909 --> 00:01:13,430 能持久的结构 31 00:01:13,430 --> 00:01:16,150 比尔，时间在流逝 32 00:01:16,150 --> 00:01:16,930 这是个问题 33 00:01:16,930 --> 00:01:18,670 希望现在对他有效 34 00:01:18,670 --> 00:01:22,769 推出新基金或在美国上市 35 00:01:22,769 --> 00:01:24,689 筹集200亿美元 36 00:01:24,689 --> 00:01:25,409 不过 37 00:01:25,409 --> 00:01:27,069 董事会会议 38 00:01:27,310 --> 00:01:28,810 或许分红政策 39 00:01:28,810 --> 00:01:30,420 股票回购 40 00:01:30,420 --> 00:01:31,980 费用调整 41 00:01:31,980 --> 00:01:33,200 债务策略 42 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:33,939 霍华德 43 00:01:33,939 --> 00:01:35,859 重大战略交易 44 00:01:35,859 --> 00:01:37,439 低于净资产折价 45 00:01:37,439 --> 00:01:40,069 所有这些沃伦·巴菲特 46 00:01:40,069 --> 00:01:43,439 无需过多担忧的事 47 00:01:43,439 --> 00:01:46,000 回到业绩表现 48 00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:47,219 一年期业绩 49 00:01:47,219 --> 00:01:49,359 业绩表现无关紧要 50 00:01:49,359 --> 00:01:52,079 但我要关注的是 51 00:01:52,079 --> 00:01:54,459 沃伦·巴菲特做到了他所做的事情 52 00:01:54,459 --> 00:02:00,040 但比尔·阿克曼试图在市场游戏中击败市场 53 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:03,609 但这五年来并未奏效 54 00:02:03,609 --> 00:02:06,370 他未能战胜标普500 55 00:02:06,370 --> 00:02:07,069 五百点 56 00:02:07,069 --> 00:02:08,750 但他使用了杠杆 57 00:02:08,750 --> 00:02:10,479 这本应帮助他 58 00:02:10,479 --> 00:02:11,058 然而 59 00:02:11,058 --> 00:02:11,998 如果你聪明 60 00:02:11,998 --> 00:02:13,098 就不需要杠杆 61 00:02:13,098 --> 00:02:14,258 如果你不够聪明 62 00:02:14,258 --> 00:02:16,199 就不该使用它 63 00:02:16,199 --> 00:02:18,500 我认为比尔·埃克曼非常聪明 64 00:02:18,500 --> 00:02:20,240 所以他不需要杠杆 65 00:02:20,240 --> 00:02:21,329 例如 66 00:02:21,329 --> 00:02:22,368 但好吧 67 00:02:22,368 --> 00:02:22,848 你说 68 00:02:22,848 --> 00:02:26,049 投资组合的20% 69 00:02:26,049 --> 00:02:26,829 不算太多 70 00:02:26,829 --> 00:02:28,289 巴菲特拥有自己的浮存金 71 00:02:28,289 --> 00:02:29,789 但浮存金是免费的 72 00:02:29,789 --> 00:02:31,289 资金不计利息 73 00:02:31,289 --> 00:02:32,689 5%的杠杆 74 00:02:32,689 --> 00:02:35,180 这也是非常重要的一点 75 00:02:35,180 --> 00:02:38,580 然后他有策略应对折价 76 00:02:38,580 --> 00:02:40,400 我曾计算过这个折价 77 00:02:40,400 --> 00:02:43,569 如果计算税费 78 00:02:43,569 --> 00:02:46,770 作为投资者在清算时应支付 79 00:02:46,770 --> 00:02:48,710 这解释了折价的存在 80 00:02:48,710 --> 00:02:52,370 不过新ipo仍在推进 81 00:02:52,370 --> 00:02:54,009 稍微降低费用 82 00:02:54,009 --> 00:02:55,650 我们也会讨论这一点 83 00:02:55,650 --> 00:02:58,389 霍华德抓住了重大战略机会 84 00:02:58,389 --> 00:03:01,930 但长期来看这里是个糟糕的故事 85 00:03:01,930 --> 00:03:04,579 现在他进入保险行业 86 00:03:04,579 --> 00:03:09,438 2025年是过去十五年保险业最好的一年 87 00:03:09,438 --> 00:03:12,139 现在他在那里进行收购 88 00:03:12,139 --> 00:03:12,739 好的 89 00:03:12,739 --> 00:03:17,050 但业务全面增长势头良好 90 00:03:17,050 --> 00:03:19,590 没有人能反驳比尔 91 00:03:19,590 --> 00:03:22,919 因为他的表现非常出色 92 00:03:22,919 --> 00:03:24,360 但他的表现 93 00:03:24,360 --> 00:03:25,520 你看这个 94 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:28,539 你会觉得他是如何摧毁标普500的 95 00:03:28,539 --> 00:03:29,879 五百点看这个 96 00:03:29,879 --> 00:03:31,159 看看现在这个 97 00:03:31,159 --> 00:03:32,900 如果我这样展示图表 98 00:03:32,900 --> 00:03:34,419 会立即出现 99 00:03:34,419 --> 00:03:36,000 当需要对数刻度时 100 00:03:36,000 --> 00:03:37,669 它们应该被保留 101 00:03:37,669 --> 00:03:38,689 这应该是对的 102 00:03:38,689 --> 00:03:41,289 这完全正确 103 00:03:41,289 --> 00:03:44,759 过去五年没有击败市场 104 00:03:44,759 --> 00:03:49,060 这里有一个矛盾之处，他表现非常出色 105 00:03:49,060 --> 00:03:50,479 当市场下跌时 106 00:03:50,479 --> 00:03:52,810 他的投资组合却上涨 107 00:03:52,810 --> 00:03:55,979 因为他与高盛达成协议 108 00:03:55,979 --> 00:04:01,240 在疫情爆发前他就持续支付费用 109 00:04:01,240 --> 00:04:05,319 他迅速关闭交易并在一个月内赚取两亿美元 110 00:04:05,319 --> 00:04:08,229 这是他最成功的交易 111 00:04:08,229 --> 00:04:09,590 而差异化优势 112 00:04:09,590 --> 00:04:12,210 我们稍后会详细讨论 113 00:04:12,210 --> 00:04:14,150 如果我们看目标公司 114 00:04:14,150 --> 00:04:16,009 看起来像巴菲特 115 00:04:16,009 --> 00:04:17,490 可预测的现金流 116 00:04:17,490 --> 00:04:19,528 三重壁垒保护 117 00:04:19,528 --> 00:04:22,249 无外在价值暴露 118 00:04:22,249 --> 00:04:23,649 强劲的资产负债表 119 00:04:23,649 --> 00:04:24,869 有吸引力的估值 120 00:04:24,869 --> 00:04:26,788 资本依赖度低 121 00:04:26,788 --> 00:04:29,480 因此无需新资本 122 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:31,439 市值庞大 123 00:04:31,439 --> 00:04:32,339 优秀的管理层 124 00:04:32,339 --> 00:04:35,720 看来巴菲特自己写了这些 125 00:04:35,720 --> 00:04:39,029 现在来看股票投资组合发展 126 00:04:39,029 --> 00:04:42,418 赫兹、亚马逊、Meta、Chipotle 127 00:04:42,418 --> 00:04:45,199 加拿大太平洋、希尔顿、耐克 128 00:04:45,199 --> 00:04:50,529 计划买入亚马逊AWS增长业务 129 00:04:50,529 --> 00:04:54,029 Meta AI增长、酒店业复苏 130 00:04:54,029 --> 00:04:59,189 他认为市场将持续高速增长 131 00:04:59,189 --> 00:05:02,319 因此市场应享有更高估值 132 00:05:02,319 --> 00:05:06,120 他试图复制巴菲特在目标中的策略 133 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:09,589 比尔·埃克曼全力激进投资 134 00:05:09,589 --> 00:05:12,610 巴菲特将伯克希尔交给格雷格 135 00:05:12,610 --> 00:05:15,790 手中持有三百七十亿美元现金 136 00:05:15,790 --> 00:05:20,470 我们很快会讨论另一个原因 137 00:05:20,470 --> 00:05:23,569 但纵观其策略 138 00:05:23,569 --> 00:05:28,339 他认为持仓被低估 139 00:05:28,339 --> 00:05:31,759 收益增长快于市场 140 00:05:31,759 --> 00:05:34,399 这就是他击败市场的方法 141 00:05:34,399 --> 00:05:38,250 关键是他必须击败市场 142 00:05:38,250 --> 00:05:41,649 因为绩效提成机制 143 00:05:41,649 --> 00:05:42,709 16% 144 00:05:42,709 --> 00:05:44,329 管理费1% 145 00:05:44,329 --> 00:05:45,310 5%的费率 146 00:05:45,310 --> 00:05:48,600 即使仅跑赢市场10% 147 00:05:48,600 --> 00:05:50,339 计算这些费用后 148 00:05:50,339 --> 00:05:53,000 净收益低30个基点 149 00:05:53,000 --> 00:05:54,540 与市场持平 150 00:05:54,540 --> 00:05:57,110 他的资产已缩水40% 151 00:05:57,110 --> 00:06:00,329 他需要通过三百点来击败市场 152 00:06:00,329 --> 00:06:03,819 然后还要更多才能证明现状 153 00:06:03,819 --> 00:06:08,019 如果我们看他结构调整后的表现 154 00:06:08,019 --> 00:06:12,470 自普林斯顿广场ipo以来 155 00:06:12,470 --> 00:06:14,810 因为我总是关注他的数据 156 00:06:14,810 --> 00:06:16,389 但这是ipo事件 157 00:06:16,389 --> 00:06:18,410 所以我们必须从ipo开始分析 158 00:06:18,410 --> 00:06:19,850 评估业绩表现 159 00:06:19,850 --> 00:06:21,899 从这里到那里 160 00:06:21,899 --> 00:06:23,730 从这里到此处 161 00:06:23,730 --> 00:06:30,168 我让助理计算了一下，结果是五百万零点 162 00:06:30,168 --> 00:06:32,930 零点四百分比费用 163 00:06:32,930 --> 00:06:33,990 像kman一样 164 00:06:33,990 --> 00:06:35,689 三费率或更高 165 00:06:35,689 --> 00:06:38,050 这是总股东回报率 166 00:06:38,050 --> 00:06:40,449 但让我们去美国再赚两个 167 00:06:40,449 --> 00:06:46,399 从不了解计算的人那里获得五亿 168 00:06:46,399 --> 00:06:48,480 不过仍有机会 169 00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:50,019 他的谷歌叙事 170 00:06:50,019 --> 00:06:51,899 他在谷歌做得很好 171 00:06:51,899 --> 00:06:54,048 在正确时机买入 172 00:06:54,048 --> 00:06:55,168 真令人佩服 173 00:06:55,168 --> 00:06:56,749 这里无可挑剔 174 00:06:56,749 --> 00:06:58,310 接下来是优步 175 00:06:58,310 --> 00:07:00,769 在低估值下实现大幅增长 176 00:07:00,769 --> 00:07:02,389 应主导市场 177 00:07:02,389 --> 00:07:02,930 亚马逊 178 00:07:02,930 --> 00:07:03,939 同样如此 179 00:07:03,939 --> 00:07:05,990 他可能正确 180 00:07:06,350 --> 00:07:09,069 Facebook的AI尚未被定价 181 00:07:09,069 --> 00:07:10,709 他在那里可能正确 182 00:07:10,709 --> 00:07:11,509 布鲁克菲尔德 183 00:07:11,509 --> 00:07:13,050 最大持仓 184 00:07:13,050 --> 00:07:15,279 优秀的资产管理费 185 00:07:15,279 --> 00:07:17,060 结构性布局 186 00:07:17,060 --> 00:07:17,839 解决方案 187 00:07:17,839 --> 00:07:19,930 这类管理事项 188 00:07:19,930 --> 00:07:23,930 目标在2032年实现每股七元收益 189 00:07:23,930 --> 00:07:25,959 五%复利增长 190 00:07:25,959 --> 00:07:27,759 而比尔·拉克曼在追逐 191 00:07:27,759 --> 00:07:29,879 曾制作过几段相关视频 192 00:07:29,879 --> 00:07:33,199 如果你想学习又想笑 193 00:07:33,199 --> 00:07:34,720 看看这个视频 194 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:37,019 将链接放在下方描述 195 00:07:37,019 --> 00:07:38,720 他以合理价格买入 196 00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:40,040 现在我们到了四 197 00:07:40,040 --> 00:07:40,959 八或类似价位 198 00:07:40,959 --> 00:07:42,680 仍保持正向 199 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:43,899 我们将讨论这点 200 00:07:43,899 --> 00:07:45,100 当我说出我的观点时 201 00:07:45,100 --> 00:07:49,870 这只是在讨论比尔·拉克斯曼现在迅速扩张的业务 202 00:07:49,870 --> 00:07:51,149 指数级增长 203 00:07:51,149 --> 00:07:52,149 那里没问题 204 00:07:52,149 --> 00:07:54,129 但你仍可以关注价格 205 00:07:54,129 --> 00:07:58,620 几乎和比尔·埃曼的房利美一样好 206 00:07:58,620 --> 00:08:00,680 对此我没什么可评论的 207 00:08:00,680 --> 00:08:02,439 那里没有理解 208 00:08:02,439 --> 00:08:05,860 亚马逊大投资者收购超大规模云服务商 209 00:08:05,860 --> 00:08:08,439 AWS 没有问题 210 00:08:08,439 --> 00:08:13,158 我认为这对比尔·布莱克曼基金是个好位置 211 00:08:13,158 --> 00:08:17,180 然后我们有长期挣扎的项目 212 00:08:17,180 --> 00:08:20,040 尤其是比尔·拉克斯曼介入后 213 00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:22,120 我们稍后详细讨论 214 00:08:22,120 --> 00:08:24,410 但他关注增长 215 00:08:24,410 --> 00:08:26,689 或许这是他最大的错误 216 00:08:26,689 --> 00:08:28,110 市盈率18倍 217 00:08:28,110 --> 00:08:30,370 收益17倍 218 00:08:30,370 --> 00:08:31,870 这并不便宜 219 00:08:31,870 --> 00:08:35,309 市盈率7倍是我的持仓 220 00:08:35,309 --> 00:08:35,990 这很便宜 221 00:08:35,990 --> 00:08:37,350 这就是结果 222 00:08:37,350 --> 00:08:39,720 这里可以交易25倍 223 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:41,240 甚至能提升收益 224 00:08:41,240 --> 00:08:43,399 但若现在以17倍交易 225 00:08:43,559 --> 00:08:44,720 毫无变化 226 00:08:44,720 --> 00:08:46,940 谷歌是时候卖出了吗 227 00:08:46,940 --> 00:08:48,559 比尔你赚够了 228 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:49,179 好的 229 00:08:49,179 --> 00:08:51,470 Meta击败市场 230 00:08:51,470 --> 00:08:52,870 试图击败市场 231 00:08:52,870 --> 00:08:55,909 这类事情会拖累反转 232 00:08:55,909 --> 00:08:57,909 不会过多关注 233 00:08:57,909 --> 00:09:00,009 如果Uber成功 234 00:09:00,009 --> 00:09:01,110 赫兹就完了 235 00:09:01,110 --> 00:09:03,529 如果自动驾驶车成功 236 00:09:03,529 --> 00:09:04,789 这行业就没了 237 00:09:04,789 --> 00:09:05,870 Chipotle 238 00:09:05,870 --> 00:09:07,649 他卖出稍晚了 239 00:09:07,649 --> 00:09:09,029 但他买入很明智 240 00:09:09,029 --> 00:09:09,909 好吧 241 00:09:09,909 --> 00:09:11,470 仍赚了些钱 242 00:09:11,470 --> 00:09:12,309 耐克 243 00:09:12,309 --> 00:09:13,210 他已退出 244 00:09:13,210 --> 00:09:13,850 好的 245 00:09:13,850 --> 00:09:16,669 让我们了解几个业务 246 00:09:16,669 --> 00:09:20,048 我们刚讨论过亚马逊视频 247 00:09:20,048 --> 00:09:22,440 大家都在理性买入 248 00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:25,589 亚马逊是优质业务 249 00:09:25,589 --> 00:09:27,408 一切都在巨大增长 250 00:09:27,408 --> 00:09:29,009 AWS需求旺盛 251 00:09:29,009 --> 00:09:32,269 市场似乎并没有对此做出反应 252 00:09:32,269 --> 00:09:35,629 它害怕资本支出扩张 253 00:09:35,629 --> 00:09:38,289 在亚马逊的情况下这仍可能是好事 254 00:09:38,289 --> 00:09:40,580 因为利润率非常高 255 00:09:40,580 --> 00:09:42,919 你可以查看我的亚马逊视频获取更多信息 256 00:09:42,919 --> 00:09:45,330 但这里的情况很糟糕 257 00:09:45,330 --> 00:09:47,409 亚马逊能否击败市场 258 00:09:47,409 --> 00:09:50,139 他需要增速快于市场 259 00:09:50,139 --> 00:09:53,539 他需要提升市场估值倍数 260 00:09:53,539 --> 00:09:56,299 这是投资还是赌博 261 00:09:56,299 --> 00:09:58,159 当我审视这个投资组合 262 00:09:58,159 --> 00:09:58,840 布鲁克菲尔德 263 00:09:58,840 --> 00:09:59,860 私募股权 264 00:09:59,860 --> 00:10:01,399 他为何收购布鲁克菲尔德 265 00:10:01,399 --> 00:10:03,299 因为当时股价在上涨 266 00:10:03,299 --> 00:10:05,740 私募股权是热门投资故事 267 00:10:05,740 --> 00:10:08,629 而现在这个故事开始反转 268 00:10:08,629 --> 00:10:12,190 我们将讨论布鲁克菲尔德的全面增长 269 00:10:12,190 --> 00:10:14,070 但当我观察布鲁克菲尔德 270 00:10:14,070 --> 00:10:15,409 正如我在这些视频中分析的 271 00:10:15,409 --> 00:10:17,720 当我审视他们的投资标的 272 00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:18,480 你可以查看 273 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:18,679 另外 274 00:10:18,679 --> 00:10:20,820 我的私募股权泡沫视频 275 00:10:20,820 --> 00:10:24,980 最近有人称赞我精准预测了这一点 276 00:10:24,980 --> 00:10:26,740 然后当我分析布鲁克菲尔德 277 00:10:26,740 --> 00:10:27,820 你会说斯文 278 00:10:27,820 --> 00:10:29,639 你分析不够深入 279 00:10:29,639 --> 00:10:30,320 好吧 280 00:10:30,320 --> 00:10:31,279 一切都很完美 281 00:10:31,279 --> 00:10:33,379 这就是他们估值企业的方式 282 00:10:33,379 --> 00:10:36,210 所以市场给出48倍 283 00:10:36,210 --> 00:10:38,429 但他们给出68倍 284 00:10:38,429 --> 00:10:40,710 这就是他们估值所有业务的方法 285 00:10:40,710 --> 00:10:42,750 因为他们使用这个数字 286 00:10:42,750 --> 00:10:45,029 这些是可分配收益 287 00:10:45,029 --> 00:10:47,809 实际实现的只有这个 288 00:10:47,809 --> 00:10:48,909 他们能出售的部分 289 00:10:48,909 --> 00:10:51,600 然后我看他们投入200亿 290 00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:53,980 AI领域大家都在投资 291 00:10:53,980 --> 00:10:55,639 AI投入100亿 292 00:10:55,639 --> 00:10:56,700 AI基础设施 293 00:10:56,700 --> 00:10:57,740 优势何在 294 00:10:57,740 --> 00:11:00,909 我在收购Phoor方面 295 00:11:00,909 --> 00:11:01,789 类似这样的操作 296 00:11:01,789 --> 00:11:03,730 我稍微看一下息税前利润 297 00:11:03,730 --> 00:11:06,669 或他们以20倍市盈率收购 298 00:11:06,669 --> 00:11:09,740 甚至更高15倍EBITDA 299 00:11:09,740 --> 00:11:12,279 当他们收购这家公司时 300 00:11:12,279 --> 00:11:14,500 法国非可再生能源 301 00:11:14,500 --> 00:11:15,080 我说过 302 00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:15,539 好的 303 00:11:15,539 --> 00:11:16,379 这太疯狂了 304 00:11:16,379 --> 00:11:17,889 这个价值是两百亿 305 00:11:17,889 --> 00:11:19,370 他们支付了六百亿 306 00:11:19,370 --> 00:11:20,450 因为他们可以借贷 307 00:11:20,450 --> 00:11:21,610 他们能找到股权 308 00:11:21,610 --> 00:11:24,970 但如果你为价值真实 309 00:11:24,970 --> 00:11:26,100 账面价值 310 00:11:26,100 --> 00:11:27,100 创造价值 311 00:11:27,100 --> 00:11:28,240 收益率 312 00:11:28,240 --> 00:11:29,929 这里有两百亿 313 00:11:29,929 --> 00:11:30,809 长期来看 314 00:11:30,809 --> 00:11:31,769 你可以赚钱 315 00:11:31,769 --> 00:11:34,549 只靠承诺和金融工程 316 00:11:34,549 --> 00:11:36,870 他们就这样不断重复 317 00:11:36,870 --> 00:11:38,730 继续借贷扩张 318 00:11:38,730 --> 00:11:41,429 我不需要深入分析 319 00:11:41,429 --> 00:11:43,730 这是答疑视频 320 00:11:43,730 --> 00:11:44,309 所有这些 321 00:11:44,309 --> 00:11:46,090 当你不够深入挖掘 322 00:11:46,090 --> 00:11:46,490 是的 323 00:11:46,490 --> 00:11:46,929 我是 324 00:11:46,929 --> 00:11:47,850 我知道足够多 325 00:11:47,850 --> 00:11:49,169 我已经看够了 326 00:11:49,169 --> 00:11:50,339 引用 327 00:11:50,339 --> 00:11:51,458 查理·芒格 328 00:11:51,458 --> 00:11:53,799 小心未结的账目 329 00:11:53,799 --> 00:11:55,159 按市价计价 330 00:11:55,159 --> 00:11:56,340 按模型估值 331 00:11:56,340 --> 00:11:59,080 私募债权在私募股权中的操作 332 00:11:59,080 --> 00:12:01,980 就是按目标估值 333 00:12:01,980 --> 00:12:04,259 按模型估值的危险 334 00:12:04,259 --> 00:12:10,769 私募或非流动性基金报告的高回报与真实价值脱节 335 00:12:10,769 --> 00:12:12,909 市场波动现实 336 00:12:12,909 --> 00:12:14,799 祝你好运比尔 337 00:12:14,799 --> 00:12:17,240 在赌注上投入16%的组合 338 00:12:17,240 --> 00:12:17,799 为什么 339 00:12:17,799 --> 00:12:19,639 因为你需要跑赢市场 340 00:12:19,639 --> 00:12:21,809 你只想搭这趟顺风车 341 00:12:21,809 --> 00:12:25,169 你后悔没抓住这次机会 342 00:12:25,169 --> 00:12:27,889 安东尼·罗宾斯在这里开了公司 343 00:12:27,889 --> 00:12:28,250 现在 344 00:12:28,250 --> 00:12:29,509 这看起来很糟糕 345 00:12:29,509 --> 00:12:31,230 押注Uber 346 00:12:31,230 --> 00:12:31,870 为什么 347 00:12:31,870 --> 00:12:35,230 因为你称其市盈率是21倍 348 00:12:35,230 --> 00:12:36,019 盈利 349 00:12:36,019 --> 00:12:37,759 但市场不认同 350 00:12:37,759 --> 00:12:38,340 好吧 351 00:12:38,340 --> 00:12:39,220 一切都很棒 352 00:12:39,220 --> 00:12:40,460 自动驾驶汽车 353 00:12:40,460 --> 00:12:42,490 覆盖整个美国 354 00:12:42,490 --> 00:12:45,230 世界企业仍在增长 355 00:12:45,230 --> 00:12:46,379 一切都很棒 356 00:12:46,379 --> 00:12:51,639 但所有数据均基于非公认会计准则收入 357 00:12:51,639 --> 00:12:53,720 并非真实现金流 358 00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:57,740 大量股票期权补偿需仔细核查数字 359 00:12:57,740 --> 00:13:03,818 扣除拨备后净利润并非十亿美元 360 00:13:03,818 --> 00:13:05,479 所得税优惠带来的收益 361 00:13:05,479 --> 00:13:07,599 真实净利润为五亿美元 362 00:13:07,599 --> 00:13:09,940 五亿一百五十万 363 00:13:09,940 --> 00:13:11,360 市盈率并非两倍 364 00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:14,279 单边估值为一亿四千万 365 00:13:14,279 --> 00:13:16,139 若扣除股票期权 366 00:13:16,139 --> 00:13:16,860 则为五十亿 367 00:13:16,860 --> 00:13:18,139 诸如此类 368 00:13:18,139 --> 00:13:19,799 这是一场赌注 369 00:13:19,799 --> 00:13:20,820 如果成功 370 00:13:20,820 --> 00:13:23,120 比利的自尊将冲上云霄 371 00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:23,879 如果失败 372 00:13:24,919 --> 00:13:25,600 我不知道 373 00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:27,879 没人关心图表 374 00:13:27,879 --> 00:13:29,059 我们从头开始 375 00:13:29,059 --> 00:13:32,110 这是他最后的IPO承诺 376 00:13:32,110 --> 00:13:32,490 现在 377 00:13:32,490 --> 00:13:34,190 他正在寻求新资金 378 00:13:34,190 --> 00:13:39,179 因为这就是赌博投资的本质 379 00:13:39,179 --> 00:13:41,409 如果我们看Facebook 380 00:13:41,409 --> 00:13:42,590 我拍了一段视频 381 00:13:42,590 --> 00:13:43,169 太 382 00:13:43,169 --> 00:13:43,549 便宜 383 00:13:43,549 --> 00:13:46,429 市值两百六十六亿 384 00:13:46,429 --> 00:13:49,379 股价九十九点二 385 00:13:49,379 --> 00:13:50,580 为什么比尔没买 386 00:13:50,580 --> 00:13:51,100 埃克曼 387 00:13:51,100 --> 00:13:51,899 那时就该买入 388 00:13:51,899 --> 00:13:53,220 这就是我不理解的地方 389 00:13:53,220 --> 00:13:53,960 他有一支团队 390 00:13:53,960 --> 00:13:55,059 他有专业知识 391 00:13:55,059 --> 00:13:56,179 他拥有所有资源 392 00:13:56,179 --> 00:13:58,450 如果他想拥有Facebook 393 00:13:58,450 --> 00:14:00,230 那时就应该买入 394 00:14:00,230 --> 00:14:02,159 现在才在购买 395 00:14:02,159 --> 00:14:03,899 基于人工智能 396 00:14:03,899 --> 00:14:06,259 这必须调整 397 00:14:06,259 --> 00:14:06,679 好吧 398 00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:07,519 仍然很便宜 399 00:14:07,519 --> 00:14:09,500 调整后 400 00:14:09,500 --> 00:14:12,059 嗯，漂亮的操作，比尔的拨备 401 00:14:12,059 --> 00:14:13,879 每股收益三十 402 00:14:13,879 --> 00:14:14,620 好的 403 00:14:14,620 --> 00:14:17,419 但现在这是房间里的大象 404 00:14:17,419 --> 00:14:19,839 资本支出将带来回报 405 00:14:19,839 --> 00:14:20,798 我们拭目以待 406 00:14:20,798 --> 00:14:22,879 这现在是个问题 407 00:14:22,879 --> 00:14:25,450 所以他正在问题中买入 408 00:14:25,450 --> 00:14:26,909 又在押注 409 00:14:26,909 --> 00:14:31,649 他们正将其推高至一百二十亿现金流资本支出 410 00:14:31,649 --> 00:14:33,269 这简直疯狂 411 00:14:33,269 --> 00:14:36,789 环球音乐集团承诺增长同样如此 412 00:14:36,789 --> 00:14:37,909 然后我看 413 00:14:37,909 --> 00:14:38,409 好的 414 00:14:38,409 --> 00:14:39,789 确实有增长 415 00:14:39,789 --> 00:14:43,409 泰勒·斯威夫特仍在创造净利润 416 00:14:43,409 --> 00:14:44,490 每股收益 417 00:14:44,490 --> 00:14:46,529 没有实质增长 418 00:14:46,529 --> 00:14:49,450 而这都是调整后的数据 419 00:14:49,450 --> 00:14:51,250 当我看自由现金流时 420 00:14:51,250 --> 00:14:54,210 这是七千万欧元的自由现金流 421 00:14:54,210 --> 00:14:55,740 市值在这里 422 00:14:55,740 --> 00:14:57,340 市盈率 423 00:14:57,340 --> 00:14:59,139 市价与市值比为十五 424 00:14:59,139 --> 00:15:00,179 不是十七 425 00:15:00,179 --> 00:15:01,889 不算便宜 426 00:15:02,129 --> 00:15:04,029 比尔·埃克曼在赌博 427 00:15:04,029 --> 00:15:07,980 他没有投资真正的价值创造 428 00:15:07,980 --> 00:15:10,620 他是在赌博式投资 429 00:15:10,620 --> 00:15:12,700 因为他需要那个市场 430 00:15:12,700 --> 00:15:14,320 他必须击败对手 431 00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:16,610 他需要证明自己的费用 432 00:15:16,610 --> 00:15:19,879 否则他的帝国将崩塌 433 00:15:19,879 --> 00:15:23,679 我不认为贝莱德现在处境良好 434 00:15:23,679 --> 00:15:25,169 无业绩表现 435 00:15:25,169 --> 00:15:26,350 他的赌博行为 436 00:15:26,350 --> 00:15:31,090 那个十年前拯救他的大交易 437 00:15:31,090 --> 00:15:32,429 仅仅在 438 00:15:32,429 --> 00:15:37,600 人们以为他投入两千万赚取两亿 439 00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:39,659 他与高盛达成协议 440 00:15:39,659 --> 00:15:44,539 每月支付两亿六千万负溢价 441 00:15:44,539 --> 00:15:49,960 两年内支付两百多亿以获取保护 442 00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:52,649 若疫情未按此发展 443 00:15:52,649 --> 00:15:54,769 若他未及时套现 444 00:15:54,769 --> 00:15:55,948 在正确时机 445 00:15:55,948 --> 00:15:56,469 运气 446 00:15:56,469 --> 00:15:57,448 运气运气 447 00:15:57,448 --> 00:16:01,078 这将成为其回报的干扰 448 00:16:01,078 --> 00:16:04,259 不是这次赌注带来的救赎 449 00:16:04,259 --> 00:16:05,399 这也是个问题 450 00:16:05,399 --> 00:16:06,479 人们已遗忘 451 00:16:06,479 --> 00:16:07,519 这就是投资 452 00:16:07,519 --> 00:16:09,389 而比尔的自负 453 00:16:09,389 --> 00:16:12,470 这完全是自负的表现压力 454 00:16:12,470 --> 00:16:15,539 因为你可能听不到 455 00:16:15,539 --> 00:16:17,659 但他每天都会接到电话 456 00:16:17,659 --> 00:16:19,080 如果我支付一个点 457 00:16:19,080 --> 00:16:22,639 五个百分点加百分之六十绩效奖励 458 00:16:22,639 --> 00:16:27,379 十年间五年都没跑赢市场 459 00:16:27,379 --> 00:16:31,419 这不会让投资者满意 460 00:16:31,419 --> 00:16:37,129 实际上看这里这是比尔·埃克曼的明星级表现 461 00:16:37,129 --> 00:16:45,909 但他十二年来一直跑输市场，年均-3% 462 00:16:45,909 --> 00:16:48,970 这可是个大问题 463 00:16:48,970 --> 00:16:51,610 我担心比尔的睡眠质量 464 00:16:53,389 --> 00:16:54,828 这些都是赌博行为 465 00:16:54,828 --> 00:16:59,408 如果AI创造繁荣并引发竞争 466 00:16:59,408 --> 00:17:01,870 自动驾驶竞争 467 00:17:01,870 --> 00:17:03,309 风险很高 468 00:17:03,309 --> 00:17:04,950 而且风险更大 469 00:17:04,950 --> 00:17:06,589 因为它并不简单 470 00:17:06,589 --> 00:17:08,710 现金流不可预测 471 00:17:08,710 --> 00:17:09,609 或许如此 472 00:17:09,609 --> 00:17:11,569 不错的业务亚马逊 473 00:17:11,569 --> 00:17:16,009 但优步的进入壁垒有限 474 00:17:16,009 --> 00:17:19,829 或许并非如此，布鲁克菲尔德没有竞争优势 475 00:17:19,829 --> 00:17:22,118 大家都在追逐这些交易 476 00:17:22,118 --> 00:17:24,398 有限的内在价值暴露 477 00:17:24,398 --> 00:17:26,429 衰退风险 478 00:17:26,429 --> 00:17:27,969 巨大暴露 479 00:17:27,969 --> 00:17:29,769 强劲的财务状况 480 00:17:29,769 --> 00:17:32,189 你的最大持仓是私募股权 481 00:17:32,189 --> 00:17:33,440 高度杠杆化 482 00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:34,940 有吸引力的估值 483 00:17:34,940 --> 00:17:36,500 有吸引力的估值是P 484 00:17:36,500 --> 00:17:38,380 7到12倍的市盈率 485 00:17:38,380 --> 00:17:40,380 伯克希尔在等待 486 00:17:40,380 --> 00:17:41,180 非同行业 487 00:17:41,180 --> 00:17:43,079 17到25倍的市盈率 488 00:17:43,079 --> 00:17:44,240 然后我们应对 489 00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:46,460 对资本市场的依赖度低 490 00:17:46,460 --> 00:17:46,819 好的 491 00:17:46,819 --> 00:17:49,159 那里的业务还行 492 00:17:49,159 --> 00:17:50,919 市值庞大 493 00:17:50,919 --> 00:17:54,730 为什么我要为这些自己能做的事支付费用 494 00:17:54,730 --> 00:17:55,490 我自己 495 00:17:55,490 --> 00:17:58,199 卓越的管理与政府 496 00:17:58,519 --> 00:18:01,199 我总能从比尔身上学到东西 497 00:18:01,199 --> 00:18:01,778 呃 498 00:18:01,778 --> 00:18:02,818 我非常悲观 499 00:18:02,818 --> 00:18:05,319 因为这不符合我的风格 500 00:18:05,319 --> 00:18:07,799 所以我知道评论会很糟糕 501 00:18:07,799 --> 00:18:09,599 因为我讨论了所有这些公司 502 00:18:09,599 --> 00:18:13,068 但在这个市场中，比尔·阿克曼在追逐 503 00:18:13,068 --> 00:18:16,750 业绩正在追逐新ipo带来的数十亿美元 504 00:18:16,750 --> 00:18:18,230 他需要这样的业绩 505 00:18:18,230 --> 00:18:23,009 他必须表现良好以获得ipo更好的局面 506 00:18:23,009 --> 00:18:24,789 这就是他专注的方向 507 00:18:24,789 --> 00:18:25,410 持续不断地 508 00:18:25,410 --> 00:18:29,180 不断在这边那边发布战略更新 509 00:18:29,180 --> 00:18:32,440 而不是单纯投入他的两亿美元 510 00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:35,670 并非总是追逐这种伟大 511 00:18:35,670 --> 00:18:39,289 我认为他现在所做的并非有效 512 00:18:39,289 --> 00:18:42,589 他所有的希望都寄托在自己身上 513 00:18:42,589 --> 00:18:44,950 如果他专注自身 514 00:18:44,950 --> 00:18:46,750 管理好自己的两亿美元 515 00:18:46,750 --> 00:18:49,470 他可能拥有比现在更多的财富 516 00:18:49,470 --> 00:18:51,099 但你有员工 517 00:18:51,099 --> 00:18:54,130 沃伦·巴菲特很少有主题 518 00:18:54,130 --> 00:18:55,990 像这样的结构 519 00:18:55,990 --> 00:18:58,150 纽约高盛 520 00:18:58,150 --> 00:18:59,909 朋友这边那边 521 00:18:59,909 --> 00:19:03,848 这就是比尔的不幸故事 522 00:19:03,848 --> 00:19:06,568 我过去几年一直有这种感觉 523 00:19:06,568 --> 00:19:08,429 这正在得到证实 524 00:19:08,429 --> 00:19:10,569 我们见证了业绩表现 525 00:19:10,809 --> 00:19:11,210 好的 526 00:19:11,210 --> 00:19:12,809 我们都在某个地方经历过 527 00:19:12,809 --> 00:19:15,089 过去八年上涨15% 528 00:19:15,089 --> 00:19:17,210 我做到了市场也做到了比尔 529 00:19:17,210 --> 00:19:18,630 很可能做到了 530 00:19:18,910 --> 00:19:20,369 但区别在于 531 00:19:20,369 --> 00:19:22,009 我不在追逐 532 00:19:22,009 --> 00:19:23,170 我不做这样的承诺 533 00:19:23,170 --> 00:19:24,650 我要跑赢市场 534 00:19:24,650 --> 00:19:26,190 我试图寻找企业 535 00:19:26,190 --> 00:19:26,730 在 536 00:19:26,730 --> 00:19:29,999 我每年获得10%到12%的收益 537 00:19:29,999 --> 00:19:31,439 从盈利角度来看 538 00:19:31,439 --> 00:19:32,098 增长 539 00:19:32,098 --> 00:19:33,318 仅此而已 540 00:19:33,318 --> 00:19:36,179 市场如何表现无关紧要 541 00:19:36,179 --> 00:19:38,250 所以只是稍有不同 542 00:19:38,250 --> 00:19:42,170 我认为我的生活比比尔更愉快 543 00:19:42,170 --> 00:19:44,150 都是个人偏好 544 00:19:44,150 --> 00:19:46,049 祝他好运 545 00:19:46,049 --> 00:19:48,710 希望他的赌注成功 546 00:19:48,710 --> 00:19:52,480 这不太可能实现 547 00:19:52,480 --> 00:19:56,960 如果没有重大新闻或变化 548 00:19:56,960 --> 00:19:58,949 希望你喜欢这个内容 549 00:19:58,949 --> 00:20:01,409 看看他的投资方式 550 00:20:01,409 --> 00:20:02,209 适合你 551 00:20:02,209 --> 00:20:03,559 我们下次视频见
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