油涨了，但美股有它自己的想法🤓！NaNa说美股(2026.06.01)

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说

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美股今天是6月1号

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6月份的首个交易日

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每一局势呢再起波澜

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在刚刚过去的周末

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美军袭击了伊朗的无人机指挥中心

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美方称

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这是是针对伊朗方面的具有攻击性的行为

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做出了有节制的防卫性打击

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伊朗革命卫队也宣布

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针对一个美军基地发动了报复性打击

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反正过去数日内哈双方多次发生了零星交火

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与此同时

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要加强对黎巴嫩境内的真主党民兵的打击行动

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以军周一就今天对黎巴嫩南部再次发动了袭击

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于是今天盘前

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宜兰就祭出彻底封锁霍尔木兹海峡

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并且暂停与美国对话的底牌

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原有的就应声上涨

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然而油价的上涨

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并没能引发这个美股市场的恐慌

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因为川普再度祭出了他口外交

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一边宣称宜兰仍然有意达成协议

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最终一切都会好起来

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一边通过ax cs

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还有以色列媒体放风称

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真主党已经同意无条件停火

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这种极限施压和预留退路的操盘手段

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让股指在盘中震荡拉升

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最终转涨

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量化机器人被消息变得平反

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反转

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玩得团团转哈

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最终呢多投资金夺回了主导权

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这个美股三大股指今天集体收涨

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华尔街对于海峡封锁的消息似乎反应冷淡哈

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核心在于

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市场目前最主流的定价仍然是这个夏季

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双方能够达成和解

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认为长期封锁呢不可持续

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只要美伊没有爆发全面战争

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任何零息交货

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被量化资金视作低吸高抛的日常震荡

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此外川普今天还扬言说

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油价将会在极短时间内直线暴跌

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呃这个对嗯原油这个多头呢形成了震慑

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进一步安抚了市场

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不过股市虽然反应冷淡

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但油价回升

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让10年期美债收益率再次冲击

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4.5%的紧接红线

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直接对高股息的公用事业板块形成了估值压制

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对利率极其敏感的电力股呢全线受挫

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cg更是跌了7.7%

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除了利率压制之外

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还因为公司以280亿美元一股的价格

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溢价增发了1100万股

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嗯做这些公用事业垫底股其实也很简单的哈

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只要利率下降

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你就做多这些啊

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电力股利率要是上升了

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就赶紧抛售

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标普500指数

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今天盘中呢已经突破了7600点

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最高涨到七千六百十八点

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但收盘回落到7600

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下方

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K线均线都尚未出现任何反转

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这个嗯转弱的信号

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ISI技术指标显示指数处于短线超买区域呃

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但是超买可以继续超买的MACD呢

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则展现出了高位钝化与潜在的鉴定特征嗯

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因为临走下方的红色空头能量柱开始显现了哈

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这意味着日内指数反弹虽然凶猛

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可是多头力量似乎正在衰减

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与此同时

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指数持续攀升

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MACD的快慢线高点呢却一波比一波低

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没能够追随价格同步新高

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这是标准的日线级别高位顶背离哈

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表明这段展示完全有资金惯性和空头回补

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维持底部的绝对多头动能已经在悄然流失

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结合日K目前已经非常接近这个布林带上轨

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并且呢受到了明显的压制

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技术面暗示

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未来一两周内

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指数随时可能借由某个利空消息展开一次

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向布林带中轨

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目前是7430点附近

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回踩的一个技术性修复

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周线级别指数已经连续上涨九周了

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累计反弹了约19%

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传下自2020年5月以来最佳表现

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期权安分析机构SPT伽马特别提醒

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市场正步入一个事件高度密集的时间窗口

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所以呢部分聪明的资金已经开始未雨绸缪

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通过买入小盘股IWM看跌期权

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以及不局波动率指数VIX多头仓位来进行对冲

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一边做多标普QQ废半指数

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然后呢

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一边就做空IWAM做多VIX来进行这个繁育

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新来给自己仓位挂保险波特干嘛

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警告一旦嗯高位看涨期权需求回落的话

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就需要警惕获利盘涌出引发的快速回调

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就现在做市商之所以一直被动的进行买入

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就因为大量的看涨期权推动的哈

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一旦这个呃

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投资者不再疯狂的抢购这些看涨期权的话

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那个伽马就可能会迅速反转

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AI领域今天引来了重磅消息

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资金呢疯狂在产业链上下游寻找新标的

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人工智能剧透

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ENTROPIK宣布已经秘密提交了IPO申请

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抢在了竞争对手OpenAI前面

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未来几周

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投资者将热切期待

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欧舒比克S1文件中披露的更多细节

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这消息呢也再次提振了全市场

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对AI核心赛道的风险偏好

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存储概念今天再度走高

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美光科技占6.6%

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高盛最新研报发布乐观预期哈

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预计到2028年

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传统d ram

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那以及HBM的供需将比2026年

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比今年更加紧张

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这种紧张态势就持续到2028年哈

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现在美光科技的期权交易溢价呢

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已经超过了s spy和这个QQ的总和

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这是一个极度疯狂的信号

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上一次单只股票出现这种奇观

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还是2024年7月

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那时候的英伟达呃

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当时就随后引发了英伟达

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连续3~4周的技术性回调

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所以呢这个嗯持有多头仓位的朋友们

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需要防范美观科技短期情绪过热的

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冲高回落风险

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今年年初以来

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美股AI迎来审美轮动

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海美光科技

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德州一汽

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Cisco

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英特尔

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戴尔科技

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诺基亚联想

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这些在2000年互联网泡沫时代的旧日巨星

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曾逐渐淡出了这个舞台

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中央的如今得益于狂热而且毫无减退迹象的AI

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资本支出浪潮正以复仇者联盟的姿态

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这个强势回归呃

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资金开始青睐

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这些拥有成熟供应链和价值

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护城河的老牌科技股

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所以这个就是老七雄

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煤炭基尼好惨

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没有任何消息就跌了5%

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日内的走势与特斯拉几乎完全一样哈

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两家股东们可以抱头痛哭了

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不知道是不是被动基金在SPACEX上市之前卖出

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这些巨头

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腾出现金与仓位预留给SPACEX

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上周机构们还炒作特斯拉与SPACEX合体呢

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结果今天就翻脸不认人了

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所以这市场趋势真的变化太太快了

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英伟达今天倒是强势反弹

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重新回到了二百十五到230美元区间

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迅速修复了上周尾盘

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因为MSCI指数调整和养老金季度再平衡

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砸出来的这个黄金坑

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黄仁勋宣布推出RTX spark超级芯片

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正式进军PC领域哈

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计划于今年秋季亮相高端PC与笔记本

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正面挑战英特呃

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这导致个人电脑芯片传统势力英特尔

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还有AMD的股价就就直接下挫嗯

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投资者担心英伟达呢会让英特尔

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还有AMD在PC以及服务器CPU市场复备受低

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因为高通此前与微软力推的CORE pilot

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还有PC稍微起量呢

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如今就迎来了英伟达这么一个强大的对手

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arm今天股价狂飙15.8%

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英伟达全新那个RTX spark超级芯片

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是基于arm架构呃

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集成将会率先导入微软

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戴尔

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惠普

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联想等一线大厂

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arm呢就被视为最大的赢家

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每一台搭载这个英伟达芯片的PC售出

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就将为其呢贡献授权与版税收入

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这标志着arm架构在苹果生态成功之后

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在windows领域进入呃巨头硬核驱动的新阶段哈

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PC厂商

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比如像戴尔科技以及存储厂商

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比如美光科技也都被视为受益者

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市场预期借AIPC主题

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迎来一波企业以及消费者级别的换机潮

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微软股价呢今天续涨2.3%

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因为它同步推出了面向windows系统的d j x station啊

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高端工作站第四季度开售

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直击企业级AI软件开发痛点

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进一步巩固了微软的AI护城河

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今天日K终于收复了年限这一个关键技术位

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但是呃它越往上哈

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这个压力也会越加沉重

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不仅有缺口要完全回补

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还有上方这个双顶结构需要消化

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00:10:18,328 --> 00:10:20,889
嗯所以后面走一步看一步吧

211
00:10:20,889 --> 00:10:22,490
看他到底能走多远

212
00:10:22,490 --> 00:10:23,750
CV的股价啊

213
00:10:23,750 --> 00:10:25,289
低迷了两周之后啊

214
00:10:25,289 --> 00:10:28,389
今天终于硬气了一回跳空大涨哈

215
00:10:28,389 --> 00:10:30,139
重新站上了月均线

216
00:10:30,139 --> 00:10:32,860
公司宣布已经完成对英伟达VR

217
00:10:32,860 --> 00:10:36,600
will be平台的行业首创启用与验证

218
00:10:36,600 --> 00:10:39,339
资金呢给予了高度的商业化认可

219
00:10:39,339 --> 00:10:41,359
其实唉这都是借口啦

220
00:10:41,359 --> 00:10:45,139
就是对上周落后于bi is的补涨行为而已

221
00:10:45,139 --> 00:10:46,940
只要股价后面回落

222
00:10:46,940 --> 00:10:48,279
不跌破月均线

223
00:10:48,279 --> 00:10:50,440
我们咱们就继续看涨哈

224
00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:52,740
软件板块呢持续回暖

225
00:10:52,740 --> 00:10:54,779
年初市场成极度担忧

226
00:10:54,779 --> 00:10:58,779
这个生成式AI会彻底取代传统软件工具

227
00:10:58,779 --> 00:11:01,240
但是今年5月的密集财报

228
00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:04,419
这个数据证伪了这个悲观叙事

229
00:11:04,419 --> 00:11:06,970
AI并没有吞噬软件

230
00:11:06,970 --> 00:11:09,629
而是将软件从可选配置呢

231
00:11:09,629 --> 00:11:12,990
升级为了AI落地应用的核心基础设施

232
00:11:12,990 --> 00:11:15,250
全球企业级软件

233
00:11:15,250 --> 00:11:19,429
今年一季度的业绩与指引都普遍超出市场预期

234
00:11:19,429 --> 00:11:21,919
推动板块估值强烈修复

235
00:11:21,919 --> 00:11:24,840
surface now今天延续了强势

236
00:11:24,840 --> 00:11:27,159
再度跳空大涨9.2%

237
00:11:27,159 --> 00:11:29,269
6日K的到年线下方

238
00:11:29,269 --> 00:11:31,110
看能否一口气突破

239
00:11:31,110 --> 00:11:32,309
直接站上去哈

240
00:11:32,309 --> 00:11:35,049
如果短线拉回也不用太担心

241
00:11:35,049 --> 00:11:37,470
是个倒车接人的机会哈

242
00:11:37,470 --> 00:11:40,149
拉回蓄力之后再进行突破

243
00:11:40,149 --> 00:11:43,070
太空板块呢持续遭遇失血

244
00:11:43,070 --> 00:11:44,870
受资金短线抽离

245
00:11:44,870 --> 00:11:48,899
以及上周蓝色起源火箭爆炸的余波影响

246
00:11:48,899 --> 00:11:51,220
这板块承压明显啊

247
00:11:51,220 --> 00:11:54,818
DW和working lab双双暴跌15%

248
00:11:54,818 --> 00:11:57,259
小月亮LUNI呢也重挫

249
00:11:57,259 --> 00:12:02,559
不过这更多是短期的一个资金轮动造成的行为

250
00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:05,669
就是一些短线的获利兑现嗯

251
00:12:05,669 --> 00:12:08,549
在SPACEX正式上市之前

252
00:12:08,549 --> 00:12:13,110
华尔街不会让太空板块就彻底熄火掉的嗯

253
00:12:13,110 --> 00:12:17,490
所以呢回调多了就是资金再度加仓的契机哈

254
00:12:17,490 --> 00:12:19,110
在一片惨淡之中

255
00:12:19,110 --> 00:12:24,230
只有这个SPCE这只老千股连续暴起嗯

256
00:12:24,230 --> 00:12:27,889
贝佐斯火箭的失利反而刺激了他的情绪

257
00:12:27,889 --> 00:12:30,450
不怕被认为这个是受益者

258
00:12:30,450 --> 00:12:34,409
加上公司一季度团结号太空船进展顺利

259
00:12:34,409 --> 00:12:36,490
新飞行测试计划在即

260
00:12:36,490 --> 00:12:39,309
吸引了大量散户投机资金

261
00:12:39,309 --> 00:12:42,129
传统军工股倒是跌成了狗

262
00:12:42,129 --> 00:12:43,610
地缘政治火热

263
00:12:43,610 --> 00:12:46,279
传统军工呢却被资金抛弃

264
00:12:46,279 --> 00:12:47,399
North of woman

265
00:12:47,399 --> 00:12:49,220
股价连续下挫哈

266
00:12:49,220 --> 00:12:52,779
周线级别已经逐步逼近200周均线了

267
00:12:52,779 --> 00:12:54,779
还有这个军工股的老大

268
00:12:54,779 --> 00:12:58,259
l mt已经从峰值回撤了27%

269
00:12:58,259 --> 00:13:03,190
目前在年限与250日均线之间苦苦支撑啊

270
00:13:03,190 --> 00:13:06,129
技术形态面临破位风险

271
00:13:06,129 --> 00:13:07,750
买军工股真的太惨了

272
00:13:07,750 --> 00:13:10,289
我现在呃账户里面三只

273
00:13:10,289 --> 00:13:13,500
这个浮亏最大的就是一个是meta

274
00:13:13,500 --> 00:13:16,009
一个呢是呃诺al women

275
00:13:16,009 --> 00:13:18,389
还有一个就是嗯沃尔玛

276
00:13:18,389 --> 00:13:22,240
所以这三支都所谓的价值投资哈

277
00:13:22,240 --> 00:13:23,580
把我给坑惨了

278
00:13:23,580 --> 00:13:26,139
但相对来说跌的也不多了啊

279
00:13:26,139 --> 00:13:28,179
因为买的其实也没有那么多

280
00:13:28,179 --> 00:13:30,740
但是这就是我上周想说的

281
00:13:30,740 --> 00:13:34,110
有时候价值投资这个事情见仁见智

282
00:13:34,110 --> 00:13:35,350
真正要说起来的话

283
00:13:35,350 --> 00:13:38,669
其实还是短线追逐那些热门股更爽哈

284
00:13:38,669 --> 00:13:40,740
收益直接就立竿见影

285
00:13:40,740 --> 00:13:43,840
不像呃价值投资可能要套一阵子

286
00:13:43,840 --> 00:13:48,139
量子计算板块呢多数走高INFQ哈

287
00:13:48,139 --> 00:13:51,649
这一支股票就是我最近一直蛮关注的

288
00:13:51,649 --> 00:13:53,649
是表现最好的一只股票

289
00:13:53,649 --> 00:13:54,409
目前来说

290
00:13:54,409 --> 00:13:56,250
工业巨头哈尼维尔

291
00:13:56,250 --> 00:13:59,769
他支持的量子计算公司QNT呢

292
00:13:59,769 --> 00:14:03,289
在上市之前遭遇机构疯狂抢购啊

293
00:14:03,289 --> 00:14:05,809
认购订单达到数倍之多

294
00:14:05,809 --> 00:14:07,610
这凸显了当下市场

295
00:14:07,610 --> 00:14:10,929
对于量子计算领域的极高投资热情

296
00:14:10,929 --> 00:14:14,429
所以公司立即就宣布扩充IPO规模

297
00:14:14,429 --> 00:14:16,029
到14.6亿美元

298
00:14:16,029 --> 00:14:18,950
发行量提升到2650万股

299
00:14:18,950 --> 00:14:23,370
将IPO价格区间上调到53~55美元

300
00:14:23,370 --> 00:14:26,940
原定为45~50美元的目标市值

301
00:14:26,940 --> 00:14:29,519
就直接指向143亿美元

302
00:14:29,519 --> 00:14:32,799
嗯这支股票将会于周三盘后定价

303
00:14:32,799 --> 00:14:34,129
周四上涨

304
00:14:34,129 --> 00:14:37,289
美国住宅建筑公司TMAHC

305
00:14:37,289 --> 00:14:39,090
股价大涨22.3%

306
00:14:39,090 --> 00:14:40,559
伯克希尔哈撒韦宣

307
00:14:40,559 --> 00:14:45,899
将会以全现金方式收购TMHC对应企业

308
00:14:45,899 --> 00:14:48,059
价值大约85亿美元

309
00:14:48,059 --> 00:14:51,179
这笔交易预计将会于今年下半年完成

310
00:14:51,179 --> 00:14:52,379
顺利交割之后呢

311
00:14:52,379 --> 00:14:54,259
将会退市私有化

312
00:14:54,259 --> 00:14:58,379
MSTR3周罕见的出售了32枚比特币

313
00:14:58,379 --> 00:15:00,720
套现约250万美元

314
00:15:00,720 --> 00:15:03,990
均价7万7135美元

315
00:15:03,990 --> 00:15:08,350
并且还同步增发股票融资1.283亿美元

316
00:15:08,350 --> 00:15:10,590
虽然这套现的数额并不大

317
00:15:10,590 --> 00:15:14,389
但这是公司史上第二次卖出比特币资产了

318
00:15:14,730 --> 00:15:19,820
嗯此前公司就曾宣布要调整长期资本配置策略

319
00:15:19,820 --> 00:15:20,940
弃了麦克斯勒

320
00:15:20,940 --> 00:15:23,759
他过去坚守的永不卖出教条

321
00:15:23,759 --> 00:15:26,559
转向更灵活的资产负债表管理

322
00:15:26,559 --> 00:15:28,379
但是这个信仰松动

323
00:15:32,279 --> 00:15:34,639
为今年4月以来最低水平

324
00:15:34,639 --> 00:15:37,549
MSTR股价呢也成压大跌行

325
00:15:37,549 --> 00:15:39,690
今天我们就简单说到这里

326
00:15:39,690 --> 00:15:41,279
那我们明天见拜拜

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