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【Meet Kevin】黄金、美债、股市全线通杀,纳指正式进入回调

BV13mXGBWEeC · 浑水摸鱼清源
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学习笔记

基于字幕生成,时间引用会以小徽标显示。
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资料区

原始字幕、评论和弹幕默认折叠,作为学习核查材料。
原始字幕
1
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啊,糟了

2
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唐纳德·特朗普谈到要在中东增派一万兵力

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00:00:05,419 --> 00:00:08,660
但这不是市场今日抛售的唯一原因

4
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我们将逐一解析

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我们不仅面临美联储的担忧

6
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还存在军队成为活靶的困境

7
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或者中东成为一群活靶

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不过不得不说

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但美联储加息预期

10
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请看这个

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这是十二月的美联储加息预期

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二零二六年九月

13
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这里显示

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表明约60%共识认为今年不会调整利率

15
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好的

16
00:00:37,630 --> 00:00:38,250
通常来说

17
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以及今年初的情况

18
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是我们预期全年将实施两次降息

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没错

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是的但

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如果你注意这个柱状图左侧

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00:00:47,590 --> 00:00:53,768
因为市场已将今年单次降息概率定为零

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反而定价三次

24
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有2%概率一次加息

25
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6.2%概率两次加息

26
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甚至0.5%概率三次加息

27
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当综合这些累积效应

28
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到十二月全年加息概率达39.3%

29
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这对市场流动性不利

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近期所有问题都围绕流动性

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如果你想知道的话

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凯文嘿

33
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你知道你曾预测凯文·沃什当选后黄金见顶

34
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但为何在地缘政治问题中黄金却下跌

35
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这很奇怪

36
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这与私募信贷市场的问题相同

37
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同样出现在黄金市场的困境

38
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同样存在于国债市场

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同样反映在股市

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所有问题都与L词相关

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不是loser流动性

42
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听高盛怎么说

43
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昨日又有新国债拍卖

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国债拍卖

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也暗示流动性不足

46
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这感觉有些不对劲

47
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更清晰的解释是跨资产流动性抽离

48
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若产油国无法套现油流

49
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需在其他领域筹措现金

50
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这可能引发利率相关资产同步抛售

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股票和黄金

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这是一个不可持续的均衡状态

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换句话说

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没有人有钱继续消费

55
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因为太棒了

56
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也许我们正在意识到保证金水平

57
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这些是净多头保证金水平

58
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达到三倍

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比2021年牛市期间的最高水平高6%

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这不是好事

61
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也许大家都在押注特朗普塔可

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解放日后在保证金上加杠杆

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为下一次大崩盘埋下隐患

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傻瓜

65
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现在流动性解释了为何我们面临全面痛苦

66
00:03:01,938 --> 00:03:04,080
但为何情况恶化

67
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这其中很多

68
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当然与特朗普有关

69
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关于向伊朗部署1万部队的情况

70
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成为活靶子的潜在泥潭

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稍后详细讨论

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正如乔肯特正在谈论的

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我们十年期国债在盘前有所回调

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这在我们今早的阿尔法报告中提到

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在我们的阿尔法报告中

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我们指出

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关注十年期国债从4.4%

78
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我们在盘前所处的水平

79
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回落至4.4%

80
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4.3%

81
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我们现在在4.43%

82
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这非常棒

83
00:03:35,939 --> 00:03:38,259
但仍导致最高房贷利率

84
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过去约六个月

85
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不幸的是利率越高

86
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私人信贷等领域的流动性问题越严重

87
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现在请观看乔肯特的视频

88
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因为它真正反映了我们可能面临的挑战

89
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我们将观看这段视频

90
00:03:56,889 --> 00:03:58,270
但我想展示

91
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我们在阿尔法报告中做出的几个预测

92
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就在几天前

93
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请看这个

94
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我们看空特朗普行情

95
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这不是一页

96
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这只是让你学习的机会

97
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我的目标是通过这个频道教你

98
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让你了解视角

99
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我们了解特朗普行情

100
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我们在频道上一直在讨论

101
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因此在周二到周三期间看空很容易

102
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你知道的

103
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从周二到周三开始

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周四到周五我们就会看到

105
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我们可能会继续下跌

106
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因为特朗普局势升级将在周四到周五显现

107
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果然如此

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我们不仅看到伞兵部队部署

109
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现在又有约一万新增部队部署于边境墙

110
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《华尔街日报》报道

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这将部署在

112
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除了两栖部队之外

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美国海军提普顿号

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今日抵达

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嗯

116
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然后

117
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当然

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呃

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第二批

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呃

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两栖部队

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将在约一周或两周后抵达

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我们可能新增一万部队进入该地区

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不过暂且不提

125
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因此我们对周四到周五走势看空

126
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这迄今为止是个精准预测

127
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我们关注QQ指数577点压力位

128
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Q

129
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若跌破577点将转为看空

130
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这对纳斯达克已是修正区间

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值得注意的是

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我们昨日已跌破577点

133
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这标志着纳斯达克正式进入

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100点修正

135
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我们每日都在强调

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股市每次反弹都在快速消退

137
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这很常见

138
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交易者入场

139
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试图获利

140
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但实际很难把握这些反弹行情

141
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因为随后就是更多抛售

142
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仅能获得5到10分钟的 rally

143
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然后就结束了

144
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接着继续下跌

145
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这已成为规律

146
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因此向上交易非常困难

147
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向下交易则容易得多

148
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说到看空交易

149
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闪迪公司

150
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昨日早盘我们发出看空信号

151
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或称为沙盘和美光的看跌动能

152
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美光昨日下跌约5%

153
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沙盘昨日暴跌11%

154
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我做出这一判断的原因之一是

155
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当然因为谷歌的研究

156
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所以你知道的

157
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我想你并不知道

158
00:06:00,519 --> 00:06:01,720
我在水晶球中窥探

159
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我们认为这是基本面研究并将其纳入我们的阿尔法报告

160
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每天开盘前

161
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请记住你可以获取这些信息

162
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我们即将发放下一期息票

163
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到期日期为三月

164
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三十一日

165
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可在meekevin.com获取

166
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我们在昨日开盘前阿尔法报告中提及的另一件事

167
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是vcx即将崩盘

168
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我甚至给它设定了20美元的目标价

169
00:06:21,160 --> 00:06:24,019
而昨日早盘时股价约500美元

170
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就在昨日

171
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股价暴跌50%

172
00:06:28,360 --> 00:06:30,540
昨日单日暴跌50%

173
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我们做出了这一预测

174
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嗯

175
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就在盘前阶段

176
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当时股价停留在400美元

177
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猜猜这是什么

178
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大约430美元左右

179
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好吧

180
00:06:38,759 --> 00:06:40,749
从430美元左右回落

181
00:06:40,749 --> 00:06:42,249
我们看到前一日的高点

182
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昨日单日暴跌超50%

183
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跌至182美元

184
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今日再跌3%

185
00:06:47,228 --> 00:06:49,120
7%跌幅

186
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这是我们两天前盘前做出的预测

187
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已记录在案

188
00:06:52,319 --> 00:06:53,360
你可以查看相关记录

189
00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:55,720
我们对IQ进行了基本面分析

190
00:06:55,720 --> 00:06:58,480
揭示了IQ基本面的真相

191
00:06:58,480 --> 00:07:02,620
进一步分析兰纳、联邦快递、超微、Rivian和Swarmer

192
00:07:02,620 --> 00:07:05,040
当特斯拉开始跌至400美元时

193
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我们建议采用347策略应对特斯拉

194
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效果不佳

195
00:07:08,620 --> 00:07:09,899
正朝该方向发展

196
00:07:09,899 --> 00:07:12,300
但让我们暂时聚焦伊朗

197
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肯特先生有何看法肯

198
00:07:15,189 --> 00:07:17,149
反恐行动

199
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执行者

200
00:07:18,629 --> 00:07:20,168
若由唐纳德·特朗普担任

201
00:07:20,168 --> 00:07:22,420
谁在之后辞职了

202
00:07:22,420 --> 00:07:23,180
呃

203
00:07:23,180 --> 00:07:24,079
唐纳德·特朗普

204
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你启动了不发动新战争的承诺

205
00:07:26,899 --> 00:07:30,720
他强烈反对发动新战争

206
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呃

207
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他的论点是我们正在部署部队成为活靶子

208
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鉴于我们看到更多带有实际兵力调动的升级行动

209
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不是特朗普说的那样

210
00:07:45,288 --> 00:07:47,168
而是特朗普实际做的那样

211
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从敌人的眼中看,这并不像好事

212
00:07:51,048 --> 00:07:52,129
所以如果我是伊朗

213
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现在最好的礼物就是拥有海军陆战队和空降兵

214
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降落

215
00:07:56,860 --> 00:07:57,379
呃

216
00:07:57,379 --> 00:07:59,220
或者夺取这些岛屿中的任何一个海滩

217
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我无所谓

218
00:07:59,660 --> 00:08:00,240
不管哪个

219
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我会让他们进来

220
00:08:01,689 --> 00:08:04,930
然后我会非常明确地表明

221
00:08:04,930 --> 00:08:06,870
但通过使用采矿技术

222
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通过使用弹道导弹

223
00:08:08,230 --> 00:08:09,649
通过使用无人机群

224
00:08:09,649 --> 00:08:11,629
他们现在成了我们的人质

225
00:08:11,629 --> 00:08:14,829
嗯,所以这应该还记得昨天

226
00:08:14,829 --> 00:08:16,050
我们之前谈到的关于

227
00:08:16,050 --> 00:08:16,389
呃

228
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第一人称视角

229
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光纤操控无人机

230
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这些现在正在黎巴嫩对以色列的冲突中使用

231
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由真主党

232
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真主党

233
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开始使用它们

234
00:08:27,009 --> 00:08:30,449
显然在俄罗斯与乌克兰冲突中被普及

235
00:08:30,449 --> 00:08:35,169
这种二十英里杀伤区,我们直接四次行动

236
00:08:35,169 --> 00:08:38,330
正是光纤引导无人机的理想宽度

237
00:08:38,330 --> 00:08:39,429
战略灾难

238
00:08:39,429 --> 00:08:39,809
说实话

239
00:08:39,809 --> 00:08:40,668
我认为

240
00:08:40,668 --> 00:08:41,788
如果如果那个嗯

241
00:08:41,788 --> 00:08:45,399
伊朗人很聪明,他们聪明到会让我们占领这座岛屿

242
00:08:45,399 --> 00:08:46,219
他们会让我们像这样

243
00:08:46,219 --> 00:08:46,558
你知道的

244
00:08:46,558 --> 00:08:49,619
制作一段胜利视频,展示我们现在掌控了炼油设施

245
00:08:49,619 --> 00:08:50,458
这完全是博眼球的把戏

246
00:08:50,458 --> 00:08:51,649
而且海峡已经开放

247
00:08:51,649 --> 00:08:54,250
然后我会非常非常清楚地

248
00:08:54,250 --> 00:08:57,690
迅速而有力地表明他们实际上并不控制这片海域

249
00:08:57,690 --> 00:08:58,509
我会使用无人机

250
00:08:58,509 --> 00:09:00,289
使用我们已知他们拥有的弹道武器

251
00:09:00,289 --> 00:09:10,009
我认为人们严重低估了小型舰艇在战争中的作用

252
00:09:10,009 --> 00:09:10,729
呃

253
00:09:10,729 --> 00:09:11,048
你知道的

254
00:09:11,048 --> 00:09:13,789
昨天美军中央司令部

255
00:09:13,789 --> 00:09:16,289
随后是唐纳德·特朗普

256
00:09:16,289 --> 00:09:17,590
JD·万斯和马可·卢比奥

257
00:09:17,590 --> 00:09:18,629
我们都在吹嘘如何

258
00:09:18,629 --> 00:09:22,299
已摧毁伊朗海军92%或几乎全部主力舰

259
00:09:22,299 --> 00:09:25,179
但数据显示中央司令部实际上表示

260
00:09:25,179 --> 00:09:29,470
我们已摧毁伊朗海军92%的大型舰艇

261
00:09:29,830 --> 00:09:33,490
这可能留下大量小型舰艇

262
00:09:33,490 --> 00:09:35,379
鉴于他们并未提及这一点

263
00:09:35,379 --> 00:09:37,600
这与我们今早得到的数据一致

264
00:09:37,600 --> 00:09:39,639
表明我们实际上只摧毁了

265
00:09:39,639 --> 00:09:45,190
可能仅摧毁了伊朗三分之一的导弹发射能力

266
00:09:45,190 --> 00:09:48,070
以袭击以色列或海湾盟友

267
00:09:48,350 --> 00:09:52,830
这完全与四周前宣传的相反

268
00:09:52,830 --> 00:09:53,450
我们被宣传

269
00:09:53,450 --> 00:09:55,129
我们将彻底摧毁他们

270
00:09:55,129 --> 00:09:57,669
这将很快结束

271
00:09:57,669 --> 00:09:59,110
事实上已经结束

272
00:09:59,110 --> 00:10:00,750
我现在就可以宣布胜利

273
00:10:00,750 --> 00:10:02,240
如果我想的话

274
00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:04,539
而四周过去了

275
00:10:04,539 --> 00:10:06,460
局势反而更糟

276
00:10:06,460 --> 00:10:08,480
不仅没有好转,真是

277
00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:11,759
伊朗仍保留显著作战能力

278
00:10:11,759 --> 00:10:12,720
这太出乎意料了

279
00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:15,349
一个比乌克兰大三倍的国家

280
00:10:15,349 --> 00:10:20,948
拥有8000万人口仍能

281
00:10:20,948 --> 00:10:21,269
呃

282
00:10:21,269 --> 00:10:23,399
承受住我们的打击

283
00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:24,779
不仅如此

284
00:10:24,779 --> 00:10:26,940
他们还保持进攻能力

285
00:10:26,940 --> 00:10:31,759
伊朗现在可能已具备

286
00:10:31,759 --> 00:10:36,679
通过两伊战争遗留的

287
00:10:36,679 --> 00:10:41,480
加上约18万伊斯兰革命卫队成员

288
00:10:42,059 --> 00:10:45,740
这是一支十万人也难以抗衡的强大力量

289
00:10:45,740 --> 00:10:47,480
即使算上我们地区所有驻军

290
00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:48,580
总数约50万

291
00:10:48,580 --> 00:10:49,840
加上约10-15万

292
00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:51,299
我们正在向该地区派遣

293
00:10:51,299 --> 00:10:55,500
我们兵力悬殊达12比1

294
00:10:55,500 --> 00:10:56,779
这不是零和博弈

295
00:10:56,779 --> 00:10:57,960
尽管如此

296
00:10:57,960 --> 00:11:03,480
甚至更糟的是美军正在部署

297
00:11:03,480 --> 00:11:06,779
在霍尔木兹海峡沿岸滩头

298
00:11:06,779 --> 00:11:07,960
伊朗境内

299
00:11:07,960 --> 00:11:09,059
因为再次

300
00:11:09,059 --> 00:11:10,960
他们究竟学到了什么

301
00:11:10,960 --> 00:11:14,259
过去二十多年里,正是当我们陷入这些陆地作战时

302
00:11:14,259 --> 00:11:16,620
他们只需要做到不输就能取胜

303
00:11:16,620 --> 00:11:20,240
我们终将耗尽鲜血与财富

304
00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:22,120
我们终将厌倦这种算计

305
00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:22,519
我们将会

306
00:11:22,519 --> 00:11:23,649
我们将直接撤离

307
00:11:23,649 --> 00:11:26,330
这将是送给伊朗人的黄金礼物

308
00:11:26,330 --> 00:11:27,090
而我祈祷

309
00:11:27,090 --> 00:11:29,529
特朗普总统足够明智不中此计

310
00:11:29,529 --> 00:11:31,289
无论身边谁在劝说

311
00:11:31,289 --> 00:11:31,870
嗯

312
00:11:31,870 --> 00:11:34,009
南希·麦斯和其他议员现身

313
00:11:34,009 --> 00:11:36,769
共和党议员现身表达他们的立场

314
00:11:36,769 --> 00:11:37,090
他们

315
00:11:37,090 --> 00:11:39,490
他们对这充满怀疑

316
00:11:39,490 --> 00:11:40,230
这让我有些希望

317
00:11:40,230 --> 00:11:42,200
因为这些人都在选票上

318
00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:43,279
到十一月

319
00:11:43,279 --> 00:11:45,860
他们知道会从选民那里听到意见

320
00:11:45,860 --> 00:11:48,700
所以我认为这就是人们所说的

321
00:11:48,700 --> 00:11:51,210
这根本撑不过中期选举

322
00:11:51,210 --> 00:11:51,850
嗯

323
00:11:51,850 --> 00:11:55,309
否则只会是特朗普政府的纯粹甩锅

324
00:11:55,309 --> 00:11:55,990
嗯

325
00:11:55,990 --> 00:11:58,470
现在这一切都不妙

326
00:11:58,470 --> 00:11:59,629
我们去看看吧

327
00:11:59,629 --> 00:12:01,110
我想展示给你看

328
00:12:01,110 --> 00:12:01,470
嗯

329
00:12:01,470 --> 00:12:03,830
这位人士也在建议

330
00:12:03,830 --> 00:12:04,590
但在展示之前

331
00:12:04,590 --> 00:12:06,149
我先快速提及我的Instagram

332
00:12:06,149 --> 00:12:07,250
如果你还没关注我

333
00:12:07,250 --> 00:12:10,889
去我的Instagram搜索meet kevin

334
00:12:10,889 --> 00:12:11,450
昨天

335
00:12:11,450 --> 00:12:13,210
我在4月3日发布了

336
00:12:13,210 --> 00:12:17,330
乐高即将推出马里奥卡路易吉版本

337
00:12:17,330 --> 00:12:18,649
这令人兴奋

338
00:12:18,649 --> 00:12:19,818
对此非常期待

339
00:12:19,818 --> 00:12:21,658
我也发布了

340
00:12:21,658 --> 00:12:22,599
嗯

341
00:12:22,599 --> 00:12:25,099
有人送我这个礼物非常贴心

342
00:12:25,099 --> 00:12:27,298
有人递给我

343
00:12:27,298 --> 00:12:30,230
在宝可梦店给杰克一个宝可梦罐

344
00:12:30,230 --> 00:12:32,839
在潘纳马尔昨天

345
00:12:32,999 --> 00:12:34,938
现金卡或其他称呼

346
00:12:34,938 --> 00:12:39,039
他从中抽出了63号卡

347
00:12:39,039 --> 00:12:40,379
这太疯狂了

348
00:12:40,379 --> 00:12:42,460
这简直不可思议

349
00:12:42,460 --> 00:12:43,330
所以我说

350
00:12:43,544 --> 00:12:45,129
杰克做到了

351
00:12:46,970 --> 00:12:49,730
但昨天宝可梦彻底碾压了

352
00:12:49,730 --> 00:12:51,070
但什么没能阻止它

353
00:12:51,070 --> 00:12:51,649
呃

354
00:12:51,649 --> 00:12:52,129
嗯

355
00:12:52,129 --> 00:12:52,649
呃

356
00:12:52,649 --> 00:12:54,259
我们对石油的控制

357
00:12:54,259 --> 00:12:55,700
所以我回到这边

358
00:12:55,700 --> 00:12:58,440
石油的问题在于

359
00:12:58,440 --> 00:13:01,000
基本上这个人

360
00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:01,320
本质上

361
00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:03,080
我来给你总结一下

362
00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:03,580
好的

363
00:13:03,580 --> 00:13:06,539
他是这篇名为《升级陷阱》文章的作者

364
00:13:06,539 --> 00:13:10,379
他指出美国四十多年来

365
00:13:10,379 --> 00:13:15,399
一直在试图削弱伊朗对海湾石油运输的控制

366
00:13:15,399 --> 00:13:16,000
嗯

367
00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:19,399
我们现在展示的是通过武力

368
00:13:19,399 --> 00:13:22,129
我们实际上无法控制海湾

369
00:13:22,129 --> 00:13:25,610
猜猜谁真正掌控了海湾

370
00:13:25,610 --> 00:13:29,269
伊朗 所以你们现在颜面尽失

371
00:13:29,269 --> 00:13:30,769
基本上在美国

372
00:13:30,769 --> 00:13:35,690
你们原本想避免的事情反而成了现实

373
00:13:35,690 --> 00:13:38,240
伊朗掌控了局势

374
00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:39,059
呃

375
00:13:39,059 --> 00:13:40,840
这不是人们想要的结果

376
00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:42,029
这不是目标

377
00:13:42,029 --> 00:13:46,230
如果结合乔·肯特所说的

378
00:13:46,230 --> 00:13:52,250
坦率地说 我们在该地区部署军队并不明智

379
00:13:52,250 --> 00:13:56,230
占领岛屿或其他行动 只会让目标成为活靶子

380
00:13:56,230 --> 00:13:58,820
而现在

381
00:13:58,820 --> 00:14:04,429
还需记住特朗普废除了伊朗核协议

382
00:14:04,429 --> 00:14:08,330
2015年奥巴马谈判的伊朗核协议

383
00:14:08,330 --> 00:14:11,710
许多人认为他纯粹因为讨厌奥巴马

384
00:14:11,710 --> 00:14:16,070
该协议限制伊朗铀浓缩十五年

385
00:14:16,070 --> 00:14:18,309
并设定了其他项目的五年限制

386
00:14:18,309 --> 00:14:19,679
呃 资产

387
00:14:19,679 --> 00:14:22,320
部分伊朗资产也被归还

388
00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:24,080
这也是人们产生误解的原因

389
00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:27,700
人们误以为美国向伊朗提供了数十亿美元

390
00:14:27,700 --> 00:14:29,250
这是特朗普常用的论点

391
00:14:29,250 --> 00:14:32,849
实际情况是被扣押的伊朗资产

392
00:14:32,849 --> 00:14:34,408
美国表示

393
00:14:34,408 --> 00:14:37,240
我们愿意归还部分资产

394
00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:40,519
如果你们同意接受武器检查和限制

395
00:14:40,519 --> 00:14:42,039
特朗普毁掉了这项协议

396
00:14:42,039 --> 00:14:44,409
因为他声称要为我们争取更好协议

397
00:14:44,409 --> 00:14:46,090
但他从未兑现承诺

398
00:14:46,090 --> 00:14:48,789
因为2018年他无法与伊朗谈判

399
00:14:48,789 --> 00:14:51,839
当时他正忙于与中国和中国剑计划打交道

400
00:14:51,839 --> 00:14:52,519
钢铁之泪

401
00:14:52,519 --> 00:14:53,798
钢铝阳台

402
00:14:53,798 --> 00:14:55,100
然后击中要害

403
00:14:55,100 --> 00:14:55,539
然后

404
00:14:55,539 --> 00:14:56,740
乔·拜登来了

405
00:14:56,740 --> 00:14:59,320
他试图公平地与伊朗达成协议

406
00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:00,500
结果又失败了

407
00:15:02,440 --> 00:15:02,659
好的

408
00:15:02,659 --> 00:15:03,259
我向你保证

409
00:15:03,259 --> 00:15:06,259
我同样批评所有政客

410
00:15:06,259 --> 00:15:06,659
昨天

411
00:15:06,659 --> 00:15:08,620
我在 freaking 宝可梦店

412
00:15:08,620 --> 00:15:10,659
两位女士走了过来

413
00:15:10,659 --> 00:15:11,659
好心人

414
00:15:11,659 --> 00:15:12,740
就像凯文

415
00:15:12,740 --> 00:15:13,940
你什么时候再参选

416
00:15:13,940 --> 00:15:14,879
而我则

417
00:15:14,879 --> 00:15:17,940
我现在不想谈政治

418
00:15:17,940 --> 00:15:19,940
好吧,我感激你的关心

419
00:15:19,940 --> 00:15:22,759
但我现在完全脱离政治

420
00:15:22,759 --> 00:15:25,120
因为现在太有毒了

421
00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:26,419
现在情况太糟糕了

422
00:15:26,419 --> 00:15:26,799
呃

423
00:15:26,799 --> 00:15:27,500
不过话说回来

424
00:15:27,500 --> 00:15:30,059
至少2015年的核协议内容

425
00:15:30,059 --> 00:15:33,480
是国际原子能机构监督核武器

426
00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:34,700
而现在我们失去了这个

427
00:15:34,700 --> 00:15:36,460
所以你们从

428
00:15:36,460 --> 00:15:38,879
我们知道你们有多少浓缩铀

429
00:15:38,879 --> 00:15:40,139
也知道它们的位置

430
00:15:40,139 --> 00:15:42,039
并能监控伊朗的行动

431
00:15:42,039 --> 00:15:46,059
并对反应堆产生的重水有严格限制

432
00:15:46,059 --> 00:15:47,399
以及你们能做什么

433
00:15:47,399 --> 00:15:48,799
我们都能全程监控

434
00:15:48,799 --> 00:15:49,600
所以你们不能

435
00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:50,600
你知道的

436
00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:52,200
基本上储存武器级

437
00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:53,100
钚

438
00:15:53,100 --> 00:15:53,480
呃

439
00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:53,799
你知道的

440
00:15:53,799 --> 00:15:56,320
核过程的副产品

441
00:15:56,690 --> 00:15:59,230
现在我们从

442
00:15:59,230 --> 00:16:01,110
拥有全部信息到现在

443
00:16:01,110 --> 00:16:02,149
完全失去信息

444
00:16:02,149 --> 00:16:03,750
然后唐纳德·特朗普说

445
00:16:03,750 --> 00:16:05,269
既然看不到任何情况

446
00:16:05,269 --> 00:16:06,870
我们假设他们拥有核武器

447
00:16:06,870 --> 00:16:07,980
那就发动攻击

448
00:16:07,980 --> 00:16:11,389
就像之前我们拥有全部视野

449
00:16:11,389 --> 00:16:11,950
是的

450
00:16:11,950 --> 00:16:13,850
你从未达成新的协议

451
00:16:13,850 --> 00:16:16,009
所以你实际上把我们逼到了这个境地

452
00:16:16,009 --> 00:16:20,419
很多人都说这正是杰拉德

453
00:16:20,419 --> 00:16:24,068
库什纳和以色列人一开始就想要的

454
00:16:24,068 --> 00:16:25,509
他们精心策划了这一切

455
00:16:25,509 --> 00:16:28,349
内塔尼亚胡和以色列人打的是持久战

456
00:16:28,349 --> 00:16:29,188
他们清楚地知道

457
00:16:29,188 --> 00:16:29,688
而我并不

458
00:16:29,688 --> 00:16:30,528
我什么都没说

459
00:16:30,528 --> 00:16:32,229
这里不讨论支持或反对以色列

460
00:16:32,229 --> 00:16:32,349
好的

461
00:16:32,349 --> 00:16:33,289
我只是说

462
00:16:33,289 --> 00:16:35,450
内塔尼亚胡与特朗普打持久战

463
00:16:35,450 --> 00:16:36,730
意识到啊

464
00:16:36,730 --> 00:16:39,129
如果唐纳德·特朗普毁掉JCPOA协议

465
00:16:39,129 --> 00:16:43,919
最终美国将无法监控那些核储备

466
00:16:43,919 --> 00:16:45,720
我们将不得不进行联合入侵

467
00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:47,519
这似乎正是情况

468
00:16:47,519 --> 00:16:48,500
我们现在正在布局

469
00:16:48,500 --> 00:16:50,379
这简直太糟糕了

470
00:16:50,379 --> 00:16:53,960
因为战争本来就令人厌恶

471
00:16:53,960 --> 00:16:54,399
去找我

472
00:16:54,399 --> 00:16:55,240
凯文来评论

473
00:16:55,240 --> 00:16:56,840
使用这个优惠券

474
00:16:56,840 --> 00:16:59,000
优惠码其实是flip flop

475
00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:01,929
多亏了特朗普的朝令夕改

476
00:17:01,929 --> 00:17:04,990
你可以每天加入那个阿尔法报告

477
00:17:04,990 --> 00:17:05,910
市场已开盘

478
00:17:05,910 --> 00:17:06,970
期待在那里见到你

479
00:17:06,970 --> 00:17:07,450
非常感谢

480
00:17:07,450 --> 00:17:08,250
再见再见

481
00:17:08,250 --> 00:17:08,880
不进行广告

482
00:17:08,880 --> 00:17:10,240
你在这里告诉我们的这些事

483
00:17:10,240 --> 00:17:12,000
我觉得没人知道这件事

484
00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:14,279
我们尝试一点广告看看效果

485
00:17:14,279 --> 00:17:15,200
恭喜兄弟

486
00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:16,000
你做得太多了

487
00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:16,839
大家都喜欢你

488
00:17:16,839 --> 00:17:17,759
大家都敬佩你

489
00:17:17,759 --> 00:17:18,640
凯文·帕弗拉特

490
00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:21,240
这位金融分析师和YouTuber凯文

491
00:17:21,240 --> 00:17:22,640
很高兴听到你的观点
评论

共 3 条,按点赞数排序。

用户 内容 点赞 回复 时间
总结猫 @蚂蚁的秘密,喵,感谢召唤,总结猫来咯 [妙啊] 你好!我是总结猫。以下是为你整理的视频核心内容总结: 💡 一句话省流 市场当前正面临“流动性枯竭”与“地缘政治风险”的双重夹击:美联储加息预期意外重燃,叠加特朗普在中东增兵万人的潜在冲突风险,导致股市、黄金及国债同步承压,纳斯达克已正式进入修正区间。 📌 核心要点解析 1. 流动性危机(The "L" Word) • 美联储预期转向: 市场已清空今年降息的预期,反而开始定价加息。目前12月前加息的累计概率达39.3%,这对市场流动性造成极大伤害。 • 跨资产抛售: 流动性匮乏导致国债拍卖遇冷,产油国因需筹措现金而抛售其他资产,引发股票、黄金和国债的同步下跌。 • 杠杆风险: 当前净多头保证金水平比2021年牛市高点还高出6%,极高的杠杆率为未来的大崩盘埋下了隐患。 2. 中东局势与“活靶子”困境 • 增兵风险: 特朗普计划向中东增派1万名士兵。专家担忧在无人机群和弹道导弹技术普及的今天,部署地面部队和两栖部队可能使美军成为“活靶子”或“人质”。 • 情报真空: 视频批评特朗普此前废除伊朗核协议(JCPOA)导致美国失去了对伊朗核进程的监控视野,如今在缺乏情报的情况下盲目升级武力,可能陷入长期的战争泥潭。 3. 市场走势预测与技术面分析 • 个股表现: • 看空信号: 视频提到此前精准预测了超微电脑(SMCI)、美光(MU)的下跌,以及VCX单日暴跌50%的行情。 • 特斯拉(TSLA): 提到的“347策略”目前表现不佳,股价持续走弱。 • 交易策略: 当前市场反弹往往只能维持5-10分钟,向上交易极难,向下交易(看空)则顺应趋势。 4. 政治立场与社会观察 • 政治毒性: 凯文表示目前的政治环境过于“恶毒”,尽管有人支持,但他目前无意再次参选。 📉 总结猫建议 目前市场处于高杠杆、低流动性且地缘风险激增的敏感期。投资者需高度警惕保证金风险,关注十年期国债收益率的波动,短期内市场情绪偏向看空,反弹阻力巨大。 (提示:评论区字数有限,可在本条下继续追问。) 0 0 2026-03-28 16:10
蚂蚁的秘密 @总结猫 总结一下 0 0 2026-03-28 15:55
ppersimmonp @总结猫 总结一下,私信发送 0 0 2026-03-28 15:42
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