【NaNa说美股】20260218一会儿A一会儿V，就说刺不刺激吧！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是2月18号

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周三早盘时间

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由于VX2月期权期货到期结算后的对冲平仓

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做慈三平掉了空头头寸

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VIX大幅回落

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从而引发了QQ的空头回补式直线拉升

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到了下午一点后

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多头动能呢开始有所消退

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但还算是正常哈

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两点美联储会议纪要公布之后

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这个情况就发生了变化

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情绪呢就突然恶化了

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因为既要内容比市场预期的更为强硬

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直接打破了早盘有VX到期结算

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带来的反弹情绪

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既然内容显示多数FMC与会者表示

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如果通胀按预期下降

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进一步降息

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很可能是合适的

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但是通胀下2%目标迈进的进程

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可能比普遍预期的更缓慢

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更不均衡

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而且通胀持续高于目标的风险

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被评估为具有重要意义

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进一步降息的可能

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会削弱市场对通胀目标程度的认知

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他们支持对未来利率决议采用双向表述

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以反应

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如果通胀持续高于目标水平的话

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加息可能是适当的选择

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最后这一句话哈有点吓到市场了

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极具杀伤力啊

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因为市场原本的基准情景是继续降息嘛

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最坏的情景也只是利率按兵不动

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结果呢

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美联储居然把加息这个选项重新摆回了桌面上

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这种预期的彻底逆转还是市场最不喜欢的

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因为意味着市场的可预测性破裂

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所以QQQ就出现了一波急杀

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好在尾盘最后半小时又拉起来了

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不是因为市场已经消化了利空哈

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而是因为技术性平参与多头繁育

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今天是mix2月期权期货到期结算日嘛

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mix呢在会议纪要后啊

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又出现了一波反抽

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但是由于这个结算日做13

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当有动力将VX压制在相对稳定的区间

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已完成交割

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所以这又减弱了美股尾盘的杀跌动能

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还有毒

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苹果再次挺身救市

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当权重龙头不再下跌的时候

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指数被强行拉起是很容易的

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但是到了尾盘最后5分钟还是跳水

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这说明前半小时的拉升其实是虚的

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最后的下跌才是机构真实减仓

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许多短线护盘资金在看到苹果股价反弹

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无法收复50日均线时

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就选择在最后5分钟清仓离场

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以避免承担周四开盘的跳空风险

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这说明哈美股市场依然处于高度戒备的状态

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风险并没有完全解除

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尾盘的半小时拉升

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更像是一个有技术性因素支撑的脆弱假象

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真正的压力测试呢可能在明天周四才开始

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最后三大股指回吐了日内大半涨幅

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不过仍集体收涨

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科技股领涨市场

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应用软件股终于出现了较为像样的反弹

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标普500指数今天摸到月均线后遇阻回落

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看似因为美联储会议机啊

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其实月均线这里本来就抛压较重哈

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冲不过去

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又刚好遇上一份有鹰派倾向的会议纪要

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于是就顺势回落了

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日K目前呢受到多条均线压制

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在量化基金CTA看来

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只要指数没能站稳六千九百十点

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系统性的慢压就会在后台持续运作

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等站稳月均线上方

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CCTA才会从机械性抛售转向观察

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伽马呢也会有负转正

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期权做市商会从此前放大波动变为抑制波动

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这会导致weeks进一步快速回落

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指数才能够稳步推升呃三番

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唯一重阻力位就会只剩下7000点整数关口了

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但是从今天的这个盘面情况来看哈

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指数很可能哦会先再次去回踩6800点支撑

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QQ在这条半年线附近遇阻回落

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本来是很有希望明后天继续走高

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去摸一下月均线的哈

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但是现在情况又增加了变数

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那嗯暂时可以先不操作哈

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明天周四先观望一下

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这几天各大机构的13F曝光呢相继出炉

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其中因为打造的Q4持仓变动尤其引起关注

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截止四季度末

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英伟达一共持有五家公司

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分别为英特尔coral wave

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新思科技嗯

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诺基亚还有nbi is

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这个YNDX是nb i is的前身

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俄罗斯公司啊

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科技巨头young dex其实就是NBIS啦

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与此同时呢

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达志在Q4清仓了APLD

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arm i x i x以及文远知行WRD

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这显示出英伟达正在收缩战线

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把资金集中在对他核心业务

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有直接战略协同意义的产能与工具上

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通过重仓呃

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英特尔解决潜在的产能焦虑

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当然也是为了讨川普的欢心哈

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同时呢也通过新思科技锁定射击优势

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抱住了英伟达这个金大腿的这五只股票

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今天股价都涨了

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而惨遭大哥抛弃的另外几只股票呢

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除了arm之外

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另外几个股价呢今天都出现了不同程度的下跌

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IX2X盘初一度跌超13%

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盘中居然给他拉回来了

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尾盘还能转涨

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妖股果然不能以正常逻辑来操作

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看它的股价日K线走势

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在这一份13F报告出炉之前

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股价走势就已经提前反映了利空哈

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已经有一波下跌了

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所以报告出炉之后呢

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就利空落地

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空头回补平仓

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推动了股价的日内回升

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另一份投资者重点关注的13月份报告

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那就是伯克希尔哈撒韦

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在巴菲特担任CEO的最后一个季度动作

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哈报告显示

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伯克希尔在去年第四季度

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继续减持美国银行和苹果

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但是这两个仍然是不可希尔的头号重仓股

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另一个引人注目的变动

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就是对亚马逊的清仓大甩卖

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直接减持了约77%

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从2019年Q1开始建仓

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它的成本价才82美元

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到去年四季度末

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股价涨到了230美元

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也赚翻了

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从亚马逊的股价季线走势来看

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伯克希尔可以说是成功卖在了最高点

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因为自进入2026年以来

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亚马逊的股价就开始走空了

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伯克希尔对联合健康的持仓呢没有变动

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依然持有500多万股

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成本价四百十亿美元嗯

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四季度末股价为330美元

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现在跌到290美元了

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有股神与我们共同住的套房哈

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感觉安心多了

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巴菲特做的是顶层总统套房

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我们住下面普通套房

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但大家都是住在同一个山顶

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伯克希尔去年四季度唯一新进的个股呢

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是纽约时报

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这只股票NYT嗯

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单季建仓超过506万股

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市值大约3.52亿美元

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纽约时报的股价今天就应声上涨

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这支股票居然能够走得这么强

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前面财报公布之后

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股价还一度嗯跳空下跌了18%

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结果直接就V型反转了

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后面就一路小碎步给拉上来

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一家传统媒体公司

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居然能够走出这么强的股价走势

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还是让人蛮惊讶的

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其他个股方面

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英伟达昨天盘后宣布与梅塔签署了数百万枚

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AI芯片的多年长期订单

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这直接呢修复了市场对AI需求疲软的担忧

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因为QQ今天早盘的暴力拉升哈

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提供了基本面染料

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英伟达股价今天也一度涨近3%

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虽然午后跟随着大盘一起回落

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但是呢财报前它的股价依然会有支撑的

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meta已经是英伟达芯片的第二大买家了

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继续未来买英伟达芯片其实也不稀奇

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不过呢这个事情仍然对AMD的情绪面造成了打击

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因为meta将会在独立服务器中使用英伟达CPU

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这意味着英伟达正在进一步进入

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原本由英特尔和AMD所主导的领域

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AMD股价日K图呢

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正在形成一个潜在的双顶形态哈

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如果嗯接下来回补下方缺口

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并且跌破了这条年限

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那这个双顶形态就确立了

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后面得有排跌了

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只有守住这个缺口不回补

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并且呢重新上涨嗯

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从这个收复这条50日均线才能够解除春线

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但是50日均线上方也有这么大一个

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缺口的压力在

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所以我对AAMD的股价走势呢并不是很乐观

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FIGM股东们

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此时此刻我估计是热泪盈眶了吧

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公司盘后出财报

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营收同比增长40%

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超出指引上线嗯

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调整后每股收益八美分

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同比增长30%

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三

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2026财年的指引强劲

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公司现金充裕

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业绩重返增长轨道

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股价盘后大涨

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00:09:47,519 --> 00:09:50,350
这份业绩可能就暂时打消了嗯

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此前对于AI颠覆恐慌的这个情绪

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这股价跌了很多了哈

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00:09:57,100 --> 00:09:59,659
接下来可能是会有一波反弹

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00:09:59,659 --> 00:10:02,580
KAVA这边呢财报见官司

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营收利润均超预期

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但是股价暴跌

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华尔街的解读是

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营收虽然同比增长

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00:10:08,710 --> 00:10:10,950
但是环比出现明显下滑

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00:10:10,950 --> 00:10:13,570
单车利润没有达到完美预期

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引发的市场对增长见顶的担忧

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其实真正的原因是在这份财报公布之前

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00:10:19,279 --> 00:10:22,259
卡瓦纳已经深陷舆论漩涡了

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盘后的暴跌是对这些隐患的集中示范

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其中包括嗯著名做空机构CORTEMCT

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此前呢指控

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卡瓦纳涉嫌通过关联方交易

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隐藏了至少10亿美元的费用

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00:10:35,818 --> 00:10:38,418
还有审计合规层面的不确定性

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让机构投资者在鹰派美联储纪要或者敏感期

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选择了先卖为敬

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其实华尔街

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我觉得多少都知道这家公司有些问题

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但是它的股价走势就是很逆天

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干放多少空头呀

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00:10:53,120 --> 00:10:54,200
巴菲特都说了

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看不懂的股票不要做

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就是不管你是做多还是做空

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就是都不要碰嗯

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网络安全龙头PANW股价季后大跌

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00:11:04,330 --> 00:11:07,159
显示出这个AI领域的软件层呢

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依然面临着盈利压力

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或者说考验

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尽管公司第二财季业绩超出了华尔街预期

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00:11:14,090 --> 00:11:16,769
但是第三财季指引不及预期啊

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公司CEO在财报电话会议上表示

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人工智能并不会在短期内取代网络安全行业

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相反客户们正在意识到

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需要通过更统一更一致的安全架构

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才能够借助AI更快更高效地做出安全响应

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00:11:33,328 --> 00:11:36,369
其实华尔街杀网络安全股的主要目的

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00:11:36,369 --> 00:11:37,828
还是为了杀估值啦

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00:11:37,828 --> 00:11:41,019
那个所谓的AI颠覆恐慌

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对有的嗯软件企业来说是真实的哈

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00:11:44,620 --> 00:11:46,929
但是对于网络安全行业

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00:11:46,929 --> 00:11:49,230
那这个抛售只是借口

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PAN股价跌了这么多

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市盈率TTM还高达85倍呢

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之前更贵

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更何况他这一次指引不及预期是吧

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才跌了这么点

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已经算是很客气了

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不然的话跌个20%都是轻轻松松的

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硬盘制造商西部数据嗯

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宣布计划通过二次配售出售他旗下原子公司

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闪迪的580万股股份

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发售价格呢为每股545美元

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筹资31.7亿美元

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用以削减公司债务

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闪迪公司自身不在这次发行中出售任何普通股

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也不会从这次发行中呢获得任何收益

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这次发行预计将会在明天2月19号完成

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具体呢取决于惯例交割条件

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00:12:35,839 --> 00:12:38,499
反正这两家公司的股票今年都上涨

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所以这个消息对股价也没有什么影响嗯

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全球电子设计自动化公司CDN财报全面超预期

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股价跳空上涨

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再一次测试250日与50日均线双重压力

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之前这股票呢也受到AI颠覆担忧的冲击

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但是财报表明

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客户并没有减少对设计工具的使用

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00:13:02,940 --> 00:13:05,840
呃就像刚才所说的那个FIGMA一样哈

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00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:10,090
嗯业绩有点就是打脸此前的AI恐慌了

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而且积压定单攀升到了创纪录的78亿美元

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不仅体现了市场对电子设计自动化工具

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以及IP业务的旺盛需求

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也为2026年的业绩确定性呢

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奠定了坚实基础

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00:13:24,379 --> 00:13:28,059
所以CDNS被一些分析师描述为

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这个电子设计自动化领域的首选公司

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其实他这份财报业绩在我看来也就平平无奇嗯

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00:13:36,269 --> 00:13:39,200
Q4营收只增长了6.2%而已哈

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虽然利润增速更强一些

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但是它的股票估值这么高

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00:13:44,220 --> 00:13:46,740
这个业绩增速仍然不够看呀

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00:13:46,740 --> 00:13:50,240
股价上涨更多是因为情绪修复

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还有股票回购

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公司计划在2026年

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将约50%的自有现金流

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都用于股票回购啊

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以持续回馈股东

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并且彰显了对长期发展的信心呃

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这就是业绩不够

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回购来凑嘛

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模拟芯片巨头ADI股价逆天了

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从去年11月迄今

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展示零利哈在大盘一直摩顶

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有很多的个股

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00:14:16,668 --> 00:14:19,899
就像DI就这么低调的一直的上涨

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公司2026财年第一财季

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营收31.6亿美元

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同比增长30%

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每股收益1.69美元

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同比更是大增一百十七%

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嗯前景指引也很强劲

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公司董事会还宣布将季度股息提高11%

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工业自动化转型以及数据中心对高性能

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模拟电源管理芯片的强劲需求

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是推动公司本轮业绩爆发的核心支柱

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让公司呢能够迅速摆脱此前

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半导体行业的下行周期啊

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又这个重新步入上升通道

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HUM的前景有点让人担忧哈

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最近几天

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华尔街分析师们是扎堆下调对该股的目标股价

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但是大多数呢都在200美元左右

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只有高盛最狠

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目标价从430美元

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一下子砍到了158美元

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并且给出卖出品级以高时能尿性

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这意味着这只股价的这个底部

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很可能就是在一百五十一百六十附近了

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真跌到这个位置

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可不能傻乎乎的卖出了哈

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那样就等于把筹码给扔给高盛了

342
00:15:28,690 --> 00:15:31,490
嗯川普想要控制这个费率

343
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减少政府补贴

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但问题是医疗成本一直上升呀

345
00:15:35,870 --> 00:15:40,149
你这个让医保公司赔钱赚吆喝生意谁肯做呀

346
00:15:40,149 --> 00:15:42,149
所以呢最后肯定会谈成

347
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一个双方都能够接受的费率哈

348
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在4月份博弈结果出来之前

349
00:15:47,830 --> 00:15:51,700
这些医保股呢就只能够继续维持震荡啦

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行今天我们就说到这里

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那我们明天见拜拜

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