【Morningstar, Inc】晨星：AI时代的3只必买网络安全股！

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嗨

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我是戴夫

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萨卡拉，欢迎收听晨间滤镜播客的特别加更篇

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作为长期听众和观众都知道，我们曾尝试制作过多个不同主题的特别加更节目

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邀请晨星公司的多位专家进行对谈

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讨论大家希望我们深入探讨的各类话题

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如果您有其他加更节目的创意

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请发送至我们的邮箱

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晨间滤镜@晨星

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Com

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晨间滤镜的长期听众们在过去几年中多次听到我提及

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为何我如此青睐投资网络安全行业

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等等

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今天的特别加更节目

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我有幸邀请到

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卡恩 晨星公司的

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资深股票分析师，负责覆盖网络安全行业

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艾哈迈德

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感谢您今日加入我们

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很高兴来到这里

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戴夫

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谢谢现在

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大多数人对网络安全总体概念应该比较熟悉

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将其视为一个广泛领域的概念

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大家肯定都熟悉自己电脑上的杀毒软件和防火墙

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但我也认为网络安全这个术语

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涵盖的内容远超人们普遍认知

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所以我希望

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能否先为我们简要概述一下什么是网络安全

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以及网络安全具体包含哪些内容

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肯定要说明

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当人们想到网络安全时

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他们的直觉是正确的

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存在恶意攻击者

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而防御者则在对抗这些攻击者

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例如杀毒软件

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就是保护电脑免受恶意病毒侵害

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嗯

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当我们从这个基本视角出发

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将同样的理论框架应用到企业层面

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我们会看到三大核心领域

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或三大支出方向

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首先是服务类

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即企业投入

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用于雇佣专业人才

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其次是软件

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这比较

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直观明了

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用于购买安全软件

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还有硬件设备

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这主要是硬件

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防火墙

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网络安全设备

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因此这三个是主要的核心领域

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当我们考虑更广泛的网络安全市场和资金分配时

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所有这些领域都是

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你知道的

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仍在服务于相同的目标

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正如你所知道的

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我们直觉上理解网络安全要做的就是

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呃

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保护你的企业

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你的组织

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你的本地学校医院

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无论是什么从

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呃

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防止恶意行为者获取你的数据

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到你的组织

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现在当我思考网络安全时

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并考虑其中的各种细分领域

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无论是终端身份

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云安全

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网络

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和其他细分领域

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是的

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是否存在某些领域增长速度超过其他领域

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如果有，是什么在推动这种增长

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首先，回到

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你知道的服务

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软件和硬件服务

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软件和硬件的增长并不快

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我们看到的大部分增长实际上来自软件支出

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而软件支出实际上涵盖了你提到的一些细分领域

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因此一些增长最快的领域包括终端

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云身份

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网络安全部分

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这些更侧重软件

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所有这些

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这些各种

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子领域可能显得抽象

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但其实

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它们相当

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它们相当嗯易于

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例如

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终端

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可以视为更先进的防病毒软件

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保护你的终端设备

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即计算机

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或平板电脑或设备身份

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显然就是保护

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你

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可以把它想象成一个差评

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当你进入办公楼验证身份时

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嗯但你要回答你的问题

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基于软件的网络安全领域实际上已超越硬件和服务

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嗯各细分领域，我们预计这一趋势将持续

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好的

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现在我在思考网络安全

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而且

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当然你知道这至关重要

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你知道的

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任何组织

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无论是企业还是公共部门

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我只是好奇

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你知道在哪些方面

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比如

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过去几年的根本性趋势

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你的预期是什么

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你对未来几年这些趋势的看法

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首先

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一旦像

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你知道的

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显然疫情发生后

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我认为这是转折点

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无论是攻击强度还是频率

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FBI实际收集了这些数据

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你可以回溯

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早至2000年代初

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可以看到网络犯罪

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可以看到明显的拐点

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在新冠疫情期间

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当人们

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基本上所有人都在线

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但安全防护措施未及时调整

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现在我们正经历由AI引发的进一步转折

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你肯定收到了

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我也收到这类邮件

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看起来不再可疑

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但仍为钓鱼邮件

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邮件

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等等

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这些都是AI生成的

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甚至可以在手机上完成

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这已成为关键趋势之一

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我们在网络安全领域观察到

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网络攻击频率和强度持续上升

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第二个

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需注意的是每次数据泄露的损失金额实际增加

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Ponemon研究所做了这项研究

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你知道的

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收集这些数据

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他们关注的是

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网络攻击成本在一段时间内的纵向变化

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并且这一趋势仍在持续上升

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这意味着如果你是一家公司

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现在你面临被攻击的声誉风险

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但你也承担实际的财务风险

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也就是说你会

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你将面临一阶和二阶的财务影响

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此次攻击带来的财务影响

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所以这些

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这些都是持续推动网络安全重要性的关键因素

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这对组织来说至关重要

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现在我想在播客结尾给出一些个股推荐

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但在那之前

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先谈谈网络安全行业

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总体而言

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你认为

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你知道的

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能否简要概括一下整体投资逻辑

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总体而言

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就如

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你看到这些趋势未来的发展方向

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没错

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首先，我们在网络安全领域的整体观点是

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并且

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当我们在讨论个股推荐时会更明显

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核心观点是行业整合

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目前网络安全市场高度分散

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我们预计未来将逐步整合

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将出现大型厂商扩大市场份额和主导地位

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并构建多模块化平台

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覆盖多个终端市场以获取市场份额

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嗯

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在分析增长轮廓时

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存在某些驱动因素

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数字化程度提升

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这显然因新冠进一步加速

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显然在缺乏增长时

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人工智能

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合规相关

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驱动因素

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例如

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比如

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监管法规增加

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欧盟新规迫使企业增加网络安全投入

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嗯

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所以

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我意思是

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从结构上看，该行业正处于强劲增长期

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因为像

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你知道的

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由于世俗的顺风

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无论是像这些事情

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比如像你增加数字化

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或者转向云服务

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呃

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或者一些我提到的合规相关因素

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你知道的

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你稍微提到了人工智能及其长期影响

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而我观察到

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你知道的

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整个市场尤其是软件领域

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在过去一年里这些软件股真的承受了巨大压力

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甚至更久

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你知道有些股票下跌了20%到30%

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你知道甚至40%

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仅仅因为许多投资者担心人工智能可能颠覆

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或在某些情况下完全取代

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这些软件公司的业务和产品

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作为投资者

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你知道该如何建议

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应该如何区分投资这些软件

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即服务类股票与网络安全股票

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但首先

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必须理解网络安全并非纯软件

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正如我提到的服务和硬件

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这些并非真正

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你知道是否受影响

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并不明确

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你知道它们并非软件驱动

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本质上

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其次我要强调

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尤其是在思考AI对网络安全的影响时

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并与软件进行对比

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关键区别在于存在对抗性动态

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在思考AI与网络安全时

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一个典型例子是

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假设大型语言模型使威胁检测效率提升五倍

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00:09:42,539 --> 00:09:48,460
这意味着攻击者也能使用同一模型

241
00:09:48,460 --> 00:09:52,600
更快或五倍效率地发现漏洞

242
00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:54,559
你知道在更高效的方式下

243
00:09:54,559 --> 00:09:55,399
所以我想说

244
00:09:55,399 --> 00:09:56,360
我试图表达的是

245
00:09:56,360 --> 00:10:01,480
由于AI同时被攻击者和防御者使用

246
00:10:01,480 --> 00:10:08,029
实际上意味着整体网络安全支出必须提升

247
00:10:08,029 --> 00:10:10,830
这不是其他软件领域的动态

248
00:10:10,830 --> 00:10:11,110
没错

249
00:10:11,110 --> 00:10:13,090
这是网络安全的独特之处

250
00:10:13,090 --> 00:10:17,919
第二点是AI正在创造全新市场

251
00:10:17,919 --> 00:10:20,879
所以你知道AI运行时安全

252
00:10:21,240 --> 00:10:23,799
比如实际AI应用场景的安全保障

253
00:10:23,799 --> 00:10:27,490
或者实际AI部署的安全

254
00:10:27,490 --> 00:10:30,830
数据中心将出现新的防火墙支出

255
00:10:30,830 --> 00:10:33,990
因此网络安全领域将有大量新增支出

256
00:10:33,990 --> 00:10:36,859
我们覆盖的公司都将从中受益

257
00:10:36,859 --> 00:10:42,298
这在更广泛的软件领域可能更难明确判断

258
00:10:42,298 --> 00:10:44,629
这里更多面临下行压力

259
00:10:44,629 --> 00:10:49,509
但当我们专门讨论网络安全时并非如此

260
00:10:49,789 --> 00:10:50,230
是的

261
00:10:50,230 --> 00:10:51,769
至于人工智能

262
00:10:51,769 --> 00:10:52,230
你知道的

263
00:10:52,230 --> 00:10:56,470
作为关注网络安全领域的投资者

264
00:10:56,470 --> 00:10:56,909
你知道的

265
00:10:56,909 --> 00:10:59,970
或许在接下来的十二到十八个月

266
00:10:59,970 --> 00:11:00,350
你知道的

267
00:11:00,350 --> 00:11:01,328
两到四个月

268
00:11:01,328 --> 00:11:01,649
你知道的

269
00:11:01,649 --> 00:11:03,328
有没有在关注某些事情

270
00:11:03,328 --> 00:11:06,940
你认为它们会朝某个方向发展

271
00:11:06,940 --> 00:11:08,100
如果是这样的话

272
00:11:08,100 --> 00:11:10,980
你认为哪些网络安全公司

273
00:11:10,980 --> 00:11:12,639
将更具备优势

274
00:11:12,639 --> 00:11:14,480
来应对这些 evolving 需求

275
00:11:14,480 --> 00:11:17,610
在中期内肯定如此

276
00:11:17,610 --> 00:11:17,970
不

277
00:11:17,970 --> 00:11:18,370
所以大卫

278
00:11:18,370 --> 00:11:18,730
嗯

279
00:11:18,730 --> 00:11:21,769
我们有一个AI质量评估体系

280
00:11:21,769 --> 00:11:27,210
用于评估网络安全公司在多个与AI相关的因素上

281
00:11:27,210 --> 00:11:27,610
AI

282
00:11:27,610 --> 00:11:29,730
产品变现能力

283
00:11:30,850 --> 00:11:32,899
企业客户数量

284
00:11:32,899 --> 00:11:33,240
该

285
00:11:33,240 --> 00:11:37,659
公司实际聚合的数据类型和丰富程度

286
00:11:37,659 --> 00:11:39,629
并在其AI模型上运行

287
00:11:39,629 --> 00:11:41,330
包含多个不同因素

288
00:11:41,330 --> 00:11:45,460
以及类似的AI质量评估体系

289
00:11:45,460 --> 00:11:47,940
当我们将其应用于覆盖范围

290
00:11:47,940 --> 00:11:48,620
啊

291
00:11:48,620 --> 00:11:49,539
大型企业

292
00:11:49,539 --> 00:11:50,679
例如CrowdStrike

293
00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:51,460
Apollo

294
00:11:51,460 --> 00:11:53,980
Fortinet和ZScaler

295
00:11:53,980 --> 00:11:55,610
或将脱颖而出

296
00:11:55,610 --> 00:11:57,269
嗯，我认为这就是

297
00:11:57,269 --> 00:11:59,919
这就是我们看到的叙事

298
00:11:59,919 --> 00:12:01,360
在AI领域

299
00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:02,960
正如我之前提到的

300
00:12:02,960 --> 00:12:04,919
我们已观察到Bender的整合

301
00:12:04,919 --> 00:12:07,080
人们希望用更少的钱花更多

302
00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:09,779
我们认为人工智能将到来并加速这一动态

303
00:12:09,779 --> 00:12:12,029
所以如果你是阿波罗

304
00:12:12,029 --> 00:12:15,230
历史上你们一直通过收购进入市场

305
00:12:15,230 --> 00:12:17,059
你知道特定模块

306
00:12:17,059 --> 00:12:17,539
嗯

307
00:12:17,539 --> 00:12:20,870
现在人工智能实际上提升了产品开发速度

308
00:12:20,870 --> 00:12:22,889
因此你可以看到一个产品

309
00:12:22,889 --> 00:12:23,509
然后说

310
00:12:23,509 --> 00:12:25,850
这可能是竞争对手的好产品

311
00:12:25,850 --> 00:12:27,849
你可以自行开发这个产品

312
00:12:27,849 --> 00:12:31,649
以远快于以往的速度完成

313
00:12:31,649 --> 00:12:37,299
从而更快获取市场份额

314
00:12:37,299 --> 00:12:40,159
说到人工智能本身

315
00:12:40,159 --> 00:12:42,980
我们预计会出现两极分化

316
00:12:42,980 --> 00:12:45,019
这里将呈现两座城市的故事

317
00:12:45,019 --> 00:12:48,039
其中一个城市将是平台供应商

318
00:12:48,039 --> 00:12:48,799
这将是

319
00:12:48,799 --> 00:12:49,379
你知道的

320
00:12:49,379 --> 00:12:50,600
人工智能的受益者

321
00:12:50,600 --> 00:12:52,440
但在我们的覆盖范围内

322
00:12:52,440 --> 00:12:53,059
嗯

323
00:12:53,059 --> 00:12:55,899
我们有认为会落后的公司

324
00:12:55,899 --> 00:12:58,279
或可能失去市场份额的公司

325
00:12:58,279 --> 00:12:59,679
这些是中小玩家

326
00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:01,490
比如Rapid7、Tenable

327
00:13:01,490 --> 00:13:02,009
呃

328
00:13:02,009 --> 00:13:02,669
呃

329
00:13:02,669 --> 00:13:03,889
等等

330
00:13:04,159 --> 00:13:06,639
这也引出了我们下一个话题

331
00:13:06,639 --> 00:13:07,279
你知道的

332
00:13:07,279 --> 00:13:08,860
当我思考投资时

333
00:13:08,860 --> 00:13:11,759
以及晨星如何评估价值股

334
00:13:11,759 --> 00:13:12,200
你知道的

335
00:13:12,200 --> 00:13:14,059
我心中的关键区别在于

336
00:13:14,059 --> 00:13:18,740
明确将护城河概念纳入估值

337
00:13:18,740 --> 00:13:20,539
将护城河概念融入我们的估值体系

338
00:13:20,539 --> 00:13:21,940
思考拥有

339
00:13:21,940 --> 00:13:22,259
你知道的

340
00:13:22,259 --> 00:13:23,200
长期持久

341
00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:24,779
竞争优势的公司

342
00:13:24,779 --> 00:13:29,820
以及这如何帮助公司长期实现资本回报率超过加权

343
00:13:29,820 --> 00:13:30,059
平均

344
00:13:30,059 --> 00:13:32,379
资本成本

345
00:13:32,379 --> 00:13:33,259
所以我希望

346
00:13:33,259 --> 00:13:37,429
或许可以就此向我们解释

347
00:13:37,429 --> 00:13:40,289
甚至用几个不同案例

348
00:13:40,289 --> 00:13:41,029
正如你所知

349
00:13:41,029 --> 00:13:41,950
具体例子

350
00:13:41,950 --> 00:13:42,830
但你知道

351
00:13:42,830 --> 00:13:46,909
要挖掘这里的经济护城河，真正需要哪些属性？

352
00:13:46,909 --> 00:13:48,549
在网络安全行业

353
00:13:48,549 --> 00:13:49,909
并且在任何你能提供给我们

354
00:13:49,909 --> 00:13:50,149
你知道的

355
00:13:50,149 --> 00:13:54,070
如果能提供一些具体例子就太好了

356
00:13:54,070 --> 00:13:58,220
因此在我们的网络安全覆盖范围内，当我们看到经济护城河时

357
00:13:58,220 --> 00:14:00,799
主要的护城河来源是转换成本

358
00:14:00,799 --> 00:14:01,919
也就是说

359
00:14:01,919 --> 00:14:05,440
客户实际需要承担的有形或无形成本

360
00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:07,299
如果他们想要更换供应商

361
00:14:07,299 --> 00:14:09,970
必须承担的成本

362
00:14:09,970 --> 00:14:12,830
转换成本的明确证据

363
00:14:12,830 --> 00:14:15,110
顺便说一句，这可以在留存率中找到

364
00:14:15,110 --> 00:14:18,090
所以很多网络安全公司和软件公司

365
00:14:18,090 --> 00:14:20,600
会提供留存率数据

366
00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:22,320
这可以是基于美元的留存率

367
00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:25,299
或基于客户的留存率，仅说明他们保留了多少客户

368
00:14:25,299 --> 00:14:27,950
或客户每年花费的金额

369
00:14:27,950 --> 00:14:31,909
我们在分析时关注的是客户每年保留的金额

370
00:14:31,909 --> 00:14:36,379
光纤模块公司通常留存率

371
00:14:36,379 --> 00:14:38,899
平均约为95%左右

372
00:14:38,899 --> 00:14:42,568
这暗示客户生命周期约为20年

373
00:14:42,568 --> 00:14:43,928
远超

374
00:14:43,928 --> 00:14:44,129
你知道的

375
00:14:44,129 --> 00:14:45,249
我们考虑的十年期限

376
00:14:45,249 --> 00:14:46,568
当我们讨论经济护城河时

377
00:14:46,568 --> 00:14:48,759
我们考虑公司是否

378
00:14:48,759 --> 00:14:53,068
更可能在十年到二十年内维持竞争优势

379
00:14:53,073 --> 00:14:54,849
时间范围

380
00:14:54,849 --> 00:14:58,489
显然留存率已通过这一检验

381
00:14:58,489 --> 00:15:01,379
并充分展示了转换成本

382
00:15:01,379 --> 00:15:03,379
这在网络安全领域尤为明显

383
00:15:03,379 --> 00:15:04,500
我的意思是

384
00:15:04,500 --> 00:15:04,980
如果你是

385
00:15:04,980 --> 00:15:05,299
如果你是

386
00:15:05,299 --> 00:15:06,659
如果你是技术采购方

387
00:15:06,659 --> 00:15:10,299
购买网络安全是为了消除不确定性

388
00:15:11,200 --> 00:15:13,679
而如果想要更换网络安全供应商

389
00:15:13,679 --> 00:15:15,639
实际上是在重新引入不确定性

390
00:15:15,639 --> 00:15:17,159
将其重新放回桌面上

391
00:15:17,159 --> 00:15:18,220
所以这并不

392
00:15:18,220 --> 00:15:20,419
这并非像

393
00:15:21,070 --> 00:15:21,590
我的意思是

394
00:15:21,590 --> 00:15:23,789
根据我们与实际运营者的对话

395
00:15:23,789 --> 00:15:28,159
实际上很难通过优惠来更换运行良好的

396
00:15:28,159 --> 00:15:31,080
功能正常的网络安全系统或平台

397
00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:32,379
并进行更换

398
00:15:32,379 --> 00:15:35,570
即使对方提供10%、20%或30%的折扣

399
00:15:35,570 --> 00:15:36,250
嗯

400
00:15:36,250 --> 00:15:37,570
这就是第一条

401
00:15:37,570 --> 00:15:38,169
嗯

402
00:15:38,169 --> 00:15:40,389
第二个是网络效应

403
00:15:40,389 --> 00:15:41,730
所以并非所有

404
00:15:41,730 --> 00:15:44,470
所有网络安全模式都有转换成本

405
00:15:44,470 --> 00:15:47,009
并非所有网络安全模式都有网络效应

406
00:15:47,009 --> 00:15:50,860
网络效应主要源于其丰富性

407
00:15:50,860 --> 00:15:55,559
以及公司从不同客户处聚合的数据质量

408
00:15:55,559 --> 00:16:00,200
以及如何将数据转化为提升安全效果

409
00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:03,950
我们覆盖范围内最清晰的例子是CrowdStrike

410
00:16:03,950 --> 00:16:04,769
所以如果你

411
00:16:04,769 --> 00:16:05,269
例如

412
00:16:05,269 --> 00:16:06,549
是CrowdStrike客户

413
00:16:06,549 --> 00:16:10,370
你会在笔记本上安装CrowdStrike的代理程序

414
00:16:10,370 --> 00:16:13,929
对的，假设你的笔记本被入侵

415
00:16:13,929 --> 00:16:16,220
或者存在针对笔记本的攻击

416
00:16:16,220 --> 00:16:18,440
CrowdStrike能够检测到这次攻击

417
00:16:18,440 --> 00:16:20,360
 hopefully在笔记本上阻止了它

418
00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:21,379
但与此同时

419
00:16:21,379 --> 00:16:28,278
会同时更新所有连接到CrowdStrike的笔记本

420
00:16:28,278 --> 00:16:32,078
以确保它们不会遭受相同攻击

421
00:16:32,078 --> 00:16:37,100
类似于在攻击中使用的漏洞向量

422
00:16:37,100 --> 00:16:42,000
你知道针对你笔记本的那次黑客攻击

423
00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:42,578
对的

424
00:16:42,578 --> 00:16:44,759
这种网络效应

425
00:16:44,759 --> 00:16:46,418
嗯

426
00:16:46,418 --> 00:16:53,299
增加更多客户实际上能提升现有客户的安全效果

427
00:16:53,299 --> 00:16:55,600
CrowdStrike平台的网络效应非常强大

428
00:16:55,600 --> 00:16:58,740
我们在其他案例中也能看到这一点

429
00:16:58,740 --> 00:17:02,169
比如Scalar、Cloudflare和Paulo

430
00:17:02,169 --> 00:17:04,130
这些地方也存在网络效应

431
00:17:04,130 --> 00:17:05,900
故事非常相似

432
00:17:05,900 --> 00:17:08,420
更多数据意味着更好解决方案

433
00:17:08,420 --> 00:17:10,559
更好解决方案吸引更多客户

434
00:17:10,559 --> 00:17:12,400
更多客户带来更多数据

435
00:17:12,400 --> 00:17:15,210
形成这种良性循环或恶性循环

436
00:17:15,210 --> 00:17:16,230
啊

437
00:17:16,230 --> 00:17:18,009
持续下去

438
00:17:18,250 --> 00:17:19,009
要成为

439
00:17:19,009 --> 00:17:19,450
你知道的

440
00:17:19,450 --> 00:17:20,150
出于好奇

441
00:17:20,150 --> 00:17:22,269
思考网络效应的影响

442
00:17:22,269 --> 00:17:23,388
及其作用

443
00:17:23,388 --> 00:17:24,749
这也是原因之一

444
00:17:24,749 --> 00:17:28,880
为何预期该领域会进一步集中

445
00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:29,700
是的

446
00:17:29,700 --> 00:17:30,099
是的

447
00:17:30,099 --> 00:17:30,480
是的

448
00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:30,880
因为就像

449
00:17:30,880 --> 00:17:31,400
我再说一遍

450
00:17:31,400 --> 00:17:31,599
没错

451
00:17:31,599 --> 00:17:32,599
比如你是一个CrowdStrike用户

452
00:17:32,599 --> 00:17:36,839
他们每天处理的海量信号轴线

453
00:17:36,839 --> 00:17:38,279
他们正在监控的内容

454
00:17:38,279 --> 00:17:39,359
然后你拿这些数据

455
00:17:39,359 --> 00:17:40,759
再与新兴企业对比

456
00:17:40,759 --> 00:17:43,099
可能只有其中百分比

457
00:17:43,099 --> 00:17:44,099
仅有其中一小部分

458
00:17:44,099 --> 00:17:46,679
这就是 incumbents 的优势

459
00:17:46,679 --> 00:17:48,979
然后他们可以在此基础上构建优势

460
00:17:48,979 --> 00:17:49,878
利用人工智能

461
00:17:49,878 --> 00:17:56,730
我们明显看到平台供应商与其他企业的差距在扩大

462
00:17:56,730 --> 00:17:57,900
好的

463
00:17:57,900 --> 00:17:58,380
嗯

464
00:17:58,380 --> 00:18:00,900
现在让我们回到估值讨论

465
00:18:00,900 --> 00:18:02,519
现在稍微深入一点

466
00:18:02,519 --> 00:18:04,880
当我思考股票价值时

467
00:18:04,880 --> 00:18:09,299
当然要计算公司未来自由现金流的现值

468
00:18:09,299 --> 00:18:10,660
因此进行估值时

469
00:18:10,660 --> 00:18:14,589
我们使用标准化的现金流折现模型

470
00:18:14,589 --> 00:18:16,309
当我考虑这个模型时

471
00:18:16,309 --> 00:18:19,069
可以查看下一季度的指引

472
00:18:19,069 --> 00:18:20,490
甚至下一年的预测

473
00:18:20,490 --> 00:18:21,700
对于某些公司

474
00:18:21,700 --> 00:18:24,339
但我在考虑长期预测

475
00:18:24,339 --> 00:18:26,220
比如第三年预测

476
00:18:26,220 --> 00:18:27,299
第四年和第五年

477
00:18:27,299 --> 00:18:29,009
甚至更久

478
00:18:29,009 --> 00:18:29,650
我很好奇

479
00:18:29,650 --> 00:18:30,609
能否带我们分析

480
00:18:30,609 --> 00:18:32,309
你的思路是怎样的

481
00:18:32,309 --> 00:18:35,039
如何做出这类长期预测

482
00:18:35,039 --> 00:18:40,099
并将这些纳入估值模型

483
00:18:40,099 --> 00:18:46,808
所以我喜欢结合自上而下和自下而上的方法

484
00:18:46,808 --> 00:18:48,500
以及自下而上的方法

485
00:18:48,500 --> 00:18:53,420
自上而下方法主要是分析网络安全领域的关键支出类别

486
00:18:53,420 --> 00:18:55,130
在网络安全领域

487
00:18:55,130 --> 00:18:59,190
观察哪些支出领域正在增长

488
00:18:59,190 --> 00:19:01,009
对于这些支出细分市场

489
00:19:01,009 --> 00:19:03,539
这些就是我们讨论的重点

490
00:19:03,539 --> 00:19:05,319
在讨论开头提到的

491
00:19:05,319 --> 00:19:06,920
云端点安全

492
00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:08,319
我们看到哪些增长

493
00:19:08,319 --> 00:19:12,880
同时还要考虑哪些厂商会受益

494
00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:14,309
例如讨论端点安全时

495
00:19:14,309 --> 00:19:16,569
认为CrowdStrike将扩大市场份额

496
00:19:16,569 --> 00:19:18,390
这说明

497
00:19:18,390 --> 00:19:20,159
CrowdStrike 应该超越整体端点市场增速

498
00:19:20,159 --> 00:19:22,679
因此端点市场整体增速

499
00:19:22,679 --> 00:19:26,849
这能反映CrowdStrike的增长潜力

500
00:19:26,849 --> 00:19:28,910
这就是自上而下的分析

501
00:19:28,910 --> 00:19:30,489
现在干杯

502
00:19:30,489 --> 00:19:32,388
然后你大概看看

503
00:19:32,388 --> 00:19:32,868
呃

504
00:19:32,868 --> 00:19:33,308
呃

505
00:19:33,308 --> 00:19:35,229
你知道你要评估市场规模

506
00:19:35,229 --> 00:19:35,888
呃

507
00:19:35,888 --> 00:19:36,169
呃

508
00:19:36,169 --> 00:19:36,909
你在观察

509
00:19:36,909 --> 00:19:37,328
你知道的

510
00:19:37,328 --> 00:19:39,299
平均销售价格或ASP

511
00:19:39,299 --> 00:19:41,519
客户数量的数量

512
00:19:41,519 --> 00:19:43,019
每位客户的平均收入

513
00:19:43,019 --> 00:19:44,819
我们如何认为这会起作用

514
00:19:44,819 --> 00:19:45,769
嗯

515
00:19:45,769 --> 00:19:47,109
所以这里有

516
00:19:47,109 --> 00:19:49,329
两者都有这种情况发生

517
00:19:49,329 --> 00:19:51,009
尤其是当你完全正确时

518
00:19:51,009 --> 00:19:53,470
比如你知道季度可见性很好

519
00:19:53,470 --> 00:19:56,109
可以说年度可见性也很不错

520
00:19:56,109 --> 00:19:58,980
但到了第三年及以后

521
00:19:58,980 --> 00:20:00,460
变得更具挑战性

522
00:20:00,460 --> 00:20:04,680
我要说的是，每当我们的市场预测显示

523
00:20:04,680 --> 00:20:05,720
你知道整体市场情况

524
00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:06,559
对吧

525
00:20:06,559 --> 00:20:08,519
回到自上而下的方法

526
00:20:08,519 --> 00:20:11,640
你会发现，如果我们2019年的预测

527
00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:12,539
并进行比较

528
00:20:12,539 --> 00:20:13,740
与2024年对比

529
00:20:13,740 --> 00:20:15,559
2024年或2020年

530
00:20:15,559 --> 00:20:16,710
与2025年

531
00:20:16,710 --> 00:20:17,890
存在巨大差距

532
00:20:17,890 --> 00:20:22,230
我们总是低估网络安全市场规模

533
00:20:22,230 --> 00:20:25,369
这并非因为我们做得不好

534
00:20:25,369 --> 00:20:27,210
或分析师们表现不佳

535
00:20:27,210 --> 00:20:28,638
引用整体领域

536
00:20:28,638 --> 00:20:29,719
这是结构性原因

537
00:20:29,719 --> 00:20:33,358
因为新的网络安全支出领域不断出现

538
00:20:33,358 --> 00:20:36,339
如果有人在2019年告诉你

539
00:20:36,339 --> 00:20:41,679
哦云安全将成为数十亿美元的细分市场

540
00:20:41,679 --> 00:20:42,638
你会觉得

541
00:20:42,638 --> 00:20:43,159
哦好吧

542
00:20:43,159 --> 00:20:43,759
可能

543
00:20:43,759 --> 00:20:45,239
但大概不会

544
00:20:45,239 --> 00:20:47,878
因为该领域需要五年内以90%的增速增长

545
00:20:47,878 --> 00:20:49,199
CAGR

546
00:20:49,199 --> 00:20:50,679
没人会这样预测

547
00:20:50,679 --> 00:20:51,499
但确实发生了

548
00:20:51,499 --> 00:20:52,959
现在我们看到类似情况在

549
00:20:52,959 --> 00:20:55,439
AI领域大量新支出

550
00:20:55,439 --> 00:20:56,858
AI安全支出

551
00:20:56,858 --> 00:20:59,849
如果我们想想我们的预测

552
00:21:00,089 --> 00:21:01,569
五年后

553
00:21:01,569 --> 00:21:07,049
我们必须为现在看不到的支出建立一些可选价值

554
00:21:07,769 --> 00:21:11,529
这使我们的工作更加有趣且更具挑战性

555
00:21:11,970 --> 00:21:12,970
但呃

556
00:21:12,970 --> 00:21:13,470
但确实

557
00:21:13,470 --> 00:21:15,410
只是想给你一些关于我们

558
00:21:15,410 --> 00:21:18,269
对这些公司增长的思考视角

559
00:21:18,269 --> 00:21:18,750
是的

560
00:21:18,750 --> 00:21:19,430
在某种程度上

561
00:21:19,430 --> 00:21:22,710
我认为这也将在我们的不确定性评级中体现

562
00:21:22,710 --> 00:21:25,640
我们在尝试构建这种变量范围模型

563
00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:27,859
但听起来你好像在说

564
00:21:27,859 --> 00:21:29,779
如果我要考虑这里的风险

565
00:21:29,779 --> 00:21:32,140
可能更偏向于上行风险

566
00:21:32,140 --> 00:21:33,559
这实际上会是

567
00:21:33,559 --> 00:21:34,079
你知道的

568
00:21:34,079 --> 00:21:40,210
长期来看支出规模更大且超出我们当前认知

569
00:21:40,569 --> 00:21:41,069
是的

570
00:21:41,069 --> 00:21:41,930
当然

571
00:21:41,930 --> 00:21:42,809
是的

572
00:21:42,809 --> 00:21:44,849
现在我想反过来问

573
00:21:44,849 --> 00:21:47,069
我收到很多观众的问题

574
00:21:47,069 --> 00:21:49,339
关于网络安全行业

575
00:21:49,339 --> 00:21:51,359
最常被问到的问题大概

576
00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:51,779
你知道的

577
00:21:51,779 --> 00:21:55,880
我们覆盖公司的关键区别是什么

578
00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:57,000
比如考虑

579
00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:58,119
四大巨头

580
00:21:58,119 --> 00:21:59,900
如果你能带我分析

581
00:21:59,900 --> 00:22:02,279
你认为这些关键区别是什么

582
00:22:02,279 --> 00:22:03,319
然后是否有

583
00:22:03,319 --> 00:22:06,319
一些小公司也值得关注

584
00:22:06,319 --> 00:22:07,319
当然

585
00:22:07,319 --> 00:22:08,119
再次强调

586
00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:08,960
正如我所说

587
00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:11,160
我们设想的网络安全格局是

588
00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:15,549
大公司会更强更大，小厂商会被挤压

589
00:22:15,549 --> 00:22:19,289
我所说的大型厂商包括Apollo

590
00:22:19,289 --> 00:22:23,099
CrowdStrike、Fortinet和Zscaler

591
00:22:23,099 --> 00:22:25,140
这些公司

592
00:22:25,140 --> 00:22:25,880
其区别在于

593
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:26,480
这些公司

594
00:22:26,480 --> 00:22:26,819
关键在于

595
00:22:26,819 --> 00:22:33,250
这些公司已认识到我们处于五年前不同的现实

596
00:22:33,250 --> 00:22:37,589
现在企业更倾向于从更少供应商处采购

597
00:22:37,589 --> 00:22:41,029
这意味着你可以提供

598
00:22:41,029 --> 00:22:42,750
如果能提供多领域解决方案

599
00:22:42,750 --> 00:22:46,798
可以直接推出这些方案并

600
00:22:46,798 --> 00:22:47,278
嗯

601
00:22:47,278 --> 00:22:49,038
能够获得市场认可

602
00:22:49,038 --> 00:22:51,439
在多个市场实现客户增长

603
00:22:51,439 --> 00:22:53,220
这就是我们观察到的情况

604
00:22:53,220 --> 00:22:54,019
Crowd strike

605
00:22:54,019 --> 00:22:54,859
前往阿波罗

606
00:22:54,859 --> 00:22:55,920
处理Fornz

607
00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:59,039
Skater也在向这个方向发展

608
00:22:59,039 --> 00:22:59,819
嗯

609
00:22:59,819 --> 00:23:04,720
另一方面，有些供应商仍被困在

610
00:23:05,619 --> 00:23:06,579
细分市场

611
00:23:06,579 --> 00:23:08,579
甚至单一市场

612
00:23:08,579 --> 00:23:11,710
我们认为这些供应商将面临困境

613
00:23:11,710 --> 00:23:14,190
嗯，显然我们覆盖过其中一些

614
00:23:14,190 --> 00:23:15,349
但换个角度想

615
00:23:15,349 --> 00:23:18,960
从整个网络安全行业格局来看

616
00:23:18,960 --> 00:23:20,690
非常像一支曲棍球杆

617
00:23:20,690 --> 00:23:22,769
前端有一些大型供应商

618
00:23:22,769 --> 00:23:23,829
在曲棍球杆前端

619
00:23:23,829 --> 00:23:27,519
然后是大量中小型供应商

620
00:23:27,519 --> 00:23:29,548
大多数为私有企业

621
00:23:29,548 --> 00:23:31,648
专注于单一模块

622
00:23:31,648 --> 00:23:32,888
在一个平台内

623
00:23:32,888 --> 00:23:35,189
随着时间推移

624
00:23:35,189 --> 00:23:39,710
这些供应商将面临挤压

625
00:23:39,710 --> 00:23:41,789
这正好引出下一个部分

626
00:23:41,789 --> 00:23:43,970
大家最期待的环节

627
00:23:43,970 --> 00:23:45,140
那就是

628
00:23:45,140 --> 00:23:46,819
逐一介绍我们的个股推荐

629
00:23:46,819 --> 00:23:48,480
你已经选了三只个股

630
00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:51,440
每只都具备经济护城河

631
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:53,740
第一只推荐是Paulo Alto

632
00:23:53,740 --> 00:23:56,619
我想请你详细阐述

633
00:23:56,619 --> 00:23:58,359
投资逻辑是什么

634
00:23:58,359 --> 00:23:59,640
你的展望如何

635
00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:01,019
以及该股票当前位置

636
00:24:01,019 --> 00:24:03,750
与我们的公允价值对比

637
00:24:03,750 --> 00:24:04,630
当然

638
00:24:04,630 --> 00:24:05,150
所以

639
00:24:05,150 --> 00:24:09,888
该股仍有超过30%的上涨空间

640
00:24:09,888 --> 00:24:10,588
嗯

641
00:24:10,588 --> 00:24:13,709
我们的公允价值是225美元

642
00:24:13,709 --> 00:24:15,689
关键投资逻辑在于Paulo

643
00:24:15,689 --> 00:24:17,490
若投资Paulo

644
00:24:17,490 --> 00:24:22,289
即是在押注供应商整合趋势

645
00:24:22,289 --> 00:24:26,029
若认同供应商整合逻辑，即大者恒强

646
00:24:26,029 --> 00:24:29,609
Paulo将在多个终端市场扩大份额

647
00:24:29,609 --> 00:24:32,170
无论是身份安全运营

648
00:24:32,170 --> 00:24:33,609
云服务等

649
00:24:34,650 --> 00:24:38,369
我认为Paulo是投资网络安全的最佳选择

650
00:24:38,369 --> 00:24:40,250
或布局网络安全领域

651
00:24:40,250 --> 00:24:43,650
显然，该公司在这些终端市场看到了进展

652
00:24:43,650 --> 00:24:44,450
所以我们不是

653
00:24:44,450 --> 00:24:45,549
并不是像

654
00:24:45,549 --> 00:24:46,309
啊啊

655
00:24:46,309 --> 00:24:46,750
你知道的

656
00:24:46,750 --> 00:24:46,950
我们是

657
00:24:46,950 --> 00:24:49,190
我们在猜测我们看不到的东西

658
00:24:49,190 --> 00:24:52,200
目前的数据点和趋势

659
00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:52,759
呃

660
00:24:52,759 --> 00:24:53,819
我们认为再次

661
00:24:53,819 --> 00:24:54,740
谈到

662
00:24:54,740 --> 00:24:55,200
呃

663
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:56,839
我们对保罗的投资逻辑

664
00:24:56,839 --> 00:24:58,990
我们认为AI将属于我们

665
00:24:58,990 --> 00:25:01,430
对网络安全的大体利好

666
00:25:01,430 --> 00:25:07,109
但只有具备规模优势的企业才能真正受益于AI

667
00:25:07,109 --> 00:25:07,869
并且拥有

668
00:25:07,869 --> 00:25:10,009
你知道的工程人才

669
00:25:10,009 --> 00:25:12,549
数据等资源才能真正实现

670
00:25:12,549 --> 00:25:14,109
将这些产品推向市场

671
00:25:15,109 --> 00:25:16,890
我们已经看到了这一点啊

672
00:25:16,890 --> 00:25:20,670
已进入Apollo的年度持续营收

673
00:25:20,670 --> 00:25:22,190
啊啊啊

674
00:25:22,190 --> 00:25:23,029
所以所以所以

675
00:25:23,029 --> 00:25:23,190
我们是

676
00:25:23,190 --> 00:25:26,388
我们对未来充满期待

677
00:25:26,388 --> 00:25:26,788
Apollo

678
00:25:26,788 --> 00:25:29,608
我们认为目前市场

679
00:25:29,608 --> 00:25:34,710
呃暂时对公司收购Cyber Arc一事有所担忧

680
00:25:34,710 --> 00:25:37,049
这大约是200亿美元

681
00:25:37,049 --> 00:25:38,219
这就是重大投入

682
00:25:38,219 --> 00:25:41,519
投资者担心执行风险

683
00:25:41,519 --> 00:25:43,359
关于Cyber Arc部分

684
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:46,359
我们认为公司过往

685
00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:46,960
你知道的

686
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:47,779
继续前进

687
00:25:47,779 --> 00:25:54,349
收购企业并成功整合到业务中的能力非常扎实

688
00:25:54,349 --> 00:25:54,990
嗯

689
00:25:54,990 --> 00:25:55,470
他们

690
00:25:55,470 --> 00:25:58,450
过去七到八年完成了十余次收购

691
00:25:58,450 --> 00:25:59,259
八年时间

692
00:25:59,259 --> 00:26:02,559
投入数十亿美元且

693
00:26:02,559 --> 00:26:04,819
资本配置能力非常出色

694
00:26:04,819 --> 00:26:07,240
我们认为他们能够

695
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:08,059
嗯

696
00:26:08,059 --> 00:26:11,519
顺利推进Cyber收购及身份平台业务

697
00:26:11,519 --> 00:26:12,200
嗯

698
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:12,579
嗯

699
00:26:12,579 --> 00:26:12,940
嗯

700
00:26:12,940 --> 00:26:15,569
结果会很好，出于好奇

701
00:26:15,569 --> 00:26:18,450
在你的模型中考虑这笔收购

702
00:26:18,450 --> 00:26:19,089
你有

703
00:26:19,089 --> 00:26:19,470
你知道的

704
00:26:19,470 --> 00:26:21,650
不同类型的营收协同效应

705
00:26:21,650 --> 00:26:22,990
一旦收购该公司

706
00:26:22,990 --> 00:26:25,240
将其整合到自身业务中

707
00:26:25,240 --> 00:26:28,440
然后同样的情况是否存在不同的营业利润率假设

708
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:30,509
你是否能够捕捉到

709
00:26:30,509 --> 00:26:33,599
在成本端也能获得一些协同效应

710
00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:34,460
是的

711
00:26:34,460 --> 00:26:35,319
所以啊

712
00:26:35,319 --> 00:26:36,720
肯定在成本端

713
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:38,220
你知道你会拥有

714
00:26:38,220 --> 00:26:38,779
嗯

715
00:26:38,779 --> 00:26:41,309
公司已经讨论过这会是什么样的

716
00:26:41,309 --> 00:26:42,730
这会是什么样的

717
00:26:42,730 --> 00:26:45,470
我们认为管理层发布的预测

718
00:26:45,470 --> 00:26:50,660
他们提出的自由现金流预测相当合理

719
00:26:50,660 --> 00:26:52,140
在营收端

720
00:26:52,140 --> 00:26:53,039
我认为这里存在

721
00:26:53,039 --> 00:26:54,660
还有巨大的增长空间

722
00:26:54,660 --> 00:26:58,328
因为身份认证正处于拐点

723
00:26:58,328 --> 00:26:59,848
当我们考虑基因

724
00:26:59,848 --> 00:27:03,200
这将如何影响基因身份的实际应用

725
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:06,099
你需要为代理建立安全体系

726
00:27:06,099 --> 00:27:08,039
我们认为赛博弧

727
00:27:08,039 --> 00:27:08,700
嗯 不

728
00:27:08,700 --> 00:27:10,369
人类身份或尼

729
00:27:10,404 --> 00:27:13,470
安全体系非常稳固

730
00:27:13,470 --> 00:27:14,910
然后你有保罗

731
00:27:14,910 --> 00:27:20,319
拥有所有大型企业的联系方式

732
00:27:20,319 --> 00:27:22,660
可以直接向采用代理的公司推销

733
00:27:22,660 --> 00:27:26,269
赛博身份解决方案

734
00:27:26,269 --> 00:27:29,130
因此这种组合非常有吸引力

735
00:27:29,130 --> 00:27:31,190
这将推动营收强劲增长

736
00:27:31,190 --> 00:27:35,798
这也是收购的工业逻辑

737
00:27:35,798 --> 00:27:38,019
明白了 继续

738
00:27:38,019 --> 00:27:40,019
你的第二选择是Z Scalar

739
00:27:40,019 --> 00:27:40,579
我很好奇

740
00:27:40,579 --> 00:27:42,339
能否具体说明

741
00:27:42,339 --> 00:27:44,319
Z Scalar具体做什么

742
00:27:44,319 --> 00:27:47,910
以及它是否比其他公司规模稍小

743
00:27:47,910 --> 00:27:49,309
这可能让你有所顾虑

744
00:27:49,309 --> 00:27:50,970
你之前提到过

745
00:27:50,970 --> 00:27:52,410
一些小公司

746
00:27:52,410 --> 00:27:54,089
可能面临

747
00:27:54,089 --> 00:27:58,509
成为收购目标或被挤压的风险

748
00:27:58,509 --> 00:28:00,690
简而言之

749
00:28:00,690 --> 00:28:03,210
Z Scalar的核心业务是

750
00:28:03,210 --> 00:28:03,490
你知道的

751
00:28:03,490 --> 00:28:04,289
我谈到了

752
00:28:04,289 --> 00:28:06,089
我谈到了呃

753
00:28:06,089 --> 00:28:07,970
新冠以及它带来的影响

754
00:28:07,970 --> 00:28:08,650
呃

755
00:28:08,650 --> 00:28:08,970
你知道的

756
00:28:08,970 --> 00:28:10,670
当所有人都转向数字化时

757
00:28:10,670 --> 00:28:12,819
从本质上讲历史地看

758
00:28:13,819 --> 00:28:15,400
网络流量是如何运作的

759
00:28:15,400 --> 00:28:17,440
你的网络流量是否正常

760
00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:19,539
如果我坐在多伦多

761
00:28:19,539 --> 00:28:21,759
我的流量实际上会直达总部

762
00:28:21,759 --> 00:28:23,519
芝加哥的晨星总部

763
00:28:23,519 --> 00:28:24,700
那里会有一个防火墙

764
00:28:24,700 --> 00:28:28,960
能够防御伴随流量的任何恶意攻击

765
00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:34,349
对的希特勒的做法是如果艾哈迈德在多伦多

766
00:28:34,349 --> 00:28:37,180
想要访问云应用

767
00:28:37,180 --> 00:28:39,460
我们无需将流量路由到芝加哥

768
00:28:39,460 --> 00:28:43,579
可以直接建立从艾哈迈德到云的隧道

769
00:28:43,579 --> 00:28:45,619
应用实际所在的云环境

770
00:28:45,619 --> 00:28:50,750
这些安全网关正是这类产品的核心优势

771
00:28:50,750 --> 00:28:51,430
嗯

772
00:28:51,430 --> 00:28:54,029
它们主要在网络领域运营

773
00:28:54,029 --> 00:28:56,480
如今在网络安全市场占据主导

774
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:57,519
正如我之前提到的

775
00:28:57,519 --> 00:28:57,859
你知道的

776
00:28:57,859 --> 00:29:00,000
平台化与供应商整合趋势

777
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:03,579
他们已拓展至其他市场

778
00:29:03,579 --> 00:29:05,359
但这是他们的核心业务

779
00:29:05,359 --> 00:29:07,819
正如你所说的核心业务

780
00:29:07,819 --> 00:29:08,519
嗯

781
00:29:08,519 --> 00:29:09,849
是否

782
00:29:09,849 --> 00:29:14,190
这些公司相比《宝可梦》和《使命召唤》及CrowdStrike

783
00:29:14,190 --> 00:29:15,630
是否会面临挤压

784
00:29:15,630 --> 00:29:17,049
同样

785
00:29:17,049 --> 00:29:21,288
公司确实偏向企业客户

786
00:29:21,288 --> 00:29:22,269
客户群体

787
00:29:22,269 --> 00:29:24,288
拥有极高的留存率

788
00:29:24,288 --> 00:29:26,249
高达九十多%

789
00:29:26,249 --> 00:29:27,220
嗯

790
00:29:27,220 --> 00:29:31,299
我们认为其未来发展空间巨大

791
00:29:31,299 --> 00:29:35,289
尤其是网络流量持续增长

792
00:29:35,289 --> 00:29:35,890
嗯

793
00:29:35,890 --> 00:29:36,390
你知道的

794
00:29:36,390 --> 00:29:36,930
嗯

795
00:29:36,930 --> 00:29:37,369
嗯

796
00:29:37,369 --> 00:29:40,279
我们将拥有远超人类用户的智能代理

797
00:29:40,279 --> 00:29:43,240
实际使用网络和互联网

798
00:29:43,240 --> 00:29:46,180
这将导致更多流量

799
00:29:46,180 --> 00:29:48,240
而这正是Scaler需要应对的

800
00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:51,970
啊啊啊 这就是Scaler正在保护的

801
00:29:51,970 --> 00:29:56,490
所以我认为，公司最近的季度报告中提供了一些数据

802
00:29:56,490 --> 00:29:56,750
例如

803
00:29:56,750 --> 00:29:59,069
像模型上下文

804
00:29:59,069 --> 00:30:00,710
协议或MCCP

805
00:30:00,710 --> 00:30:01,549
请求

806
00:30:01,549 --> 00:30:04,849
公司的处理量已上升至数百万

807
00:30:04,849 --> 00:30:07,230
相比几个季度前几乎为零的情况

808
00:30:07,230 --> 00:30:10,160
因此当我们考虑生成式技术时

809
00:30:10,160 --> 00:30:15,779
并思考AI使用如何推动ZScaler作为销售增长

810
00:30:15,779 --> 00:30:21,450
我认为投资者目前担忧的仍是类似保罗提到的内容

811
00:30:21,450 --> 00:30:23,339
这位滑冰者拥有这项收购

812
00:30:23,339 --> 00:30:26,640
这笔交易我估计是六亿七千五百万美元收购这家公司

813
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:31,299
这家公司叫红雀，红雀运营的领域与网络安全完全不同

814
00:30:31,299 --> 00:30:32,680
这些快速流动的业务

815
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:34,900
你们可能并不具备太多专业知识

816
00:30:34,900 --> 00:30:40,839
然后公司管理层提到红雀客户留存率上升

817
00:30:40,839 --> 00:30:42,460
或年度持续营收基础

818
00:30:42,460 --> 00:30:44,039
我认为这令投资者感到不安

819
00:30:44,039 --> 00:30:46,000
因为你们正在进入新市场

820
00:30:46,000 --> 00:30:47,900
而你们其实并不具备相关专业知识

821
00:30:47,900 --> 00:30:50,779
然后你提到用户流失率增加

822
00:30:50,779 --> 00:30:53,819
然后发生了一些啊

823
00:30:53,819 --> 00:30:54,980
我觉得他们本可以

824
00:30:54,980 --> 00:30:56,839
他们本可以更好披露信息

825
00:30:56,839 --> 00:30:58,819
关于出现的错误问题

826
00:30:58,819 --> 00:31:01,220
他们从红雀那里收到的错误

827
00:31:01,220 --> 00:31:04,670
以及有机增长率的z滑板啊

828
00:31:04,670 --> 00:31:08,170
我们眼中的当前阶段

829
00:31:08,170 --> 00:31:10,000
既然我们显然没有

830
00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:10,380
你知道的

831
00:31:10,380 --> 00:31:11,039
仓位很重要

832
00:31:11,039 --> 00:31:12,079
接下来的季度同样关键

833
00:31:12,079 --> 00:31:13,119
之后的季度也同样重要

834
00:31:13,119 --> 00:31:16,200
但如果考虑滑冰者长期的发展轨迹

835
00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:20,940
我们认为长期增长故事依然稳固

836
00:31:20,940 --> 00:31:23,900
这也是我们为何认为投资者有巨大增值空间

837
00:31:23,900 --> 00:31:26,000
尤其是那些长期投资的投资者

838
00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:29,740
并且愿意承受短期波动的投资者

839
00:31:29,940 --> 00:31:30,920
出于好奇

840
00:31:30,920 --> 00:31:33,599
今天这只股票在交易中表现如何

841
00:31:33,599 --> 00:31:35,740
与你的内在价值相比

842
00:31:35,740 --> 00:31:37,859
毫无疑问它正在150区间交易

843
00:31:37,859 --> 00:31:39,519
我们的公允价值是300

844
00:31:39,519 --> 00:31:42,940
这意味着几乎100%的上涨空间

845
00:31:42,940 --> 00:31:44,259
90区间内的上涨空间

846
00:31:44,259 --> 00:31:45,079
嗯

847
00:31:45,079 --> 00:31:47,380
从这里看相当有吸引力

848
00:31:47,779 --> 00:31:51,019
近期你认为这个标的存在哪些风险因素

849
00:31:51,339 --> 00:31:54,940
我想重点强调的是关于滑板的部分

850
00:31:54,940 --> 00:31:55,500
嗯

851
00:31:55,500 --> 00:31:59,179
最近投资者对基于C的定价更加担忧

852
00:31:59,829 --> 00:32:00,910
因为他们担心

853
00:32:00,910 --> 00:32:01,430
你知道的

854
00:32:01,430 --> 00:32:03,390
白领岗位流失及其影响

855
00:32:03,390 --> 00:32:06,910
或者许多企业招聘放缓

856
00:32:06,910 --> 00:32:08,819
这对增长意味着什么

857
00:32:08,819 --> 00:32:12,529
Scaler的核心业务一直基于席位

858
00:32:12,529 --> 00:32:13,049
现在

859
00:32:13,049 --> 00:32:14,789
管理层会告诉你其中两项

860
00:32:14,789 --> 00:32:18,049
他们年度合同价值的5%已转为消费模式

861
00:32:18,049 --> 00:32:21,490
这不受此情景影响

862
00:32:21,490 --> 00:32:27,019
这种岗位流失或招聘放缓的场景

863
00:32:27,019 --> 00:32:27,819
嗯

864
00:32:27,819 --> 00:32:30,599
但我觉得这确实存在短期风险

865
00:32:30,599 --> 00:32:38,028
若消费端贡献无法抵消席位业务的疲软

866
00:32:38,028 --> 00:32:38,779
席位基础

867
00:32:38,779 --> 00:32:40,140
这可能形成阻力

868
00:32:40,140 --> 00:32:43,480
并将迫使我们重新评估对Scaler的判断

869
00:32:43,480 --> 00:32:44,539
但我们对

870
00:32:45,660 --> 00:32:46,460
嗯

871
00:32:46,740 --> 00:32:49,380
消费端的ACD贡献

872
00:32:49,380 --> 00:32:53,609
我们看到其增长远超席位业务的疲软

873
00:32:53,609 --> 00:32:56,490
因此我们不会看到席位业务的弱点

874
00:32:56,660 --> 00:32:59,099
他们将逐步转向

875
00:32:59,099 --> 00:32:59,500
你知道的

876
00:32:59,500 --> 00:33:01,940
更多基于经济价值收费

877
00:33:01,940 --> 00:33:03,470
而非单纯销售单个席位订阅

878
00:33:03,470 --> 00:33:09,180
而非单纯销售单个席位订阅

879
00:33:09,180 --> 00:33:09,839
这确实

880
00:33:09,839 --> 00:33:10,460
这也是

881
00:33:10,460 --> 00:33:12,960
这就是我们在网络安全领域看到的趋势

882
00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:15,539
越来越多公司转向消费模式

883
00:33:15,539 --> 00:33:17,140
因为这显然

884
00:33:17,140 --> 00:33:18,759
完全合理

885
00:33:18,759 --> 00:33:19,638
嗯

886
00:33:19,638 --> 00:33:20,618
长期来看

887
00:33:20,618 --> 00:33:22,259
尤其是考虑智能体

888
00:33:22,259 --> 00:33:28,949
以及AI在组织中的大规模部署

889
00:33:28,949 --> 00:33:29,669
好的

890
00:33:29,669 --> 00:33:30,108
那么

891
00:33:30,108 --> 00:33:31,308
我们在这里总结一下

892
00:33:31,308 --> 00:33:33,669
今天推荐的最后一支是堡垒之夜

893
00:33:33,669 --> 00:33:36,619
请简要阐述你的投资逻辑

894
00:33:36,619 --> 00:33:38,680
未来几年的发展展望

895
00:33:38,680 --> 00:33:41,579
以及当前估值

896
00:33:41,579 --> 00:33:46,339
堡垒之夜当前股价有约30%上涨空间

897
00:33:46,339 --> 00:33:49,180
目前交易在80多区间

898
00:33:49,180 --> 00:33:53,769
我们的合理估值为108，堡垒之夜故事更清晰

899
00:33:53,769 --> 00:33:54,390
嗯

900
00:33:54,390 --> 00:33:54,970
总之

901
00:33:54,970 --> 00:34:00,059
它没有我之前提到的与polo和z scaler相关的执行风险

902
00:34:00,059 --> 00:34:00,880
嗯

903
00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:05,019
堡垒之夜的核心优势在于它是其主营业务

904
00:34:05,019 --> 00:34:06,119
它是防火墙业务

905
00:34:06,119 --> 00:34:08,380
然后公司一直在销售sassy

906
00:34:08,380 --> 00:34:12,960
这本质上是网络与安全及安全运营的融合

907
00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:14,059
在其现有业务之上

908
00:34:14,059 --> 00:34:14,619
呃

909
00:34:14,619 --> 00:34:15,929
在其防火墙业务之上

910
00:34:15,929 --> 00:34:16,429
啊

911
00:34:16,429 --> 00:34:17,070
啊

912
00:34:17,070 --> 00:34:18,170
向其防火墙客户

913
00:34:18,170 --> 00:34:20,829
因此拥有超过八十万名防火墙客户

914
00:34:20,829 --> 00:34:23,429
然后公司会向这些客户说

915
00:34:23,429 --> 00:34:25,590
我们也在销售sassy和安全运营服务

916
00:34:25,590 --> 00:34:26,110
你们需要

917
00:34:26,110 --> 00:34:27,550
你们是否愿意从我们这里购买

918
00:34:27,550 --> 00:34:31,510
这创造了极具吸引力的交叉销售机会

919
00:34:31,510 --> 00:34:33,469
因为你无需再去寻找新客户

920
00:34:33,469 --> 00:34:35,389
这对盈利能力非常有利

921
00:34:36,989 --> 00:34:40,219
交叉销售比获取新客户成本低得多

922
00:34:40,219 --> 00:34:40,860
然后

923
00:34:40,860 --> 00:34:41,579
正如我之前提到的

924
00:34:41,579 --> 00:34:43,420
他们在时机上

925
00:34:43,420 --> 00:34:48,050
客户对供应商整合有强烈需求

926
00:34:48,050 --> 00:34:49,889
顺便说一句，当我说供应商整合时

927
00:34:49,889 --> 00:34:52,010
客户其实并不排斥

928
00:34:52,010 --> 00:34:53,949
因为这能节省10%到20%

929
00:34:53,949 --> 00:34:56,489
客户有整合供应商的需求

930
00:34:56,489 --> 00:34:59,228
因为它能提升安全效果

931
00:34:59,228 --> 00:34:59,708
你知道的

932
00:34:59,708 --> 00:35:01,818
如果减少安全供应商数量

933
00:35:02,418 --> 00:35:04,298
每次数据泄露成本会降低

934
00:35:04,298 --> 00:35:06,498
数据泄露频率也会下降

935
00:35:06,498 --> 00:35:09,739
这些公司正是在顺应这一趋势

936
00:35:09,739 --> 00:35:10,559
嗯

937
00:35:10,559 --> 00:35:12,139
谈到堡垒之夜

938
00:35:12,139 --> 00:35:15,829
公司明显在sassy和安全运营领域增长迅速

939
00:35:15,829 --> 00:35:16,710
嗯

940
00:35:16,710 --> 00:35:20,070
而防火墙业务依然保持稳健

941
00:35:20,070 --> 00:35:20,730
嗯

942
00:35:20,730 --> 00:35:21,210
所以

943
00:35:21,210 --> 00:35:21,690
我们

944
00:35:21,690 --> 00:35:27,329
我们相当

945
00:35:27,329 --> 00:35:30,610
我们对公司的长期发展路径很有信心

946
00:35:31,329 --> 00:35:32,130
我认为

947
00:35:32,130 --> 00:35:33,429
市场低估了

948
00:35:33,429 --> 00:35:33,929
特别是

949
00:35:33,929 --> 00:35:35,809
来自sassy和安全运营的增长潜力

950
00:35:35,809 --> 00:35:40,739
以及这如何推动更高收入增长

951
00:35:40,739 --> 00:35:43,550
这家公司经营得很好

952
00:35:43,550 --> 00:35:44,050
艾哈迈德

953
00:35:44,050 --> 00:35:48,119
非常感谢您今天加入我们，在这个早间滤镜的特别节目中

954
00:35:48,119 --> 00:35:50,320
对于想要更多了解信息的朋友们

955
00:35:50,320 --> 00:35:53,400
关于我们所涵盖的任何网络安全公司

956
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:56,500
当然可以阅读艾哈迈德在晨星网上的分析

957
00:35:56,500 --> 00:35:56,900
Com

958
00:35:56,900 --> 00:35:59,210
或者您使用的任何晨星平台

959
00:35:59,210 --> 00:36:03,030
希望您能每周一与苏珊和我一起收听早间滤镜播客

960
00:36:03,030 --> 00:36:04,650
时间为东部时间上午九点

961
00:36:04,650 --> 00:36:06,059
中部时间上午八点

962
00:36:06,059 --> 00:36:08,380
每周我们都会分析本周需要关注的内容

963
00:36:08,380 --> 00:36:09,280
下周的重点

964
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:11,880
我们回顾晨星网上周发布的研究报告

965
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:12,579
上周发布的

966
00:36:12,579 --> 00:36:13,510
您一定不要错过

967
00:36:13,510 --> 00:36:16,409
然后我们总是以几只新股票推荐

968
00:36:16,409 --> 00:36:18,818
几只股票减持或换股建议

969
00:36:18,818 --> 00:36:21,820
非常感谢您今天抽出时间与我们共度

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