【Seeking Alpha】Costco 是避风港还是估值泡沫？

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过去表现并不预示未来结果

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除非另有说明，内容仅作信息参考

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参与视频的所有个人均为第三方，包括专业投资者和散户投资者

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除非另有说明

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所表达的观点或意见未必代表Seeking Alpha整体立场

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共享内容的准确性和完整性无法保证

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Seeking Alpha未考虑您的投资目标或财务状况

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且不提供个性化投资建议

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Seeking Alpha并非持牌证券经纪商

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经纪

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U

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S

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投资顾问或投资银行

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嘿

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大家好

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我是Nicole

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Benjamin，这里是Seeking Alpha的主持人

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为您带来我们系列节目Portfolio Pulse的又一期

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正如名称所示

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我们将持续关注

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当前市场中的重大金融动向

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本期节目

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我有幸邀请到了Jack Bowman

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Jack

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谢谢大家今天来到这里

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是的，谢谢Nicole邀请我

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当然

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Jack，我想和你聊聊

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绝对没问题

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Jack

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我想和你谈谈

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你从2023年起就在Seeking Alpha平台

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请介绍一下你在金融领域的背景

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是什么让你产生兴趣

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关于你的

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投资理念

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是的

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以前我曾

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接受过传统教师培训

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多年来一直在高中教授经济学

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然后在2021年

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我取得了金融顾问资格

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开始从事投资顾问工作

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通过这份工作我发现自己非常喜欢沟通环节

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我喜欢向客户传达我的见解

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喜欢撰写季度报告

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后来我意识到

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我其实希望更频繁地分享

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我不想收到更多你的消息

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所以接下来我该从哪里开始和人交流呢

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我可以开始在Seeking Alpha上发布我的观点和想法

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这获得了相当不错的反响

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我现在差不多到了

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你知道的

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现在已经有九千多关注者了

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我对这个结果非常满意

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也很高兴读者们的反馈

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但我渐渐被人称为这个

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宏观策略专家

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很多时候我在讨论美联储

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我在谈论通胀和GDP

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偶尔也会涉及我的股票挑选策略

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这里有时我会大获成功，有时也会失误

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我认为投资者需要记住这一点

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当我谈论股票时

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这只是我投资组合的一部分

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我总资产的15%投入股票挑选

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在这部分资产中

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Costco是我持仓较大的一只，且长期持有

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我投资Costco已经十多年了

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这真是太棒了

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你知道的

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考虑到你最近关于Costco的文章

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借这个话题延伸

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作为你投资组合中的最爱股票之一

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我想和你聊聊这个

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你最近提到Costco是 vibe session 的主要受益者

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你知道的

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消费者在通胀压力下感到捉襟见肘

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他们希望每一分钱花得更值

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根据你的研究

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你观察到什么

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什么

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会员数据中的具体证据是什么

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甚至 Kirkland 品牌的销售数据

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能证明消费者真的转向Costco

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而不是仅仅

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你知道的

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临时抢购各种优惠

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是的

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首先我要向Kyla Scton致谢

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她

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她

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她创造了' vibe session' 这个术语

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我觉得

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这个词精准描述了当前状况，我们来看

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哦

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通胀率已降至2.5%

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如果你问任何消费者

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杂货店，而且这很痛

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他们就像

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这远远超过那个数字

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这简直是谎言对吧

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他们不相信这些头条数据

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因为感觉不到这种变化

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Costco提供了这种缓解

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我想提醒大家注意的是

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Costco并非所有商品都是低毛利低价

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但足够多且非常具体的东西

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他们以热狗和啊

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旋转烤鸡闻名

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他们甚至亏本销售

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对吧

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每次卖出一只鸡

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他们就亏损一美元五角

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但人们觉得在Costco能更省钱

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我们在2022年后看到这一点

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会员增长率远超之前水平

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除了疫情引发的数字化爆炸

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但

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嗯

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随着通胀持续加剧

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因为通胀已经持续了一段时间

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即使五周后我们仍高于目标

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美联储曾说一年内会低于目标

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但一年后我们仍高于目标

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如果你想要

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你知道的

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缓解这种压力

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就去Costco

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这对Costco并非全是坏事

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我们看到 Kirkland 签名系列

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他们以远高于其他企业的价格销售通用商品

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我说的通用商品

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即自有品牌产品

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对吧

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克罗格有自己的私有品牌

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还有山姆会员店的

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但他们有自己的自有品牌

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在品牌价值方面

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我想回到之前

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你说低毛利对吧

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但这并非总是如此

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但在这种情况下

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这难道不是财务风险吗

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相比

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其他竞争对手

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是的

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低毛利确实存在风险

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这一点在当前尤其明显

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比如现在汽油价格就是这样

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伊朗的冲突我不多说了

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但伊朗的冲突显著推高了油价

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冲突开始几天后油价上涨了11%

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我们现在到了第七天

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这涨幅巨大

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人们开始涌向油价更低的地区

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比如Costco但Costco几乎在汽油上亏钱

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他们赚得很少，利润率非常薄

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当新闻报道人们去Costco加油时

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在财报电话会上股价略有下跌

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人们议论道

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哦

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如果人们去Costco加油

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他们不一定进店购物

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和买鸡肉热狗不同

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以及所有这类商品

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因此这存在风险

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人们去Costco只为购买最便宜、低利润的商品后离开

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这种趋势越是加剧

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大约50%的加油者会进店消费

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这种趋势越是加剧

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对Costco越不利

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因此像这样

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某些因素可能对Costco造成冲击

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低价低利润的汽油就是其中之一

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他们大部分食品业务并非如此

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利润率极低

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但这不是风险

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因为通常仍比超市低或持平

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所以他们以价格竞争

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顾客也清楚这一点

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同样

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现在我还想分析

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二月二十日最高法院对EPA关税的裁决

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所以现实情况是

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潜在5亿到20亿美元退款的时间线和影响

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对Costco未来收益的影响

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你认为会怎样发展

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坦白说

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我以为最高法院会判Costco败诉

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维持原有关税不变

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目前看来他们仅推翻了IEA关税

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这

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你知道的

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特朗普立即宣布

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好的

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现在我将征收15%的全球税率

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并弥补差额

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而且

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甚至说他认为他们将赚取更多资金

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凭借新关税税率

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我不知道这是否属实

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但这就是他们所说

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因此Costco坚持

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如果因关税被取消而获得退款

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但法院未提及退款事宜

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事实上他们甚至在文件中加入一条

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指出下级法院可自行判断

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因此他们

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你知道的

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在这件事上推卸了一部分责任

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但在此过程中Costco陷入困境

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他们可能获得5亿至20亿美元退款

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我们仍不确定实际缴纳了多少关税

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因为他们对不同商品支付不同税率

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其中部分来自墨西哥和加拿大

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这些未受关税影响

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因为符合美墨加协定

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还有各种美墨加细节

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投资者实际金额仍不明确

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同时我们也不清楚能否拿到这笔钱

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下级法院可能仍持此观点

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我认为下级法院不会裁定退款

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我认为他们会

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裁定Costco无权退款

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并且

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现在他们已公布Q2财报电话会

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我想讨论你对最新会员续费率的解读

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以及考虑相关费用后

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如何理解这些数据

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如何看待这可能抵消其基建开支

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支出

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是的

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Costco在这方面颇具独特性

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因为他们区分实体会员与数字会员

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他们观察到疫情期间

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及之后几年获得显著线上增长

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00:08:50,039 --> 00:08:53,980
但两年后这些用户大幅流失

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在财报电话会上他们表示

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你看

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到店顾客的留存率更高

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如果你去Costco

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很可能持续光顾Costco

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若仅在线订购

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00:09:04,879 --> 00:09:06,539
很可能不再继续

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00:09:06,539 --> 00:09:08,519
随着时间推移这一趋势愈发明显

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00:09:08,519 --> 00:09:11,220
因此他们的更新率可以说是参差不齐

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哪里

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比如说一方面

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实体更新率仍然非常优秀

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00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:16,279
我们甚至看到它仍在增长

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00:09:16,279 --> 00:09:19,568
我也想就你的观点请教

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Costco的估值显著高于同行

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00:09:30,399 --> 00:09:33,339
即使是高质量公司也是如此

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这是我一直试图避免回答的问题

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00:09:37,139 --> 00:09:39,158
在我的许多Costco文章中

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00:09:39,158 --> 00:09:43,639
因为我并不完全清楚商誉有多深

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00:09:43,639 --> 00:09:47,359
这也是很难

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量化或转化为数学模型

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00:09:49,719 --> 00:09:50,058
没错

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估值其实很简单

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因为它是一个数学公式

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我可以直接与竞争对手和历史数据对比

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这在历史上是否严重被低估

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但很难衡量人们对公司的喜爱程度

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或他们对公司忠诚度的意愿

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这也是我认为Costco定价如此高昂的原因之一

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因为人们觉得其增长具有一定的下限

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这个下限高于大多数零售商

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得益于这种商誉

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基于此

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你给出了买入评级

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00:10:22,169 --> 00:10:23,490
他们还能做些什么

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会让你更强烈推荐买入

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00:10:25,759 --> 00:10:29,309
如果利润率显著提升

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并将市盈率下调至三十或二十五

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这在短期内恐怕不会发生

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但如果真的发生

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这无疑是Costco的强烈买入

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嗯

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我们就聊到这里

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非常感谢

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Jack感谢你今天的参与

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以及所有收听的朋友们

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00:10:46,570 --> 00:10:47,289
请继续

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00:10:47,289 --> 00:10:49,328
点击Jack页面的关注按钮

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看看Costco是否适合你的投资组合

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00:10:52,489 --> 00:10:55,559
我们下次节目再见

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