BV141jE6GE7C · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:03,080 如果你想在二十年后实现财务稳定 2 00:00:03,080 --> 00:00:05,599 由于通货膨胀每月将需要三万美元 3 00:00:05,599 --> 00:00:08,919 这三万美元未来会变成六千八千 4 00:00:08,919 --> 00:00:11,779 对自己和家人来说最危险的事情 5 00:00:11,779 --> 00:00:13,250 从财务角度而言就是不投资 6 00:00:13,250 --> 00:00:14,689 因为我们没有进行投资 7 00:00:14,689 --> 00:00:16,170 或者你不再工作 8 00:00:16,170 --> 00:00:18,850 届时将无法维持基本生存 9 00:00:18,850 --> 00:00:21,030 我身边有很多人 10 00:00:21,030 --> 00:00:22,890 本应构建自己的人生 11 00:00:22,890 --> 00:00:24,570 却失去了心与金钱 12 00:00:24,570 --> 00:00:27,850 我亲眼看到父亲经历这一切 13 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:38,780 大家好感谢观看我们的YouTube频道 14 00:00:38,780 --> 00:00:40,719 我是Zaffron来自Pyon Profits 15 00:00:40,719 --> 00:00:42,859 今天我们邀请了Adam Cool 16 00:00:42,859 --> 00:00:46,020 我们将与他探讨他的成长历程 17 00:00:46,020 --> 00:00:47,850 作为投资导师 18 00:00:47,850 --> 00:00:49,229 培训师和导师 19 00:00:49,229 --> 00:00:51,530 同时讨论股票市场 20 00:00:51,530 --> 00:00:54,119 Adam感谢你今天加入我们 21 00:00:54,119 --> 00:00:57,600 我了解到你已从事投资教学超过二十年 22 00:00:57,600 --> 00:01:01,560 始于2005年的财富学院 23 00:01:01,560 --> 00:01:02,969 投资大师班 24 00:01:02,969 --> 00:01:08,090 随后在2016年将其转为在线课程Pyon Profits 25 00:01:08,090 --> 00:01:11,129 你的动力是什么 26 00:01:11,129 --> 00:01:16,060 过去二十年的经历如何 27 00:01:16,060 --> 00:01:18,719 我一直热衷于教学 28 00:01:18,719 --> 00:01:19,959 分享我的成功经验 29 00:01:19,959 --> 00:01:23,459 对于追随我超过二十年的观众 30 00:01:23,459 --> 00:01:23,700 甚至 31 00:01:23,700 --> 00:01:25,560 可能三十年 32 00:01:25,560 --> 00:01:27,980 他们知道我曾开始教人 33 00:01:27,980 --> 00:01:28,760 如何学习 34 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:30,519 如何取得好成绩 35 00:01:30,519 --> 00:01:32,739 因为我自己曾是个差生 36 00:01:32,739 --> 00:01:35,418 后来参加加速学习项目 37 00:01:35,418 --> 00:01:38,560 并将其应用到生活中 38 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:43,489 开始学业表现优异并渴望传授方法 39 00:01:43,489 --> 00:01:47,829 之后学习神经语言程序学（NLP） 40 00:01:47,829 --> 00:01:50,209 有效管理情绪与心理 41 00:01:50,209 --> 00:01:51,579 自己的心理状态 42 00:01:51,579 --> 00:01:55,079 助力早期事业与事业成功 43 00:01:55,079 --> 00:01:58,640 因此热衷于传授这些知识 44 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:02,040 随后当我积累收入 45 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:03,480 并进行投资 46 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:05,040 最初表现并不理想 47 00:02:05,040 --> 00:02:06,840 大多数人并不了解我在做什么 48 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:07,299 所以 49 00:02:07,299 --> 00:02:09,280 赚钱亏钱循环往复 50 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:11,430 多年在循环中反复 51 00:02:11,430 --> 00:02:14,650 然后我终于弄明白了股票市场是怎么运作的 52 00:02:14,650 --> 00:02:16,009 这不是赌场 53 00:02:16,009 --> 00:02:17,569 而是企业的超市 54 00:02:17,569 --> 00:02:19,110 当我开始学习时 55 00:02:19,110 --> 00:02:23,599 如何将行业大师们的知识融会贯通 56 00:02:23,599 --> 00:02:26,139 从沃伦·巴菲特到彼得·林奇 57 00:02:26,139 --> 00:02:27,520 再到维克多·佩雷尼亚 58 00:02:27,520 --> 00:02:30,250 结合基本面分析和技术面分析 59 00:02:30,250 --> 00:02:32,330 当我开始看到成效时 60 00:02:32,330 --> 00:02:33,669 当我开始看到财富增长 61 00:02:33,669 --> 00:02:36,389 我迫不及待想传授这些知识 62 00:02:36,389 --> 00:02:41,060 我一生都热衷于分享对我有效的方法，正如你提到的在25课里 63 00:02:41,060 --> 00:02:44,180 我创立了财富学院投资大师班 64 00:02:44,180 --> 00:02:49,939 其中一个主要目标是赋能像我这样的散户投资者 65 00:02:49,939 --> 00:02:53,669 教会如何成为自主投资者 66 00:02:53,669 --> 00:02:57,830 如何不仅能在市场中持续获利 67 00:02:57,830 --> 00:03:00,419 但如何超越市场指数 68 00:03:00,419 --> 00:03:02,599 如何超越专业投资者 69 00:03:02,599 --> 00:03:03,879 首先 70 00:03:03,879 --> 00:03:05,960 我认识很多人 71 00:03:05,960 --> 00:03:07,219 都是散户投资者 72 00:03:07,219 --> 00:03:09,060 却一无所知 73 00:03:09,060 --> 00:03:11,020 他们没有建立自己的方法 74 00:03:11,020 --> 00:03:12,560 却失去了心和钱 75 00:03:12,560 --> 00:03:13,879 这是常见现象 76 00:03:13,879 --> 00:03:16,400 我甚至看到父亲经历此事 77 00:03:16,400 --> 00:03:18,000 这发生在1999年 78 00:03:18,000 --> 00:03:18,479 2000年 79 00:03:18,479 --> 00:03:19,789 互联网泡沫时期 80 00:03:19,789 --> 00:03:21,469 当时我父亲 81 00:03:21,469 --> 00:03:26,909 和其他许多人被银行建议购买这些互联网基金 82 00:03:26,909 --> 00:03:29,629 他们根本不知道这些是什么 83 00:03:29,629 --> 00:03:31,289 我父亲是艺术家 84 00:03:31,289 --> 00:03:32,830 没有金融背景 85 00:03:32,830 --> 00:03:35,330 于是他买了所有这些科技基金 86 00:03:35,330 --> 00:03:35,530 哦 87 00:03:35,530 --> 00:03:35,849 你知道的 88 00:03:35,849 --> 00:03:37,479 会一直涨上去的 89 00:03:37,479 --> 00:03:38,800 当科技泡沫破裂时 90 00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:39,280 嗯 91 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:42,050 那次大幅侵蚀了他的储蓄 92 00:03:42,050 --> 00:03:46,210 当时很多人在2008或2009年遭遇了这种情况 93 00:03:46,210 --> 00:03:46,849 幸好 94 00:03:46,849 --> 00:03:47,870 这没影响到我父亲 95 00:03:47,870 --> 00:03:49,889 因为他比我更聪明 96 00:03:49,889 --> 00:03:51,088 他开始听我的建议 97 00:03:51,088 --> 00:03:51,729 但我记得 98 00:03:51,729 --> 00:03:52,508 2008年9月 99 00:03:52,508 --> 00:03:56,389 当时许多散户被建议购买雷曼兄弟债券 100 00:03:56,389 --> 00:03:56,689 他们说 101 00:03:56,689 --> 00:03:56,810 哦 102 00:03:56,810 --> 00:03:57,810 非常安全，没错 103 00:03:57,810 --> 00:04:00,509 在大金融危机中雷曼兄弟破产时 104 00:04:00,509 --> 00:04:01,689 很多人 105 00:04:01,689 --> 00:04:02,009 事实上 106 00:04:02,009 --> 00:04:05,740 许多老年人退休后失去了他们的积蓄 107 00:04:05,740 --> 00:04:07,979 原因在于大量散户投资者 108 00:04:07,979 --> 00:04:08,379 他们认为 109 00:04:08,379 --> 00:04:08,539 哦 110 00:04:08,539 --> 00:04:09,919 我不需要学习投资 111 00:04:09,919 --> 00:04:10,919 这有什么难的 112 00:04:10,919 --> 00:04:12,039 只需听我的银行家 113 00:04:12,039 --> 00:04:13,159 听我的朋友 114 00:04:13,159 --> 00:04:15,729 看新闻自己操作就行了 115 00:04:15,729 --> 00:04:18,629 我一直说投资风险很高 116 00:04:18,629 --> 00:04:20,850 如果你不了解自己在做什么 117 00:04:20,850 --> 00:04:25,230 就像没学过游泳就下水一样危险 118 00:04:25,230 --> 00:04:25,769 呃 119 00:04:25,769 --> 00:04:26,850 开车也有风险 120 00:04:26,850 --> 00:04:28,540 如果不懂交通规则 121 00:04:28,540 --> 00:04:32,540 问题是很多人直接入市 122 00:04:33,660 --> 00:04:35,019 却没学会游泳 123 00:04:35,019 --> 00:04:36,120 也没学会开车 124 00:04:36,120 --> 00:04:38,120 这就是他们财务受损的原因 125 00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:39,720 会发生金融事故 126 00:04:39,720 --> 00:04:40,879 我又看到这种情况 127 00:04:40,879 --> 00:04:42,149 在我的家人朋友中 128 00:04:42,149 --> 00:04:45,550 这也是我一直以来的使命 129 00:04:45,550 --> 00:04:48,069 一旦学会智能投资 130 00:04:48,069 --> 00:04:49,930 一旦学会投资 131 00:04:51,139 --> 00:04:54,100 投资就不再有风险 132 00:04:54,100 --> 00:04:55,879 就像学会游泳后 133 00:04:55,879 --> 00:04:57,279 游泳不再危险 134 00:04:57,279 --> 00:04:58,750 反而变得健康 135 00:04:58,750 --> 00:05:01,009 能更快到达想去的地方 136 00:05:01,009 --> 00:05:02,230 这就是财务安全 137 00:05:02,230 --> 00:05:03,860 财务自由 138 00:05:03,860 --> 00:05:05,899 相比存入银行 139 00:05:05,899 --> 00:05:08,939 年收益不到1%还被通胀侵蚀 140 00:05:08,939 --> 00:05:13,240 很多人知道你今天已建立超2000万美元的投资组合 141 00:05:13,240 --> 00:05:18,339 并持续每年跑赢市场 142 00:05:18,339 --> 00:05:21,439 所以你可以躺在马尔代夫海滩 143 00:05:21,439 --> 00:05:22,560 悠闲放松 144 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:27,459 是什么激励你继续教学的 145 00:05:27,459 --> 00:05:28,540 我可以说第一点 146 00:05:28,540 --> 00:05:30,439 如果你阅读所有 testimonials 147 00:05:30,439 --> 00:05:31,079 陆续收到的 148 00:05:31,079 --> 00:05:32,639 你知道偶尔会有 149 00:05:32,639 --> 00:05:34,180 如果你知道经常会有 150 00:05:34,180 --> 00:05:40,870 每隔几天我们看到学生在群组里分享课程如何改变 151 00:05:40,870 --> 00:05:43,329 你的生活实际上还没有改变，而他们的生活已经改变了 152 00:05:43,329 --> 00:05:45,540 但改变了你家人的经济状况 153 00:05:45,540 --> 00:05:47,420 当我读到这类内容时 154 00:05:47,420 --> 00:05:49,319 这真的激励我继续前进 155 00:05:49,319 --> 00:05:50,860 因为它赋予了我的人生目标 156 00:05:50,860 --> 00:05:54,410 我想第二个原因是如果我不教书 157 00:05:54,410 --> 00:05:55,529 你会怎么样 158 00:05:55,529 --> 00:05:56,250 你知道的 159 00:05:56,250 --> 00:05:57,709 我就会被生活拖垮 160 00:05:57,709 --> 00:06:00,050 每天跟着妻子逛街 161 00:06:00,050 --> 00:06:01,750 或者每天坐在沙滩上 162 00:06:01,750 --> 00:06:03,430 我简直会被生活拖垮 163 00:06:03,430 --> 00:06:06,408 对的，第三点某种程度上 164 00:06:06,408 --> 00:06:08,468 我们都喜欢被重视的感觉 165 00:06:08,468 --> 00:06:09,129 我的意思是 166 00:06:09,129 --> 00:06:11,788 当人们听我说话时 167 00:06:11,788 --> 00:06:13,149 这让我感到重要 168 00:06:13,149 --> 00:06:13,689 没错 169 00:06:13,689 --> 00:06:14,490 因为你知道 170 00:06:14,490 --> 00:06:15,209 有时候我们开玩笑说 171 00:06:15,209 --> 00:06:16,129 他们有时候就像我们的妻子 172 00:06:16,129 --> 00:06:16,889 不听我们的话 173 00:06:16,889 --> 00:06:17,810 我们的孩子不听我们的话 174 00:06:17,810 --> 00:06:18,290 他们根本就不听 175 00:06:18,290 --> 00:06:19,548 听我们的话啊 176 00:06:19,548 --> 00:06:21,608 但当我分享这些想法时 177 00:06:21,608 --> 00:06:23,288 人们好像在认真听你说 178 00:06:23,288 --> 00:06:24,889 而且你会感到很开心 179 00:06:24,889 --> 00:06:26,829 你会感到需要 180 00:06:26,829 --> 00:06:27,389 它让你 181 00:06:27,389 --> 00:06:28,129 生活有了意义 182 00:06:28,129 --> 00:06:28,509 你知道的 183 00:06:28,509 --> 00:06:33,209 我意识到的一件事是，当你赚到一定金额后 184 00:06:33,209 --> 00:06:35,009 更多的钱不再能激励你 185 00:06:35,009 --> 00:06:36,170 你必须找到其他动力 186 00:06:36,170 --> 00:06:39,649 这就是为什么我认识很多私交甚好的朋友 187 00:06:39,649 --> 00:06:41,970 他们身家丰厚 188 00:06:41,970 --> 00:06:42,550 却感到迷茫 189 00:06:42,550 --> 00:06:43,310 我现在已经很有钱了 190 00:06:43,310 --> 00:06:45,589 但家人似乎不爱我 191 00:06:45,589 --> 00:06:46,810 或者我的人生没有意义 192 00:06:46,810 --> 00:06:48,269 他们陷入深深的抑郁 193 00:06:48,269 --> 00:06:49,779 我真的有朋友 194 00:06:49,779 --> 00:06:53,399 我们拥有数十亿或数亿美元 195 00:06:53,399 --> 00:06:54,300 却感到抑郁 196 00:06:55,660 --> 00:06:58,100 因为他们再也没有激情可言 197 00:06:58,100 --> 00:07:00,839 你觉得每个人都应该学习投资吗 198 00:07:00,839 --> 00:07:05,540 还是只有那些想要致富的人 199 00:07:05,540 --> 00:07:06,199 是啊 200 00:07:06,199 --> 00:07:08,639 你知道的，每个人都需要学会投资 201 00:07:08,639 --> 00:07:11,079 不仅仅是那些想要变得非常富有的人 202 00:07:11,079 --> 00:07:12,839 你知道无论你是教师 203 00:07:12,839 --> 00:07:13,980 你的警察 204 00:07:13,980 --> 00:07:15,040 你的企业员工 205 00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:16,379 你必须学会如何投资 206 00:07:16,379 --> 00:07:17,920 嗯，原因非常简单 207 00:07:17,920 --> 00:07:19,548 因为通货膨胀 208 00:07:19,548 --> 00:07:21,809 通货膨胀是我们最大的敌人 209 00:07:21,809 --> 00:07:22,348 好的 210 00:07:22,348 --> 00:07:23,689 如果从长远来看 211 00:07:23,689 --> 00:07:27,500 通胀率比如新加坡约为2% 212 00:07:27,500 --> 00:07:29,139 美国可能3% 213 00:07:29,139 --> 00:07:31,360 像印尼可能更高 214 00:07:31,360 --> 00:07:32,540 或者马来西亚更高 215 00:07:32,540 --> 00:07:33,038 没错 216 00:07:33,038 --> 00:07:36,858 这意味着每年生活成本都在上涨 217 00:07:36,858 --> 00:07:40,050 商品和服务价格每年都在上涨 218 00:07:40,050 --> 00:07:43,110 因此如果你持有现金 219 00:07:43,110 --> 00:07:47,160 你的现金价值每年会下降2-3% 220 00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:47,759 4% 221 00:07:47,759 --> 00:07:49,500 每年会损失2% 222 00:07:49,500 --> 00:07:49,939 2% 223 00:07:49,939 --> 00:07:50,300 2% 224 00:07:50,300 --> 00:07:50,860 2% 225 00:07:50,860 --> 00:07:54,709 如果复利计算 226 00:07:54,709 --> 00:07:58,910 十年后将损失约20%购买力 227 00:07:58,910 --> 00:08:00,370 二十年后 228 00:08:00,370 --> 00:08:02,610 损失40%购买力 229 00:08:02,610 --> 00:08:04,439 这相当可怕 230 00:08:04,439 --> 00:08:08,980 所以我告诉人们 231 00:08:08,980 --> 00:08:10,788 从财务角度看最危险的事 232 00:08:10,788 --> 00:08:12,459 就是不投资 233 00:08:12,459 --> 00:08:15,699 如果不投资 234 00:08:15,699 --> 00:08:17,660 十年二十年三十年后 235 00:08:17,660 --> 00:08:19,120 当你无法工作时 236 00:08:19,120 --> 00:08:22,990 或不再工作时 237 00:08:22,990 --> 00:08:24,889 将无法在发达国家生存 238 00:08:24,889 --> 00:08:26,769 比如新加坡或美国等 239 00:08:28,180 --> 00:08:29,100 你将陷入财务困境 240 00:08:29,100 --> 00:08:32,820 我知道你的情况 241 00:08:32,820 --> 00:08:33,860 但现在看到很多七十岁的人 242 00:08:33,860 --> 00:08:34,740 一生辛勤工作 243 00:08:34,740 --> 00:08:35,600 一辈子 244 00:08:35,600 --> 00:08:36,879 努力储蓄 245 00:08:36,879 --> 00:08:38,840 但因不懂增值 246 00:08:38,840 --> 00:08:41,120 如今发现财务困难 247 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:43,649 无法负担所需开支 248 00:08:43,649 --> 00:08:47,070 你不想十年后成为那样的人 249 00:08:47,070 --> 00:08:47,610 对吧 250 00:08:47,610 --> 00:08:49,360 所以你现在必须开始计划 251 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:52,500 如今的普通上班族 252 00:08:52,500 --> 00:08:54,559 在当今市场能成为百万富翁吗 253 00:08:54,559 --> 00:08:56,349 你觉得需要多久时间 254 00:08:56,349 --> 00:08:56,869 好的 255 00:08:56,869 --> 00:09:00,548 首先我回想起三十年前刚起步时 256 00:09:00,548 --> 00:09:03,869 百万富翁是我们共同的奋斗目标 257 00:09:03,869 --> 00:09:04,210 没错 258 00:09:04,210 --> 00:09:05,570 但仔细想想 259 00:09:05,570 --> 00:09:08,230 在新加坡一百万美元算不了什么 260 00:09:08,230 --> 00:09:12,529 甚至用一百万美元都买不起组屋 261 00:09:12,529 --> 00:09:15,330 如今一百万美元真的不够 262 00:09:15,330 --> 00:09:16,559 首先 263 00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:22,019 你需要确定未来财务稳定的资金目标 264 00:09:22,019 --> 00:09:23,509 然后朝着这个目标努力 265 00:09:23,509 --> 00:09:27,639 一个粗略的计算方法是 266 00:09:27,639 --> 00:09:30,809 将年支出乘以二十五 267 00:09:30,809 --> 00:09:30,970 没错 268 00:09:30,970 --> 00:09:32,570 因人而异 269 00:09:32,570 --> 00:09:33,950 例如 270 00:09:33,950 --> 00:09:34,730 在新加坡 271 00:09:34,730 --> 00:09:36,929 询问大多数新加坡家庭 272 00:09:36,929 --> 00:09:38,169 四口之家 273 00:09:38,169 --> 00:09:39,169 五口之家 274 00:09:39,169 --> 00:09:41,480 夫妻双方中等收入 275 00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:45,960 多数人会说每月至少八千用于车贷 276 00:09:45,960 --> 00:09:47,279 公寓和其他开支 277 00:09:47,279 --> 00:09:48,299 暂按一万计算 278 00:09:48,299 --> 00:09:48,779 例如 279 00:09:48,779 --> 00:09:53,220 所以一万乘十二是年支出十二万 280 00:09:53,220 --> 00:09:55,419 乘以二十五就是 281 00:09:55,419 --> 00:09:56,840 我的心算不太好 282 00:09:56,840 --> 00:09:58,470 让我用手机算 283 00:09:58,470 --> 00:10:01,710 这证明在市场赚钱不需要心算能力强 284 00:10:01,710 --> 00:10:03,309 因为我心算不好 285 00:10:03,309 --> 00:10:06,828 所以十二万乘二十五 286 00:10:06,828 --> 00:10:07,948 就是三百万 287 00:10:07,948 --> 00:10:12,600 至少需要三百万才能财务稳定 288 00:10:12,600 --> 00:10:15,240 如果失业或无法工作 289 00:10:15,240 --> 00:10:17,230 或AI取代所有工作 290 00:10:17,230 --> 00:10:20,169 至少能依靠这笔钱生活 291 00:10:20,169 --> 00:10:23,870 通过利息支撑到八十岁 292 00:10:23,870 --> 00:10:25,110 例如 293 00:10:25,110 --> 00:10:26,570 当然单身情况不同 294 00:10:26,570 --> 00:10:27,250 如果是单身 295 00:10:27,250 --> 00:10:27,850 没有家庭 296 00:10:27,850 --> 00:10:28,370 没有子女 297 00:10:28,370 --> 00:10:29,850 每月无需一万开支 298 00:10:29,850 --> 00:10:30,590 如果你告诉我 299 00:10:30,590 --> 00:10:30,950 例如 300 00:10:30,950 --> 00:10:32,629 新加坡一个人 301 00:10:32,629 --> 00:10:34,894 他们至少需要多少才能舒适 302 00:10:35,220 --> 00:10:36,620 偶尔看电影 303 00:10:36,620 --> 00:10:38,059 偶尔去餐厅 304 00:10:38,059 --> 00:10:39,659 如果我不用付房租 305 00:10:39,659 --> 00:10:42,559 如果我只是算生活开支 306 00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:43,879 你仍需要有个住处 307 00:10:43,879 --> 00:10:45,279 如果是租房的话 308 00:10:45,279 --> 00:10:48,220 会是五千两百 309 00:10:48,220 --> 00:10:48,639 是的 310 00:10:48,639 --> 00:10:49,559 还有食物 311 00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:51,320 可能再加一千 312 00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:55,220 医疗保险交通费 313 00:10:55,220 --> 00:10:55,889 嗯 314 00:10:55,889 --> 00:10:57,250 你有娱乐消费 315 00:10:57,250 --> 00:10:57,610 好的 316 00:10:57,610 --> 00:10:58,090 所以奥帕 317 00:10:58,090 --> 00:11:01,230 你觉得每月至少需要多少才能舒适 318 00:11:01,509 --> 00:11:03,309 每月开支方面 319 00:11:03,309 --> 00:11:05,659 大概两万两千五 320 00:11:05,659 --> 00:11:06,179 好的 321 00:11:06,179 --> 00:11:08,179 单身人士两万五 322 00:11:08,179 --> 00:11:08,980 好的 323 00:11:08,980 --> 00:11:11,590 两万五每月 324 00:11:11,590 --> 00:11:14,350 十二个月就是三万年 325 00:11:15,470 --> 00:11:15,730 好的 326 00:11:15,730 --> 00:11:17,620 乘以二十五 327 00:11:17,899 --> 00:11:20,340 就是七十五万 328 00:11:20,799 --> 00:11:21,200 好的 329 00:11:21,200 --> 00:11:21,480 嗯 330 00:11:22,720 --> 00:11:25,100 但这是两天的量 331 00:11:25,100 --> 00:11:29,059 如果想二十年财务稳定 332 00:11:29,059 --> 00:11:31,019 不会是每月三千 333 00:11:31,019 --> 00:11:32,220 因为通胀因素 334 00:11:32,220 --> 00:11:34,559 三千会变成六千 335 00:11:34,559 --> 00:11:35,960 未来可能八千 336 00:11:35,960 --> 00:11:38,190 和今天相同的生活方式 337 00:11:38,190 --> 00:11:39,529 所以这就是为什么 338 00:11:39,529 --> 00:11:41,190 我告诉人们的第一件事 339 00:11:41,190 --> 00:11:41,509 就是这个 340 00:11:41,509 --> 00:11:42,578 你必须弄清楚 341 00:11:42,578 --> 00:11:43,619 你的n 342 00:11:43,619 --> 00:11:44,219 各项开支 343 00:11:44,219 --> 00:11:45,499 第一和第二项 344 00:11:45,499 --> 00:11:46,678 乘以二十五 345 00:11:46,678 --> 00:11:47,698 得到大致估算 346 00:11:47,698 --> 00:11:48,879 你的i 347 00:11:48,879 --> 00:11:51,049 财务自由目标 348 00:11:51,049 --> 00:11:53,970 是七十五万还是三百万 349 00:11:53,970 --> 00:11:55,100 或者任何数额 350 00:11:55,100 --> 00:11:57,840 然后你需要制定一个计划来朝着这个目标努力 351 00:11:57,840 --> 00:11:58,379 要知道 352 00:11:58,379 --> 00:11:58,580 好的 353 00:11:58,580 --> 00:12:02,669 我需要每月存多少钱，以什么回报率才能达成目标 354 00:12:02,669 --> 00:12:05,960 十年或二十年内达到三百万或两百万 355 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:07,440 没错，这就是我们所做的 356 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:10,379 我们有财务计算器来帮助你完成这个 357 00:12:10,379 --> 00:12:10,620 所以 358 00:12:10,620 --> 00:12:11,019 事实上 359 00:12:11,019 --> 00:12:14,039 在七月即将举行的在线直播研讨会中 360 00:12:14,039 --> 00:12:16,360 这是反泡沫狂热主题的研讨会 361 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:17,440 然而 362 00:12:17,679 --> 00:12:18,679 特定领域 363 00:12:18,679 --> 00:12:23,990 我将分享如何利用我们的工具实现财务自由 364 00:12:23,990 --> 00:12:25,250 为了计算 365 00:12:25,250 --> 00:12:27,289 你的财务自由目标是什么 366 00:12:27,289 --> 00:12:28,730 每月需要存多少钱 367 00:12:28,730 --> 00:12:32,919 你的目标回报率是多少，以及实现的时间线是否现实 368 00:12:32,919 --> 00:12:33,240 好的 369 00:12:33,240 --> 00:12:34,200 截至今日 370 00:12:34,200 --> 00:12:37,169 标普指数仍在创下历史新高 371 00:12:37,169 --> 00:12:42,049 有些人认为市场目前确实过高且过贵 372 00:12:42,049 --> 00:12:43,979 并认为市场处于泡沫中 373 00:12:43,979 --> 00:12:45,789 但你的看法呢 374 00:12:45,789 --> 00:12:48,350 大家都有自己的观点 375 00:12:48,350 --> 00:12:49,690 我不相信直觉 376 00:12:49,690 --> 00:12:50,830 我不相信主观意见 377 00:12:50,830 --> 00:12:51,509 我坚信 378 00:12:51,509 --> 00:12:52,230 让我们看数据 379 00:12:52,230 --> 00:12:53,129 让我们看事实 380 00:12:53,129 --> 00:12:55,190 但很多人会 381 00:12:55,190 --> 00:12:55,750 他们关注的是 382 00:12:55,750 --> 00:12:57,750 所谓的市盈率 383 00:12:57,750 --> 00:13:00,570 标普500的市盈比率大致相当于 384 00:13:00,570 --> 00:13:02,299 判断是否昂贵或便宜 385 00:13:02,299 --> 00:13:05,059 如果现在看标普的市盈比率 386 00:13:05,059 --> 00:13:05,899 约为两倍 387 00:13:05,899 --> 00:13:07,600 基于未来收益 388 00:13:07,600 --> 00:13:09,419 这算高还是低呢 389 00:13:09,419 --> 00:13:11,639 如果看过去五年平均值 390 00:13:11,639 --> 00:13:13,340 约为十九点九 391 00:13:13,340 --> 00:13:16,490 过去十年平均值约为十八点九 392 00:13:16,490 --> 00:13:19,929 两倍高于十九点九 393 00:13:19,929 --> 00:13:21,129 也高于十八点九 394 00:13:21,129 --> 00:13:23,960 从市盈率来看 395 00:13:23,960 --> 00:13:26,620 高于五到十年平均值 396 00:13:26,620 --> 00:13:28,360 但并未大幅超出 397 00:13:28,360 --> 00:13:31,409 我认为整体偏高 398 00:13:31,409 --> 00:13:33,210 但并非极度昂贵 399 00:13:33,210 --> 00:13:34,690 如果使用市盈比率 400 00:13:34,690 --> 00:13:34,950 但是 401 00:13:34,950 --> 00:13:35,470 正如我之前所说 402 00:13:35,470 --> 00:13:35,970 许多次 403 00:13:35,970 --> 00:13:38,259 市盈率单独来看可能会有误导性 404 00:13:38,259 --> 00:13:41,120 因为它没有考虑收益的增长 405 00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:46,730 如今企业利润增长远高于十年前 406 00:13:46,730 --> 00:13:50,009 因此不能将今天的市盈率与十年前直接比较 407 00:13:50,009 --> 00:13:51,720 必须比较增长情况 408 00:13:51,720 --> 00:13:56,320 所以我更常用的是PEG比率 409 00:13:56,320 --> 00:13:57,940 即取市盈率 410 00:13:57,940 --> 00:14:00,899 除以公司当前的盈利增长率 411 00:14:00,899 --> 00:14:01,940 如果这样做 412 00:14:01,940 --> 00:14:06,009 你会发现我的PEG比率约为1 413 00:14:06,009 --> 00:14:07,269 但如果看历史数据 414 00:14:07,269 --> 00:14:10,080 1实际上被认为是合理估值 415 00:14:10,080 --> 00:14:11,000 不贵 416 00:14:11,000 --> 00:14:11,840 不便宜 417 00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:12,818 合理定价 418 00:14:12,818 --> 00:14:14,658 这是整体市场 419 00:14:14,658 --> 00:14:16,499 那么什么是市场 420 00:14:16,499 --> 00:14:20,700 基本上是代表市场的标普500指数 421 00:14:20,700 --> 00:14:23,600 但若深入分析 422 00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:25,519 查看实际的500家公司 423 00:14:25,519 --> 00:14:27,879 并非全部都昂贵 424 00:14:27,879 --> 00:14:29,500 有些非常昂贵 425 00:14:29,500 --> 00:14:31,169 有些稍微贵些 426 00:14:31,169 --> 00:14:32,590 有些被低估 427 00:14:32,590 --> 00:14:34,289 因此必须单独分析 428 00:14:34,289 --> 00:14:35,250 这也是 429 00:14:35,250 --> 00:14:37,889 我在网络研讨会中将向您展示的内容 430 00:14:37,889 --> 00:14:39,450 在年中期间 431 00:14:39,450 --> 00:14:41,309 反泡沫狂热网络研讨会 432 00:14:41,309 --> 00:14:43,149 我将准确告诉您 433 00:14:43,149 --> 00:14:46,210 标普500中哪些公司实际昂贵 434 00:14:46,210 --> 00:14:46,929 哪些被低估 435 00:14:46,929 --> 00:14:47,210 好的 436 00:14:47,210 --> 00:14:47,549 所以亚当 437 00:14:47,549 --> 00:14:52,549 你说并非所有AI公司都相同 438 00:14:52,549 --> 00:14:57,409 如何区分炒作公司与盈利公司 439 00:14:57,409 --> 00:14:58,129 好的 440 00:14:58,129 --> 00:15:00,679 有两个关键点 441 00:15:00,679 --> 00:15:01,240 好的 442 00:15:01,240 --> 00:15:05,240 首先是我说的公司护城河 443 00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:07,220 这不是我首创的 444 00:15:07,220 --> 00:15:08,559 源自巴菲特 445 00:15:08,559 --> 00:15:12,578 经济护城河指公司的可持续竞争优势 446 00:15:12,578 --> 00:15:15,778 记住公司现在可能利润丰厚 447 00:15:15,778 --> 00:15:17,259 但能否持续 448 00:15:17,259 --> 00:15:19,740 能否在未来五到十年甚至更久保持增长 449 00:15:19,740 --> 00:15:23,279 或维持增长 450 00:15:23,279 --> 00:15:24,700 这才是最重要的事情 451 00:15:24,700 --> 00:15:26,000 对我来说 452 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:27,360 当我投资一只股票 453 00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:30,168 我不关注当前的增长 454 00:15:30,168 --> 00:15:31,109 我在关注 455 00:15:31,109 --> 00:15:33,249 它能否在未来十年到二十年持续发展 456 00:15:33,249 --> 00:15:34,730 例如 457 00:15:34,730 --> 00:15:37,129 如果你使用Oracle应用 458 00:15:37,129 --> 00:15:40,328 它会立即显示公司的护城河 459 00:15:40,328 --> 00:15:42,408 并将其评分从1到10 460 00:15:42,408 --> 00:15:46,769 我通常寻找护城河评分至少七分的公司 461 00:15:46,769 --> 00:15:49,740 八分或十分 462 00:15:49,740 --> 00:15:51,559 这说明其具有可持续性 463 00:15:51,559 --> 00:15:52,519 这就是第一条 464 00:15:52,519 --> 00:15:54,100 投资具有强大护城河的公司 465 00:15:54,100 --> 00:15:55,399 因为如果护城河薄弱 466 00:15:55,399 --> 00:15:57,179 低于六分 467 00:15:57,179 --> 00:15:57,899 那么 468 00:15:57,899 --> 00:15:58,980 现在利润可能会上升 469 00:15:58,980 --> 00:16:00,139 当前增长可能会上升 470 00:16:00,139 --> 00:16:01,440 但如果你投资它 471 00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:02,399 可能会非常危险 472 00:16:02,399 --> 00:16:05,669 因为未来几年不可持续 473 00:16:05,669 --> 00:16:08,190 竞争对手可能抢走市场份额 474 00:16:08,190 --> 00:16:10,299 或增长无法持续 475 00:16:10,299 --> 00:16:11,720 然后你会发现 476 00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:13,740 你的投资可能跌去50% 477 00:16:13,740 --> 00:16:15,299 永远回不来，第一条 478 00:16:15,299 --> 00:16:17,379 我关注的第二件事是 479 00:16:17,379 --> 00:16:18,000 嗯 480 00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:20,379 即使公司有强大护城河 481 00:16:20,379 --> 00:16:21,720 增长可持续 482 00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:24,000 但你是否支付了过高价格 483 00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:26,899 这就是我们评估内在价值的原因 484 00:16:26,899 --> 00:16:29,000 当然在我的网络研讨会中 485 00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:31,139 我会分享如何计算内在价值 486 00:16:31,139 --> 00:16:32,399 你可以手动计算 487 00:16:32,399 --> 00:16:34,320 使用内在价值计算器 488 00:16:34,320 --> 00:16:35,620 在Store Oracle中 489 00:16:35,620 --> 00:16:37,470 你可以在应用上直接看到估值 490 00:16:37,470 --> 00:16:38,889 关键在于 491 00:16:38,889 --> 00:16:44,669 只有当价格低于内在价值时才买入优质公司 492 00:16:44,669 --> 00:16:46,509 我不愿支付过高溢价 493 00:16:46,509 --> 00:16:50,169 即使优质公司也可能因高价成为坏投资 494 00:16:50,169 --> 00:16:50,549 是的 495 00:16:50,549 --> 00:16:55,549 我说优质业务若高价收购可能成为坏投资 496 00:16:55,549 --> 00:16:57,529 但优质业务是优质投资 497 00:16:57,529 --> 00:16:58,990 如果你能以低于 498 00:16:58,990 --> 00:16:59,549 其实际价值的价格买入 499 00:16:59,549 --> 00:17:01,159 这适用于所有事物 500 00:17:01,159 --> 00:17:01,539 假设说 501 00:17:01,539 --> 00:17:02,080 例如 502 00:17:02,080 --> 00:17:03,720 你发现了一处绝佳房产 503 00:17:03,720 --> 00:17:04,640 绝佳的公寓 504 00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:05,779 绝佳的景观 505 00:17:05,779 --> 00:17:07,880 绝佳地段和翻新 506 00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:08,759 非常漂亮对吧 507 00:17:08,759 --> 00:17:09,980 你擅长做什么 508 00:17:09,980 --> 00:17:11,220 你会询问卖家 509 00:17:11,220 --> 00:17:12,720 银行估值是多少 510 00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:14,180 银行会进行估值 511 00:17:14,180 --> 00:17:15,619 所以假设这个估值 512 00:17:15,619 --> 00:17:16,940 银行的做法是 513 00:17:16,940 --> 00:17:17,220 哦 514 00:17:17,220 --> 00:17:19,568 这套房产价值150万 515 00:17:19,568 --> 00:17:20,009 好的 516 00:17:20,009 --> 00:17:21,209 但你非常急切 517 00:17:21,209 --> 00:17:24,169 你说我要买下这套房以防别人抢走 518 00:17:24,169 --> 00:17:26,109 而卖家会说 519 00:17:26,109 --> 00:17:26,750 嗯 520 00:17:26,750 --> 00:17:27,029 好吧 521 00:17:27,029 --> 00:17:28,809 两百万怎么样，你真的很急 522 00:17:28,809 --> 00:17:29,069 好吧 523 00:17:29,069 --> 00:17:29,809 我出两百万 524 00:17:29,809 --> 00:17:30,630 那会发生什么 525 00:17:30,630 --> 00:17:32,410 你以两百万购买房产 526 00:17:32,410 --> 00:17:33,819 而估值仅为150万 527 00:17:33,819 --> 00:17:35,420 你溢价了50万 528 00:17:35,420 --> 00:17:37,259 估值是优质房产 529 00:17:37,259 --> 00:17:38,819 这是优质投资吗 530 00:17:38,819 --> 00:17:39,759 不，对吧 531 00:17:39,759 --> 00:17:40,359 好的 532 00:17:40,359 --> 00:17:42,359 新加坡确实有人这么做 533 00:17:42,359 --> 00:17:44,579 他们高价购入圣淘沙 Cove 534 00:17:44,579 --> 00:17:47,609 或十年前的热门房产 535 00:17:47,609 --> 00:17:48,890 十年后发生了什么 536 00:17:48,890 --> 00:17:49,890 他们仍在亏损 537 00:17:49,890 --> 00:17:50,869 因为买价过高 538 00:17:50,869 --> 00:17:51,789 但让我们想象 539 00:17:51,789 --> 00:17:54,109 如果因某种原因卖家急于出售 540 00:17:54,109 --> 00:17:55,719 他急需出售 541 00:17:55,719 --> 00:17:57,358 生意濒临破产 542 00:17:57,358 --> 00:17:58,719 正在经历离婚 543 00:17:58,719 --> 00:17:59,778 他非常急切 544 00:17:59,778 --> 00:18:01,858 没错，当时你说 545 00:18:01,858 --> 00:18:01,999 是的 546 00:18:01,999 --> 00:18:02,959 告诉你吧 547 00:18:02,959 --> 00:18:05,579 我出100万买下，现在现金支付 548 00:18:05,579 --> 00:18:05,900 他回应道 549 00:18:05,900 --> 00:18:06,460 哦好的 550 00:18:06,460 --> 00:18:07,380 所以它会直接发送给你 551 00:18:07,380 --> 00:18:08,388 这算是个好交易吗 552 00:18:08,388 --> 00:18:08,828 是的 553 00:18:08,828 --> 00:18:11,009 你以半分钟低于估值的价格买入了 554 00:18:11,009 --> 00:18:14,180 现在这些交易容易找吗 555 00:18:14,180 --> 00:18:15,920 我们是在说房产还是其他东西 556 00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:16,160 好的 557 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:17,720 所以对于房产来说非常困难 558 00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:18,140 没错 559 00:18:18,140 --> 00:18:18,380 对 560 00:18:18,380 --> 00:18:21,089 真的很难找到经历过离婚的人 561 00:18:21,089 --> 00:18:22,690 迫切想低于市场价出售 562 00:18:22,690 --> 00:18:23,390 非常困难 563 00:18:23,390 --> 00:18:23,730 对 564 00:18:23,730 --> 00:18:24,369 是的 565 00:18:24,369 --> 00:18:25,730 这就是我不投资房产的原因 566 00:18:25,730 --> 00:18:27,549 因为很难找到这样的人 567 00:18:27,549 --> 00:18:31,859 但股市的好处是每年都会发生 568 00:18:32,180 --> 00:18:33,759 多亏了唐纳德·特朗普 569 00:18:33,759 --> 00:18:34,220 好的 570 00:18:34,220 --> 00:18:35,079 我只是在开玩笑对吧 571 00:18:35,079 --> 00:18:38,150 但人们总有一些恐惧 572 00:18:38,150 --> 00:18:38,630 你知道的 573 00:18:38,630 --> 00:18:39,049 特朗普 574 00:18:39,049 --> 00:18:39,470 你知道的 575 00:18:39,470 --> 00:18:42,430 有这场战争，他们要加息 576 00:18:42,430 --> 00:18:44,690 市场总会有各种波动因素 577 00:18:44,690 --> 00:18:47,269 每当市场出现这类事件 578 00:18:47,269 --> 00:18:47,509 引发恐慌 579 00:18:47,509 --> 00:18:48,069 X 啊 580 00:18:48,069 --> 00:18:48,309 对 581 00:18:48,309 --> 00:18:51,339 这时股价可能会暂时下跌 582 00:18:51,339 --> 00:18:52,019 你知道的 583 00:18:52,019 --> 00:18:53,980 低于估值20%到50% 584 00:18:53,980 --> 00:18:58,578 正是我利用这种短期恐慌致富的方法 585 00:18:58,578 --> 00:18:59,138 人们存在的恐慌 586 00:18:59,138 --> 00:18:59,699 他们恐慌 587 00:18:59,699 --> 00:19:01,900 抛售股票而我低价接手 588 00:19:01,900 --> 00:19:03,539 是否需要30%的估值 589 00:19:03,539 --> 00:19:04,519 但再说 590 00:19:04,519 --> 00:19:05,460 关键在于 591 00:19:05,460 --> 00:19:07,450 必须知道该买哪些 592 00:19:07,450 --> 00:19:09,779 如果你买的是廉价劣质公司 593 00:19:09,779 --> 00:19:11,240 低价还会更低 594 00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:12,500 永远回不来 595 00:19:12,500 --> 00:19:14,460 但若买入优质廉价公司 596 00:19:14,460 --> 00:19:15,900 它们总会反弹 597 00:19:15,900 --> 00:19:17,179 这才是关键 598 00:19:17,179 --> 00:19:17,499 没错 599 00:19:17,499 --> 00:19:18,019 我觉得这个 600 00:19:18,019 --> 00:19:20,699 许多新投资者的问题在于 601 00:19:20,699 --> 00:19:22,289 当他们看到市场下跌时 602 00:19:22,289 --> 00:19:23,589 他们看到所有股票都在下跌 603 00:19:23,589 --> 00:19:26,930 他们缺乏分析哪些股票真正有价值的洞察力 604 00:19:26,930 --> 00:19:27,250 是的 605 00:19:27,250 --> 00:19:28,950 他们根本不懂得区分一家公司 606 00:19:28,950 --> 00:19:29,750 一段视频 607 00:19:29,750 --> 00:19:30,369 毫无头绪 608 00:19:30,369 --> 00:19:30,869 有什么区别 609 00:19:30,869 --> 00:19:31,349 对 610 00:19:31,349 --> 00:19:31,890 对他们来说 611 00:19:31,890 --> 00:19:32,849 他们只看微芯科技 612 00:19:32,849 --> 00:19:33,869 看看英伟达 613 00:19:33,869 --> 00:19:35,329 有什么区别对吧 614 00:19:35,329 --> 00:19:36,759 这是巨大差异对吧 615 00:19:36,759 --> 00:19:38,759 我认为在我学会投资之前 616 00:19:38,759 --> 00:19:40,119 当我看到这类股票时 617 00:19:40,119 --> 00:19:43,480 甚至不会去看营收增长或利润增长 618 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:44,619 我只是随便看看 619 00:19:44,619 --> 00:19:45,859 或者这家公司好不好 620 00:19:45,859 --> 00:19:46,500 然后就像 621 00:19:46,500 --> 00:19:47,400 我不看数据 622 00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:49,599 我只是觉得这家公司好不好 623 00:19:49,599 --> 00:19:50,279 是的 624 00:19:50,279 --> 00:19:50,849 对啊 625 00:19:50,849 --> 00:19:51,210 好的 626 00:19:51,210 --> 00:19:53,049 说到可持续增长 627 00:19:53,049 --> 00:19:58,210 当你看到像英伟达这样利润疯狂增长的公司 628 00:19:58,210 --> 00:20:01,470 你认为这对公司可持续吗 629 00:20:01,470 --> 00:20:03,829 比如英伟达具体来说 630 00:20:03,829 --> 00:20:05,710 我认为这非常可持续 631 00:20:05,710 --> 00:20:11,819 因为英伟达以前是销售GPU图形处理器的公司 632 00:20:11,819 --> 00:20:12,920 主要是给游戏玩家 633 00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:13,380 对 634 00:20:13,380 --> 00:20:14,940 他们不再只卖GPU 635 00:20:14,940 --> 00:20:18,839 现在销售完整的AI工厂解决方案 636 00:20:18,839 --> 00:20:21,420 不仅包括GPU 637 00:20:21,420 --> 00:20:22,819 还有整个软件生态系统 638 00:20:22,819 --> 00:20:24,579 不仅用于游戏 639 00:20:24,579 --> 00:20:28,589 还用于数据中心 640 00:20:28,589 --> 00:20:32,710 我认为这才是更可持续的 641 00:20:32,710 --> 00:20:35,190 比如另一家只卖内存芯片的公司 642 00:20:35,190 --> 00:20:37,470 因为没有软件生态 643 00:20:37,470 --> 00:20:40,650 而内存芯片更具周期性 644 00:20:40,650 --> 00:20:44,089 好的，对于持有AI股票的观众 645 00:20:44,089 --> 00:20:46,888 现在应该自问什么问题 646 00:20:46,888 --> 00:20:51,429 首先你可以问自己，你持有的AI是否 647 00:20:51,429 --> 00:20:52,648 是否再次 648 00:20:52,648 --> 00:20:54,588 具备可持续的竞争优势 649 00:20:54,588 --> 00:20:59,349 是否拥有能持续五到十年的广泛经济护城河 650 00:20:59,349 --> 00:21:00,410 十五二十岁 651 00:21:00,410 --> 00:21:01,990 它有没有狭窄的沼泽 652 00:21:01,990 --> 00:21:03,880 它有没有没有沼泽再次 653 00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:05,039 没有更多意味着是的 654 00:21:05,039 --> 00:21:06,240 现在它可以赚很多钱 655 00:21:06,240 --> 00:21:07,609 利润现在可以大幅增长 656 00:21:07,609 --> 00:21:09,210 但因为它没有更多 657 00:21:09,210 --> 00:21:10,609 可能不可持续 658 00:21:10,609 --> 00:21:14,069 明年可能被竞争轻易打乱 659 00:21:14,069 --> 00:21:16,210 所以如果你有一家没有更多 660 00:21:16,210 --> 00:21:18,150 你涨了很多很好 661 00:21:18,150 --> 00:21:19,769 你最好开始退出 662 00:21:19,769 --> 00:21:21,940 你最好立即出售 663 00:21:21,940 --> 00:21:23,630 因为它可能不可持续 664 00:21:23,630 --> 00:21:26,869 接下来第二个问题是必须计算内在价值 665 00:21:26,869 --> 00:21:28,630 评估公司有很多方法 666 00:21:28,630 --> 00:21:29,150 当然 667 00:21:29,150 --> 00:21:36,240 我常用的一种评估企业方法是折现现金流模型 668 00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:37,079 这是什么意思 669 00:21:37,079 --> 00:21:43,089 这意味着需要预测公司未来二十年的自由现金流 670 00:21:43,089 --> 00:21:46,660 然后折现到现值 671 00:21:46,660 --> 00:21:48,779 企业就是赚钱机器 672 00:21:48,779 --> 00:21:50,160 赚得越多 673 00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:52,089 价值就越高非常简单 674 00:21:52,089 --> 00:21:54,549 企业价值是多少 675 00:21:54,549 --> 00:21:57,170 取决于未来能产生多少资金 676 00:21:57,170 --> 00:21:58,809 对我来说相当保守 677 00:21:58,809 --> 00:22:01,519 我总是采用双阶段时间线 678 00:22:01,519 --> 00:22:03,359 二十年能产生多少 679 00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:05,420 折现到现值 680 00:22:05,420 --> 00:22:08,079 因货币时间价值得到大致估算 681 00:22:08,079 --> 00:22:09,740 这样就知道企业价值 682 00:22:09,740 --> 00:22:12,670 如果我现在持有的股票 683 00:22:12,670 --> 00:22:16,009 假设远超该价值 684 00:22:16,170 --> 00:22:17,349 我就卖出 685 00:22:17,349 --> 00:22:19,210 我确实开始卖出部分股票 686 00:22:19,210 --> 00:22:20,109 我开始逐步卖出 687 00:22:20,109 --> 00:22:21,089 其中一些 688 00:22:21,089 --> 00:22:22,529 因为严重高估 689 00:22:22,529 --> 00:22:25,259 但部分股票价格合理或低估 690 00:22:25,259 --> 00:22:27,859 我继续持有 691 00:22:27,859 --> 00:22:28,519 并持续增持 692 00:22:28,519 --> 00:22:29,880 这就是内在价值的重要性 693 00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:32,039 它是核心要素之一 694 00:22:32,039 --> 00:22:36,150 这是最重要的配方成分 695 00:22:36,150 --> 00:22:36,450 好的 696 00:22:36,450 --> 00:22:36,789 所以亚当 697 00:22:36,789 --> 00:22:41,049 你在社区提到不卖出所有AI股票 698 00:22:41,049 --> 00:22:43,150 但也不全仓投入 699 00:22:43,150 --> 00:22:45,849 现在你的投资组合是什么样子 700 00:22:45,849 --> 00:22:46,349 好的 701 00:22:46,349 --> 00:22:47,609 所以你看 702 00:22:47,609 --> 00:22:48,638 我相信 703 00:22:48,638 --> 00:22:50,338 这对我帮助很大 704 00:22:50,338 --> 00:22:52,919 许多年了，要成为优秀投资者 705 00:22:52,919 --> 00:22:56,500 这不是预测下周市场走势 706 00:22:56,500 --> 00:22:57,619 下月或明年 707 00:22:57,619 --> 00:22:59,279 因为没人能准确预测 708 00:22:59,279 --> 00:23:02,460 告诉你说能确切知道市场走向的人 709 00:23:02,460 --> 00:23:04,529 要么是骗子要么是傻瓜 710 00:23:04,529 --> 00:23:05,930 好的因为没人能做到 711 00:23:05,930 --> 00:23:07,069 不是沃伦·巴菲特 712 00:23:07,069 --> 00:23:08,069 也不是比尔·盖茨 713 00:23:08,069 --> 00:23:08,950 没人能做到对吧 714 00:23:08,950 --> 00:23:09,670 没人能预测 715 00:23:09,670 --> 00:23:12,829 所以投资成功的关键不是预测 716 00:23:12,829 --> 00:23:15,319 人工智能增长何时结束 717 00:23:15,319 --> 00:23:16,579 因为没人知道对吧 718 00:23:16,579 --> 00:23:19,259 而是构建稳健的投资组合 719 00:23:19,259 --> 00:23:22,220 能在各种情况下表现良好 720 00:23:22,220 --> 00:23:25,240 即使人工智能热潮明天结束 721 00:23:25,240 --> 00:23:27,240 我的投资组合仍能表现良好 722 00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:27,640 所以 723 00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:28,759 无论是高利率 724 00:23:28,759 --> 00:23:29,849 低利率 725 00:23:33,170 --> 00:23:35,069 你的投资组合仍应表现良好 726 00:23:35,069 --> 00:23:41,839 因为它跨不同行业和领域充分分散 727 00:23:41,839 --> 00:23:43,680 如果你看看我现在的投资组合 728 00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:49,920 约20%是纯人工智能基建公司 729 00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:54,160 这些公司专注于构建人工智能基础设施 730 00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:56,369 例如半导体股票 731 00:23:56,369 --> 00:23:58,470 这占我投资组合的20% 732 00:23:58,470 --> 00:24:03,719 好的，我投资组合的另外20%是相关AI股票 733 00:24:03,719 --> 00:24:04,858 但并非纯AI 734 00:24:04,858 --> 00:24:06,159 它们还有其他业务 735 00:24:06,159 --> 00:24:10,660 比如Meta平台公司，拥有Facebook、Instagram等 736 00:24:10,660 --> 00:24:13,759 我们知道Meta在构建人工智能 737 00:24:13,759 --> 00:24:15,490 但这不是唯一业务 738 00:24:15,490 --> 00:24:17,789 其他业务是社交媒体 739 00:24:17,789 --> 00:24:19,750 从中赚取大量广告收入 740 00:24:19,750 --> 00:24:23,269 即使AI领域放缓 741 00:24:23,269 --> 00:24:27,160 仍能从广告和其他业务获利 742 00:24:27,160 --> 00:24:29,319 另一个例子是亚马逊 743 00:24:29,319 --> 00:24:32,079 亚马逊参与AI资本建设 744 00:24:32,079 --> 00:24:35,069 但这不是唯一业务 745 00:24:35,069 --> 00:24:35,589 嗯 746 00:24:35,589 --> 00:24:37,569 还有广告业务 747 00:24:37,569 --> 00:24:41,869 事实上亚马逊广告业务已超越YouTube 748 00:24:41,869 --> 00:24:43,769 亚马逊涉足物流领域 749 00:24:43,769 --> 00:24:45,029 亚马逊属于电子商务领域 750 00:24:45,029 --> 00:24:45,990 没错，还有许多其他业务 751 00:24:45,990 --> 00:24:48,609 所以我想这与人工智能相关 752 00:24:48,609 --> 00:24:50,829 但不仅仅是AI，还有其他业务 753 00:24:50,829 --> 00:24:53,190 这并不占我投资组合的20% 754 00:24:53,190 --> 00:24:57,430 我投资组合的40%有AI布局 755 00:24:57,430 --> 00:25:03,098 剩余60%的投资组合几乎无AI关联 756 00:25:04,259 --> 00:25:05,940 但这些都是优质企业 757 00:25:05,940 --> 00:25:06,819 我举个例子 758 00:25:06,819 --> 00:25:11,670 例如这家叫Arch Capital GL的保险公司 759 00:25:11,670 --> 00:25:12,809 与AI无关 760 00:25:12,809 --> 00:25:16,519 他们通过销售专业保险赚取大量利润 761 00:25:16,519 --> 00:25:19,640 这就是我当前的投资布局 762 00:25:20,799 --> 00:25:22,569 这些持仓 763 00:25:22,569 --> 00:25:23,430 纯正的 764 00:25:23,430 --> 00:25:25,490 AI基建建设 765 00:25:25,490 --> 00:25:28,160 我已卖出部分但不多 766 00:25:28,160 --> 00:25:31,660 我已卖出那些不可持续的 767 00:25:31,660 --> 00:25:32,759 价格过高 768 00:25:32,759 --> 00:25:33,799 我一直在卖出 769 00:25:33,799 --> 00:25:35,700 事实上我几乎每天都在买入股票 770 00:25:35,700 --> 00:25:36,440 对于你们这些 771 00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:38,140 在终极投资者指南中的读者 772 00:25:38,140 --> 00:25:39,519 你会收到我的通知 773 00:25:39,519 --> 00:25:41,130 我每日的买卖操作 774 00:25:41,130 --> 00:25:42,390 我不提供投资建议 775 00:25:42,390 --> 00:25:43,089 我只是展示 776 00:25:43,089 --> 00:25:43,950 我的买卖标的 777 00:25:43,950 --> 00:25:45,309 但需自行决策 778 00:25:45,309 --> 00:25:49,390 我几乎每天买入的股票与AI无关 779 00:25:49,390 --> 00:25:50,670 原因很简单 780 00:25:50,670 --> 00:25:56,569 因为我深知AI驱动的牛市终将结束 781 00:25:56,569 --> 00:25:59,950 可能今天、明年或三年后 782 00:25:59,950 --> 00:26:00,309 我不确定 783 00:26:00,309 --> 00:26:01,119 但终会结束 784 00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:03,839 当AI热潮消退 785 00:26:03,839 --> 00:26:04,660 接下来会发生什么 786 00:26:04,660 --> 00:26:07,380 纯AI基建股票 787 00:26:07,380 --> 00:26:09,240 尤其是高估的 788 00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:11,160 将面临大幅回调 789 00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:13,420 可能暴跌50% 790 00:26:13,420 --> 00:26:14,420 但一旦下跌 791 00:26:14,420 --> 00:26:15,480 资金流向何处 792 00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:18,829 资金将涌入 793 00:26:18,829 --> 00:26:21,210 被忽视的非AI股票 794 00:26:21,210 --> 00:26:22,630 被冷落的旧股 795 00:26:22,630 --> 00:26:24,369 这些正是我正在积累的 796 00:26:24,369 --> 00:26:26,490 这个策略并非新创 797 00:26:26,490 --> 00:26:28,750 曾多次出现 798 00:26:28,750 --> 00:26:30,849 如互联网泡沫时期 799 00:26:30,849 --> 00:26:32,910 所以我也不知道你是否已经出生 800 00:26:32,910 --> 00:26:35,869 对于那些还记得互联网泡沫时期的人 801 00:26:35,869 --> 00:26:37,009 那正是1998年 802 00:26:37,009 --> 00:26:38,039 1999年 803 00:26:38,039 --> 00:26:38,980 就是2000年对吧 804 00:26:38,980 --> 00:26:39,799 在那个时期 805 00:26:39,799 --> 00:26:44,000 所有带有.com的股票每天都在上涨对吧 806 00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:44,599 如果你买了它们 807 00:26:44,599 --> 00:26:45,839 你会觉得自己是个天才 808 00:26:45,839 --> 00:26:46,539 好的 809 00:26:46,539 --> 00:26:49,019 但主要区别在于这些互联网公司 810 00:26:49,019 --> 00:26:49,960 它们都没有盈利 811 00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:50,720 至少现在 812 00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:51,720 人工智能公司 813 00:26:51,720 --> 00:26:53,259 其中很多确实盈利了 814 00:26:53,259 --> 00:26:54,359 但当时那些docker公司 815 00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:55,480 它们都没有盈利对吧 816 00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:57,279 每天都在持续上涨 817 00:26:57,279 --> 00:27:00,109 所有资金都在追逐这些股票 818 00:27:00,109 --> 00:27:05,798 而1999年那些非互联网公司 819 00:27:05,798 --> 00:27:07,278 每天都在下跌 820 00:27:07,278 --> 00:27:08,499 几乎每天都在下跌 821 00:27:08,499 --> 00:27:08,739 持续下跌 822 00:27:08,739 --> 00:27:09,419 不受青睐 823 00:27:09,419 --> 00:27:10,138 不受青睐 824 00:27:10,138 --> 00:27:10,638 备受厌恶 825 00:27:10,638 --> 00:27:11,630 被忽视 826 00:27:11,630 --> 00:27:15,309 这些被称为空泡股票或反泡沫股票 827 00:27:15,309 --> 00:27:16,910 但这些公司正在盈利 828 00:27:16,910 --> 00:27:18,369 它们赚了很多钱 829 00:27:18,369 --> 00:27:20,289 就像麦当劳 830 00:27:20,289 --> 00:27:21,930 就像波音公司 831 00:27:21,930 --> 00:27:23,410 就像沃尔玛 832 00:27:23,410 --> 00:27:24,509 没人想要它们 833 00:27:24,509 --> 00:27:26,369 它们被抛弃了 834 00:27:26,369 --> 00:27:28,509 因为没有互联网概念对吧 835 00:27:28,509 --> 00:27:31,449 到了2000年互联网泡沫破裂时 836 00:27:31,449 --> 00:27:35,369 所有互联网股票再次暴跌80%到90% 837 00:27:35,369 --> 00:27:36,730 它们都没真正赚钱 838 00:27:36,730 --> 00:27:37,690 所以就是这样 839 00:27:37,690 --> 00:27:39,710 一半的公司都破产了 840 00:27:39,710 --> 00:27:42,559 所有资金涌入可口可乐 841 00:27:42,559 --> 00:27:43,299 沃尔玛 842 00:27:43,299 --> 00:27:43,940 波音公司 843 00:27:43,940 --> 00:27:44,880 非AI业务 844 00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:46,559 这些随后上涨了两位数 845 00:27:46,559 --> 00:27:48,400 同样的事情现在也会发生 846 00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:52,079 正是我正在为那一天做准备 847 00:27:52,079 --> 00:27:57,249 所以你会说很多专业投资者和对冲基金 848 00:27:57,249 --> 00:28:01,460 也在布局以迎接散户 849 00:28:01,460 --> 00:28:02,299 聪明的人 850 00:28:02,299 --> 00:28:03,940 当然显而易见是聪明的人 851 00:28:03,940 --> 00:28:07,049 当然你有优秀的对冲基金经理 852 00:28:07,049 --> 00:28:08,029 也有糟糕的 853 00:28:08,029 --> 00:28:08,529 是的 854 00:28:08,529 --> 00:28:10,230 聪明的人正在真正做这件事 855 00:28:10,230 --> 00:28:10,730 没错 856 00:28:10,730 --> 00:28:14,069 你可以说你的目标是从AI狂热中获利吗 857 00:28:14,069 --> 00:28:17,380 但不要完全依赖它像往常一样 858 00:28:17,380 --> 00:28:18,980 AI确实存在 859 00:28:18,980 --> 00:28:21,039 AI不是炒作 860 00:28:21,039 --> 00:28:22,420 这确实是个现实 861 00:28:22,420 --> 00:28:23,900 我每天都在使用AI 862 00:28:23,900 --> 00:28:28,049 它确实提高了公司的利润空间 863 00:28:28,049 --> 00:28:28,890 所以这是真实的 864 00:28:28,890 --> 00:28:30,009 我不是说它不真实 865 00:28:30,009 --> 00:28:32,950 但到了所有人都在买入的时候 866 00:28:32,950 --> 00:28:37,339 价格会被估值再次推高 867 00:28:37,339 --> 00:28:38,400 并非所有AI公司 868 00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:41,659 但其中一些有很多AI公司 869 00:28:41,659 --> 00:28:43,549 但我不认为它们很贵 870 00:28:43,549 --> 00:28:47,269 仍然价格合理且未来增长潜力大 871 00:28:47,269 --> 00:28:48,309 英伟达就是其中之一 872 00:28:48,309 --> 00:28:50,109 我认为英伟达一点也不贵 873 00:28:50,109 --> 00:28:50,509 好的 874 00:28:50,509 --> 00:28:51,950 所以我继续持有英伟达 875 00:28:51,950 --> 00:28:53,509 我不再卖出 876 00:28:53,509 --> 00:28:57,159 正如我说的，核心是构建一个组合 877 00:28:57,159 --> 00:29:01,509 能在各种情况下表现良好 878 00:29:01,509 --> 00:29:03,430 我认为很多新投资者 879 00:29:03,430 --> 00:29:04,950 他们持有大量现金 880 00:29:04,950 --> 00:29:06,769 随时可以入场 881 00:29:06,769 --> 00:29:08,430 你会对他们说什么 882 00:29:08,430 --> 00:29:15,130 首先我要说90%的人不应该买股票 883 00:29:15,130 --> 00:29:17,250 应该买入指数基金 884 00:29:17,250 --> 00:29:17,950 ETF 885 00:29:17,950 --> 00:29:19,720 好的理由 886 00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:25,069 90%的人对分析企业毫无兴趣 887 00:29:25,190 --> 00:29:29,150 如果你是不关心分析企业的人 888 00:29:29,150 --> 00:29:31,799 不要勉强自己只买指数 889 00:29:31,799 --> 00:29:33,759 其实就是跟踪指数 890 00:29:33,759 --> 00:29:35,440 或标普500指数 891 00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:36,750 或道琼斯指数 892 00:29:36,750 --> 00:29:37,910 就是这样 893 00:29:37,910 --> 00:29:40,329 长期来看总会上涨 894 00:29:40,329 --> 00:29:41,750 让我解释，它会上下波动 895 00:29:41,750 --> 00:29:44,750 如何配置资金 896 00:29:44,750 --> 00:29:48,450 如果你是大多数新手不懂技术分析 897 00:29:48,450 --> 00:29:50,250 只需定额投资 898 00:29:50,250 --> 00:29:54,940 即每月或每季固定投入 899 00:29:54,940 --> 00:29:56,500 这就是最简单的事情 900 00:29:56,500 --> 00:29:57,779 如果你坚持做长跑训练 901 00:29:57,779 --> 00:29:59,759 复利增长大约在8% 902 00:29:59,759 --> 00:30:00,680 九到十 903 00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:01,670 百分之十一 904 00:30:01,670 --> 00:30:03,089 视市场情况而定 905 00:30:03,089 --> 00:30:03,710 是的 906 00:30:03,710 --> 00:30:05,759 我认为90%的人都应该这样做 907 00:30:05,759 --> 00:30:06,960 当然如果你这样做的话 908 00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:09,480 需要更长时间达成财务自由目标 909 00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:13,700 现在对于想击败市场的10%人群 910 00:30:13,700 --> 00:30:16,009 比如我自己和学生 911 00:30:17,089 --> 00:30:20,079 你必须愿意付出努力 912 00:30:20,079 --> 00:30:22,500 必须愿意分析企业 913 00:30:22,500 --> 00:30:25,099 计算过去内在价值 914 00:30:25,099 --> 00:30:27,529 分析企业需要数小时 915 00:30:27,529 --> 00:30:30,529 当然这就是我创建股票Oracle应用的原因 916 00:30:30,529 --> 00:30:33,519 现在Oracle只需不到三分钟 917 00:30:33,519 --> 00:30:35,039 你可以分析一家企业 918 00:30:35,039 --> 00:30:36,680 这家公司是否可预测 919 00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:37,819 是否盈利 920 00:30:37,819 --> 00:30:38,900 内在价值如何 921 00:30:38,900 --> 00:30:41,029 所有事项均可在三分钟内完成 922 00:30:41,029 --> 00:30:42,109 这让过程变得更容易 923 00:30:42,109 --> 00:30:43,849 但你仍需仔细查看 924 00:30:43,849 --> 00:30:45,909 仍需做些工作 925 00:30:45,909 --> 00:30:48,690 对于愿意付出的人 926 00:30:48,690 --> 00:30:50,349 现在该在市场中做什么 927 00:30:50,349 --> 00:30:51,630 当前市场状况如何 928 00:30:51,630 --> 00:30:53,470 现在是否有优质低估公司 929 00:30:53,470 --> 00:30:54,289 是的 930 00:30:54,289 --> 00:30:54,630 确实存在很多 931 00:30:54,630 --> 00:30:56,019 数量相当多 932 00:30:56,019 --> 00:30:59,909 其中很多是泰国泡沫企业 933 00:30:59,909 --> 00:31:03,339 那些被忽视和厌恶的企业 934 00:31:03,339 --> 00:31:05,380 因为它们缺乏AI技术 935 00:31:05,380 --> 00:31:06,940 这些正是我每日买入的 936 00:31:06,940 --> 00:31:08,940 我将在即将的网络研讨会展示 937 00:31:08,940 --> 00:31:10,659 我关注的目标企业 938 00:31:10,659 --> 00:31:15,528 你认为AI板块轮动已经开始了吗 939 00:31:15,528 --> 00:31:17,808 还是仍处于中期或初期 940 00:31:17,808 --> 00:31:19,449 在AI领域 941 00:31:19,449 --> 00:31:22,148 每隔几天就会有小幅轮动 942 00:31:22,148 --> 00:31:26,210 前几天开始看到部分AI资本支出股下跌 943 00:31:26,210 --> 00:31:27,730 而非AI板块随之上涨 944 00:31:27,730 --> 00:31:28,789 你已观察到这种变化 945 00:31:28,789 --> 00:31:32,429 但无人能准确预测大轮动何时发生 946 00:31:32,429 --> 00:31:33,929 正如我说的可能明天就来 947 00:31:33,929 --> 00:31:35,128 也可能明年才会到来 948 00:31:35,128 --> 00:31:36,388 我不得而知 949 00:31:36,388 --> 00:31:36,788 好的 950 00:31:36,788 --> 00:31:40,848 如果你今天有十万或一百万美元 951 00:31:40,848 --> 00:31:42,828 并且是投资新手 952 00:31:42,828 --> 00:31:44,249 你会怎么看待 953 00:31:44,249 --> 00:31:44,608 在此之前 954 00:31:44,608 --> 00:31:45,679 在购买任何东西之前 955 00:31:45,679 --> 00:31:51,069 首先要做的是决定你的投资组合中要配置多少股票 956 00:31:51,069 --> 00:31:54,910 所以我总是告诉人们永远不要把所有钱都投入一只股票 957 00:31:54,910 --> 00:31:56,650 无论你觉得它多么优秀 958 00:31:56,650 --> 00:32:00,159 因为任何事情都可能发生，你无法完全预测 959 00:32:00,159 --> 00:32:00,739 你知道的 960 00:32:00,739 --> 00:32:04,450 假设你把所有钱投入特斯拉和SpaceX 961 00:32:04,450 --> 00:32:08,589 如果第二天埃隆·马斯克被火箭击中会怎样 962 00:32:08,589 --> 00:32:10,599 他是关键人物对吧 963 00:32:10,599 --> 00:32:12,079 高关键人物风险 964 00:32:12,079 --> 00:32:13,640 你的整个业务可能就此消失 965 00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:15,789 因为现在关键人物风险极高 966 00:32:15,789 --> 00:32:16,069 当然 967 00:32:16,069 --> 00:32:17,269 如果你投资麦当劳 968 00:32:17,269 --> 00:32:19,589 麦当劳CEO被汉堡包击中 969 00:32:19,589 --> 00:32:20,390 你根本不在乎 970 00:32:20,390 --> 00:32:22,710 因为它不依赖他个人 971 00:32:22,710 --> 00:32:23,150 好的 972 00:32:23,150 --> 00:32:25,529 核心要点是第一条 973 00:32:25,529 --> 00:32:26,849 你必须制定计划 974 00:32:26,849 --> 00:32:28,430 如何配置投资组合中的股票 975 00:32:28,430 --> 00:32:32,819 我总是告诉学生至少配置八到十只 976 00:32:33,220 --> 00:32:35,759 将资金至少分散到八到十只 977 00:32:35,759 --> 00:32:36,940 优质公司 978 00:32:36,940 --> 00:32:40,359 这就是第一步，决定是否配置十只 979 00:32:40,359 --> 00:32:42,960 是否至少配置八到十只 980 00:32:42,960 --> 00:32:44,640 接下来的步骤是 981 00:32:44,640 --> 00:32:48,809 确定投资组合中的八到十只股票 982 00:32:48,809 --> 00:32:51,630 这些八到十只股票应为高质量公司 983 00:32:51,630 --> 00:32:55,549 再次强调，这些公司具有强大的商业模式 984 00:32:55,549 --> 00:32:57,230 增长可持续 985 00:32:57,230 --> 00:32:59,230 再次以星象仪为例 986 00:32:59,230 --> 00:33:01,680 你可以在三到五分钟内完成检查 987 00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:04,140 我们用星象仪关注五个要点 988 00:33:04,140 --> 00:33:06,740 首先是增长可预测 989 00:33:06,740 --> 00:33:08,700 利润和收入是否可预测 990 00:33:08,700 --> 00:33:09,319 首先是第一条 991 00:33:09,319 --> 00:33:12,759 第二条是高盈利能力 992 00:33:12,759 --> 00:33:14,380 是否具有高资本回报率 993 00:33:14,380 --> 00:33:15,579 高利润率 994 00:33:15,579 --> 00:33:17,519 第三点我们关注 995 00:33:17,519 --> 00:33:18,880 护城河是否坚固 996 00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:20,109 是否具备强大模式 997 00:33:20,109 --> 00:33:24,939 第四点要确保公司几乎没有债务 998 00:33:24,939 --> 00:33:26,558 如果债务过高 999 00:33:26,558 --> 00:33:27,739 这非常危险 1000 00:33:27,739 --> 00:33:29,939 这就是雷曼兄弟破产的原因 1001 00:33:29,939 --> 00:33:32,269 这就是高福克斯破产的方式 1002 00:33:32,269 --> 00:33:33,670 因为债务过高 1003 00:33:33,670 --> 00:33:36,690 所以我们希望投资有可持续债务的公司 1004 00:33:36,690 --> 00:33:38,309 最后一个因素是估值 1005 00:33:38,309 --> 00:33:41,250 所以我们必须通过这五个核心支柱 1006 00:33:41,250 --> 00:33:45,779 然后我们将这八只股票纳入投资组合并逐步买入 1007 00:33:45,779 --> 00:33:47,059 不要一次性全部买入 1008 00:33:47,059 --> 00:33:47,759 你会买入它们 1009 00:33:47,759 --> 00:33:52,130 当股价跌至内在价值以下的技术支撑位时 1010 00:33:52,130 --> 00:33:53,470 所以在网络研讨会中 1011 00:33:53,470 --> 00:33:57,059 我将讲解如何识别这些技术支撑位 1012 00:33:57,059 --> 00:33:58,940 这就是我要加仓的位置 1013 00:33:58,940 --> 00:34:03,000 这些就是成功投资的几条准则 1014 00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:07,750 我教授的投资方法非常机械 1015 00:34:07,750 --> 00:34:08,309 没错 1016 00:34:08,309 --> 00:34:10,449 我的投资方式是 1017 00:34:10,449 --> 00:34:12,070 我不做任何预测 1018 00:34:12,070 --> 00:34:12,489 因为 1019 00:34:12,489 --> 00:34:12,889 正如我所说 1020 00:34:12,889 --> 00:34:16,230 没有人能在短期内预测市场走向 1021 00:34:16,230 --> 00:34:19,969 原因很简单 1022 00:34:19,969 --> 00:34:21,130 除非你睡在特朗普旁边 1023 00:34:21,130 --> 00:34:23,610 第二天你无法正确应对 1024 00:34:23,610 --> 00:34:24,550 所以任何告诉你 1025 00:34:24,550 --> 00:34:27,070 我能预测市场的人都是骗子 1026 00:34:27,070 --> 00:34:28,639 或者是个白痴 1027 00:34:28,639 --> 00:34:29,119 没错 1028 00:34:29,119 --> 00:34:31,688 我甚至无法预测妻子明天的心情 1029 00:34:31,688 --> 00:34:34,168 因为我不知道丈夫会对她说什么 1030 00:34:34,168 --> 00:34:36,409 或者她是否会遇到堵车 1031 00:34:36,409 --> 00:34:37,548 我根本无法预测 1032 00:34:37,548 --> 00:34:42,179 所以我教授的投资方法是停止预测，这浪费时间 1033 00:34:42,179 --> 00:34:42,920 相反 1034 00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:45,159 我教授的规则非常机械 1035 00:34:45,159 --> 00:34:48,418 识别优质公司，了解内在价值 1036 00:34:48,418 --> 00:34:50,559 当价格跌破内在价值时 1037 00:34:50,559 --> 00:34:53,199 逐步加仓构建组合 1038 00:34:53,199 --> 00:34:54,650 这样就能做得很好 1039 00:34:54,650 --> 00:34:59,590 当前周期中散户投资者最大的错误是什么 1040 00:34:59,590 --> 00:35:03,748 散户投资者最大的错误是没有了解 1041 00:35:03,748 --> 00:35:05,668 他们买入股票背后的业务 1042 00:35:05,668 --> 00:35:08,509 并将股市当作赌场 1043 00:35:08,509 --> 00:35:10,670 试图预测 1044 00:35:10,670 --> 00:35:12,150 这只股票明天会涨到哪里 1045 00:35:12,150 --> 00:35:12,710 下周会怎样 1046 00:35:12,710 --> 00:35:13,750 下月会上涨吗 1047 00:35:13,750 --> 00:35:14,449 当它下跌时 1048 00:35:14,449 --> 00:35:15,639 如果你这样做 1049 00:35:15,639 --> 00:35:16,739 你在赌博 1050 00:35:16,739 --> 00:35:17,719 这不是投资 1051 00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:18,719 如果你赌博 1052 00:35:18,719 --> 00:35:19,679 你能赚钱吗 1053 00:35:19,679 --> 00:35:21,039 当然能啊 1054 00:35:21,039 --> 00:35:22,539 很多玩家赚了很多钱 1055 00:35:22,539 --> 00:35:23,780 但不会长久 1056 00:35:23,780 --> 00:35:25,840 因为终会运气用尽 1057 00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:27,139 而你赚到的一切 1058 00:35:27,139 --> 00:35:27,880 终将失去 1059 00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:28,789 还会更多 1060 00:35:28,789 --> 00:35:31,210 因为赌场最终必胜 1061 00:35:31,210 --> 00:35:32,539 赌场赢得赌局 1062 00:35:32,539 --> 00:35:35,420 但若从不同视角看股市 1063 00:35:35,420 --> 00:35:36,019 比如我 1064 00:35:36,019 --> 00:35:37,860 我不视市场为赌场 1065 00:35:37,860 --> 00:35:43,739 我视其为每日打折的超市 1066 00:35:43,739 --> 00:35:46,559 但超市中所有企业 1067 00:35:46,559 --> 00:35:50,528 不到1%是优质企业 1068 00:35:50,528 --> 00:35:52,349 99%非优质企业 1069 00:35:52,349 --> 00:35:54,148 所以我只选1% 1070 00:35:54,148 --> 00:35:56,190 并趁打折买入 1071 00:35:56,190 --> 00:35:57,889 当你看市场时 1072 00:35:57,889 --> 00:35:58,909 从这视角 1073 00:35:58,909 --> 00:36:00,750 你不再是赌徒 1074 00:36:00,750 --> 00:36:04,469 你成为庄家终胜 1075 00:36:04,469 --> 00:36:06,389 我想了解你的思维模型 1076 00:36:06,389 --> 00:36:07,449 当你卖出股票 1077 00:36:07,449 --> 00:36:07,690 比如 1078 00:36:07,690 --> 00:36:09,949 何时决定卖出这只股票 1079 00:36:09,949 --> 00:36:11,690 何时决定持有 1080 00:36:11,690 --> 00:36:12,949 所以当我提到股票 1081 00:36:12,949 --> 00:36:14,230 首先得看 1082 00:36:14,230 --> 00:36:16,650 我是以投资入场的吗 1083 00:36:16,650 --> 00:36:18,250 还是以交易入场的 1084 00:36:18,250 --> 00:36:18,710 明白 1085 00:36:18,710 --> 00:36:21,679 所以我同时做投资和交易 1086 00:36:21,679 --> 00:36:24,760 尽管大部分持仓是投资 1087 00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:28,469 少数是短期投机交易 1088 00:36:28,469 --> 00:36:29,730 显然如果是交易 1089 00:36:29,730 --> 00:36:30,730 那就很简单 1090 00:36:30,730 --> 00:36:32,230 进入交易的瞬间 1091 00:36:32,230 --> 00:36:33,190 这是一次投机交易 1092 00:36:33,190 --> 00:36:34,960 我入场时设止损 1093 00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:35,360 好的 1094 00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:38,559 止损位设在战略位置并设盈利目标 1095 00:36:38,559 --> 00:36:39,960 退出非常简单 1096 00:36:39,960 --> 00:36:40,960 一旦触发止损 1097 00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:41,519 立即离场 1098 00:36:41,519 --> 00:36:43,219 我亏损一单位 1099 00:36:43,219 --> 00:36:44,239 这里是利润目标 1100 00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:45,820 我以盈利离场 1101 00:36:45,820 --> 00:36:46,519 我赚了两个wow 1102 00:36:46,519 --> 00:36:49,019 这对交易或投资来说非常简单 1103 00:36:49,019 --> 00:36:51,199 我的入场和离场决策 1104 00:36:51,199 --> 00:36:54,469 与价格走势无关，而是与企业本身相关 1105 00:36:54,469 --> 00:36:57,039 所以当我投资一家企业时 1106 00:36:57,039 --> 00:36:59,179 我知道企业会随着时间持续增长 1107 00:36:59,179 --> 00:37:00,079 然后我选择退出 1108 00:37:00,079 --> 00:37:04,590 如果我觉得企业不再会增长 1109 00:37:04,590 --> 00:37:07,568 或者我认为其竞争优势在减弱 1110 00:37:07,568 --> 00:37:12,619 或者企业基本面出现永久性恶化 1111 00:37:12,619 --> 00:37:14,360 或者这是一家优质企业 1112 00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:16,460 但因价格远超价值而卖出 1113 00:37:16,460 --> 00:37:20,019 如果股价超过内在价值100%以上 1114 00:37:20,019 --> 00:37:21,449 然后我开始逐步加仓 1115 00:37:21,449 --> 00:37:22,949 对于普通人来说 1116 00:37:22,949 --> 00:37:25,789 你觉得理财的策略是什么 1117 00:37:25,789 --> 00:37:27,369 储蓄与投资 1118 00:37:27,369 --> 00:37:27,809 比如 1119 00:37:27,809 --> 00:37:30,599 应该如何合理分配收入 1120 00:37:30,599 --> 00:37:30,878 你知道的 1121 00:37:30,878 --> 00:37:34,619 基本原则是至少储蓄收入的10% 1122 00:37:34,619 --> 00:37:38,920 新加坡的优势是强制储蓄CPF制度 1123 00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:40,420 有些人可能已经了解这一点 1124 00:37:40,420 --> 00:37:45,489 但你可以用CPF部分储蓄投资股市 1125 00:37:45,489 --> 00:37:49,530 甚至通过标普指数基金投资美股 1126 00:37:49,530 --> 00:37:52,769 当然如果能用现金更多投资 1127 00:37:52,769 --> 00:37:53,889 那就更好了 1128 00:37:53,889 --> 00:37:55,510 越多越好 1129 00:37:55,510 --> 00:37:58,170 真正加速我财富积累的关键 1130 00:37:58,170 --> 00:38:01,778 是在年轻时就学会收支有余 1131 00:38:01,778 --> 00:38:05,398 无论月薪两万还是十万 1132 00:38:05,398 --> 00:38:07,159 我总是支出少于收入 1133 00:38:07,159 --> 00:38:08,918 这个习惯一直保持至今 1134 00:38:08,918 --> 00:38:10,980 不要购买愚蠢的东西 1135 00:38:10,980 --> 00:38:12,559 那些 1136 00:38:12,559 --> 00:38:13,440 并非必需品 1137 00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:14,460 只为了购买物品 1138 00:38:14,460 --> 00:38:16,039 向他人炫耀 1139 00:38:16,039 --> 00:38:17,340 但人们其实并不在意 1140 00:38:18,380 --> 00:38:19,099 是的 1141 00:38:19,099 --> 00:38:22,019 我知道你一直在积极交易期权 1142 00:38:22,019 --> 00:38:23,840 近期表现如何 1143 00:38:23,840 --> 00:38:27,869 在当前AI热潮市场有变化吗 1144 00:38:27,869 --> 00:38:28,710 没有不同 1145 00:38:28,710 --> 00:38:34,789 在我的终极投资者策略中 1146 00:38:34,789 --> 00:38:36,030 订阅服务 1147 00:38:36,030 --> 00:38:37,800 你将获得所有期权 1148 00:38:37,800 --> 00:38:39,719 每日交易提醒 1149 00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:41,659 这不是一个人们应该遵循的建议 1150 00:38:41,659 --> 00:38:43,239 但具有教育意义 1151 00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:44,780 你可以看到我是如何交易期权的 1152 00:38:44,780 --> 00:38:45,800 每天都在进行 1153 00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:47,239 存在许多期权策略 1154 00:38:47,239 --> 00:38:47,900 呃 1155 00:38:47,900 --> 00:38:52,920 我使用的大多数期权策略并非用于投机 1156 00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:55,739 并非用于预测 1157 00:38:55,739 --> 00:38:56,800 市场走向 1158 00:38:56,800 --> 00:38:59,500 我大多数策略可以称为 1159 00:38:59,500 --> 00:39:02,280 市场中性策略，我不太在意 1160 00:39:02,280 --> 00:39:03,119 市场走向 1161 00:39:03,119 --> 00:39:03,539 是的 1162 00:39:03,539 --> 00:39:07,789 我主要做的事情之一是卖出保护性看跌期权 1163 00:39:07,789 --> 00:39:10,219 在股票上卖出看跌期权 1164 00:39:10,219 --> 00:39:13,159 通俗来说就像卖出保险 1165 00:39:13,159 --> 00:39:14,800 大型基金经理 1166 00:39:14,800 --> 00:39:16,510 当市场下跌时 1167 00:39:16,510 --> 00:39:21,059 他们会购买保险以降低投资组合波动性 1168 00:39:21,059 --> 00:39:22,320 通过购买保险 1169 00:39:22,320 --> 00:39:23,760 他们需要支付保费 1170 00:39:23,760 --> 00:39:25,900 那么谁在卖这些保险 1171 00:39:25,900 --> 00:39:26,780 就是我，好吧 1172 00:39:26,780 --> 00:39:28,320 我是卖保险的人 1173 00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:29,309 但再次强调 1174 00:39:29,309 --> 00:39:32,369 像聪明的保险公司卖车险 1175 00:39:32,369 --> 00:39:32,989 例如 1176 00:39:32,989 --> 00:39:35,889 你会确保不承保鲁莽司机 1177 00:39:35,889 --> 00:39:38,670 而是承保谨慎司机对吧 1178 00:39:38,670 --> 00:39:39,809 这就是如何收取保费 1179 00:39:39,809 --> 00:39:40,750 对我也是如此 1180 00:39:40,750 --> 00:39:41,769 在所有股票中 1181 00:39:41,769 --> 00:39:42,550 在市场里 1182 00:39:42,550 --> 00:39:46,760 不到1%的股票是优质企业 1183 00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:50,619 所以我只在这些优质公司 1184 00:39:50,619 --> 00:39:54,989 在股价临时下跌时卖出看跌期权 1185 00:39:54,989 --> 00:39:56,228 这就是我收取保费的方式 1186 00:39:56,228 --> 00:39:57,139 对我来说 1187 00:39:57,139 --> 00:40:01,340 这已成为非常稳定的收入来源 1188 00:40:01,340 --> 00:40:07,550 话说回来，偶尔我也用期权交易股票反弹 1189 00:40:07,550 --> 00:40:10,469 通过使用看涨合成价差策略 1190 00:40:10,469 --> 00:40:11,489 我将会教授 1191 00:40:11,489 --> 00:40:12,050 事实上 1192 00:40:12,050 --> 00:40:15,300 在即将举行的反泡沫狂热网络研讨会 1193 00:40:15,300 --> 00:40:17,699 我也会分享这个策略 1194 00:40:17,699 --> 00:40:19,320 看涨合成价差策略 1195 00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:24,960 这是一种用不到四分之一资本交易百股股票的方法 1196 00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:26,159 所需资本 1197 00:40:26,159 --> 00:40:28,840 看涨合成价差策略所需资本 1198 00:40:28,840 --> 00:40:33,659 你认为交易这个策略的最低账户规模是多少 1199 00:40:33,659 --> 00:40:36,280 一个合适的最低账户规模应该是 1200 00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:39,230 我可以说至少三万美元三万美元 1201 00:40:39,230 --> 00:40:39,670 是的 1202 00:40:39,670 --> 00:40:42,880 三万四万五万这将是良好的账户规模 1203 00:40:42,880 --> 00:40:43,780 好的那么亚当 1204 00:40:43,780 --> 00:40:49,898 你能给我们简要讲解一下如何操作现金担保看跌期权策略吗 1205 00:40:49,898 --> 00:40:50,579 好的 1206 00:40:50,579 --> 00:40:52,539 这里有一个简单示例 1207 00:40:52,539 --> 00:40:55,539 假设我们再次以微软股票为例 1208 00:40:55,539 --> 00:40:58,719 必须选择一家非常稳健的公司 1209 00:40:58,719 --> 00:40:59,880 我相信长期来看 1210 00:40:59,880 --> 00:41:00,869 它总是上涨 1211 00:41:00,869 --> 00:41:02,530 但短期会有波动 1212 00:41:02,530 --> 00:41:06,110 目前微软股价约为四百美元 1213 00:41:06,110 --> 00:41:08,989 首先我必须确认其是否被低估 1214 00:41:08,989 --> 00:41:10,690 所以我需要知道内在价值 1215 00:41:10,690 --> 00:41:12,849 这可以通过股票Oracle轻松查询 1216 00:41:12,849 --> 00:41:16,219 假设内在价值为五百五十美元 1217 00:41:16,219 --> 00:41:19,039 估值五十五十而当前仅为四百 1218 00:41:19,039 --> 00:41:20,510 因此并未被低估 1219 00:41:20,510 --> 00:41:21,190 好的 1220 00:41:21,190 --> 00:41:22,949 现在我可以立即买入股票吗 1221 00:41:22,949 --> 00:41:23,889 如果我想的话 1222 00:41:23,889 --> 00:41:24,469 当然可以 1223 00:41:24,469 --> 00:41:25,429 如果我想操作的话 1224 00:41:25,429 --> 00:41:27,690 但假设我想采取欲擒故纵策略 1225 00:41:27,690 --> 00:41:31,210 所以我不会在四百时买入 1226 00:41:31,210 --> 00:41:31,769 好的 1227 00:41:31,769 --> 00:41:34,429 我将卖出执行价为三十五的看跌期权 1228 00:41:34,429 --> 00:41:37,050 例如设定执行价三十五 1229 00:41:37,050 --> 00:41:38,150 这代表什么含义 1230 00:41:38,150 --> 00:41:42,550 卖出三十五执行价的看跌期权 1231 00:41:42,550 --> 00:41:44,070 相当于出售保险 1232 00:41:44,070 --> 00:41:45,070 当我卖出保险 1233 00:41:45,070 --> 00:41:46,210 会收取保费 1234 00:41:46,210 --> 00:41:48,110 因此能提前获得资金 1235 00:41:48,110 --> 00:41:49,809 但通过卖出保险 1236 00:41:49,809 --> 00:41:53,940 我现在有义务在三十五买入股票 1237 00:41:53,940 --> 00:41:55,880 在特定到期日 1238 00:41:55,880 --> 00:41:58,099 通常约三十到四十五天内 1239 00:41:58,099 --> 00:42:00,610 在接下来的三十到四十五天 1240 00:42:00,610 --> 00:42:03,730 如果微软股价从四百上涨 1241 00:42:03,730 --> 00:42:04,469 股价上涨 1242 00:42:04,469 --> 00:42:06,090 或横盘整理 1243 00:42:06,090 --> 00:42:07,710 甚至下跌 1244 00:42:07,710 --> 00:42:10,039 但不会跌破三十五 1245 00:42:10,039 --> 00:42:11,260 那会发生什么 1246 00:42:11,260 --> 00:42:13,099 到期日时 1247 00:42:13,099 --> 00:42:16,739 看跌期权将到期失效 1248 00:42:16,739 --> 00:42:19,900 我卖出的保险也将失效 1249 00:42:19,900 --> 00:42:21,489 我只需保留这笔溢价 1250 00:42:21,489 --> 00:42:23,010 这就像获得免费资金 1251 00:42:23,010 --> 00:42:24,829 但在接下来的三十到四十五天内 1252 00:42:24,829 --> 00:42:29,559 如果微软股价跌破350并维持 1253 00:42:29,559 --> 00:42:32,300 我有义务以350元买入股票 1254 00:42:32,300 --> 00:42:33,500 这我并不介意 1255 00:42:33,500 --> 00:42:36,949 因为微软价值550至500元 1256 00:42:36,949 --> 00:42:37,909 或者大幅折价 1257 00:42:37,909 --> 00:42:38,829 对吧嗯 1258 00:42:38,829 --> 00:42:40,489 对我来说是双赢局面 1259 00:42:40,489 --> 00:42:41,690 我说这是双赢 1260 00:42:41,690 --> 00:42:41,869 所以 1261 00:42:41,869 --> 00:42:43,840 如果微软跌破350 1262 00:42:43,840 --> 00:42:45,559 我赢了因为能低价买入 1263 00:42:45,559 --> 00:42:45,960 好的 1264 00:42:45,960 --> 00:42:49,599 我以350买入并获得十美元溢价 1265 00:42:49,599 --> 00:42:52,460 假设溢价是十美元 1266 00:42:52,460 --> 00:42:54,610 这笔溢价是预先收取的对吧 1267 00:42:54,610 --> 00:42:58,389 所以我以350买入并收取十美元 1268 00:42:58,389 --> 00:43:00,400 实际价格是340元 1269 00:43:00,400 --> 00:43:01,239 这非常便宜 1270 00:43:01,239 --> 00:43:01,619 没错 1271 00:43:01,619 --> 00:43:03,760 但如果微软未跌破350 1272 00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:04,480 股价上涨 1273 00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:06,239 横盘或下跌 1274 00:43:06,239 --> 00:43:07,659 但高于350 1275 00:43:07,659 --> 00:43:09,260 我就无法买入股票 1276 00:43:09,260 --> 00:43:10,568 但能保留这十美元 1277 00:43:10,568 --> 00:43:11,369 对我来说 1278 00:43:11,369 --> 00:43:12,668 这是双赢局面 1279 00:43:12,668 --> 00:43:17,150 在尝试交易期权前需了解什么 1280 00:43:17,150 --> 00:43:17,730 是的 1281 00:43:17,730 --> 00:43:19,210 请勿交易期权 1282 00:43:19,210 --> 00:43:21,230 除非清楚自己在做什么 1283 00:43:21,230 --> 00:43:22,750 并完成我们的期权课程 1284 00:43:22,750 --> 00:43:26,929 波浪骑手课程涵盖所有期权知识 1285 00:43:26,929 --> 00:43:29,289 必须理解风险 1286 00:43:29,289 --> 00:43:30,699 收益 1287 00:43:30,699 --> 00:43:32,119 如何管理交易 1288 00:43:32,119 --> 00:43:33,159 或入场规则 1289 00:43:33,159 --> 00:43:34,420 以及出场规则 1290 00:43:34,420 --> 00:43:34,900 好的 1291 00:43:34,900 --> 00:43:35,340 再次强调 1292 00:43:35,340 --> 00:43:37,460 这回到类比 1293 00:43:37,460 --> 00:43:41,920 请勿未经培训就开车 1294 00:43:41,920 --> 00:43:43,239 需了解绿灯 1295 00:43:43,239 --> 00:43:44,019 红灯含义 1296 00:43:44,019 --> 00:43:45,159 需知限速 1297 00:43:45,159 --> 00:43:46,900 所有这些都适用于期权 1298 00:43:46,900 --> 00:43:47,539 高风险 1299 00:43:47,539 --> 00:43:47,940 是的 1300 00:43:47,940 --> 00:43:50,358 投资选项风险极大 1301 00:43:50,358 --> 00:43:52,798 如果你不了解自己在做什么，和其他事情一样 1302 00:43:52,798 --> 00:43:54,559 结婚风险极高 1303 00:43:54,559 --> 00:43:56,079 如果你嫁错了人 1304 00:43:56,079 --> 00:43:58,440 如果你不清楚自己是否选对了配偶 1305 00:43:58,440 --> 00:43:59,960 但如果你清楚自己要娶谁 1306 00:43:59,960 --> 00:44:01,659 如果你懂得如何驾驶 1307 00:44:01,659 --> 00:44:03,690 如果你了解期权运作原理 1308 00:44:03,690 --> 00:44:06,489 那么风险就不再那么大了 1309 00:44:06,489 --> 00:44:06,889 好的 1310 00:44:06,889 --> 00:44:11,969 我很想听听你的股息与收入投资组合 1311 00:44:11,969 --> 00:44:16,679 我知道你曾说每年能获得四五十万美元 1312 00:44:16,679 --> 00:44:18,639 仅来自股息投资 1313 00:44:18,639 --> 00:44:21,179 这足以实现财务自由 1314 00:44:21,179 --> 00:44:22,119 绰绰有余 1315 00:44:22,119 --> 00:44:22,739 是啊 1316 00:44:22,739 --> 00:44:26,639 实际金额接近七万美元 1317 00:44:26,639 --> 00:44:31,570 我每年能收到七万美元的股息和利息收入 1318 00:44:31,570 --> 00:44:33,030 这完全是被动收入 1319 00:44:33,030 --> 00:44:35,219 我每年都能收到这笔钱 1320 00:44:35,219 --> 00:44:36,340 在新加坡有个好消息 1321 00:44:36,340 --> 00:44:37,219 免税 1322 00:44:37,219 --> 00:44:38,320 完全免税 1323 00:44:38,320 --> 00:44:40,139 因为在新加坡股息免税 1324 00:44:40,139 --> 00:44:41,280 利息也免税 1325 00:44:41,280 --> 00:44:45,429 我通过构建收入型资产组合实现 1326 00:44:45,429 --> 00:44:51,079 资产包括第一类房地产投资信托 1327 00:44:51,079 --> 00:44:52,639 只购买高质量产品 1328 00:44:52,639 --> 00:44:55,340 其次还有债券 1329 00:44:55,340 --> 00:44:57,300 主要投资级债券 1330 00:44:57,300 --> 00:44:59,369 但也有一些高收益债券 1331 00:44:59,369 --> 00:45:01,250 第三类私人信贷 1332 00:45:01,250 --> 00:45:05,530 通过BDC购买上市私人信贷 1333 00:45:05,530 --> 00:45:06,289 你将要学习 1334 00:45:06,289 --> 00:45:09,019 什么是非上市私人信贷 1335 00:45:09,019 --> 00:45:10,440 可通过银行购买 1336 00:45:10,440 --> 00:45:11,920 第四类 1337 00:45:11,920 --> 00:45:13,650 特定分红股票 1338 00:45:13,650 --> 00:45:16,369 其中大部分分红股票来自新加坡银行 1339 00:45:16,369 --> 00:45:17,090 我认为这些非常适合分红投资 1340 00:45:17,090 --> 00:45:20,068 所以在即将的网络研讨会中 1341 00:45:20,068 --> 00:45:22,469 我会向你展示全部内容 1342 00:45:22,469 --> 00:45:24,889 在泡沫狂欢活动期间 1343 00:45:24,889 --> 00:45:27,460 我会展示我的收入组合 1344 00:45:27,460 --> 00:45:28,780 如何构建它 1345 00:45:28,780 --> 00:45:29,619 再次强调 1346 00:45:29,619 --> 00:45:32,880 如何每年产生这笔被动收入 1347 00:45:32,880 --> 00:45:34,039 你能和我们分享吗 1348 00:45:34,039 --> 00:45:35,179 你的账户规模 1349 00:45:35,179 --> 00:45:36,760 你的投资组合价值是多少 1350 00:45:36,760 --> 00:45:40,650 那么要实现七百万元收益的回报率是多少 1351 00:45:40,650 --> 00:45:41,210 好的 1352 00:45:41,210 --> 00:45:43,289 所以我整个不同的投资组合 1353 00:45:43,289 --> 00:45:44,469 其中包括所有债券 1354 00:45:44,469 --> 00:45:47,099 大约十二万新元 1355 00:45:47,099 --> 00:45:48,300 在十二万新元中 1356 00:45:48,300 --> 00:45:49,219 有些在reed公司 1357 00:45:49,219 --> 00:45:50,099 有些是分红股票 1358 00:45:50,099 --> 00:45:51,090 有些在债券 1359 00:45:51,090 --> 00:45:52,989 还有我的私人信贷 1360 00:45:52,989 --> 00:45:54,269 分红部分 1361 00:45:54,269 --> 00:45:57,298 收益率约9.1% 1362 00:45:57,298 --> 00:45:59,639 我的高收益债券约7% 1363 00:45:59,639 --> 00:46:01,438 我的reed投资约4% 1364 00:46:01,438 --> 00:46:02,210 5% 1365 00:46:02,210 --> 00:46:05,690 如果综合整个投资组合的收益率 1366 00:46:05,690 --> 00:46:07,289 约为6%的收益 1367 00:46:07,289 --> 00:46:09,250 拥有十二万新元的投资组合 1368 00:46:09,250 --> 00:46:10,250 6%的收益率 1369 00:46:10,250 --> 00:46:13,150 年收入约七百万元 1370 00:46:13,150 --> 00:46:13,750 好的 1371 00:46:13,750 --> 00:46:14,289 所以亚当 1372 00:46:14,289 --> 00:46:18,789 非常感谢你今天的到来和分享见解 1373 00:46:18,789 --> 00:46:20,110 以及你的观点 1374 00:46:20,110 --> 00:46:20,349 是的 1375 00:46:20,349 --> 00:46:22,210 很高兴分享我的知识 1376 00:46:22,210 --> 00:46:23,590 你还能告诉我们 1377 00:46:23,590 --> 00:46:26,730 你在juliand bubble会上的演讲内容 1378 00:46:26,730 --> 00:46:27,670 对啊 1379 00:46:27,670 --> 00:46:29,369 我将举办几场网络研讨会 1380 00:46:29,369 --> 00:46:31,690 可以注册参加的直播 1381 00:46:31,690 --> 00:46:34,309 我的第一个主题是价值投资 1382 00:46:34,309 --> 00:46:34,869 趋势投资 1383 00:46:34,869 --> 00:46:36,190 动量投资 1384 00:46:36,190 --> 00:46:36,889 再次 1385 00:46:36,889 --> 00:46:40,710 如何构建我的投资组合应对ai浪潮 1386 00:46:40,710 --> 00:46:42,070 只要它持续 1387 00:46:42,070 --> 00:46:46,900 同时如何布局抗泡沫股票 1388 00:46:46,900 --> 00:46:48,960 抗ai泡沫股票 1389 00:46:48,960 --> 00:46:51,920 当增长放缓市场轮动时 1390 00:46:51,920 --> 00:46:54,739 我的投资组合也会处于有利位置 1391 00:46:54,739 --> 00:46:56,679 这就是第一个网络研讨会 1392 00:46:56,679 --> 00:46:58,579 然后我还会举办另一个关于 1393 00:46:58,579 --> 00:47:00,019 如何交易期权 1394 00:47:00,019 --> 00:47:02,159 我有许多期权策略 1395 00:47:02,159 --> 00:47:04,099 其中一个重点 1396 00:47:04,099 --> 00:47:07,599 是如何使用看涨合成价差策略 1397 00:47:07,599 --> 00:47:11,780 这是一种用不到四分之一资金交易百股的技术 1398 00:47:11,780 --> 00:47:14,880 所需资金不到四分之一 1399 00:47:14,880 --> 00:47:17,300 现在很多人当他们想这样做时 1400 00:47:17,300 --> 00:47:19,079 他们会进行杠杆交易 1401 00:47:19,079 --> 00:47:20,960 我认为这不是个好主意 1402 00:47:20,960 --> 00:47:22,380 因为利率非常高 1403 00:47:22,380 --> 00:47:23,659 利息会吞噬你的资金 1404 00:47:23,659 --> 00:47:24,920 或者他们使用差价合约 1405 00:47:24,920 --> 00:47:26,179 我之前也曾使用过 1406 00:47:26,179 --> 00:47:28,750 但现在利率再次高涨就不太合理了 1407 00:47:28,750 --> 00:47:33,329 有些人通过买入看涨期权来放大收益 1408 00:47:33,329 --> 00:47:35,789 我将解释为何这可能不是最佳方案 1409 00:47:35,789 --> 00:47:37,539 因为当你买入看涨期权时 1410 00:47:37,539 --> 00:47:39,340 时间对你不利 1411 00:47:39,340 --> 00:47:43,869 你会遭受时间损耗且看涨期权成本高昂 1412 00:47:43,869 --> 00:47:45,369 你需要支付高额溢价 1413 00:47:45,369 --> 00:47:47,429 通常你会大部分时间亏损 1414 00:47:47,429 --> 00:47:47,989 好的 1415 00:47:47,989 --> 00:47:53,090 因此使用看涨合成价差策略 1416 00:47:53,090 --> 00:47:55,260 几乎零成本入场 1417 00:47:55,260 --> 00:47:56,719 几乎零成本入场 1418 00:47:56,719 --> 00:48:00,699 但收益亏损与持有百股相同 1419 00:48:00,699 --> 00:48:01,619 我将详细说明 1420 00:48:01,619 --> 00:48:06,369 同时我也讲解我的另一场网络研讨会 1421 00:48:06,369 --> 00:48:09,489 关于如何构建这个投资组合 1422 00:48:09,489 --> 00:48:14,670 债券、股息股和私人信贷产生年化被动收入 1423 00:48:14,670 --> 00:48:15,909 所以当我早上醒来时 1424 00:48:15,909 --> 00:48:16,989 我工作或不工作 1425 00:48:16,989 --> 00:48:18,929 每年都能获得这笔收入 1426 00:48:18,929 --> 00:48:21,980 最后我的网络研讨会通常会讲 1427 00:48:21,980 --> 00:48:25,998 如何规划在接下来的 1428 00:48:25,998 --> 00:48:28,259 五到十年内实现财务自由 1429 00:48:28,259 --> 00:48:32,900 我将展示如何使用财务自由计算器 1430 00:48:32,900 --> 00:48:37,489 如何制定分步稳健计划达成目标 1431 00:48:37,489 --> 00:48:38,989 每个人都能实现 1432 00:48:38,989 --> 00:48:40,989 但你现在必须停止规划 1433 00:48:40,989 --> 00:48:41,409 好的 1434 00:48:41,409 --> 00:48:45,090 对于有兴趣参加免费活动的各位 1435 00:48:45,090 --> 00:48:47,090 并加入亚当的网络研讨会 1436 00:48:47,090 --> 00:48:52,260 请点击描述中的链接我们随后见 保持关注
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