【Rayner Teo】如何在股市崩盘中获利？揭秘职业交易员的均值回归策略

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嘿

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嘿

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最近怎么样

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我的朋友

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所以你可能被教导要买入上涨的股票

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毕竟

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你知道要顺应趋势交易

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对吧，顺势而为

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然后以更高价格卖出

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但这里有个关键点

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一些最佳交易机会并非来自买入上涨的股票

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事实上是买入正在下跌的股票在价格下跌时

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你可能觉得我疯了，是不是我脑子有问题

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听我解释

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因为在这段视频里

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我要向你展示

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专业交易者用来获利的最简单且被误解的策略之一

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当股票暂时暴跌时

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这就是我们所说的均值回归交易

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好的

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首先

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均值回归交易到底是什么

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关于均值回归交易

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市场不会单向持续上涨

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相反它们会上涨

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先创出低点

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然后更高点上涨

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出现回调

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等等

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关键理念是

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价格在交易中围绕平均值波动

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我们称之为均值

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有时价格会大幅高于平均值

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有时会大幅低于平均值

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但长期来看会回归中间

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回归平均值

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回归均值

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这就是均值回归交易的核心

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价格偏离均值过远时

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往往会回弹向均值

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现在你可以想象成橡皮筋

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如果我拿一根橡皮筋

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好的，当我拉得越长

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拉得越远

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回弹到原状的力就越强

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同意

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股票价格也是如此

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当股价远离均值过远时

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远离平均值

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存在自然力使其回弹向平均值

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趋向均值

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这就是均值回归交易在起作用

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你可以想象成妻子的情绪

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就在你忘记结婚纪念日时

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如果你忘记结婚

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你的结婚纪念日

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妻子的情绪会迅速下降

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像从百层楼坠落的巨石

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但最终通过足够多的道歉

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鲜花和故事

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妻子或木头最终会回归均值，同样的道理在这里，之后

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我将与你分享一个均值回归交易系统

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包含精确的交易规则

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何时买入和卖出

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无需猜测

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但首先你需要理解为什么均值回归交易有效

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这就是我现在要分享的内容

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那么为什么均值回归交易有效

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尽管其他人似乎都知道这一点

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答案很简单

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至少比你想象的简单

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市场由恐惧和贪婪等情绪驱动

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始终如此，未来亦然

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这就是价格波动的原因

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当价格快速下跌时

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当它崩盘时

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会发生有趣的事情

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交易者恐慌

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弱势持有者

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他们卖出

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止损单被触发

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恐惧骤增

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抛售自我强化

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一个人卖出

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推低价格

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下一个人卖出

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然后不知不觉

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出现抛售压力的连锁反应和雪崩

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并吓到下一个卖家，如此循环

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就像踩踏事件

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当一个人冲出市场时

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突然所有人都跟着跑

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甚至不知所措的人

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哦

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我们快跑吧

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我也要跑

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所以

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这里有个关键点

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这种抛压往往被夸大

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这是过度反应

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让我给你一个现实中的例子

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想象一家稳健的公司

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可能像苹果这样的公司

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谷歌等等

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它有良好的盈利

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强劲的资产负债表

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管理团队运作良好

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公司本身没有根本性问题

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但某天整个市场因经济冲击陷入恐慌

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比如可能爆发战争

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地缘政治紧张

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利率上升

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无论什么情况

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整个市场随后暴跌崩溃

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那这家好公司会怎样

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股价两天内暴跌10%

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现在股价下跌并非因为公司存在问题

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而是因为所有人恐慌抛售

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与此同时

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就像

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你知道的

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教室里一个孩子

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当一个孩子哭起来

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接下来

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你知道的

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两个孩子开始哭泣

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整个教室都充满哭泣的孩子

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就像病毒在传播

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接下来通常会发生什么

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嗯

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恐慌情绪最终消退

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理性买家进场

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他们看到股票因非基本面原因被低估

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于是买入

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随后股价回升

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这就是均值回归的本质

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你买入过度反应，卖出复苏

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现在

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我知道你可能在想

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但雷奥

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如果这不是过度反应呢

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如果股价持续下跌变便宜

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变得越来越便宜

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好问题

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这也是大多数交易者犯错的地方

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好的

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我会告诉你

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作为均值回归交易者需要避免的误区

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但现阶段先理解均值回归交易原理

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其核心在于

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你知道吗

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他们通过反应进行射击

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为均值回归交易者创造机会

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现在你已经理解了这个概念

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你已经了解了均值回归交易

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它是如何运作以及为何有效

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我要与你分享一个实际的均值回归交易系统

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基于二十五年的数据支持

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那我们开始吧

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好的

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现在让我详细讲解这个均值回归交易系统的规则

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顺便说一下，我接下来要分享的内容仅用于教育目的

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千万不要在实盘账户中直接操作

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第二天

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请做好功课

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进行测试

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进行回测

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这是我律师让我这么说的

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好的

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我没有律师

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但假如我有律师

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这就是我的律师会让我说的话

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请做好功课

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在投入真实资金前务必测试

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对于这个均值回归交易系统

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我们交易的是标普1000指数成分股

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一千指数

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这些是最大的

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美国一千只股票

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时间框架为日线

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这一点很重要

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风险管理

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每只股票投入资本的20%，最多五只仓位

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这意味着

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假设你有1万美元交易资金

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想要使用这个系统交易

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这意味着每只股票最多分配不超过2000美元

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为什么是2000美元因为这是资本的20%

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如果你有1万美元资本

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20%就是2000美元

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如果你有

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假设同时做多五只股票

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2000乘以五

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你会发现总金额正好是1万美元

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这正好是你的全部资金

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因此该系统不使用杠杆

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这就是我们管理风险和仓位规模的方式

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接下来

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我们来详细讨论交易规则

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这些规则使系统实现了2830%的收益

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过去二十五年上涨了百分之四

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首先我们要确保股票位于

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200日移动平均线上方

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因为处于上升趋势的股票

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根据我的研究

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甚至学院研究

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处于上升趋势的股票

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其他可能继续上涨的股票

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因此我们要避免买入处于下跌趋势的股票

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我们要避免买入低价股票

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因为这些正是

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这些股票

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你知道低价会变得更便宜

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因此要避开这类股票

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我们的操作方式是

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确保股票位于200日移动平均线之上

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以定义回调阶段

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以定义橡皮筋拉伸阶段

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需确认股票收盘价低于下轨布林带

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我们的布林带参数基于20日移动平均线

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好的，标准差设置为2.5

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大多数平台的默认设置是20日移动平均线和2倍标准差

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但我们采用2.5倍标准差

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因为我们希望

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你知道

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寻找更大的橡皮筋拉伸幅度

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如果你明白我的意思

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一旦确认这一点

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接下来我们要设置三倍限价单

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基于前一日收盘价

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具体操作如下

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假设条件一和二成立

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且股票收盘价为100美元

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那么如何设置三倍限价单

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即收盘价乘以0.97

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这样得到97美元

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这是我们在经纪账户中设置的买入限价单

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不用担心

239
00:09:04,740 --> 00:09:07,599
如果这些内容对你来说有点模糊

240
00:09:07,599 --> 00:09:10,399
稍后我会通过交易示例详细讲解

241
00:09:10,399 --> 00:09:14,288
在聊天记录四中你可以看到具体操作

242
00:09:14,288 --> 00:09:15,229
如果订单成交

243
00:09:15,229 --> 00:09:18,928
则在2日RSI突破50或10个交易日后卖出

244
00:09:18,928 --> 00:09:20,629
这是我们的退出条件

245
00:09:20,629 --> 00:09:22,230
提示我们何时卖出

246
00:09:22,230 --> 00:09:24,269
何时退出持仓

247
00:09:24,269 --> 00:09:28,110
当2日RSI在10个交易日后突破50

248
00:09:28,470 --> 00:09:30,789
这就是我之前提到的参数设置

249
00:09:30,789 --> 00:09:31,629
总之

250
00:09:31,629 --> 00:09:33,389
如果你想查看图表

251
00:09:33,389 --> 00:09:34,269
看起来像这样

252
00:09:34,269 --> 00:09:37,669
让我给你展示一个更清晰的屏幕

253
00:09:37,669 --> 00:09:40,750
股票处于两日移动均线之上的上升趋势中

254
00:09:40,750 --> 00:09:42,279
然后出现回调

255
00:09:42,279 --> 00:09:43,340
好的，此时此刻

256
00:09:43,340 --> 00:09:45,320
假设这里有一个球形阻力带

257
00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:46,980
我来大致画个示意图

258
00:09:46,980 --> 00:09:49,919
股票收盘价跌破下轨布林带

259
00:09:49,919 --> 00:09:50,839
好的

260
00:09:50,839 --> 00:09:53,318
接下来我们要在此处设置买入限价单

261
00:09:53,318 --> 00:09:57,490
如果次日股价继续下跌并触及我们的买入限价单

262
00:09:57,490 --> 00:09:59,009
我们将做多持仓

263
00:09:59,009 --> 00:09:59,529
好的

264
00:09:59,529 --> 00:10:01,269
当股价反弹时

265
00:10:01,269 --> 00:10:01,570
好的

266
00:10:01,570 --> 00:10:02,269
开始反弹

267
00:10:02,269 --> 00:10:02,490
它

268
00:10:02,490 --> 00:10:04,970
反弹至高位收盘

269
00:10:04,970 --> 00:10:05,649
好的

270
00:10:05,649 --> 00:10:06,769
我们将卖出

271
00:10:06,769 --> 00:10:08,570
你可以看到这个系统

272
00:10:08,570 --> 00:10:12,679
我们计划在布林带低位附近买入

273
00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:15,740
然后在首次反弹时卖出

274
00:10:15,740 --> 00:10:17,720
现在让我带你看一个

275
00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:20,639
你可以看到它的样子

276
00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:24,720
好的

277
00:10:24,720 --> 00:10:26,480
这是特斯拉的走势图

278
00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:29,039
如果你还记得我们的交易规则

279
00:10:29,039 --> 00:10:32,789
首先股票必须位于200日移动均线上方

280
00:10:32,789 --> 00:10:33,970
如果你在TradingView平台

281
00:10:33,970 --> 00:10:35,350
或任何其他交易软件

282
00:10:35,350 --> 00:10:36,730
只需查找移动平均线

283
00:10:36,730 --> 00:10:39,000
我来帮你找到

284
00:10:39,320 --> 00:10:39,820
好的

285
00:10:39,820 --> 00:10:41,480
这是一个简单移动平均线

286
00:10:41,480 --> 00:10:43,759
点击这里会出现这条蓝色线

287
00:10:43,759 --> 00:10:47,129
我们需要确认是200日移动平均线

288
00:10:47,129 --> 00:10:48,250
我切换到200日

289
00:10:48,250 --> 00:10:51,828
我喜欢黑色的200日均线样式

290
00:10:51,828 --> 00:10:52,428
好的

291
00:10:52,428 --> 00:10:53,509
现在可以看到股价

292
00:10:53,509 --> 00:10:57,749
当前位于这条200日均线之上

293
00:10:57,749 --> 00:11:04,240
接下来需要确认股价收盘价跌破下轨布林带

294
00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:05,179
进入指标设置

295
00:11:05,179 --> 00:11:07,639
寻找布林带指标

296
00:11:07,639 --> 00:11:08,480
已找到

297
00:11:08,480 --> 00:11:11,919
点击并调整参数

298
00:11:11,919 --> 00:11:13,960
需要更改的只有

299
00:11:13,960 --> 00:11:14,759
我之前提到过

300
00:11:14,759 --> 00:11:19,278
默认设置通常是20周期移动平均和两倍标准差

301
00:11:19,278 --> 00:11:20,359
我们将采用两点

302
00:11:20,359 --> 00:11:22,798
五倍标准差来拓宽区间

303
00:11:22,798 --> 00:11:25,058
确保我们的橡皮筋足够

304
00:11:25,058 --> 00:11:25,970
你知道的

305
00:11:25,970 --> 00:11:28,549
拉伸更远点击确认

306
00:11:28,549 --> 00:11:29,409
就是这样

307
00:11:29,409 --> 00:11:30,250
你可以在这里看到

308
00:11:30,250 --> 00:11:30,769
现在

309
00:11:30,769 --> 00:11:31,629
这其实是

310
00:11:31,629 --> 00:11:33,909
图表上的布林带

311
00:11:33,909 --> 00:11:35,049
这是日本上轨线

312
00:11:35,049 --> 00:11:36,110
这是日本下轨线

313
00:11:36,110 --> 00:11:37,769
然后这是移动平均线

314
00:11:37,769 --> 00:11:42,039
所以我们需要观察股价是否收盘跌破此处的绿色线

315
00:11:42,039 --> 00:11:44,980
它确实做到了，现在这个点位

316
00:11:44,980 --> 00:11:47,659
条件一和二已满足

317
00:11:47,659 --> 00:11:49,419
条件一是股价高于

318
00:11:49,419 --> 00:11:50,620
一日移动平均线

319
00:11:50,620 --> 00:11:51,859
条件二

320
00:11:51,859 --> 00:11:54,399
股价收盘跌破日本下轨线

321
00:11:54,399 --> 00:11:55,139
条件三

322
00:11:55,139 --> 00:11:59,240
现在我们将挂单三%限价单

323
00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:01,460
基于前一日收盘价

324
00:12:01,460 --> 00:12:03,080
那么前一日收盘价是多少

325
00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:03,879
如果你看这里

326
00:12:03,879 --> 00:12:06,649
让我标出这条水平线

327
00:12:06,649 --> 00:12:07,048
好的

328
00:12:07,048 --> 00:12:09,870
我将其改为黑色即可

329
00:12:09,870 --> 00:12:11,389
这就是前一日收盘价

330
00:12:11,389 --> 00:12:12,149
你可以在这里看到

331
00:12:12,149 --> 00:12:13,629
是401.99

332
00:12:13,629 --> 00:12:14,909
所以我只需输入

333
00:12:14,909 --> 00:12:17,820
401.99

334
00:12:17,820 --> 00:12:22,879
由此处黑色线表示，挂单三%限价单

335
00:12:22,879 --> 00:12:25,460
我将其乘以0.97

336
00:12:25,460 --> 00:12:27,919
计算结果为

337
00:12:27,919 --> 00:12:31,000
使用我的计算器

338
00:12:31,240 --> 00:12:35,440
389.93389.93

339
00:12:35,440 --> 00:12:39,519
接下来我要挂单买入限价单389.93

340
00:12:39,519 --> 00:12:39,980
好的

341
00:12:39,980 --> 00:12:43,019
让我们看389.93

342
00:12:43,019 --> 00:12:44,529
我将其改为绿色

343
00:12:44,529 --> 00:12:46,649
表示这是买入限价单

344
00:12:46,649 --> 00:12:49,090
观察次日是否成交

345
00:12:49,090 --> 00:12:51,409
我可以告诉你一定会成交

346
00:12:51,409 --> 00:12:54,549
因为这是精心挑选的图表看吧

347
00:12:54,549 --> 00:12:54,929
就是这样

348
00:12:54,929 --> 00:12:55,110
好的

349
00:12:55,110 --> 00:12:56,289
这个绿色K线

350
00:12:56,289 --> 00:12:56,789
好的

351
00:12:56,789 --> 00:12:57,070
嗯

352
00:12:57,070 --> 00:12:57,789
你可以在这里看到

353
00:12:57,789 --> 00:13:00,379
当日最低价出现在这个价位

354
00:13:00,379 --> 00:13:02,600
显然这就是我们获取燃料的位置

355
00:13:02,600 --> 00:13:04,080
如果你使用至少一个不错的经纪商

356
00:13:04,080 --> 00:13:05,860
除非你使用一些奇怪的经纪商

357
00:13:05,860 --> 00:13:07,940
那种让你感觉不好的

358
00:13:07,940 --> 00:13:10,730
否则你应该很可能在树上成交

359
00:13:10,730 --> 00:13:12,509
现在我们处于多头头寸

360
00:13:12,509 --> 00:13:14,750
那么我们现在何时退出树状结构

361
00:13:14,750 --> 00:13:20,450
如果你还记得，当两日RSI突破50线时

362
00:13:20,450 --> 00:13:22,409
或者在十个交易日后

363
00:13:22,409 --> 00:13:24,490
十个交易日是时间止损

364
00:13:24,490 --> 00:13:27,049
因为有时股价会持续暴跌

365
00:13:27,049 --> 00:13:27,549
日复一日

366
00:13:27,549 --> 00:13:29,538
毫无止境地

367
00:13:29,538 --> 00:13:33,250
这就是我们的时间止损机制以避免进一步损失

368
00:13:33,250 --> 00:13:35,370
这就是时间止损的用法

369
00:13:35,370 --> 00:13:36,149
但大多数情况下

370
00:13:36,149 --> 00:13:39,659
通常我们会在两日RSI突破50时退出

371
00:13:39,659 --> 00:13:42,720
现在我只需调出RSI指标

372
00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:45,039
观察何时收盘突破

373
00:13:45,039 --> 00:13:47,519
当两日RSI突破50时

374
00:13:47,519 --> 00:13:49,750
RSI周期调整为两天

375
00:13:49,750 --> 00:13:52,409
不需要移动平均线

376
00:13:52,409 --> 00:13:53,289
点击无

377
00:13:53,289 --> 00:13:54,009
好的

378
00:13:54,009 --> 00:13:55,110
然后点击确定

379
00:13:55,110 --> 00:13:57,250
现在你可以看到RSI数值

380
00:13:57,250 --> 00:13:58,940
我将在图表上展示

381
00:13:58,940 --> 00:14:00,500
当前值为16.27

382
00:14:00,500 --> 00:14:02,419
我们等待其突破50

383
00:14:02,419 --> 00:14:03,100
让我们看看

384
00:14:03,100 --> 00:14:03,419
会发生什么

385
00:14:04,539 --> 00:14:04,759
好的

386
00:14:04,759 --> 00:14:06,839
现在是41点还未达到

387
00:14:06,839 --> 00:14:14,679
现在是20点还未到，41点仍未，15点仍不足，9点也未触发，突然飙升

388
00:14:14,679 --> 00:14:15,179
84点

389
00:14:15,179 --> 00:14:16,610
你可以在这里看到

390
00:14:16,610 --> 00:14:17,850
我哪里得到84点

391
00:14:17,850 --> 00:14:19,129
看这里的数据

392
00:14:19,129 --> 00:14:21,490
两日RSI当前值为84

393
00:14:21,490 --> 00:14:24,210
我们正在观察这个

394
00:14:24,210 --> 00:14:26,789
底部这条线与另一条线

395
00:14:26,789 --> 00:14:28,470
我们之前关注的那条线

396
00:14:28,470 --> 00:14:29,490
数值正在上升

397
00:14:29,490 --> 00:14:30,710
现在已达到84点

398
00:14:30,710 --> 00:14:34,159
这就是退出交易的信号

399
00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:37,240
接下来我们将平仓这只股票

400
00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:38,299
并在次日开盘

401
00:14:38,299 --> 00:14:40,720
所以当股价突破到这里时

402
00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:42,179
或者说当你在这里开仓时

403
00:14:42,179 --> 00:14:44,440
让我在这里标出阻力线

404
00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:45,480
在这里开仓

405
00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:46,440
好的

406
00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:49,559
这就是我们平仓这个仓位的位置

407
00:14:49,559 --> 00:14:52,259
你可以看到绿色线或买入限价单是我们买入的位置

408
00:14:52,259 --> 00:14:54,620
而红色线是我们卖出的位置

409
00:14:54,620 --> 00:14:55,340
所以我们可以看到

410
00:14:55,340 --> 00:14:56,519
本质上这个交易系统

411
00:14:56,519 --> 00:15:00,059
我们正在寻找上升趋势中的回踩买入机会

412
00:15:00,059 --> 00:15:02,940
当股票反弹到此处时卖出

413
00:15:02,940 --> 00:15:07,779
从而捕捉市场中的单次波动行情

414
00:15:11,039 --> 00:15:18,139
我之前分享的是一种客观交易规则和系统

415
00:15:18,139 --> 00:15:21,779
这些规则不需要任何主观判断

416
00:15:21,779 --> 00:15:22,899
猜猜看或者任何其他情况

417
00:15:22,899 --> 00:15:24,929
由于规则是客观的

418
00:15:24,929 --> 00:15:27,129
你可以测试过去

419
00:15:27,129 --> 00:15:31,429
比如十年二十年的数据，观察这个交易系统的表现

420
00:15:31,429 --> 00:15:33,769
让我们看看所以

421
00:15:33,769 --> 00:15:33,970
这里

422
00:15:33,970 --> 00:15:38,830
这是该均值回归交易系统的回测结果，覆盖了过去两

423
00:15:38,830 --> 00:15:39,850
五年

424
00:15:39,850 --> 00:15:40,929
如你所见在这里

425
00:15:40,929 --> 00:15:43,529
我将简要带你看一下表格数据

426
00:15:43,529 --> 00:15:45,009
这是二千年的年份

427
00:15:45,009 --> 00:15:48,818
该系统在九七年中期实现了百分之九十七的收益

428
00:15:48,818 --> 00:15:50,379
甚至可以看到周一的波动情况

429
00:15:50,379 --> 00:15:52,099
一月份周一上涨了十二个百分点

430
00:15:52,099 --> 00:15:53,899
二月份上涨零点三个百分点

431
00:15:53,899 --> 00:15:55,059
等等

432
00:15:55,059 --> 00:15:57,019
然后到二零零四年

433
00:15:57,019 --> 00:15:58,259
亏损了七点

434
00:15:58,259 --> 00:15:58,980
八个百分点

435
00:15:58,980 --> 00:15:59,960
二零二四年

436
00:15:59,960 --> 00:16:01,019
在二零二九年中期

437
00:16:01,019 --> 00:16:04,849
你可以自行查看这些数据非常直观

438
00:16:04,849 --> 00:16:07,269
如果你观察该系统的权益曲线

439
00:16:07,269 --> 00:16:11,969
可以看到过去二十五年持续盈利

440
00:16:11,969 --> 00:16:14,080
这是权益曲线的起点

441
00:16:14,080 --> 00:16:16,179
这是二零二四年的终点

442
00:16:16,179 --> 00:16:18,559
形成一系列更高的高点和低点

443
00:16:18,559 --> 00:16:20,100
也就是持续上涨

444
00:16:20,100 --> 00:16:22,220
在此过程中会有回撤

445
00:16:22,220 --> 00:16:23,600
并非一条直线

446
00:16:23,600 --> 00:16:26,009
或途中的这些回撤

447
00:16:26,009 --> 00:16:28,450
但如果你坚持遵循这个交易系统的规则

448
00:16:28,450 --> 00:16:29,918
你会获利

449
00:16:29,918 --> 00:16:30,619
你会获利

450
00:16:30,619 --> 00:16:31,078
你

451
00:16:31,078 --> 00:16:31,719
你已经上来了

452
00:16:31,719 --> 00:16:33,269
你知道很多内幕

453
00:16:33,710 --> 00:16:39,210
在过去的二十五年里你可以看到平均年回报率约为十四点

454
00:16:39,210 --> 00:16:39,669
四

455
00:16:39,669 --> 00:16:40,830
七个百分点对吧

456
00:16:40,830 --> 00:16:42,610
轻松跑赢标普五百指数

457
00:16:42,610 --> 00:16:43,710
这还没完对吧

458
00:16:43,710 --> 00:16:46,980
这里的最大回撤是百分之二十四

459
00:16:46,980 --> 00:16:47,419
好的

460
00:16:47,419 --> 00:16:48,419
我不确定你能不能看到

461
00:16:48,419 --> 00:16:48,960
不过确实

462
00:16:48,960 --> 00:16:51,409
这是年化回报

463
00:16:51,409 --> 00:16:53,009
这是最大回撤

464
00:16:53,009 --> 00:16:54,929
并与标普五百指数对比

465
00:16:54,929 --> 00:16:58,409
我相信标普五百指数过去二十五年的最大回撤约为

466
00:16:58,409 --> 00:17:00,339
五五十六个百分点

467
00:17:00,339 --> 00:17:04,138
你可以看到该系统的胜率约为百分之六十六

468
00:17:04,138 --> 00:17:05,739
胜率接近百分之七十

469
00:17:05,739 --> 00:17:09,410
该交易系统的胜率为百分之六十六

470
00:17:09,410 --> 00:17:13,769
总体来看这是一个具备市场优势的交易系统

471
00:17:13,769 --> 00:17:16,049
并且有望持续有效对吧

472
00:17:16,049 --> 00:17:19,369
基于我之前分享的原因

473
00:17:22,339 --> 00:17:26,839
现在让我分享交易者常犯的三个错误

474
00:17:26,839 --> 00:17:30,170
在使用均值回归策略时

475
00:17:31,289 --> 00:17:31,970
第一个错误

476
00:17:31,970 --> 00:17:34,230
他们在下跌趋势中买入股票

477
00:17:34,230 --> 00:17:35,509
所以记住之前

478
00:17:35,509 --> 00:17:38,420
我们只在上涨趋势中买入股票

479
00:17:38,420 --> 00:17:40,180
股价高于两日移动平均线

480
00:17:40,180 --> 00:17:41,180
但有些交易者

481
00:17:41,180 --> 00:17:41,559
你知道的

482
00:17:41,559 --> 00:17:42,259
跳过步骤

483
00:17:42,259 --> 00:17:44,259
忽略两百日移动平均线

484
00:17:44,259 --> 00:17:45,519
他们看到一只股票

485
00:17:45,519 --> 00:17:45,799
你知道的

486
00:17:45,799 --> 00:17:47,359
从高点下跌了四五十个百分点

487
00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:48,529
然后自言自语

488
00:17:48,529 --> 00:17:49,450
哦天啊

489
00:17:49,450 --> 00:17:49,849
雷纳

490
00:17:49,849 --> 00:17:50,730
这是一笔 bargain

491
00:17:50,730 --> 00:17:51,329
这是一只

492
00:17:51,329 --> 00:17:52,509
这是一只低价股

493
00:17:52,509 --> 00:17:54,588
它必须反弹

494
00:17:54,588 --> 00:17:56,449
它不必反弹

495
00:17:56,449 --> 00:17:57,788
它不必做什么

496
00:17:57,788 --> 00:18:00,409
处于下跌趋势的股票

497
00:18:00,409 --> 00:18:02,680
可能持续下跌

498
00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:03,640
现在很 cheap

499
00:18:03,640 --> 00:18:05,299
可能变得更 cheap

500
00:18:05,299 --> 00:18:07,420
这不是均值回归交易

501
00:18:07,420 --> 00:18:09,888
这是一只正在暴跌的股票

502
00:18:09,888 --> 00:18:12,949
这是一只注定跌入谷底的股票

503
00:18:12,949 --> 00:18:15,500
它不会回来吃晚餐了

504
00:18:15,500 --> 00:18:17,039
均值回归确实有效

505
00:18:17,039 --> 00:18:21,539
当你在健康上升趋势中买入短期回调

506
00:18:22,579 --> 00:18:26,729
这里的关键是上升趋势中的回调

507
00:18:26,729 --> 00:18:29,308
这只股票已处于下跌趋势六个月

508
00:18:29,308 --> 00:18:30,509
长达八个月或更久

509
00:18:30,509 --> 00:18:33,730
这就不属于上升趋势中的回调

510
00:18:33,730 --> 00:18:35,970
这不是深跌的新常态

511
00:18:35,970 --> 00:18:36,490
而是

512
00:18:36,490 --> 00:18:36,869
你知道的

513
00:18:36,869 --> 00:18:38,670
就像从悬崖跳下

514
00:18:38,670 --> 00:18:42,130
第二个错误是没有风险管理

515
00:18:42,130 --> 00:18:43,250
所以这里的关键是

516
00:18:43,250 --> 00:18:45,900
即便是最好的均值回归系统

517
00:18:45,900 --> 00:18:48,819
也会经历亏损连败

518
00:18:48,819 --> 00:18:55,369
早期亏损概率约有三到三%

519
00:18:55,609 --> 00:18:57,329
问题在于当你亏损时

520
00:18:57,329 --> 00:18:59,190
会损失多少

521
00:18:59,190 --> 00:19:03,549
如果你将全部交易资金投入一只股票

522
00:19:03,549 --> 00:19:04,549
当股票下跌时

523
00:19:04,549 --> 00:19:05,630
你知道可能跌去50%到60%

524
00:19:05,630 --> 00:19:08,269
这样的损失会非常痛苦

525
00:19:08,269 --> 00:19:10,579
或者如果买入的股票

526
00:19:10,579 --> 00:19:12,140
你知道它是欺诈性的

527
00:19:12,140 --> 00:19:12,980
你可能会损失更多

528
00:19:12,980 --> 00:19:15,650
几乎全部交易资金

529
00:19:15,650 --> 00:19:16,769
所以单押一次

530
00:19:16,769 --> 00:19:16,930
真的

531
00:19:16,930 --> 00:19:17,269
你知道的

532
00:19:17,269 --> 00:19:18,230
可能让你受伤

533
00:19:18,230 --> 00:19:21,989
但若分散到十只股票

534
00:19:21,989 --> 00:19:24,888
亏损现在更容易管理

535
00:19:24,888 --> 00:19:27,128
因为损失只是资本的一部分

536
00:19:27,128 --> 00:19:29,319
可以轻松忽略继续操作

537
00:19:29,319 --> 00:19:30,240
所以风险管理

538
00:19:30,240 --> 00:19:31,799
并不性感

539
00:19:31,799 --> 00:19:32,799
没人会

540
00:19:32,799 --> 00:19:33,099
你知道的

541
00:19:33,099 --> 00:19:36,159
拍病毒式YouTube视频讲风险管理

542
00:19:36,159 --> 00:19:37,159
凯利准则

543
00:19:37,159 --> 00:19:39,419
但这才是区分

544
00:19:39,419 --> 00:19:41,038
长期存活的交易者

545
00:19:41,038 --> 00:19:43,138
与爆仓的交易者

546
00:19:43,138 --> 00:19:45,069
然后抱怨交易是骗局

547
00:19:45,069 --> 00:19:48,210
第三个误区是无计划交易

548
00:19:48,210 --> 00:19:51,069
没有回测规则的交易

549
00:19:51,349 --> 00:19:51,910
我理解

550
00:19:51,910 --> 00:19:56,210
你知道你看过YouTube上Rea Tube的视频

551
00:19:56,210 --> 00:19:58,349
他谈到均值回归交易策略

552
00:19:58,349 --> 00:19:59,740
你以为自己很了不起

553
00:19:59,740 --> 00:20:02,039
我直接看图表估算

554
00:20:02,039 --> 00:20:05,099
寻找被过度炒作的股票然后买入

555
00:20:05,099 --> 00:20:06,700
但这不是系统化交易

556
00:20:06,700 --> 00:20:08,869
这是主观交易

557
00:20:08,869 --> 00:20:12,089
披着均值回归的外衣

558
00:20:12,089 --> 00:20:16,069
这就是大多数交易者结果不稳定的原因

559
00:20:16,069 --> 00:20:18,500
因为你有回测过的规则

560
00:20:18,500 --> 00:20:21,759
可以用历史数据验证的规则

561
00:20:21,759 --> 00:20:24,970
你排除了情绪因素

562
00:20:24,970 --> 00:20:27,609
不再依赖直觉

563
00:20:27,609 --> 00:20:30,079
感觉或情绪

564
00:20:30,079 --> 00:20:30,680
相反

565
00:20:30,680 --> 00:20:32,539
你依靠数学方法

566
00:20:32,539 --> 00:20:35,759
经过验证的数学策略

567
00:20:36,190 --> 00:20:42,089
数据明确告诉你何时买入何时卖出无需猜测

568
00:20:42,089 --> 00:20:44,049
当你的操作保持一致

569
00:20:44,049 --> 00:20:46,809
就能获得稳定结果

570
00:20:46,809 --> 00:20:47,269
现在

571
00:20:47,269 --> 00:20:49,970
我要管理你的预期

572
00:20:49,970 --> 00:20:52,230
我会坦诚相告

573
00:20:52,230 --> 00:20:55,579
即使这可能不是你想听的

574
00:20:55,579 --> 00:20:58,680
正确执行的均值回归策略

575
00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:01,140
通常具有某些特征

576
00:21:01,140 --> 00:21:04,150
你需要了解这些特征

577
00:21:04,150 --> 00:21:05,910
在开始交易前

578
00:21:05,910 --> 00:21:08,359
这个系统首先

579
00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:11,500
均值回归系统往往胜率较高

580
00:21:11,500 --> 00:21:14,259
在60%甚至高达70%

581
00:21:14,259 --> 00:21:14,819
胜率

582
00:21:14,819 --> 00:21:15,539
你可能有

583
00:21:15,539 --> 00:21:16,660
你知道65%

584
00:21:16,660 --> 00:21:17,579
67%的胜率

585
00:21:17,579 --> 00:21:18,180
胜率

586
00:21:18,180 --> 00:21:19,079
这听起来很棒

587
00:21:19,079 --> 00:21:20,150
确实胜率

588
00:21:20,150 --> 00:21:22,240
你知道七成胜率

589
00:21:22,240 --> 00:21:24,920
但这里有个关键点在你开始

590
00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:28,160
脑海中想着买跑车或租 penthouse 时

591
00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:28,960
或者诸如此类

592
00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:33,880
你也必须明白伴随的是小额利润

593
00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:37,400
每笔交易的利润通常较小

594
00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:39,769
不追求捕捉大趋势

595
00:21:39,769 --> 00:21:42,410
只捕捉市场短期反弹

596
00:21:42,410 --> 00:21:43,710
正如之前所说

597
00:21:43,710 --> 00:21:46,130
所以平均胜率可能

598
00:21:46,130 --> 00:21:47,369
你知道两到三个百分点

599
00:21:47,369 --> 00:21:49,829
而平均亏损交易可能达三

600
00:21:49,829 --> 00:21:50,509
四个百分点

601
00:21:50,509 --> 00:21:53,779
哪一个比你的获胜者平均尺寸还要大

602
00:21:53,779 --> 00:21:54,819
这意味着

603
00:21:54,819 --> 00:21:56,039
尽管你正在获胜

604
00:21:56,039 --> 00:21:56,460
通常情况下

605
00:21:56,460 --> 00:21:57,559
你赢得了很多

606
00:21:57,559 --> 00:22:01,079
每个单独的胜利都不会让你觉得自己很聪明

607
00:22:01,079 --> 00:22:04,880
更像是消防水龙带的持续滴水

608
00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:06,299
并不华丽

609
00:22:06,299 --> 00:22:07,880
你不会发截图

610
00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:09,839
在Instagram上展示你赚到的大钱

611
00:22:09,839 --> 00:22:10,960
但你知道它有效

612
00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:14,119
现在随着时间的推移，这些都会累积起来

613
00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:16,279
让我问你一个问题

614
00:22:16,279 --> 00:22:20,940
你更喜欢一种胜率30%的策略

615
00:22:20,940 --> 00:22:23,259
但有巨额收益

616
00:22:23,259 --> 00:22:27,509
还是胜率70%的策略

617
00:22:27,509 --> 00:22:30,869
但收益相对较小

618
00:22:30,869 --> 00:22:33,420
没有对错之分

619
00:22:33,420 --> 00:22:35,140
这取决于你的性格

620
00:22:35,140 --> 00:22:38,180
我妻子会选择70%的胜率

621
00:22:38,180 --> 00:22:41,839
因为她喜欢永远正确

622
00:22:41,839 --> 00:22:44,069
尤其是当我犯错的时候

623
00:22:44,069 --> 00:22:44,890
总之

624
00:22:44,890 --> 00:22:46,670
均值回归交易系统

625
00:22:46,670 --> 00:22:48,309
属于第二类

626
00:22:48,309 --> 00:22:52,819
高胜率但每笔交易利润较小

627
00:22:52,819 --> 00:22:56,150
这里也是大家最不愿听到的部分

628
00:22:56,150 --> 00:22:57,690
即使胜率很高

629
00:22:57,690 --> 00:22:59,069
你仍会面临亏损

630
00:22:59,069 --> 00:23:02,180
仍会遇到连续亏损

631
00:23:02,180 --> 00:23:04,460
假设你的胜率是70%

632
00:23:04,460 --> 00:23:06,900
这意味着每十笔交易中

633
00:23:06,900 --> 00:23:08,250
大约有三笔亏损

634
00:23:08,250 --> 00:23:09,809
但这三个亏损

635
00:23:09,809 --> 00:23:11,670
并非均匀分布

636
00:23:11,670 --> 00:23:12,890
有时可能会有五笔

637
00:23:12,890 --> 00:23:13,109
六笔

638
00:23:13,109 --> 00:23:13,369
七笔

639
00:23:13,369 --> 00:23:14,650
八笔连续亏损

640
00:23:14,650 --> 00:23:16,009
这是完全正常的

641
00:23:16,009 --> 00:23:18,509
这是统计学的一部分

642
00:23:18,509 --> 00:23:20,029
并非针对个人

643
00:23:20,029 --> 00:23:21,750
市场并非在针对你

644
00:23:21,750 --> 00:23:23,710
尽管有时你会这么感觉

645
00:23:23,710 --> 00:23:25,759
经历这样的亏损期

646
00:23:25,759 --> 00:23:27,558
你的大脑可能会对你大喊

647
00:23:27,558 --> 00:23:28,219
会说

648
00:23:28,219 --> 00:23:28,499
哦

649
00:23:28,499 --> 00:23:29,719
这不再有效了

650
00:23:29,719 --> 00:23:30,838
是时候改变策略了

651
00:23:30,838 --> 00:23:32,318
是时候寻找更好的东西了

652
00:23:32,318 --> 00:23:32,939
某种东西

653
00:23:32,939 --> 00:23:33,419
你知道的

654
00:23:33,419 --> 00:23:35,380
更强大的雷纳系统

655
00:23:35,380 --> 00:23:36,299
事情是这样的

656
00:23:36,299 --> 00:23:38,160
如果你已经回测过你的交易系统

657
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:40,809
如果你理解了原理和方法

658
00:23:40,809 --> 00:23:41,730
更重要的是

659
00:23:41,730 --> 00:23:44,019
这个交易系统的底层逻辑

660
00:23:44,019 --> 00:23:46,420
你知道它具备数百种优势

661
00:23:46,420 --> 00:23:49,200
你知道亏损期只是噪音

662
00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:51,849
这不过是入场的代价

663
00:23:51,849 --> 00:23:55,210
所以核心结论是

664
00:23:55,210 --> 00:23:58,750
均值回归交易不是快速致富的捷径

665
00:23:58,750 --> 00:24:04,869
这是一种能持续产生稳定收益的系统化交易方法

666
00:24:04,869 --> 00:24:11,190
但前提是你要信任这个过程并遵守规则

667
00:24:11,190 --> 00:24:14,630
我想和大家分享一件很重要的事

668
00:24:15,630 --> 00:24:17,000
专业交易员

669
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:19,980
那些每年都能稳定盈利的交易者

670
00:24:19,980 --> 00:24:21,079
无论是牛市

671
00:24:21,079 --> 00:24:22,039
熊市

672
00:24:23,759 --> 00:24:26,480
他们不会只依赖单一系统

673
00:24:26,480 --> 00:24:30,039
为什么均值回归系统可能表现良好

674
00:24:30,039 --> 00:24:32,299
当市场波动剧烈时

675
00:24:32,299 --> 00:24:34,239
处于区间震荡行情时

676
00:24:34,239 --> 00:24:35,980
但当均值

677
00:24:35,980 --> 00:24:38,500
假设市场处于强劲牛市

678
00:24:38,500 --> 00:24:40,059
缺乏明显回调

679
00:24:40,059 --> 00:24:42,920
均值回归系统大概率会观望

680
00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:47,789
因为在强势趋势中难以入场

681
00:24:47,789 --> 00:24:51,829
这种情况下趋势跟踪或动量系统更有效

682
00:24:51,829 --> 00:24:55,529
这就是为什么组合多个交易系统

683
00:24:55,529 --> 00:24:58,069
能平滑权益曲线

684
00:24:58,069 --> 00:25:02,759
回撤更小，夜夜好眠

685
00:25:02,759 --> 00:25:05,009
这也是为什么专业交易员

686
00:25:05,009 --> 00:25:07,170
会采用多种交易系统

687
00:25:07,170 --> 00:25:09,049
从而在牛熊市都能获利

688
00:25:11,250 --> 00:25:12,470
举个例子

689
00:25:12,470 --> 00:25:13,230
想象一下

690
00:25:13,230 --> 00:25:15,089
你拥有一家餐厅

691
00:25:15,089 --> 00:25:18,230
如果这家餐厅某年表现糟糕

692
00:25:18,230 --> 00:25:20,990
全年收入将大幅下滑

693
00:25:20,990 --> 00:25:22,690
同意，同时

694
00:25:22,690 --> 00:25:25,589
如果你拥有五家不同地点的餐厅

695
00:25:25,589 --> 00:25:29,579
即使其中一家当年表现不佳

696
00:25:29,579 --> 00:25:30,759
即使经营困难

697
00:25:30,759 --> 00:25:35,710
其他餐厅仍能维持整体盈利

698
00:25:35,710 --> 00:25:39,150
这就是拥有多个交易系统的原因

699
00:25:40,309 --> 00:25:42,898
所以如果你想学习多个交易系统

700
00:25:42,898 --> 00:25:46,710
这样你可以平滑回报以适应不同市场环境获利

701
00:25:46,710 --> 00:25:50,730
那就去获取我为你准备的免费培训

702
00:25:50,730 --> 00:25:52,509
链接在视频下方

703
00:25:52,509 --> 00:25:55,029
或者直接访问tradingwithfreer.com/

704
00:25:55,029 --> 00:25:55,630
继续前进

705
00:25:55,630 --> 00:25:57,569
或者在下方描述中查找

706
00:25:57,569 --> 00:26:00,849
这个培训将教会你不止一个

707
00:26:00,849 --> 00:26:04,450
不是两个而是三个不同的交易系统我已分享的第一个

708
00:26:04,450 --> 00:26:07,039
这就是我之前分享的均值回归交易系统

709
00:26:07,039 --> 00:26:09,160
你还将学习趋势跟踪系统

710
00:26:09,160 --> 00:26:11,559
再加上动量交易系统

711
00:26:11,559 --> 00:26:13,980
我将通过具体交易规则和示例为你讲解

712
00:26:13,980 --> 00:26:16,730
所有内容都客观明确

713
00:26:16,730 --> 00:26:18,210
所有内容均可量化

714
00:26:18,210 --> 00:26:20,990
你可以应用这些规则进行测试，验证是否有效

715
00:26:20,990 --> 00:26:22,949
我不想让你仅凭我的话相信

716
00:26:22,949 --> 00:26:26,888
在此过程中我还会提供给你

717
00:26:27,249 --> 00:26:27,648
好的

718
00:26:27,648 --> 00:26:30,528
你可以看到这些不同交易系统的实盘结果

719
00:26:30,528 --> 00:26:31,949
基于回测结果

720
00:26:31,949 --> 00:26:35,549
并提供培训的PDF讲义

721
00:26:35,869 --> 00:26:37,250
交易指南

722
00:26:37,250 --> 00:26:40,269
再加上所有策略的回测报告

723
00:26:40,269 --> 00:26:42,009
所有资料都将免费发送给你

724
00:26:42,009 --> 00:26:42,730
如果你感兴趣的话

725
00:26:42,730 --> 00:26:44,769
请前往tradingwithrainer.com/

726
00:26:44,769 --> 00:26:45,700
输入go

727
00:26:45,700 --> 00:26:47,740
将跳转到此页面

728
00:26:47,740 --> 00:26:50,740
点击右侧橙色按钮，资料将发送至你的邮箱

729
00:26:50,740 --> 00:26:52,309
我会在下方放置链接

730
00:26:52,309 --> 00:26:54,190
获取访问权限

731
00:26:54,190 --> 00:26:56,339
不久后与你再会

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