【NaNa说美股】20260327提前吃上咸菜了！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是3月27号周五

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昨天盘后

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川普才刚大口延迟十天打击伊朗的发电站

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结果今天一大早

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美伊联军就袭击了伊朗的钢铁厂与核设施

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还传来美国要增派1万名地面部队的消息

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受此惊吓

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美股三大股指低开低走

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午后跌幅持续扩大

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全线收在日内最低点

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纳指续跌2.15%

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本周累跌3.23%

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标普500指数已经连续第五周下跌了

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本周累跌2.12%

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跌破了50周均线和0.236

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黄金分割线

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中期趋势已经转空

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下一道保命符在6176点

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这不仅是去年的高点

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也是0.382的黄金分割线

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跌到这哈会有支撑的油价

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今天呢冲到了100美元

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是川普大口的警戒线了

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今天伊朗驱逐了三艘不同国籍的集装箱船

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而伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队宣布

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霍尔木兹海峡已经关闭

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任何过境都将面临严厉措施

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都说川子嘴里没一句真话哈

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伊朗其实也差不多啦

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一边在外交场合上面玩文字游戏

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说自己没有封锁海峡哈

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一边呢派革命卫队揽着船只不让过

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只要我不公开承认

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你们就不能说我绑架全世界

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虽然哈梅内伊那一批顶层

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被美伊联军给集体一波送走

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但是捆绑了伊朗一半嗯

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国家经济的伊斯兰革命卫队

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那是绝不会坐以待毙的

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对于中下层军官来说

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政权倒了

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他们不仅失去权力哈

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所以他们宁愿进入激进军管模式

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也要死磕到底

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现在的伊朗呢根本就不是一个整体

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和美国谈的那一派人哈

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革命卫队根本不鸟他们

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一旦不是一马平川的伊拉克

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扎克罗斯山脉的高远天险

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让美军的地面推进面临无穷无尽的伏击

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9000万人口当中

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即便只有5%的死忠分子转入地下游击战

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对于美军来说也是一个巨大的难题

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而这正是革命卫队敢不断试探美国底线的原因

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他们独川普承受不起大规模地面伤亡

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不敢真的派兵占领德黑兰

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陷入持久战

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他只要极限削弱伊朗

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让伊朗造不出核弹

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威胁不了美元霸权就性

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所以呢大资金早就看穿了

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这场戏还没有到谢幕的时候

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所谓的那十天延迟

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只不过是为了给下一波更大冲击来临之前

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的一次短暂蓄势而已

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标普500指数今天跳空低开

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直接跌穿了上周五的低点

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昨天视频里我们说过

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周四这一根光脚阴线

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就预示了下杀惯性还没有释放完毕

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结果今天连6400都没有守住呀

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太弱了

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最低杀到了6356点

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这个点位很有意思啊

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跟我上周日在会员帖子里预判的

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6330~6350

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这个极限支撑只差了六个点

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这里呢机构的put单密集

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日线负乖离率达到了弹簧的极限

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所以说华尔街那帮鸟人完全没有手下留情哈

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今天就真的是砸盘砸到了极致了

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由于川普总是在周末搞事

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再加上美军正在全速向中东集结大资金

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在这个周末呀极其敏感

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提前出逃了

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嘉兴理财的策略师表示

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现在在这任何头寸过周末

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都意味着要在下周一早上承担极大的风险

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目前这个位置哈追空已经开始有风险了

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但是抄底又还没到时候

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如果这个周末大家相安无事

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下周初呢会有个超卖修复的反弹呃

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但是也顶多摸摸10日均线

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五六千五百七十点附近哈

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随时可能被突发新闻反扑

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要是周末真打起来了

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那下周一大概率还得跳空低开

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但是大家别太害怕哈

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因为股市向来是买预期卖事实的

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开战前的这种不确定性才是最折磨人的

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一旦真的第一枪打响

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第一个美军登陆了

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只要美军在投48小时里

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能够展现压倒性的优势

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解封海下那一帮中东网页们的油能够运出去

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也就不用再抛售美股换现金了

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真的要是硬碰硬哈

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反而比现在这样不死不活的耗子强

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霍尔木兹海峡那么多的船都在抛锚等着呢

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大家可以看一下那个计时的那个画面哈

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每拖一天

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那都是烧钱呀

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自3月5号以来

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标普500呢就没有碰过月均线了

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每次回抽都被10日均线一巴掌打下去

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这个是行情极弱势的标志

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说明中长线大资金在坚决的撤退呀

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每一次向10日均线的靠拢

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都是为了更好地被抛售

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只有站稳10日均线市场

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才算是从ICU转入普通病房

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今天是进手术室了哈

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虽然现在的情况比2025年的关税恐慌

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还要恶劣

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因为关税那个东西吧

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川普想停随时都能够停

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但是中东那摊子事可没有那么容易搞定哈

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不是你想抽身就能抽身的

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但无论再怎么麻烦

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也还没有到2020年疫情熔断

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那种绝望的时刻

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因为目前美国自身的经济韧性还在

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如果标普500短期超跌反弹之后

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到4月底之前能回撤6100~6200点的话

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那这一波底部呢就算是夯实了嗯

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为什么6300这里还不是真正的底部

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只能算是阶段性的低点

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因为我们看过去几次的熊市底部指数呢

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都是在回撤了上一个呃

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市场的高点之后才止跌回升的

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比如2025年4月低点

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就回撤了2022年的历史前高

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2022年那次的熊市低点呢

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也是在回撤了2020年的这个历史前高

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之后才走出来的哈

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这个规律并不是每一次都有效

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但是过去的那几次牛熊转换都遵循了这个模式

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所以这次也大概率会去回踩一下去年的高点

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跌到这呢

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指数的回撤幅度差不多就有约12%

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如果海峡开放了

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那美股就能重新往上走了哈

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如果届时海峡还是没能够恢复正常通行

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那完蛋了

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这个位置一旦被破掉了之后

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就真的要转入熊市了

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可能要看到五千五千六去了哈

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暂时我没有那么悲观啊

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到了4月底

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如果美国还是搞不定海峡

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那这个作为全球霸主的脸面都没有了哈

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真的要爆发全球金融危机了

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还没有跌进个位数

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这让我有点失望啊

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等了很久呀

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怎么就跌不到三跟四呢

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波动率指数VIX今天日内最高冲到了31嗯

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还不错

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但是还没到三十五四十以上的大底信号

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说明恐慌还没有达到极致

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哪一天要是冲到了三十五四十以上啊

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那个时候市场就真正触底了哈

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可以冲进去抄底了

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而在此之前的那些反弹高位都是给减持了机会

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黄金今天意外在涨

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前几天都被抛售换现金

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今天反而出现了明显的避险买盘涌入

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因为大资金是在对冲

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下周可能出现的全面战争哈

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所以地缘政治风险暂时盖过了对通胀的担忧

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现在嗯战争不知道何时结束

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预计对伊朗的战事还将持续2~4周

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前两天那个白宫发言人不是还重申4~6周吗

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只就应该只剩下两周了呀

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唉反正嘴里没有一句真话的

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这些人

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副总统万斯

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新闻网站阿X9斯引述了消息人士的话报道称

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对冲突的预测过于乐观

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夸大了伊朗政权更迭的可能性

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白宫这帮人开打之前兴冲冲的哈

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开打之后

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如今就疯狂甩锅了嗯

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刚开始以为斩首行动的成功之后

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伊朗就能够和平演变

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结果面对伊朗的强硬反抗

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有点措手不及哈

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战术部署呢有点拖泥带水

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就活生生的给了革命卫队的那些少壮派军官们

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重新集结

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接管指挥权的喘息机会

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在个股方面

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MAGS7巨头已经跌掉19%了

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技术面彻底崩坏

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虽然严重超卖

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但是还没看到任何企稳的信号

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木头姐昨天更是大笔清仓科技股

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包括meta英伟达

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Amd

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台积电

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博通

214
00:09:47,990 --> 00:09:50,350
谷歌还有奈飞等等

215
00:09:50,350 --> 00:09:51,950
全都遭到大甩卖

216
00:09:51,950 --> 00:09:54,429
不知道是不是看到了更大的深渊

217
00:09:54,429 --> 00:09:55,309
特斯拉呢

218
00:09:55,309 --> 00:09:58,409
跌破了365这个重要技术支撑位哈

219
00:09:58,409 --> 00:10:00,860
从高点回撤了约27%

220
00:10:00,860 --> 00:10:02,659
有微软没谈那几个在前

221
00:10:02,659 --> 00:10:05,100
我居然还觉得这跌幅能接受

222
00:10:05,100 --> 00:10:07,120
我现在其实有点好奇

223
00:10:07,120 --> 00:10:10,759
speak sex的上市到底是给特斯拉引流呢

224
00:10:10,759 --> 00:10:12,480
还是分流过去

225
00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:15,340
很多人买特斯拉买的早就不是车子了

226
00:10:15,340 --> 00:10:16,980
而是买马斯克这个人

227
00:10:16,980 --> 00:10:19,360
还有它背后的AI机器人

228
00:10:19,360 --> 00:10:20,659
自动驾驶故事

229
00:10:20,659 --> 00:10:22,419
太空幻想等等

230
00:10:22,419 --> 00:10:24,120
但是这些最性感

231
00:10:24,120 --> 00:10:25,899
最有梦想感的叙事

232
00:10:25,899 --> 00:10:28,019
现在越来越像是space x

233
00:10:28,019 --> 00:10:29,750
而不再是特斯拉了

234
00:10:33,120 --> 00:10:35,080
散户的信仰资金啊

235
00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:38,460
恐怕要在这个地球的电动车和火星

236
00:10:38,460 --> 00:10:40,840
火箭之间左右为难了

237
00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:43,159
煤炭日线走出了12连阴

238
00:10:43,159 --> 00:10:45,340
简直丧心病狂啊

239
00:10:45,340 --> 00:10:49,519
市场正在重新给它的法律风险定价下方

240
00:10:49,519 --> 00:10:53,778
唯一的心理大关呢在500美元这种极端走势

241
00:10:53,778 --> 00:10:56,999
通常在第13个交易日的前后

242
00:10:56,999 --> 00:10:59,679
容易出现突发性的暴力反弹

243
00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:02,328
也就是下周一或者周二

244
00:11:02,328 --> 00:11:06,089
但是呢在没有看到长下影线之前

245
00:11:06,089 --> 00:11:08,799
不能够盲目的重仓抄底呃

246
00:11:08,799 --> 00:11:13,120
目前只能够利用嗯股价偏离5日均线的机会哈

247
00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:15,568
做做超短线的强反弹

248
00:11:15,568 --> 00:11:16,408
但是呢

249
00:11:16,408 --> 00:11:20,609
就不要指望在10日均线和月均线的下方盘

250
00:11:20,609 --> 00:11:21,460
做多啦

251
00:11:21,460 --> 00:11:22,620
从我个人来说

252
00:11:22,620 --> 00:11:26,429
其实我现在吧对这些巨头都有点趣味了

253
00:11:26,429 --> 00:11:27,789
法律风险啦

254
00:11:27,789 --> 00:11:29,509
AI颠覆风险啦

255
00:11:29,509 --> 00:11:30,950
AI泡沫担忧啦

256
00:11:30,950 --> 00:11:32,789
反正层出不穷啊

257
00:11:32,789 --> 00:11:35,620
还是指数简单省心嗯

258
00:11:39,299 --> 00:11:41,139
避险股都不能够避险了

259
00:11:41,139 --> 00:11:43,980
大家还记得前天给的这张图表吗

260
00:11:43,980 --> 00:11:44,779
就是现在

261
00:11:44,779 --> 00:11:48,490
美股市场已经失去了分散风险的可能性

262
00:11:48,490 --> 00:11:52,169
取而代之的标普500成份股齐涨齐跌哈

263
00:11:52,169 --> 00:11:55,149
做深商好量化基金为了对冲风险了

264
00:11:55,149 --> 00:11:57,350
就进行集体踩踏了

265
00:11:57,350 --> 00:11:59,370
没有什么绝对的避风感

266
00:11:59,370 --> 00:12:02,250
这时候大家就不要去开超市

267
00:12:02,250 --> 00:12:04,309
买一大堆的个股了嗯

268
00:12:04,309 --> 00:12:06,529
把资金集中集拢

269
00:12:06,529 --> 00:12:09,490
只盯着大盘指数与少数几只

270
00:12:09,490 --> 00:12:11,830
自己最看好的个股就行了

271
00:12:11,830 --> 00:12:13,019
免得买一大堆

272
00:12:13,019 --> 00:12:15,139
最后各有各的亏乏

273
00:12:15,139 --> 00:12:16,940
这个周末还是那句话

274
00:12:16,940 --> 00:12:18,889
大家就不要看太多呃

275
00:12:18,889 --> 00:12:20,210
新闻太担心了

276
00:12:20,210 --> 00:12:21,169
如果不打仗

277
00:12:21,169 --> 00:12:23,429
那一切OK如果打仗了

278
00:12:23,429 --> 00:12:24,389
也别害怕啊

279
00:12:24,389 --> 00:12:28,099
全面开战比这样子拖着反正要好得多

280
00:12:28,099 --> 00:12:32,239
下周一下周二哈就可能会出现超跌反弹了啊

281
00:12:32,239 --> 00:12:34,099
所以这个周末我们就好好休息

282
00:12:34,099 --> 00:12:35,559
那我们下次见拜拜

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