【NaNa说美股】20260406一赢各表！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是4月6号周一

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全球金融市场安静的有点反弹

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受复活节假期影响

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欧洲和亚太多数市场今天休市

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美股呢在缺乏外盘指引的情况下独自开市

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现在股指盘出集体拉升后全天震荡

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下午一点

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川普就周末营救飞行员行动举行新闻发布会

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讲话中依然提到了伊朗局势

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但是市场波动不大

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明天就是川普设定的最后期限

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现在市场已经进入了赌场压大小的时间

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投资者一边权衡中东停可能性

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一边呢消化上周五公布的强劲非农就业数据

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波动率指数VIX

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今天数在24附近

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虽然最后期限逼近

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但市场并没有表现出真正的恐慌

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多空双方依然在指数关键的年限附近僵持

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由于节日这几个交易日呢

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市场流动性相对清淡

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很多资金没有完全回归交易状态

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虽然技术信号表明市场正在企稳

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但是考虑到本周美国通胀数据即将公布

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油价持续高位震荡

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前景仍不确定

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明天周二的结果将会决定市场接下来是暴利挤空投呢

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还是自由落体

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一旦局势已经进入第六周了

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市场在经历了最初那一波最剧烈的宣泄之后嗯

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当下正处于一个脆弱的平衡期

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这种表面上的平稳更像是一个巨大的筹码真空区

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多空双方都在博弈

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最后结果现在市场瓶颈并不是真的瓶颈哈

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多空都在憋着嘛

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等消息落地之后再决定往哪边冲嗯

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据媒体报道称

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美伊双方呢正通过巴基斯坦

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土耳其等三番商讨一项分两阶段进行的协议方案

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第一阶段是先停火45天

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在此期间重新开放霍尔木兹海峡

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同时就永久结束战事展开谈判

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第二阶段在达成真正意义上的最终协议

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如果谈判需要时间的话

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这个停火期甚至可能继续延长

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所以呢川普再次延长了他给伊朗设定的最后期限

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从原本的周一推迟到了明天

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周二就是4月7号

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这已经是他第二次往后拖了

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川普嘴上说这次不会再改了

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那我们就拭目以待

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看他这一次到底是真的硬了

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还是继续演最后的最后一次

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因为伊朗这一边似乎不同意

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根据伊朗官方媒体的说法

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他们已经通过巴基斯坦转达了立场

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就是拒绝以临时停火作为重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的交换条件

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要求永久结束战争

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并且明确伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的主权

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不知道和伊朗对词是越打越有信心了呢

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还是台上台下两套说辞

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但这个消息出来之后吧

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市场居然也无动于衷

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诶这个股指的反弹坚挺

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说明散户与短线资金哈仍在执着地压住

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最后一刻能够谈成博弈停火力哈

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另外呢今年开局的强劲经济势头也起到了非常重要的缓冲电作用

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上周出的非农报告与零售数据全都超预期增长

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而且冲突爆发以来

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美股整体盈利预期非但没有下降

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反而还往上调了4%

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这说明股市根本就没把最坏的情况当回事儿

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大家之所以敢这么淡定

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很大程度上就是因为原有市场给出的信号并没有指向长期失控

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而那条远期贴水的原有曲线

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把市场的真实心态暴露的很彻底

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简单说就是大伙都在赌这个仗啊

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打不长油价几个月后就会跌回去

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风险也就没了

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既然冲突不会持续到下半年

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那现在的成本激增只是短期波动

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不足以改写全年企业盈利和估值逻辑

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所以呢很多投资者的想法就是

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不是基准情形

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那我就没有必要卖在最恐慌的位置呀

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反正这卖了也不一定买的回来哈

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还不如先躺平了

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继续拿着

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如果市场里很多人都是这种心态的话

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那指数就很难跌透

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从筹码结构来看

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3月份的暴跌呢已经完成了一轮相当彻底的强制去杠杆

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现在是向下没动力

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因为该卖的都卖的差不多了嘛

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向上呢又没信心

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因为基本面依然迷雾重重

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至今不敢大举反攻

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怕把自己挂在树杈上了

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于是就形成了一种很别扭的局面

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就是低流动性

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低持仓

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高博弈

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有阴谋论的一些推测认为啊

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唉这是因为一些大机构因为手里的货还很重

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在缺乏对手盘的情况之下

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需要利用这种反复的停火传闻拉高价格

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以实现缓慢派发

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这个说法可以不全信

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但它至少解释了为什么最近很多利空消息出来之后

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盘面都只是晃一晃而已

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并没有真的崩

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利空看多了

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大家都开始麻木了

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这种动画的会让4月份的走势变得特别反复哈

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也让市场对地缘政治逐渐就形成某种免疫力

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即使伊朗在明天下午前没有给出实质性的让步

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比如象征性开放这霍尔木兹海峡市场

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大概率也还是不相信川普会真的发动全面的地面战

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其实我也不太信

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最多就批准一次小规模高强度高作秀的地面突击

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或者更有限的军事打击

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而不是把局势彻底的推向长期全面的战争

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毕竟刚过去的周末

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为了救一个飞行员哈

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都费了老鼻子劲儿了

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如果真的打地面战

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那成本

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那政治风险那就更难以承受了

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所以川普还是想用一场小而美的军事动作打给媒体看

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打给选民看

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顺便呃逼伊朗在4月底之前坐回谈判桌

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签下一份双方都能各自对内宣布自己赢了的协议哈

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可谓是一营各表

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也正因此呢

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市场越来越相信双方最后还是会想办法体面收场的

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所以从3月下跌以来

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美股虽然经历了这么一波剧烈的调整

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但始终没有出现真正意义上的投降式交易

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换句话说

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市场现在硬扛

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不是因为风险消失了

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而是因为大家普遍相信

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最坏的剧本最终大概率不会发生

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就是这么有信心

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不过呢即使嗯这个明天哈停火协议签了

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也不代表股指就能够一路高歌猛进

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直接就冲回年初的高点

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即便呃冲突结束

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那供应恢复也是需要时间的呀

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最近美股走势已经开始与油价逐渐脱钩了

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油价持续维持在100美元以上高位震荡

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而美股这边依然试图向上反攻

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自动脱钩

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说明股市已经开始把注意力从单纯的战争恐慌

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慢慢转移到新的定价逻辑上

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比如接下来的美股财报季

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通胀数据以及美股自身的盈利和估值问题

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再看霍尔木兹海峡的实际情况

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这个周末呢一共有21艘船只通过海峡

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这个是自3月初美伊战争爆发以来

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两日通行总量最高的一次

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虽然比前阵子好了一些

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但是依然远远的低于战前的正常水平哈

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战前大概每天能有135艘船通过

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所以现在更准确的说法不是海峡恢复正常

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而是他还没有彻底的瘫痪

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但是也绝对谈不上恢复元气

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伊朗一边在回应各方的压力

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一边呢继续强化对霍尔木兹的控制

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能否通行

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最终还是取决于伊朗愿不愿意

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这次美国是真的踢到铁板了

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如果这个局势再升级

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情况随时可能翻脸哈

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所以油市交易员到现在啊依然保持着高度警惕

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这完全可以理解

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至于周末那一份来自研究机构c training research的霍尔木兹实地调查报告

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我个人是带着保留态度看的哈

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报告声称他们的分析师亲自跑去霍尔木兹海峡那边做调查

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发现那边呢并没有完全的封闭

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实际通行量可能比明面上的数据要高得多

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伊朗这边收钱

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船东那边的交钱通过

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也就是说伊朗一边维持着表面上的封锁态度

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一边通过实际放行来获得收入

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同时增强他自己手里的谈判筹码

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如果嗯sring research这一份报告属实的话

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那确实意味着华尔街目前给原油加上的风险溢价可能偏高了

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但是这家机构本身的风格

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其实就不太像那种稳健客观的长期研究机构哈

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今年2月份的时候

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他也曾发布过一份轰动市场的报告

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描绘AI呢可能会重创全球经济的场景

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当时本来市场就已经被AI颠覆

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恐慌笼罩

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那份报告就等于又往火里浇了一桶油

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进一步加剧了软件板块和信贷板块的暴跌

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在我看来

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这一类机构更像是在制造情绪冲击哈

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而不是提供真正独立冷静的长期判断

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尤其是他就爱在这种流动性清淡的节假日窗口

204
00:09:58,019 --> 00:10:01,519
而突然放出一份特别抓眼球的报告

205
00:10:01,519 --> 00:10:05,440
本身就很容易成为大资金出货或者诱多的工具

206
00:10:05,440 --> 00:10:07,659
所以这份报告呢可以看啦

207
00:10:07,659 --> 00:10:09,610
但是也别太当回事了

208
00:10:09,610 --> 00:10:13,490
实践期美债收益率目前还在4.3%附近徘徊

209
00:10:13,490 --> 00:10:18,320
虽然联邦利率期货市场对今年年内降息的压注已经接近零

210
00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:20,039
但是对美联储来说

211
00:10:20,039 --> 00:10:22,318
核心矛盾哈依然是油价

212
00:10:22,318 --> 00:10:24,938
只要这场冲突不持续到下半年

213
00:10:24,938 --> 00:10:29,860
没有把油价中枢给长期定死在100美元以上的话

214
00:10:29,860 --> 00:10:33,200
那美联储未来依然保留降息空间

215
00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:36,250
市场现在不是完全放弃了降息

216
00:10:36,250 --> 00:10:37,769
而是在等一个确认

217
00:10:37,769 --> 00:10:41,940
就是这场战争到底会不会把通胀给重新点燃了

218
00:10:41,940 --> 00:10:43,019
如果不会的话

219
00:10:43,019 --> 00:10:44,840
那降息逻辑只是延后

220
00:10:44,840 --> 00:10:46,578
而不是彻底的死掉

221
00:10:46,578 --> 00:10:47,658
如果会的话啊

222
00:10:47,658 --> 00:10:52,139
那接下来市场真正要面对的就不是简单的地缘政治波动了哈

223
00:10:52,139 --> 00:10:55,580
而是美股最不想看到的智障剧本

224
00:10:55,580 --> 00:10:57,759
所以呢除了中东局势之外

225
00:10:57,759 --> 00:11:01,909
这个周五的CPI数据也是本周的焦点

226
00:11:01,909 --> 00:11:03,330
个股与板块方面

227
00:11:03,330 --> 00:11:05,370
联合健康股价盘后大涨

228
00:11:05,370 --> 00:11:10,240
美国医疗保险和医疗补助服务中心CMSS最终确定

229
00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:13,980
2027年联邦医疗保险优势计划

230
00:11:13,980 --> 00:11:17,700
私人保险有效费率上调2.48%额

231
00:11:17,700 --> 00:11:19,679
这个数字在历史上不算特别高

232
00:11:19,679 --> 00:11:26,629
但是对比1月底初步提案中可怜巴巴的那个0.09%强的多了

233
00:11:26,629 --> 00:11:28,389
当时那个数据一出来

234
00:11:28,389 --> 00:11:33,200
我去整个医疗保险行业几乎就全傻了

235
00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:34,600
直接让联合健康

236
00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:38,509
还有其他医疗保险股遭遇了黑色星期二哈

237
00:11:38,509 --> 00:11:39,789
股价重挫

238
00:11:39,789 --> 00:11:42,629
市场认为政府为了缩减开支

239
00:11:42,629 --> 00:11:45,690
牺牲了整个联邦医疗保险

240
00:11:45,690 --> 00:11:47,870
又是计划行业的利润

241
00:11:47,870 --> 00:11:49,409
在过去两个月里呢

242
00:11:49,409 --> 00:11:56,330
保险公司与行业协会一直在拼命的呃游说这个政客和监管层

243
00:11:56,330 --> 00:11:58,399
希望上调最终费率

244
00:11:58,399 --> 00:12:03,379
称最初的提案根本没有充分反映真实的医疗成本趋势

245
00:12:03,379 --> 00:12:05,860
尤其是在住院门诊药品

246
00:12:05,860 --> 00:12:09,580
还有老龄人口相关支出的持续抬升

247
00:12:09,580 --> 00:12:11,480
就是一个很荒谬的数字哈

248
00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:13,580
现在看他们的施压和游说呢

249
00:12:13,580 --> 00:12:15,019
显然是起作用了

250
00:12:15,019 --> 00:12:17,399
随着费率现在尘埃落定

251
00:12:17,399 --> 00:12:21,940
那这个板块最核心最不确定的行政风险已经消散

252
00:12:21,940 --> 00:12:24,960
市场原本定价的行业寒冬

253
00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:30,169
这个利润萎缩已经被重新修正为温和增长

254
00:12:30,169 --> 00:12:33,330
对于这些遭受重创的国家来说呢

255
00:12:33,330 --> 00:12:37,809
已经足够产生非常大的估值修复弹性哈

256
00:12:37,809 --> 00:12:40,230
再给加空头挤压嗯

257
00:12:40,230 --> 00:12:44,269
我相信股价这次不仅仅只是单纯反弹而已

258
00:12:44,269 --> 00:12:46,409
而是额触底回升了

259
00:12:46,409 --> 00:12:48,610
就是趋势要反转

260
00:12:48,610 --> 00:12:51,389
这个进入额上升趋势了

261
00:12:51,389 --> 00:12:54,960
如果市场嗯后面再发生动荡

262
00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:57,179
就伊朗战争再升级也好

263
00:12:57,179 --> 00:12:59,659
资金可能会选择在这里避险

264
00:12:59,659 --> 00:13:03,100
医疗保险股本来就是传统的避险板块哈

265
00:13:03,100 --> 00:13:05,500
就是这两年才被川普给玩坏了

266
00:13:05,500 --> 00:13:07,759
HUM盘后股价呢也暴涨

267
00:13:07,759 --> 00:13:09,159
相比联合健康

268
00:13:09,159 --> 00:13:14,600
HUM对这个联邦医疗保险又是计划业务的依赖度更高

269
00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:16,440
客户也是更多老年人

270
00:13:16,440 --> 00:13:20,960
所以他对而这个CMS费率变动的敏感度也更强

271
00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:22,179
正因如此

272
00:13:22,179 --> 00:13:24,720
他前几个月股价比涨得更惨

273
00:13:24,720 --> 00:13:26,339
预期也更为悲观

274
00:13:26,339 --> 00:13:28,918
市场一度担心它未来几年的利润率

275
00:13:28,918 --> 00:13:29,778
定价能力

276
00:13:29,778 --> 00:13:32,720
甚至会员质量都会被持续的侵蚀

277
00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:36,029
这一次呢最终费率定在2.48%

278
00:13:36,029 --> 00:13:41,049
大幅的缓解了市场对HOM盈利模型继续恶化的恐慌

279
00:13:41,049 --> 00:13:45,149
所以他的这个股价弹性可能比那个联合健康还要更高

280
00:13:45,149 --> 00:13:47,649
特斯拉股价今天日内高开低走

281
00:13:47,649 --> 00:13:48,730
抛售加剧

282
00:13:48,730 --> 00:13:50,629
承接力明显不足呀

283
00:13:50,629 --> 00:13:52,529
这情绪还是很悲观

284
00:13:52,529 --> 00:13:56,049
如果不能够收复363的话呃

285
00:13:56,049 --> 00:13:59,860
或者反抽到附近再次被卖盘给打下来

286
00:13:59,860 --> 00:14:03,480
那股价可能会去往300寻找支撑

287
00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:07,009
因为这个位置不仅有更强的心理支撑意义

288
00:14:07,009 --> 00:14:11,750
也更接近前期资金愿意重新博弈的位置呃

289
00:14:11,750 --> 00:14:13,970
行今天我们就简单的说到这里

290
00:14:13,970 --> 00:14:16,450
看看这个宜兰到底会给出什么回复

291
00:14:16,450 --> 00:14:17,659
明天见拜拜

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