1
00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:01,379
啊,糟了
2
00:00:01,379 --> 00:00:05,419
唐纳德·特朗普谈到要在中东增派一万兵力
3
00:00:05,419 --> 00:00:08,660
但这不是市场今日抛售的唯一原因
4
00:00:08,660 --> 00:00:10,330
我们将逐一解析
5
00:00:10,330 --> 00:00:13,369
我们不仅面临美联储的担忧
6
00:00:13,369 --> 00:00:16,989
还存在军队成为活靶的困境
7
00:00:16,989 --> 00:00:19,259
或者中东成为一群活靶
8
00:00:19,259 --> 00:00:21,079
不过不得不说
9
00:00:21,079 --> 00:00:22,338
但美联储加息预期
10
00:00:22,338 --> 00:00:23,439
请看这个
11
00:00:23,439 --> 00:00:27,158
这是十二月的美联储加息预期
12
00:00:27,158 --> 00:00:29,109
二零二六年九月
13
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这里显示
14
00:00:30,309 --> 00:00:36,950
表明约60%共识认为今年不会调整利率
15
00:00:36,950 --> 00:00:37,630
好的
16
00:00:37,630 --> 00:00:38,250
通常来说
17
00:00:38,250 --> 00:00:39,689
以及今年初的情况
18
00:00:39,689 --> 00:00:43,229
是我们预期全年将实施两次降息
19
00:00:43,229 --> 00:00:43,719
没错
20
00:00:43,719 --> 00:00:44,899
是的但
21
00:00:44,899 --> 00:00:47,590
如果你注意这个柱状图左侧
22
00:00:47,590 --> 00:00:53,768
因为市场已将今年单次降息概率定为零
23
00:00:53,768 --> 00:00:56,289
反而定价三次
24
00:00:56,289 --> 00:00:59,200
有2%概率一次加息
25
00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:03,299
6.2%概率两次加息
26
00:01:03,299 --> 00:01:08,709
甚至0.5%概率三次加息
27
00:01:08,709 --> 00:01:12,109
当综合这些累积效应
28
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到十二月全年加息概率达39.3%
29
00:01:19,030 --> 00:01:23,329
这对市场流动性不利
30
00:01:23,329 --> 00:01:26,569
近期所有问题都围绕流动性
31
00:01:26,569 --> 00:01:27,510
如果你想知道的话
32
00:01:27,510 --> 00:01:28,560
凯文嘿
33
00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:32,420
你知道你曾预测凯文·沃什当选后黄金见顶
34
00:01:32,420 --> 00:01:35,640
但为何在地缘政治问题中黄金却下跌
35
00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:36,789
这很奇怪
36
00:01:36,789 --> 00:01:40,629
这与私募信贷市场的问题相同
37
00:01:40,629 --> 00:01:42,590
同样出现在黄金市场的困境
38
00:01:42,590 --> 00:01:44,430
同样存在于国债市场
39
00:01:44,430 --> 00:01:46,709
同样反映在股市
40
00:01:46,709 --> 00:01:49,329
所有问题都与L词相关
41
00:01:49,329 --> 00:01:52,629
不是loser流动性
42
00:01:52,950 --> 00:01:55,209
听高盛怎么说
43
00:01:55,209 --> 00:01:58,170
昨日又有新国债拍卖
44
00:01:58,170 --> 00:01:59,310
国债拍卖
45
00:01:59,310 --> 00:02:01,430
也暗示流动性不足
46
00:02:01,430 --> 00:02:05,540
这感觉有些不对劲
47
00:02:05,540 --> 00:02:11,659
更清晰的解释是跨资产流动性抽离
48
00:02:11,659 --> 00:02:14,500
若产油国无法套现油流
49
00:02:14,500 --> 00:02:17,199
需在其他领域筹措现金
50
00:02:17,199 --> 00:02:21,709
这可能引发利率相关资产同步抛售
51
00:02:21,709 --> 00:02:24,008
股票和黄金
52
00:02:24,008 --> 00:02:28,068
这是一个不可持续的均衡状态
53
00:02:28,068 --> 00:02:29,519
换句话说
54
00:02:29,519 --> 00:02:31,878
没有人有钱继续消费
55
00:02:31,878 --> 00:02:32,938
因为太棒了
56
00:02:32,938 --> 00:02:36,419
也许我们正在意识到保证金水平
57
00:02:36,419 --> 00:02:38,639
这些是净多头保证金水平
58
00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:39,340
达到三倍
59
00:02:39,340 --> 00:02:43,680
比2021年牛市期间的最高水平高6%
60
00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:45,560
这不是好事
61
00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:49,699
也许大家都在押注特朗普塔可
62
00:02:49,699 --> 00:02:53,579
解放日后在保证金上加杠杆
63
00:02:53,579 --> 00:02:56,419
为下一次大崩盘埋下隐患
64
00:02:56,419 --> 00:02:56,979
傻瓜
65
00:02:56,979 --> 00:03:01,938
现在流动性解释了为何我们面临全面痛苦
66
00:03:01,938 --> 00:03:04,080
但为何情况恶化
67
00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:04,800
这其中很多
68
00:03:04,800 --> 00:03:07,729
当然与特朗普有关
69
00:03:07,729 --> 00:03:11,009
关于向伊朗部署1万部队的情况
70
00:03:11,009 --> 00:03:13,539
成为活靶子的潜在泥潭
71
00:03:13,539 --> 00:03:14,840
稍后详细讨论
72
00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:17,000
正如乔肯特正在谈论的
73
00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:21,579
我们十年期国债在盘前有所回调
74
00:03:21,579 --> 00:03:23,498
这在我们今早的阿尔法报告中提到
75
00:03:23,498 --> 00:03:24,318
在我们的阿尔法报告中
76
00:03:24,318 --> 00:03:24,739
我们指出
77
00:03:24,739 --> 00:03:28,139
关注十年期国债从4.4%
78
00:03:28,139 --> 00:03:29,819
我们在盘前所处的水平
79
00:03:29,819 --> 00:03:32,080
回落至4.4%
80
00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:33,199
4.3%
81
00:03:33,199 --> 00:03:34,919
我们现在在4.43%
82
00:03:34,919 --> 00:03:35,939
这非常棒
83
00:03:35,939 --> 00:03:38,259
但仍导致最高房贷利率
84
00:03:38,259 --> 00:03:40,939
过去约六个月
85
00:03:40,939 --> 00:03:43,360
不幸的是利率越高
86
00:03:43,360 --> 00:03:46,650
私人信贷等领域的流动性问题越严重
87
00:03:46,650 --> 00:03:52,039
现在请观看乔肯特的视频
88
00:03:52,039 --> 00:03:55,599
因为它真正反映了我们可能面临的挑战
89
00:03:55,599 --> 00:03:56,889
我们将观看这段视频
90
00:03:56,889 --> 00:03:58,270
但我想展示
91
00:03:58,270 --> 00:04:00,810
我们在阿尔法报告中做出的几个预测
92
00:04:00,810 --> 00:04:02,439
就在几天前
93
00:04:02,439 --> 00:04:03,439
请看这个
94
00:04:03,439 --> 00:04:05,319
我们看空特朗普行情
95
00:04:05,319 --> 00:04:06,240
这不是一页
96
00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:08,539
这只是让你学习的机会
97
00:04:08,539 --> 00:04:10,840
我的目标是通过这个频道教你
98
00:04:10,840 --> 00:04:12,219
让你了解视角
99
00:04:12,219 --> 00:04:13,900
我们了解特朗普行情
100
00:04:13,900 --> 00:04:15,590
我们在频道上一直在讨论
101
00:04:15,590 --> 00:04:18,209
因此在周二到周三期间看空很容易
102
00:04:18,209 --> 00:04:18,870
你知道的
103
00:04:18,870 --> 00:04:20,470
从周二到周三开始
104
00:04:20,470 --> 00:04:22,300
周四到周五我们就会看到
105
00:04:22,300 --> 00:04:23,740
我们可能会继续下跌
106
00:04:23,740 --> 00:04:27,610
因为特朗普局势升级将在周四到周五显现
107
00:04:27,610 --> 00:04:28,310
果然如此
108
00:04:28,310 --> 00:04:30,149
我们不仅看到伞兵部队部署
109
00:04:30,149 --> 00:04:33,389
现在又有约一万新增部队部署于边境墙
110
00:04:33,389 --> 00:04:33,810
《华尔街日报》报道
111
00:04:33,810 --> 00:04:34,509
这将部署在
112
00:04:34,509 --> 00:04:36,310
除了两栖部队之外
113
00:04:36,310 --> 00:04:37,589
美国海军提普顿号
114
00:04:37,589 --> 00:04:38,908
今日抵达
115
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嗯
116
00:04:40,348 --> 00:04:40,629
然后
117
00:04:40,629 --> 00:04:41,189
当然
118
00:04:41,189 --> 00:04:41,728
呃
119
00:04:41,728 --> 00:04:44,040
第二批
120
00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:44,480
呃
121
00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:45,360
两栖部队
122
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将在约一周或两周后抵达
123
00:04:48,060 --> 00:04:51,870
我们可能新增一万部队进入该地区
124
00:04:51,870 --> 00:04:52,490
不过暂且不提
125
00:04:52,490 --> 00:04:55,350
因此我们对周四到周五走势看空
126
00:04:55,350 --> 00:04:57,189
这迄今为止是个精准预测
127
00:04:57,189 --> 00:05:00,029
我们关注QQ指数577点压力位
128
00:05:00,029 --> 00:05:00,418
Q
129
00:05:00,418 --> 00:05:03,338
若跌破577点将转为看空
130
00:05:03,338 --> 00:05:06,019
这对纳斯达克已是修正区间
131
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值得注意的是
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00:05:06,559 --> 00:05:09,670
我们昨日已跌破577点
133
00:05:09,670 --> 00:05:12,449
这标志着纳斯达克正式进入
134
00:05:12,449 --> 00:05:13,908
100点修正
135
00:05:13,908 --> 00:05:16,249
我们每日都在强调
136
00:05:16,249 --> 00:05:20,649
股市每次反弹都在快速消退
137
00:05:20,649 --> 00:05:21,910
这很常见
138
00:05:21,910 --> 00:05:22,870
交易者入场
139
00:05:22,870 --> 00:05:23,970
试图获利
140
00:05:23,970 --> 00:05:26,908
但实际很难把握这些反弹行情
141
00:05:26,908 --> 00:05:29,668
因为随后就是更多抛售
142
00:05:29,668 --> 00:05:32,649
仅能获得5到10分钟的 rally
143
00:05:32,649 --> 00:05:33,490
然后就结束了
144
00:05:33,490 --> 00:05:35,029
接着继续下跌
145
00:05:35,029 --> 00:05:36,269
这已成为规律
146
00:05:36,269 --> 00:05:39,389
因此向上交易非常困难
147
00:05:39,389 --> 00:05:41,310
向下交易则容易得多
148
00:05:41,310 --> 00:05:42,860
说到看空交易
149
00:05:42,860 --> 00:05:43,740
闪迪公司
150
00:05:43,740 --> 00:05:47,298
昨日早盘我们发出看空信号
151
00:05:47,298 --> 00:05:49,738
或称为沙盘和美光的看跌动能
152
00:05:49,738 --> 00:05:51,559
美光昨日下跌约5%
153
00:05:51,559 --> 00:05:54,399
沙盘昨日暴跌11%
154
00:05:54,399 --> 00:05:56,319
我做出这一判断的原因之一是
155
00:05:56,319 --> 00:05:58,779
当然因为谷歌的研究
156
00:05:58,779 --> 00:05:59,600
所以你知道的
157
00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:00,519
我想你并不知道
158
00:06:00,519 --> 00:06:01,720
我在水晶球中窥探
159
00:06:01,720 --> 00:06:05,439
我们认为这是基本面研究并将其纳入我们的阿尔法报告
160
00:06:05,439 --> 00:06:07,199
每天开盘前
161
00:06:07,199 --> 00:06:08,560
请记住你可以获取这些信息
162
00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:09,699
我们即将发放下一期息票
163
00:06:09,699 --> 00:06:10,579
到期日期为三月
164
00:06:10,579 --> 00:06:11,079
三十一日
165
00:06:11,079 --> 00:06:12,600
可在meekevin.com获取
166
00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:16,189
我们在昨日开盘前阿尔法报告中提及的另一件事
167
00:06:16,189 --> 00:06:18,759
是vcx即将崩盘
168
00:06:18,759 --> 00:06:21,160
我甚至给它设定了20美元的目标价
169
00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:24,019
而昨日早盘时股价约500美元
170
00:06:24,019 --> 00:06:24,819
就在昨日
171
00:06:24,819 --> 00:06:28,360
股价暴跌50%
172
00:06:28,360 --> 00:06:30,540
昨日单日暴跌50%
173
00:06:30,540 --> 00:06:32,139
我们做出了这一预测
174
00:06:32,139 --> 00:06:32,660
嗯
175
00:06:32,660 --> 00:06:33,879
就在盘前阶段
176
00:06:33,879 --> 00:06:35,420
当时股价停留在400美元
177
00:06:35,420 --> 00:06:36,620
猜猜这是什么
178
00:06:36,620 --> 00:06:38,240
大约430美元左右
179
00:06:38,240 --> 00:06:38,759
好吧
180
00:06:38,759 --> 00:06:40,749
从430美元左右回落
181
00:06:40,749 --> 00:06:42,249
我们看到前一日的高点
182
00:06:42,249 --> 00:06:44,249
昨日单日暴跌超50%
183
00:06:44,249 --> 00:06:45,709
跌至182美元
184
00:06:45,709 --> 00:06:47,228
今日再跌3%
185
00:06:47,228 --> 00:06:49,120
7%跌幅
186
00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:51,560
这是我们两天前盘前做出的预测
187
00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:52,319
已记录在案
188
00:06:52,319 --> 00:06:53,360
你可以查看相关记录
189
00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:55,720
我们对IQ进行了基本面分析
190
00:06:55,720 --> 00:06:58,480
揭示了IQ基本面的真相
191
00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:02,620
进一步分析兰纳、联邦快递、超微、Rivian和Swarmer
192
00:07:02,620 --> 00:07:05,040
当特斯拉开始跌至400美元时
193
00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:07,620
我们建议采用347策略应对特斯拉
194
00:07:07,620 --> 00:07:08,620
效果不佳
195
00:07:08,620 --> 00:07:09,899
正朝该方向发展
196
00:07:09,899 --> 00:07:12,300
但让我们暂时聚焦伊朗
197
00:07:12,300 --> 00:07:15,189
肯特先生有何看法肯
198
00:07:15,189 --> 00:07:17,149
反恐行动
199
00:07:17,149 --> 00:07:18,629
执行者
200
00:07:18,629 --> 00:07:20,168
若由唐纳德·特朗普担任
201
00:07:20,168 --> 00:07:22,420
谁在之后辞职了
202
00:07:22,420 --> 00:07:23,180
呃
203
00:07:23,180 --> 00:07:24,079
唐纳德·特朗普
204
00:07:24,079 --> 00:07:26,899
你启动了不发动新战争的承诺
205
00:07:26,899 --> 00:07:30,720
他强烈反对发动新战争
206
00:07:30,720 --> 00:07:31,259
呃
207
00:07:31,259 --> 00:07:38,288
他的论点是我们正在部署部队成为活靶子
208
00:07:38,288 --> 00:07:43,449
鉴于我们看到更多带有实际兵力调动的升级行动
209
00:07:43,449 --> 00:07:45,288
不是特朗普说的那样
210
00:07:45,288 --> 00:07:47,168
而是特朗普实际做的那样
211
00:07:47,168 --> 00:07:51,048
从敌人的眼中看,这并不像好事
212
00:07:51,048 --> 00:07:52,129
所以如果我是伊朗
213
00:07:52,129 --> 00:07:56,120
现在最好的礼物就是拥有海军陆战队和空降兵
214
00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:56,860
降落
215
00:07:56,860 --> 00:07:57,379
呃
216
00:07:57,379 --> 00:07:59,220
或者夺取这些岛屿中的任何一个海滩
217
00:07:59,220 --> 00:07:59,660
我无所谓
218
00:07:59,660 --> 00:08:00,240
不管哪个
219
00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:01,689
我会让他们进来
220
00:08:01,689 --> 00:08:04,930
然后我会非常明确地表明
221
00:08:04,930 --> 00:08:06,870
但通过使用采矿技术
222
00:08:06,870 --> 00:08:08,230
通过使用弹道导弹
223
00:08:08,230 --> 00:08:09,649
通过使用无人机群
224
00:08:09,649 --> 00:08:11,629
他们现在成了我们的人质
225
00:08:11,629 --> 00:08:14,829
嗯,所以这应该还记得昨天
226
00:08:14,829 --> 00:08:16,050
我们之前谈到的关于
227
00:08:16,050 --> 00:08:16,389
呃
228
00:08:16,389 --> 00:08:17,189
第一人称视角
229
00:08:17,189 --> 00:08:19,689
光纤操控无人机
230
00:08:19,689 --> 00:08:24,709
这些现在正在黎巴嫩对以色列的冲突中使用
231
00:08:24,709 --> 00:08:25,529
由真主党
232
00:08:25,529 --> 00:08:26,009
真主党
233
00:08:26,009 --> 00:08:27,009
开始使用它们
234
00:08:27,009 --> 00:08:30,449
显然在俄罗斯与乌克兰冲突中被普及
235
00:08:30,449 --> 00:08:35,169
这种二十英里杀伤区,我们直接四次行动
236
00:08:35,169 --> 00:08:38,330
正是光纤引导无人机的理想宽度
237
00:08:38,330 --> 00:08:39,429
战略灾难
238
00:08:39,429 --> 00:08:39,809
说实话
239
00:08:39,809 --> 00:08:40,668
我认为
240
00:08:40,668 --> 00:08:41,788
如果如果那个嗯
241
00:08:41,788 --> 00:08:45,399
伊朗人很聪明,他们聪明到会让我们占领这座岛屿
242
00:08:45,399 --> 00:08:46,219
他们会让我们像这样
243
00:08:46,219 --> 00:08:46,558
你知道的
244
00:08:46,558 --> 00:08:49,619
制作一段胜利视频,展示我们现在掌控了炼油设施
245
00:08:49,619 --> 00:08:50,458
这完全是博眼球的把戏
246
00:08:50,458 --> 00:08:51,649
而且海峡已经开放
247
00:08:51,649 --> 00:08:54,250
然后我会非常非常清楚地
248
00:08:54,250 --> 00:08:57,690
迅速而有力地表明他们实际上并不控制这片海域
249
00:08:57,690 --> 00:08:58,509
我会使用无人机
250
00:08:58,509 --> 00:09:00,289
使用我们已知他们拥有的弹道武器
251
00:09:00,289 --> 00:09:10,009
我认为人们严重低估了小型舰艇在战争中的作用
252
00:09:10,009 --> 00:09:10,729
呃
253
00:09:10,729 --> 00:09:11,048
你知道的
254
00:09:11,048 --> 00:09:13,789
昨天美军中央司令部
255
00:09:13,789 --> 00:09:16,289
随后是唐纳德·特朗普
256
00:09:16,289 --> 00:09:17,590
JD·万斯和马可·卢比奥
257
00:09:17,590 --> 00:09:18,629
我们都在吹嘘如何
258
00:09:18,629 --> 00:09:22,299
已摧毁伊朗海军92%或几乎全部主力舰
259
00:09:22,299 --> 00:09:25,179
但数据显示中央司令部实际上表示
260
00:09:25,179 --> 00:09:29,470
我们已摧毁伊朗海军92%的大型舰艇
261
00:09:29,830 --> 00:09:33,490
这可能留下大量小型舰艇
262
00:09:33,490 --> 00:09:35,379
鉴于他们并未提及这一点
263
00:09:35,379 --> 00:09:37,600
这与我们今早得到的数据一致
264
00:09:37,600 --> 00:09:39,639
表明我们实际上只摧毁了
265
00:09:39,639 --> 00:09:45,190
可能仅摧毁了伊朗三分之一的导弹发射能力
266
00:09:45,190 --> 00:09:48,070
以袭击以色列或海湾盟友
267
00:09:48,350 --> 00:09:52,830
这完全与四周前宣传的相反
268
00:09:52,830 --> 00:09:53,450
我们被宣传
269
00:09:53,450 --> 00:09:55,129
我们将彻底摧毁他们
270
00:09:55,129 --> 00:09:57,669
这将很快结束
271
00:09:57,669 --> 00:09:59,110
事实上已经结束
272
00:09:59,110 --> 00:10:00,750
我现在就可以宣布胜利
273
00:10:00,750 --> 00:10:02,240
如果我想的话
274
00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:04,539
而四周过去了
275
00:10:04,539 --> 00:10:06,460
局势反而更糟
276
00:10:06,460 --> 00:10:08,480
不仅没有好转,真是
277
00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:11,759
伊朗仍保留显著作战能力
278
00:10:11,759 --> 00:10:12,720
这太出乎意料了
279
00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:15,349
一个比乌克兰大三倍的国家
280
00:10:15,349 --> 00:10:20,948
拥有8000万人口仍能
281
00:10:20,948 --> 00:10:21,269
呃
282
00:10:21,269 --> 00:10:23,399
承受住我们的打击
283
00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:24,779
不仅如此
284
00:10:24,779 --> 00:10:26,940
他们还保持进攻能力
285
00:10:26,940 --> 00:10:31,759
伊朗现在可能已具备
286
00:10:31,759 --> 00:10:36,679
通过两伊战争遗留的
287
00:10:36,679 --> 00:10:41,480
加上约18万伊斯兰革命卫队成员
288
00:10:42,059 --> 00:10:45,740
这是一支十万人也难以抗衡的强大力量
289
00:10:45,740 --> 00:10:47,480
即使算上我们地区所有驻军
290
00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:48,580
总数约50万
291
00:10:48,580 --> 00:10:49,840
加上约10-15万
292
00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:51,299
我们正在向该地区派遣
293
00:10:51,299 --> 00:10:55,500
我们兵力悬殊达12比1
294
00:10:55,500 --> 00:10:56,779
这不是零和博弈
295
00:10:56,779 --> 00:10:57,960
尽管如此
296
00:10:57,960 --> 00:11:03,480
甚至更糟的是美军正在部署
297
00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:06,779
在霍尔木兹海峡沿岸滩头
298
00:11:06,779 --> 00:11:07,960
伊朗境内
299
00:11:07,960 --> 00:11:09,059
因为再次
300
00:11:09,059 --> 00:11:10,960
他们究竟学到了什么
301
00:11:10,960 --> 00:11:14,259
过去二十多年里,正是当我们陷入这些陆地作战时
302
00:11:14,259 --> 00:11:16,620
他们只需要做到不输就能取胜
303
00:11:16,620 --> 00:11:20,240
我们终将耗尽鲜血与财富
304
00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:22,120
我们终将厌倦这种算计
305
00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:22,519
我们将会
306
00:11:22,519 --> 00:11:23,649
我们将直接撤离
307
00:11:23,649 --> 00:11:26,330
这将是送给伊朗人的黄金礼物
308
00:11:26,330 --> 00:11:27,090
而我祈祷
309
00:11:27,090 --> 00:11:29,529
特朗普总统足够明智不中此计
310
00:11:29,529 --> 00:11:31,289
无论身边谁在劝说
311
00:11:31,289 --> 00:11:31,870
嗯
312
00:11:31,870 --> 00:11:34,009
南希·麦斯和其他议员现身
313
00:11:34,009 --> 00:11:36,769
共和党议员现身表达他们的立场
314
00:11:36,769 --> 00:11:37,090
他们
315
00:11:37,090 --> 00:11:39,490
他们对这充满怀疑
316
00:11:39,490 --> 00:11:40,230
这让我有些希望
317
00:11:40,230 --> 00:11:42,200
因为这些人都在选票上
318
00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:43,279
到十一月
319
00:11:43,279 --> 00:11:45,860
他们知道会从选民那里听到意见
320
00:11:45,860 --> 00:11:48,700
所以我认为这就是人们所说的
321
00:11:48,700 --> 00:11:51,210
这根本撑不过中期选举
322
00:11:51,210 --> 00:11:51,850
嗯
323
00:11:51,850 --> 00:11:55,309
否则只会是特朗普政府的纯粹甩锅
324
00:11:55,309 --> 00:11:55,990
嗯
325
00:11:55,990 --> 00:11:58,470
现在这一切都不妙
326
00:11:58,470 --> 00:11:59,629
我们去看看吧
327
00:11:59,629 --> 00:12:01,110
我想展示给你看
328
00:12:01,110 --> 00:12:01,470
嗯
329
00:12:01,470 --> 00:12:03,830
这位人士也在建议
330
00:12:03,830 --> 00:12:04,590
但在展示之前
331
00:12:04,590 --> 00:12:06,149
我先快速提及我的Instagram
332
00:12:06,149 --> 00:12:07,250
如果你还没关注我
333
00:12:07,250 --> 00:12:10,889
去我的Instagram搜索meet kevin
334
00:12:10,889 --> 00:12:11,450
昨天
335
00:12:11,450 --> 00:12:13,210
我在4月3日发布了
336
00:12:13,210 --> 00:12:17,330
乐高即将推出马里奥卡路易吉版本
337
00:12:17,330 --> 00:12:18,649
这令人兴奋
338
00:12:18,649 --> 00:12:19,818
对此非常期待
339
00:12:19,818 --> 00:12:21,658
我也发布了
340
00:12:21,658 --> 00:12:22,599
嗯
341
00:12:22,599 --> 00:12:25,099
有人送我这个礼物非常贴心
342
00:12:25,099 --> 00:12:27,298
有人递给我
343
00:12:27,298 --> 00:12:30,230
在宝可梦店给杰克一个宝可梦罐
344
00:12:30,230 --> 00:12:32,839
在潘纳马尔昨天
345
00:12:32,999 --> 00:12:34,938
现金卡或其他称呼
346
00:12:34,938 --> 00:12:39,039
他从中抽出了63号卡
347
00:12:39,039 --> 00:12:40,379
这太疯狂了
348
00:12:40,379 --> 00:12:42,460
这简直不可思议
349
00:12:42,460 --> 00:12:43,330
所以我说
350
00:12:43,544 --> 00:12:45,129
杰克做到了
351
00:12:46,970 --> 00:12:49,730
但昨天宝可梦彻底碾压了
352
00:12:49,730 --> 00:12:51,070
但什么没能阻止它
353
00:12:51,070 --> 00:12:51,649
呃
354
00:12:51,649 --> 00:12:52,129
嗯
355
00:12:52,129 --> 00:12:52,649
呃
356
00:12:52,649 --> 00:12:54,259
我们对石油的控制
357
00:12:54,259 --> 00:12:55,700
所以我回到这边
358
00:12:55,700 --> 00:12:58,440
石油的问题在于
359
00:12:58,440 --> 00:13:01,000
基本上这个人
360
00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:01,320
本质上
361
00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:03,080
我来给你总结一下
362
00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:03,580
好的
363
00:13:03,580 --> 00:13:06,539
他是这篇名为《升级陷阱》文章的作者
364
00:13:06,539 --> 00:13:10,379
他指出美国四十多年来
365
00:13:10,379 --> 00:13:15,399
一直在试图削弱伊朗对海湾石油运输的控制
366
00:13:15,399 --> 00:13:16,000
嗯
367
00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:19,399
我们现在展示的是通过武力
368
00:13:19,399 --> 00:13:22,129
我们实际上无法控制海湾
369
00:13:22,129 --> 00:13:25,610
猜猜谁真正掌控了海湾
370
00:13:25,610 --> 00:13:29,269
伊朗 所以你们现在颜面尽失
371
00:13:29,269 --> 00:13:30,769
基本上在美国
372
00:13:30,769 --> 00:13:35,690
你们原本想避免的事情反而成了现实
373
00:13:35,690 --> 00:13:38,240
伊朗掌控了局势
374
00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:39,059
呃
375
00:13:39,059 --> 00:13:40,840
这不是人们想要的结果
376
00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:42,029
这不是目标
377
00:13:42,029 --> 00:13:46,230
如果结合乔·肯特所说的
378
00:13:46,230 --> 00:13:52,250
坦率地说 我们在该地区部署军队并不明智
379
00:13:52,250 --> 00:13:56,230
占领岛屿或其他行动 只会让目标成为活靶子
380
00:13:56,230 --> 00:13:58,820
而现在
381
00:13:58,820 --> 00:14:04,429
还需记住特朗普废除了伊朗核协议
382
00:14:04,429 --> 00:14:08,330
2015年奥巴马谈判的伊朗核协议
383
00:14:08,330 --> 00:14:11,710
许多人认为他纯粹因为讨厌奥巴马
384
00:14:11,710 --> 00:14:16,070
该协议限制伊朗铀浓缩十五年
385
00:14:16,070 --> 00:14:18,309
并设定了其他项目的五年限制
386
00:14:18,309 --> 00:14:19,679
呃 资产
387
00:14:19,679 --> 00:14:22,320
部分伊朗资产也被归还
388
00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:24,080
这也是人们产生误解的原因
389
00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:27,700
人们误以为美国向伊朗提供了数十亿美元
390
00:14:27,700 --> 00:14:29,250
这是特朗普常用的论点
391
00:14:29,250 --> 00:14:32,849
实际情况是被扣押的伊朗资产
392
00:14:32,849 --> 00:14:34,408
美国表示
393
00:14:34,408 --> 00:14:37,240
我们愿意归还部分资产
394
00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:40,519
如果你们同意接受武器检查和限制
395
00:14:40,519 --> 00:14:42,039
特朗普毁掉了这项协议
396
00:14:42,039 --> 00:14:44,409
因为他声称要为我们争取更好协议
397
00:14:44,409 --> 00:14:46,090
但他从未兑现承诺
398
00:14:46,090 --> 00:14:48,789
因为2018年他无法与伊朗谈判
399
00:14:48,789 --> 00:14:51,839
当时他正忙于与中国和中国剑计划打交道
400
00:14:51,839 --> 00:14:52,519
钢铁之泪
401
00:14:52,519 --> 00:14:53,798
钢铝阳台
402
00:14:53,798 --> 00:14:55,100
然后击中要害
403
00:14:55,100 --> 00:14:55,539
然后
404
00:14:55,539 --> 00:14:56,740
乔·拜登来了
405
00:14:56,740 --> 00:14:59,320
他试图公平地与伊朗达成协议
406
00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:00,500
结果又失败了
407
00:15:02,440 --> 00:15:02,659
好的
408
00:15:02,659 --> 00:15:03,259
我向你保证
409
00:15:03,259 --> 00:15:06,259
我同样批评所有政客
410
00:15:06,259 --> 00:15:06,659
昨天
411
00:15:06,659 --> 00:15:08,620
我在 freaking 宝可梦店
412
00:15:08,620 --> 00:15:10,659
两位女士走了过来
413
00:15:10,659 --> 00:15:11,659
好心人
414
00:15:11,659 --> 00:15:12,740
就像凯文
415
00:15:12,740 --> 00:15:13,940
你什么时候再参选
416
00:15:13,940 --> 00:15:14,879
而我则
417
00:15:14,879 --> 00:15:17,940
我现在不想谈政治
418
00:15:17,940 --> 00:15:19,940
好吧,我感激你的关心
419
00:15:19,940 --> 00:15:22,759
但我现在完全脱离政治
420
00:15:22,759 --> 00:15:25,120
因为现在太有毒了
421
00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:26,419
现在情况太糟糕了
422
00:15:26,419 --> 00:15:26,799
呃
423
00:15:26,799 --> 00:15:27,500
不过话说回来
424
00:15:27,500 --> 00:15:30,059
至少2015年的核协议内容
425
00:15:30,059 --> 00:15:33,480
是国际原子能机构监督核武器
426
00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:34,700
而现在我们失去了这个
427
00:15:34,700 --> 00:15:36,460
所以你们从
428
00:15:36,460 --> 00:15:38,879
我们知道你们有多少浓缩铀
429
00:15:38,879 --> 00:15:40,139
也知道它们的位置
430
00:15:40,139 --> 00:15:42,039
并能监控伊朗的行动
431
00:15:42,039 --> 00:15:46,059
并对反应堆产生的重水有严格限制
432
00:15:46,059 --> 00:15:47,399
以及你们能做什么
433
00:15:47,399 --> 00:15:48,799
我们都能全程监控
434
00:15:48,799 --> 00:15:49,600
所以你们不能
435
00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:50,600
你知道的
436
00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:52,200
基本上储存武器级
437
00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:53,100
钚
438
00:15:53,100 --> 00:15:53,480
呃
439
00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:53,799
你知道的
440
00:15:53,799 --> 00:15:56,320
核过程的副产品
441
00:15:56,690 --> 00:15:59,230
现在我们从
442
00:15:59,230 --> 00:16:01,110
拥有全部信息到现在
443
00:16:01,110 --> 00:16:02,149
完全失去信息
444
00:16:02,149 --> 00:16:03,750
然后唐纳德·特朗普说
445
00:16:03,750 --> 00:16:05,269
既然看不到任何情况
446
00:16:05,269 --> 00:16:06,870
我们假设他们拥有核武器
447
00:16:06,870 --> 00:16:07,980
那就发动攻击
448
00:16:07,980 --> 00:16:11,389
就像之前我们拥有全部视野
449
00:16:11,389 --> 00:16:11,950
是的
450
00:16:11,950 --> 00:16:13,850
你从未达成新的协议
451
00:16:13,850 --> 00:16:16,009
所以你实际上把我们逼到了这个境地
452
00:16:16,009 --> 00:16:20,419
很多人都说这正是杰拉德
453
00:16:20,419 --> 00:16:24,068
库什纳和以色列人一开始就想要的
454
00:16:24,068 --> 00:16:25,509
他们精心策划了这一切
455
00:16:25,509 --> 00:16:28,349
内塔尼亚胡和以色列人打的是持久战
456
00:16:28,349 --> 00:16:29,188
他们清楚地知道
457
00:16:29,188 --> 00:16:29,688
而我并不
458
00:16:29,688 --> 00:16:30,528
我什么都没说
459
00:16:30,528 --> 00:16:32,229
这里不讨论支持或反对以色列
460
00:16:32,229 --> 00:16:32,349
好的
461
00:16:32,349 --> 00:16:33,289
我只是说
462
00:16:33,289 --> 00:16:35,450
内塔尼亚胡与特朗普打持久战
463
00:16:35,450 --> 00:16:36,730
意识到啊
464
00:16:36,730 --> 00:16:39,129
如果唐纳德·特朗普毁掉JCPOA协议
465
00:16:39,129 --> 00:16:43,919
最终美国将无法监控那些核储备
466
00:16:43,919 --> 00:16:45,720
我们将不得不进行联合入侵
467
00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:47,519
这似乎正是情况
468
00:16:47,519 --> 00:16:48,500
我们现在正在布局
469
00:16:48,500 --> 00:16:50,379
这简直太糟糕了
470
00:16:50,379 --> 00:16:53,960
因为战争本来就令人厌恶
471
00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:54,399
去找我
472
00:16:54,399 --> 00:16:55,240
凯文来评论
473
00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:56,840
使用这个优惠券
474
00:16:56,840 --> 00:16:59,000
优惠码其实是flip flop
475
00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:01,929
多亏了特朗普的朝令夕改
476
00:17:01,929 --> 00:17:04,990
你可以每天加入那个阿尔法报告
477
00:17:04,990 --> 00:17:05,910
市场已开盘
478
00:17:05,910 --> 00:17:06,970
期待在那里见到你
479
00:17:06,970 --> 00:17:07,450
非常感谢
480
00:17:07,450 --> 00:17:08,250
再见再见
481
00:17:08,250 --> 00:17:08,880
不进行广告
482
00:17:08,880 --> 00:17:10,240
你在这里告诉我们的这些事
483
00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:12,000
我觉得没人知道这件事
484
00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:14,279
我们尝试一点广告看看效果
485
00:17:14,279 --> 00:17:15,200
恭喜兄弟
486
00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:16,000
你做得太多了
487
00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:16,839
大家都喜欢你
488
00:17:16,839 --> 00:17:17,759
大家都敬佩你
489
00:17:17,759 --> 00:17:18,640
凯文·帕弗拉特
490
00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:21,240
这位金融分析师和YouTuber凯文
491
00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:22,640
很高兴听到你的观点