5大科技，机会来了，最新买入-加仓价格点位！另外准备减仓1支股

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大家好

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我是老李

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咱们这周美股当中可谓是大势云集

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好戏连台

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本周三呢可以说是美股当中的超级碗啊

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或者说是美股中的春晚啊

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咱们来掰扯掰扯掰扯啊

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本周三美联储呢将会呃公布最新的会议决议

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那么这一次会议呢也是老鲍啊

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他在这个任职期间的最后一次会议了

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然后本周三呢还有四家科技巨头

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分别是呃这个微软呃

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meta谷歌

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还有亚马逊啊

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都会呃公布财报业绩

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周三之后呢

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在周四啊

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还有一家这个科技巨头

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苹果呢会公布财报业绩

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这五家科技巨头同时发布财报啊

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可以说是风险与机遇并存

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咱们之前呢有些朋友手里一把的子弹啊

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踏空了

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或者一说一直没上车

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可能啊这一波这个财报啊

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这机会就来了

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五家科技巨头发财报

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发出财报之后

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他不可能都是上涨啊

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总有那么一两个

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总有那么几个啊

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这个会是暴雷的

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但是呢这几家科技巨头我之前跟大家分析过

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基本面呢都是不错啊

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这个护城河也扎实

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你长期来看呢啊如果说啊短期之内股价暴雷

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长期来看基本上股价都还能啊涨回来

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所以说呢这就给咱们啊可能会提供这些美女回头

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股价打折啊

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让咱们朋友们呢去啊上车啊

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买入科技巨头的这种机会

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今天这期视频呢我会对这五家科技巨头的财报呢做一波提前的展望

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以及我会呃给出最新更新的这五家科技巨头啊

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开仓以及加仓的这个价格点位

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今天美股波澜不惊

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整体比较的平静

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收盘时道指微红

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纳指和标普500微绿

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我的账户呢小涨了280美金

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当前的账户总资产来到了29万4000多

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本期视频由复读木木独家赞助播出

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我一直使用的这款券商就是木木

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功能齐全

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非常的好用

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还没有开通美股账户的朋友看完了本期视频之后

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到视频下方找到我的专属邀请链接

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通过我的邀请链接

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开户入金可以领取到非常超值的粉丝专属福利

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希望大家千万不要错过

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最近我账户当中按摩店AMD这支股票啊

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涨得非常的凶猛啊

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这一不小心啊

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按摩店已经蹿到了我账户里的第一大仓位

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目前我在AAMD这支股票上已经盈利了2万4000多美金啊

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盈利的百分比呢是达到了160%多

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接下来呢我可能会打算对我AMD的股票啊进行适当的减仓

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那么呃这个减仓的主要原因啊

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就是四个字

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仓位管理

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我打算呢给他适当的做一做减肥

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顺便呢呃这样子减仓之后

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给咱们账户里啊啊带来更多的这个现金跟子弹啊

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虽然说我现在账户里现金的这个仓位啊也不算小

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我现在一共有5万7000多的陷进啊

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但是呢我还是想慢慢的啊

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达到我的这样一个啊这个对现金仓位的一个标准

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就是啊账户里面是持有30%的这样一个现现金的水平

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减仓AAMD的另外一个原因呢

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就是从目前的估值上来看啊

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AAMD它现在的估值啊已经有一些偏高了啊

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他现在的车0P是130多

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forward pe呢前瞻市盈率是51.81

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AAMD已经不是以前的那个小小按摩店了

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现在呢已经是壮实起来了

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已经有点开始肥胖了

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那么咱们呢需呃需要啊对他啊做一做

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给它做一做减肥

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在如果接下来啊AAMD股价啊继续往上涨的话

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在350以上啊

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我就会进行减仓

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其实在上周啊

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AAMD1度是啊冲到过350之上

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但是呢那那会儿我没有抓到机会啊

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也就那么一瞬间啊到了350之上

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然后就马上又下来了

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如果接下来啊短期之内AAMD的股价还能到350以上的话

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我会对我的这个AMD啊去进行减仓啊

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在这呢我跟大家做这样一个提前的啊通知跟预告

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咱们呢首先来看看华尔街对这周这五家科技巨头财报的一个整体啊

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态度跟看法

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华尔街在这场属于大型科技公司的超级碗到来之际啊

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整体上持乐观态度

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但筛选的标准非常严格

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投资者希望看到强劲的业绩数据

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但更重要的是

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他们想要呃数证据证明

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大规模的AI和云计算资本支出正在转化为可持续的收入和利润啊

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如果任何公司在这一叙事上失手

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或在缺乏明确回报的情况下啊

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提高支出

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投资者呢已准备好对其进行惩罚

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市场情绪积极但脆弱

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近期历史表明

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即便营收和呃EPS超出预期

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如果业绩指引云业务增长或AI相关表述令人失望的话

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股价呢也可能会出现大幅的抛售

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这五家科技巨头当中

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咱们呢先来说说微软啊

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微软呢是在啊

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今年呐整体表现相对于其他的这科技巨头来说是表现比较弱势的

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年初至今呢微软的回报率是百分之呃负的啊

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百分之啊

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12.15也是因为股价一直在下跌啊

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微软当前的估值呢已经来到了七大科技巨头当中啊

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相对来说比较低的一个位置啊

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这七大科技巨头当中目前整体估值水平最低的啊

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应该是meta

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其次啊

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其次应该就是微软

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微软目前的trailing pe是26.57

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forward pe e是22.12啊

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这个估值水平呢对于一家科技巨头来说啊

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我觉得呃不算高

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微软这支股票在过去3年半的时间里啊

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也就是一共14个季度

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14次财报

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这14次财报当中呢有123456789次啊

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有九次发出财报之后股价是下跌的

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那么呢有五次啊发出财报之后

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股价呢是上涨的

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本周三啊发出财报之后呢

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目前市场对微软这个啊财报后股价的预期波动率啊

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是正负6.42%

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说实话呢这个波动率啊也不算不算小啊

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啊这个财报分析的功能呢在木木上面就可以直接实现啊

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呃具体到随便一只股票

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然后呢这个位置咱们点一下财务

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再点一下这个财报分析就可以看到啊

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这个财报相关的这些啊具体的信息啊

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这个功能呢非常的实用

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大家呢呃也可以去木木上面试一试

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华尔街的投行和机构对微软的这次财报呢主要是聚焦于error的增长

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AI工作负载有COPPILOT

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由AI和OpenAI驱动的这个需求

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以及在资本支出大幅提升之后

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这些因素将如何转化为利润率

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微软在近期的几次财报业绩虽然说超出了预期

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但是呢却因为市场担忧云业务增长放缓

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以及AI客户集中于少数大客户而遭到这个抛售啊

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如今市场的门槛是不仅要超预期

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还要给出令人安心的云啊

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这个AI发展的轨迹以及有纪律的资本支出

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微软当前的价格呢是424

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在本周三发出财报之后啊

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我觉得这个股价只要稍微回头啊

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稍微再打打折的话啊

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微软这支股票我觉得就可以去啊果断的去上车买入

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那么这支股票呢我的成本价啊啊是411对吧

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是411

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开仓买入的这个价格呢就是我的这个成本价啊

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如果说这次财报之后啊

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微软又给咱再次打折啊

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回到了我的成本价411以下

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那么有想上车的朋友就可以果断啊去开仓了

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然后下面一个位置呢是这个390啊

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390的这个支撑位是啊

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如果想要进行长期布局的话

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是咱们进一步去啊加仓扩大仓位的一个价格点位

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接下来呢咱们来说谷歌

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谷歌这支股票在前一阵子啊给了大家一个非常啊不错的这个机会

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那当时呢在啊接近底部的时候

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我对我的这个谷歌股票是进行过一次加仓啊

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最近呢这波反弹啊

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谷歌的反弹也是非常的凶猛

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在上周呢啊这不是上周啊

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就是今天啊股价是在盘中又创出了新高啊

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达到了350这样一个价格

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从估值上来看呢

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谷歌目前它的trailing pe e是31.67

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forward pe e远期市盈率呢是29.94啊

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现在这个估值怎么说呢

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啊你说高吧

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他也不算是太高

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就是我对这些科技巨头有一个标准

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大家知道远期市盈率呢是30这样一个标准

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如果说在30以下呢

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这个估值还算是OK

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但是你说低吧

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它相比于呀啊过呃

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过往就是以往这个谷歌以往的远期市盈率来比较的话

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它像现在的这个远期市盈率相对来说横向比较还是比较的高的

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大家记不记得在去年的这个时候

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也就去年45月份的时候

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我跟大家看谷歌它的估值的时候

205
00:09:57,340 --> 00:10:01,230
当时他的for的PE就是前瞻市盈率啊

206
00:10:01,230 --> 00:10:03,289
我记得啊是不到20

207
00:10:03,289 --> 00:10:04,450
是在20以下

208
00:10:04,450 --> 00:10:08,239
那么当时呢我跟大家说这个估值非常的香啊

209
00:10:08,239 --> 00:10:09,379
也是在那个时候啊

210
00:10:09,379 --> 00:10:13,049
我是大力的跟大家去呃推荐谷歌啊

211
00:10:13,049 --> 00:10:14,549
推荐大家去买入谷歌

212
00:10:14,549 --> 00:10:20,359
那后来呢谷歌这支股票确实给咱们带来了非常不错的啊这个收益啊

213
00:10:20,359 --> 00:10:25,198
现在这个估值虽然说没有去年这个时候它的估值那么的香了

214
00:10:25,198 --> 00:10:28,450
但是呢啊估值整体来说呢还算是OK

215
00:10:28,450 --> 00:10:34,360
只能说是啊O谷歌在过去的14次财报当中发出财报之后呢

216
00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:37,139
有八次啊是下跌的啊

217
00:10:37,139 --> 00:10:39,589
有六次啊

218
00:10:39,589 --> 00:10:42,220
这个发出财报之后股价是上涨的

219
00:10:42,220 --> 00:10:43,799
本次财报之后呢

220
00:10:43,799 --> 00:10:50,889
市场预期这个谷歌的这个股价的波动率呢目前是正负5.19%

221
00:10:50,889 --> 00:10:56,448
目前华尔街对谷歌这次财报的整体呃看法呢是啊

222
00:10:56,448 --> 00:11:01,690
谷歌的业绩被视为AI驱动资本开支风险的一个模板

223
00:11:01,690 --> 00:11:07,078
此前华尔街曾啊因高额AI和数据中心支出而感到不满

224
00:11:07,078 --> 00:11:11,339
因此呢在本周市场将高度关注搜索YOUTUBE

225
00:11:11,339 --> 00:11:15,379
还有云业务是否展现出足够的变现能力

226
00:11:15,379 --> 00:11:18,500
以证明进一步投资AI是合理的

227
00:11:18,500 --> 00:11:23,740
谷歌这支股票我最新更新的买入以及加仓的价格点位呢

228
00:11:23,740 --> 00:11:26,379
分别是在330跟310啊

229
00:11:26,379 --> 00:11:28,320
本周三发出财报之后啊

230
00:11:28,320 --> 00:11:31,840
谷歌如果说美女回头股价的啊

231
00:11:31,840 --> 00:11:33,679
回到了330以下

232
00:11:33,679 --> 00:11:38,299
我觉得咱们想上车的朋友呢就可以考虑去啊开仓

233
00:11:38,299 --> 00:11:44,620
然后下方310的这个支撑位呢是咱们啊进一步去啊啊加仓

234
00:11:44,620 --> 00:11:47,179
扩大仓位的一个价格点位

235
00:11:47,179 --> 00:11:49,289
接下来咱们来说meta

236
00:11:49,289 --> 00:11:50,990
正如咱们刚才所说的

237
00:11:50,990 --> 00:11:53,529
meta目前它的整体估值水平啊

238
00:11:53,529 --> 00:11:55,850
在这七大科技巨头当中啊

239
00:11:55,850 --> 00:11:59,440
可以说是啊啊相对来说是最低的

240
00:11:59,440 --> 00:12:02,500
他当前的trio0PE是28.74

241
00:12:02,500 --> 00:12:05,078
forward p e呢是22.62

242
00:12:05,078 --> 00:12:07,458
在过去的14次财报当中

243
00:12:07,458 --> 00:12:09,479
meta呢是只有五次啊

244
00:12:09,479 --> 00:12:13,399
发出财报之后股价是下跌的九次啊

245
00:12:13,399 --> 00:12:16,409
这个发出财报之后股价都是上涨的

246
00:12:16,409 --> 00:12:17,690
本次财报之后呢

247
00:12:17,690 --> 00:12:23,080
市场预期股价的这个波动率呢是正负7.2%啊

248
00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:26,919
这个meta的预期波动率呢也是这几家科技巨头当中啊

249
00:12:26,919 --> 00:12:28,669
可以说是最高的

250
00:12:28,669 --> 00:12:31,889
然后华尔街呢对meta也是普遍看好

251
00:12:31,889 --> 00:12:36,389
meta呢被视为一项由AI驱动的广告投资标的啊

252
00:12:36,389 --> 00:12:40,490
此前几个季度其营收和每股收益均大幅超预期

253
00:12:40,490 --> 00:12:43,269
同时呢AI蓄势也非常乐观

254
00:12:43,269 --> 00:12:47,990
meta这支股票我最新给到的买入以及加仓的点位呢

255
00:12:47,990 --> 00:12:51,710
分别是在653跟625啊

256
00:12:51,710 --> 00:12:53,600
这次财报出来之后

257
00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:56,559
meta的股价如果回到653附近

258
00:12:56,559 --> 00:12:58,509
就可以考虑去开仓

259
00:12:58,509 --> 00:13:04,059
然后625呢是啊进一步啊加仓的一个位置

260
00:13:04,059 --> 00:13:06,179
接下来呢咱们来说亚马逊

261
00:13:06,179 --> 00:13:09,059
亚马逊在最近的这波反弹当中啊

262
00:13:09,059 --> 00:13:11,500
股价的涨势啊是非常的凶猛

263
00:13:11,500 --> 00:13:15,278
在上周呢啊股价是又创了新高

264
00:13:15,278 --> 00:13:16,899
这波强势上涨之后

265
00:13:16,899 --> 00:13:20,600
把亚马逊的估值啊也是拉高了不少啊

266
00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:23,539
这七大科技巨头除了特斯拉之外啊

267
00:13:23,539 --> 00:13:26,620
目前亚马逊的整体估值水平啊

268
00:13:26,620 --> 00:13:29,669
应该是啊就除了特斯拉之外

269
00:13:29,669 --> 00:13:31,809
其余的六家科技巨头里面啊

270
00:13:31,809 --> 00:13:34,519
呃亚马逊应该是最高的了

271
00:13:34,519 --> 00:13:37,899
他当前的chilling pe e是36.82啊

272
00:13:37,899 --> 00:13:40,500
forward的PE呢是12.47

273
00:13:40,500 --> 00:13:45,029
这个前瞻市盈率32.47呢是已经超过了啊

274
00:13:45,029 --> 00:13:48,809
我对科技巨头的这个30的这样一个标准

275
00:13:48,809 --> 00:13:51,269
所以如果想要上车开仓买入的话

276
00:13:51,269 --> 00:13:52,690
在当前这个高位啊

277
00:13:52,690 --> 00:13:55,960
我就不建议大家去追着去买进的

278
00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:58,039
就是有这种formal的情绪啊

279
00:13:58,039 --> 00:14:00,509
追高买入亚马逊这支股票呢

280
00:14:00,509 --> 00:14:01,690
像刚才我所说的

281
00:14:06,230 --> 00:14:11,669
所以呢我们啊这次财报之后呢啊看看股价能不能啊

282
00:14:11,669 --> 00:14:13,269
这个有所回调

283
00:14:13,269 --> 00:14:15,599
就是再打一打折扣

284
00:14:15,599 --> 00:14:19,818
如果啊刚才我跟大家看它的前瞻市盈率是32点多

285
00:14:19,818 --> 00:14:21,019
想要达到啊

286
00:14:21,019 --> 00:14:26,080
如果想要这个前瞻市盈率达到老李的这个标准30以下的话

287
00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:31,259
那么需要呢亚马逊的股价回到这条线就是245以下

288
00:14:31,259 --> 00:14:32,899
也就是说这次财报之后

289
00:14:32,899 --> 00:14:33,980
咱们看看情况

290
00:14:33,980 --> 00:14:40,159
如果亚马逊啊股价回到245以下才可以考虑去啊开仓买入

291
00:14:40,159 --> 00:14:42,940
然后下方的这个位置233啊

292
00:14:42,940 --> 00:14:46,460
233这个价格附近呢啊可以考虑去啊

293
00:14:46,460 --> 00:14:48,500
再进一步的去加仓

294
00:14:48,500 --> 00:14:50,960
在过去的14次财报当中

295
00:14:50,960 --> 00:14:53,820
亚马逊有八次发财报之后呢

296
00:14:53,820 --> 00:14:55,200
股价是下跌的

297
00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:57,568
有六次是上涨的

298
00:14:57,568 --> 00:14:59,109
本次财报发出之后

299
00:14:59,109 --> 00:15:05,549
目前市场对亚马逊股价的预期波动率呢是正负6.87%

300
00:15:05,549 --> 00:15:06,889
对于亚马逊而言

301
00:15:06,889 --> 00:15:11,279
华尔街当前讨论的焦点集中在AWS的AI需求

302
00:15:11,279 --> 00:15:13,980
AWS整体增长重新加速

303
00:15:13,980 --> 00:15:17,379
以及零售和广告业务的经营杠杆

304
00:15:17,379 --> 00:15:22,820
摩根大通和美国银行等大型银行呢最近将亚马逊视为标普百指数

305
00:15:22,820 --> 00:15:24,740
盈利增长的关键驱动力

306
00:15:24,740 --> 00:15:29,460
但他们对股价近期的反应呢持谨慎态度啊

307
00:15:29,460 --> 00:15:31,750
强调前瞻性指引的重要性

308
00:15:31,750 --> 00:15:34,309
甚至高于财报数据本身

309
00:15:34,309 --> 00:15:36,470
下面呢咱们再来说说苹果

310
00:15:36,470 --> 00:15:37,889
苹果和微软一样

311
00:15:37,889 --> 00:15:42,340
今年年初至今股价的回报率呢啊都是是负的

312
00:15:42,340 --> 00:15:43,580
在上一期视频里呢

313
00:15:43,580 --> 00:15:46,220
我详细讲了苹果这支股票

314
00:15:46,220 --> 00:15:50,000
所以说本期视频呢咱们就啊这个长话短说

315
00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:52,230
再简单的跟大家来过一下

316
00:15:52,230 --> 00:15:53,289
和亚马逊一样

317
00:15:53,289 --> 00:15:57,440
苹果目前面临的一个问题呢也是估值偏高

318
00:15:57,440 --> 00:16:00,080
他现在的trailing pe e是34.31

319
00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:02,809
forward pe e呢是31.75啊

320
00:16:02,809 --> 00:16:08,190
这个前瞻市盈率呢也是要高于我这个呃对科技巨头啊

321
00:16:08,190 --> 00:16:10,339
30的这样一个标准的

322
00:16:10,339 --> 00:16:13,918
华尔街对苹果的立场相比其他公司更为谨慎

323
00:16:13,918 --> 00:16:17,759
各大银行强调硬件需求疲软或停滞

324
00:16:17,759 --> 00:16:19,269
中国市场风险

325
00:16:19,269 --> 00:16:24,809
以及需要一个更清晰的AI和服务业务叙事来重新加速增长

326
00:16:24,809 --> 00:16:30,250
市场预期认为苹果本周更不会被视为一个AI资本支出的蓄势

327
00:16:30,250 --> 00:16:37,129
而会更多被看作是一个业绩指引和资本回报的这样一个叙事

328
00:16:37,129 --> 00:16:38,450
主要的关注点呢

329
00:16:38,450 --> 00:16:45,078
在股票回购利润率以及对任何AI相关产品周期的早期观察

330
00:16:45,078 --> 00:16:51,200
苹果这支股票买入以及加仓的价格点位建议呢还是跟之前啊保持一致

331
00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:55,879
两个支撑位分别是在245跟225

332
00:16:55,879 --> 00:16:57,659
想要上车的朋友呢啊

333
00:16:57,659 --> 00:16:59,850
这两个位置可以作为参考

334
00:16:59,850 --> 00:17:01,529
那妥了一顿分析之后

335
00:17:01,529 --> 00:17:06,230
咱们就坐等本周三美股的超级晚视频

336
00:17:06,230 --> 00:17:07,799
既然都看到这儿了

337
00:17:07,799 --> 00:17:09,359
大家呢高抬贵手

338
00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:11,500
给老李来波三连点赞

339
00:17:11,500 --> 00:17:12,859
评论加转发

340
00:17:12,859 --> 00:17:14,119
还没有订阅的朋友呢

341
00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:16,160
抓紧时间点上一首订阅

342
00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:20,470
这样子老李以后再发新视频或者是开启直播的时候

343
00:17:20,470 --> 00:17:22,750
你都会第一时间收到通知

344
00:17:22,750 --> 00:17:24,109
看完本期视频之后

345
00:17:24,109 --> 00:17:26,230
别忘了到视频下方去开户

346
00:17:26,230 --> 00:17:28,750
木木领取超值好礼

347
00:17:28,750 --> 00:17:31,730
美国用户现在通过老李的专属邀请链接

348
00:17:31,730 --> 00:17:33,410
开户入金2000美金

349
00:17:33,410 --> 00:17:37,549
即可获得价值100美金的免费英伟达股票

350
00:17:37,549 --> 00:17:38,450
如今越多

351
00:17:38,450 --> 00:17:39,210
送的越多

352
00:17:39,210 --> 00:17:42,869
最高可获得1000美金的免费英伟达股票

353
00:17:42,869 --> 00:17:44,670
此外还有非常重要的一点

354
00:17:44,670 --> 00:17:51,130
就是你在木木里面的闲置资金可以享受到8.1%的高利息

355
00:17:51,130 --> 00:17:56,309
加拿大粉丝开户最高可享受4600加元的现金好礼

356
00:17:56,309 --> 00:18:00,449
闲置资金享受高达6%的现金年化收益

357
00:18:00,449 --> 00:18:02,128
除了美国和加拿大之外

358
00:18:02,128 --> 00:18:07,579
其他各个国家和地区开户木也有非常丰厚的粉丝专属福利

359
00:18:07,579 --> 00:18:10,349
具体呢我都放在视频的下方了

360
00:18:10,349 --> 00:18:11,490
心动不如行动

361
00:18:11,490 --> 00:18:13,390
朋友们抓紧行动起来

362
00:18:13,390 --> 00:18:14,890
感谢大家的收看

363
00:18:14,890 --> 00:18:17,180
让我们下期再见

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