现金流最重要

1
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在美国我最开心的事呢就是逛

2
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今天又来了一个新的社区啊

3
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这个步道就是小区出来之后

4
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我一直一直右转一直右转哎

5
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走到了一个特别优美的地方啊

6
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你看这个地方路

7
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其实在美国

8
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如果说你会跑步啊

9
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你喜欢跑步啊

10
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绝对是一个特别好的地方

11
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因为我现在呢体重比较大啊

12
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啊包括我之前练过田径啊

13
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腿受过伤

14
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所以我不太喜欢跑步啊

15
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我就喜欢走啊

16
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因为我担心的是万一你的啊这个关节磨损了

17
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再也无法恢复了嘛

18
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但他走的过程里面呢

19
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你在观察啊

20
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周边的一草一木啊

21
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你发现哇哦真的太漂亮了

22
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今天来的这个地方

23
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这个路真的是很漂亮啊

24
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它其实它还在闹市区哎

25
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只不过呢这个地方呢他房子比较大

26
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比较宽敞

27
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而且呢这个路段因为他不是主干道啊

28
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一般人呢也过不来哎

29
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所以说我就哎

30
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我就发现这个特别特别漂亮的地方啊

31
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其实呢我给大家讲一个点啊

32
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就是A股的股民啊

33
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包括A股投入

34
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你呢赌性太强了

35
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大家一定要小心一点啊

36
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就是平时呢可能你这次沾上这个AI的光哈

37
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比如说下游产业链啊

38
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跟着这一波赚了

39
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但是这个经验一定是无法复制的

40
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各位大家大家一定要明白这个逻辑在哪里

41
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就是实际上99%的投资决策

42
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都是无法复制的

43
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因为它这个产业呢在这个时候好

44
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它不代表一直会好对吧

45
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你举个例子啊

46
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比如说这些代工厂啊

47
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就跟当年那个美团

48
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大家知道当时那个摩拜单车起来的时候啊

49
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无论是美团哈

50
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无论是啊阿里

51
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无论是这个其他的这些单车公司

52
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滴滴啊

53
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投了大量的这种单车下去

54
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然后一下子把天津的那些代工厂都给搞火了啊

55
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那一年干啊过去几十年的活

56
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但是呢很快是吧

57
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一阵风过去之后呢

58
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全部倒闭了

59
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其实呢这个AI也是一样的哈

60
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就是什么样的公司还能有护城河

61
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比如说你是上游的对吧

62
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比如说这些存储公司啊

63
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三星海力士啊

64
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镁光之类的

65
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他们是没有问题的啊

66
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再比如说纳的七姐妹

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他们也没有问题

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但最惨的是谁呢

69
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就是A股的这个代工厂

70
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就是说白了你是可以替代的啊

71
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它并不存在

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大家说啊

73
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我不可替代任何技术的变革啊

74
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稍微你跟不上

75
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基本上就被取代了

76
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就大家就像今天的养猪啊

77
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比如说你像墓园啊

78
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你再看一下这个啊

79
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这个光伏是吧

80
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这些工厂其实来讲过去的时候

81
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大家也认为他们不可替代啊

82
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你看光伏当时很牛逼的时候啊

83
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当时有个薄膜叫汉能

84
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那市值差点

85
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当时那个他们CEO李河君都成中国首富了

86
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那你看怎么样

87
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光伏的首付都是昙花一现

88
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但是你说这些啊

89
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这些AI产业链下游的首富

90
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他就不可能是昙花一现吗

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大家想想是不是

92
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所以我有时候我就觉得很多时候呢

93
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我们哈拿着这个运气当实力的时候

94
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我要想一下啊

95
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然后第二个呢就是现金流是吧

96
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其实这两年很少有人会在乎这个现金流啊

97
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我自己做企业

98
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我很清楚我原来做代理商啊

99
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我做VIVO啊

100
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我原来是啊

101
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第一年做一个亿啊

102
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比如说有十几个点利润啊

103
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第2年做两个亿啊

104
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可能变成5~8个点了

105
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到后年做三个亿

106
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可能变成3~5个点了

107
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到后年啊做了五个亿可能变成一两个点

108
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再往后呢就变成亏掉了

109
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但是你会发现一个问题啊

110
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就是你好像规模越来越大

111
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但是你的现金越来越少

112
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为啥呢

113
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都在货上

114
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因为你每一年的利润都要降低

115
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所以你第2年当你的这个任务额增加的时候

116
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你不得不去拿出更多的钱来去进货

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所以咱做代理商的人都没有钱

118
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什么时候有钱呢

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关门的时候

120
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所以说这些企业大部分都是生意下滑是吧

121
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然后然后关门大吉的时候啊

122
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这个时候呢哎有现金了

123
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但是前提是你不能亏损啊

124
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如果说像现在做手机的话

125
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比如说我们1919年之后

126
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如果我们不是把那个VIVO手机声音关掉啊

127
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然后来做投资的哈

128
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那正好把这钱全亏完

129
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为啥呢

130
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因为比如说20年开始亏

131
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20年亏

132
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亏掉19年的利润啊

133
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1819年的利润

134
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然后21年亏掉1718年的利润

135
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然后再往前倒推

136
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一直到今天

137
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正好把112年到13年开始锻炼

138
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钱全部亏完

139
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因为我身边有很多很多的案例

140
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他们很多时候为了维持这个规模啊

141
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他们还要贷款啊

142
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比如原来这个什么山记啊

143
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什么这个啊

144
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好多好多公司都这样的话

145
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就是他们如果说在亏钱的时候缩小规模哈

146
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及时的止损啊

147
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那些人呢哎反而把利润留下来了

148
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但但凡没有支持人的

149
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今年都非常非常痛苦

150
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那第二个呢就是做工厂的

151
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各位做工厂的也是一样的哈

152
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就是因为我自己做了10年工厂哈

153
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我太清楚了

154
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就是工厂呢什么时候有利润呢

155
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也是关门的时候

156
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大部分时候大家是什么状态呢

157
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你举个例子啊

158
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比如说你今天啊一晚他们都爆了

159
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这个产品的生命周期只有半年到一年啊

160
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在国内可能3~6个月

161
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然后呢你要去开模啊

162
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比如说这个产品啊

163
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你卖了1万台啊

164
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挣了100万

165
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那第2年开了个模具呢

166
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正好100万

167
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那第3年呢你还得开

168
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因为啥你招商了

169
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你参加展会了

170
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你没有新模具

171
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人家不进货啊

172
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然后呢你没有竞争力

173
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然后你再往后呢

174
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你发现你开的模具越来越多

175
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但是你发现你的产品的利润越来越低了

176
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为啥呢

177
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因为这时候大家发现这个行业利润很高

178
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所有人呢都会进来

179
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然后这个时候呢大家就开始互相的厮杀

180
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是你从原来的一台可能挣100块

181
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现在变成了挣十块

182
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但是新品呢你不开又不行

183
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你不开的话是吧

184
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你展会都没有东西摆啊

185
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客户呢也不愿意进

186
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所以你到最后你发现工厂呢做的越大

187
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基本上的模具越多

188
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现金流越少对吧

189
00:05:04,569 --> 00:05:07,050
然后等到等到这个干了十几20年关门的时候

190
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发现哇送了几千万的模具哈

191
00:05:09,529 --> 00:05:10,829
然后那个模具能卖多少钱呢

192
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哈哈没人要

193
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只能卖到非洲

194
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所以这两年

195
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为什么很多低端制造业都都跑非洲去了哈

196
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就是那些人把模具卖到非洲去了是吧

197
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然后呢这个给那些啊消费成本更低的人去用了

198
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所以这也是工厂的现状

199
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如果说你不去看到这些现金流呢

200
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你发现你很辛苦对吧

201
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你当时收摊的时候发现没赚多少钱是吧

202
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去吧去吧

203
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如果说你想再重来一遍

204
00:05:34,029 --> 00:05:35,009
更赚不到钱啊

205
00:05:35,009 --> 00:05:37,490
还有做酒店的也是酒店这种商业模式呢

206
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跟商场一样的

207
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比如说每隔5年哈装修翻新一次啊

208
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比如说前15年一年赚100万

209
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赚了500万

210
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结果到第6年你发现如果你不装修哎

211
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旁边开了一个更豪华的店对吧

212
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然后你不装修

213
00:05:49,790 --> 00:05:51,449
你发现你没竞争力了啊

214
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无论是餐馆

215
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无论是酒店都这样的

216
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你一装修呢发现正好需要500万

217
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也是你前5年挣的钱又投进去了

218
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最后呢也是一毛不剩

219
00:05:59,230 --> 00:06:00,730
所以你看这上市公司啊

220
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就是好像这些传统的企业

221
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像酒啊

222
00:06:03,129 --> 00:06:03,689
茶啊

223
00:06:03,689 --> 00:06:04,490
烟啊哈

224
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水啊啊

225
00:06:05,730 --> 00:06:06,410
化妆品啊

226
00:06:06,410 --> 00:06:07,129
这些生意好

227
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好像没什么技术含量

228
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但是我告诉你

229
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他们的毛利很高哈

230
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水的毛利

231
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你看农夫山泉

232
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你看毛利多高对吧

233
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你起步都50%

234
00:06:15,259 --> 00:06:16,238
饮料也是

235
00:06:16,238 --> 00:06:18,980
就是反而呢这些公司呢因为他不需要研发

236
00:06:18,980 --> 00:06:20,699
他没有他没有这个投入

237
00:06:20,699 --> 00:06:21,620
剩下都是现金

238
00:06:21,620 --> 00:06:22,899
挣点钱可以分红啊

239
00:06:22,899 --> 00:06:25,569
全部分完也不影响第2年的这个利润

240
00:06:25,569 --> 00:06:27,569
所以反而这个公司呢哈

241
00:06:27,569 --> 00:06:29,810
这在美国其实都是历史新高的啊

242
00:06:29,810 --> 00:06:31,009
你要可口可乐是吧

243
00:06:31,009 --> 00:06:31,709
历史新高

244
00:06:31,709 --> 00:06:33,610
怪物饮料历史新高是吧

245
00:06:33,610 --> 00:06:35,990
可百事可乐基本上快递水平高了

246
00:06:35,990 --> 00:06:38,089
那在中国呢大家都看不上啊

247
00:06:38,089 --> 00:06:40,129
在中国的话大家都嫌这个啊

248
00:06:40,129 --> 00:06:42,079
这个这个做得太慢哈

249
00:06:42,079 --> 00:06:42,819
利润太低

250
00:06:42,819 --> 00:06:44,980
但在美国呢其实这都是顶尖好生意

251
00:06:44,980 --> 00:06:46,920
所以实际上呢现金流呢

252
00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:50,629
其实是做投资应该非常非常注重的一个因素

253
00:06:50,629 --> 00:06:52,089
因为在A股的话

254
00:06:52,089 --> 00:06:54,329
其实哈89%这类企业啊

255
00:06:54,329 --> 00:06:55,529
你做到最后你发现啊

256
00:06:55,529 --> 00:06:57,430
基本上没有太多的股东回报

257
00:06:57,430 --> 00:07:00,819
他只是说你在某个阶段哈快速生长期啊

258
00:07:00,819 --> 00:07:02,019
你你你布局了啊

259
00:07:02,019 --> 00:07:03,579
这个时候呢你可能啊

260
00:07:03,579 --> 00:07:05,160
你可能跟着这个行情起来了

261
00:07:05,160 --> 00:07:06,480
但如果说你不卖

262
00:07:06,480 --> 00:07:08,920
哎你发现呢你跟着行情下去了

263
00:07:08,920 --> 00:07:11,439
那这个呢也是我自己做生意啊

264
00:07:11,439 --> 00:07:12,319
我是深有感触啊

265
00:07:12,319 --> 00:07:14,959
所以说很多时候我在评估一家公司的时候

266
00:07:14,959 --> 00:07:17,579
我更注重的是啊看他的几个指标啊

267
00:07:17,579 --> 00:07:18,339
一个大ROO1啊

268
00:07:18,339 --> 00:07:20,779
净资产回报率嘛啊第二呢啊看他的分红

269
00:07:20,779 --> 00:07:22,259
还有回购比例啊

270
00:07:22,259 --> 00:07:24,399
还有看他的业绩和利润增速啊

271
00:07:24,399 --> 00:07:26,779
再看一下它的毛利的一个情况啊

272
00:07:26,779 --> 00:07:29,319
包括它的资产负债表里面很多数据啊

273
00:07:29,319 --> 00:07:30,660
比如说啊有通应付啊

274
00:07:30,660 --> 00:07:33,699
在建工程啊啊包括他的利润报表里面的这个啊

275
00:07:33,699 --> 00:07:35,000
这个费用占比

276
00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:36,420
是我通过这种方式呢

277
00:07:36,420 --> 00:07:39,000
也发掘出来很多这种潜力股啊

278
00:07:39,000 --> 00:07:40,519
比如说啊特别是户外呀

279
00:07:40,519 --> 00:07:42,990
卡洛驰呀啊也找到了很多的问题的

280
00:07:42,990 --> 00:07:43,550
比如说耐克啊

281
00:07:43,550 --> 00:07:44,870
露露莱姆露露lemon

282
00:07:44,870 --> 00:07:46,629
耐克为什么他们就不行呢

283
00:07:46,629 --> 00:07:48,829
就是就是因为他的SKU太分散

284
00:07:48,829 --> 00:07:50,490
就销售费用占比太高啊

285
00:07:50,490 --> 00:07:51,560
毛利的不稳定

286
00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:53,220
然后SKU多的时候呢

287
00:07:53,220 --> 00:07:54,720
你在不断的处理库存

288
00:07:54,720 --> 00:07:56,439
所以你看最近这两年啊

289
00:07:56,439 --> 00:07:57,680
耐克表现非常非常差

290
00:07:57,680 --> 00:08:00,399
原因就是因为大量的库存要打折出售

291
00:08:00,399 --> 00:08:02,360
然后LOLLEON也是一样的哈

292
00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:04,800
也是SQU态度横跨了很多领域

293
00:08:04,800 --> 00:08:05,560
你反观卡洛斯

294
00:08:05,560 --> 00:08:06,000
他是户外

295
00:08:06,000 --> 00:08:06,709
因为专注

296
00:08:06,709 --> 00:08:08,689
那反而维持很很高的周转率

297
00:08:08,689 --> 00:08:11,589
所以说并不是说单纯的毛利是耐克

298
00:08:11,589 --> 00:08:12,329
还有路莱姆

299
00:08:12,329 --> 00:08:13,449
他的库存大的时候

300
00:08:13,449 --> 00:08:14,370
周挡率降低

301
00:08:14,370 --> 00:08:15,509
导致了ROE降低

302
00:08:15,509 --> 00:08:18,029
但是德国的户外还有卡洛斯呢

303
00:08:18,029 --> 00:08:19,529
是因为他的sq u比较小

304
00:08:19,529 --> 00:08:20,730
比较聚焦是吧

305
00:08:20,730 --> 00:08:22,410
导致了他的这个销售费用就减少了

306
00:08:22,410 --> 00:08:23,589
周转率也变快了

307
00:08:23,589 --> 00:08:26,810
所以呢就是少就是多慢就是快啊

308
00:08:26,810 --> 00:08:28,870
这就是针对小米这种企业啊

309
00:08:28,870 --> 00:08:31,069
它为什么它就很难有高达O1呢

310
00:08:31,069 --> 00:08:32,730
就是SP越多的时候

311
00:08:32,730 --> 00:08:34,818
你在这种充分劲的面前

312
00:08:34,818 --> 00:08:37,698
实际上呢你是没有办法做到面面俱到的

313
00:08:37,698 --> 00:08:40,019
所以你大部分时间呢你都在处理库存

314
00:08:40,019 --> 00:08:43,769
大部分时间呢你都在不断的应对各方面的硬争

315
00:08:43,769 --> 00:08:44,730
你看我去年的视频

316
00:08:44,730 --> 00:08:46,370
我讲了一个小米的案例啊

317
00:08:46,370 --> 00:08:47,850
我从2025年开始

318
00:08:47,850 --> 00:08:49,558
他是一个存量市场

319
00:08:49,558 --> 00:08:51,538
就是当存粮市场开始的时候呢

320
00:08:51,538 --> 00:08:54,759
你更多的精力在于说每一家都在守地盘啊

321
00:08:54,759 --> 00:08:57,470
所以说你会发现你的每个对手都玩了命的

322
00:08:57,470 --> 00:08:59,230
去给你给你给你玩

323
00:08:59,230 --> 00:08:59,909
给你啊

324
00:08:59,909 --> 00:09:00,669
白刃战啊

325
00:09:00,669 --> 00:09:01,350
为了什么呢

326
00:09:01,350 --> 00:09:03,289
守住自己的最后一亩三分地吧

327
00:09:03,289 --> 00:09:05,870
所以这个呢如果说你看不懂的话呢

328
00:09:05,870 --> 00:09:09,450
很容易啊在这种上涨的势头里面忘记了风险

329
00:09:09,450 --> 00:09:11,600
所以如果你作为企业的话

330
00:09:11,600 --> 00:09:14,139
你肯定是非常能理解我的逻辑的

331
00:09:14,139 --> 00:09:16,269
但是呢如果你没有做过企业

332
00:09:16,269 --> 00:09:19,269
你最好呢也要去看看那些失败的案例啊

333
00:09:19,269 --> 00:09:20,899
避免自己掉到坑里面啊

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