【Andrei Jikh】为什么美国经济至今尚未崩溃？

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所以感谢沃伦

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美国经济和投资市场似乎正站在去杠杆的边缘

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如果你有401k账户

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这可能非常重要

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现在正在发生一些事情

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这涉及可能管理你退休资金的公司

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这被称为私人信贷市场

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简而言之，私人信贷就是向私营企业提供的私人贷款

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私营房地产和基础设施

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你看

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当大多数人需要贷款时

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他们会去银行

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银行受到监管

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有规定限制它们可承担的风险

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但过去二十年左右

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经济学家所谓的银行系统的影子版本逐渐形成

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它们被称为私人信贷市场

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像黑石集团这样的公司

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阿波罗和蓝鹰开始向企业放贷

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他们资金从哪里来

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他们来自养老基金

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保险公司

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以及拥有401k账户的普通退休投资者

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有了这笔钱

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他们以更高利率放贷

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几乎没有任何监管和透明度

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同时涉及金融领域

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私人信贷相关企业

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也出现大幅亏损

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贝莱德和杰弗里

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遭遇最大跌幅

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贝莱德股价下跌后

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私人信贷基金因赎回激增导致限额赎回

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投资者应多担心信贷市场

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私人信贷市场十年间从无到三万亿美元

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在低利率时代回报诱人

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大量资金涌入这些基金

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包括养老金体系和退休投资组合中的基金

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摩根大通CEO

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他说

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引述 我可能不该说这个

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但当你看到一只蟑螂

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可能还有更多

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存在大问题

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因为这些不是银行账户

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可以随时取款

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这些贷款被长期锁定

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因此这些贷款被长期锁定在不可赎回的协议中

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例如

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当投资者感到不安并想要取出资金时

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就像他们现在正在尝试的那样

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基金不能立即抛售所有资产以快速兑付

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例如

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黑石集团

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全球最大另类资产管理公司

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其820亿美元信贷基金遭遇创纪录赎回

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赎回请求激增，黑石不得不动用自己的资金

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甚至动用员工个人资金填补缺口

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有一家名为蓝鹰的公司

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其零售基金完全暂停赎回

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贝莱德也开始限制赎回

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这实际上意味着投资者在要求取回资金

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但他们被告知

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不能全部立即兑付

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这些公司的股价发生了什么变化

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蓝鹰

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KKR

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黑石集团

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Aries

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阿波罗集团

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卡尔利斯

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这些是地球上最大的金融机构

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而它们的股价正在崩盘

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这一切只是系统的一个裂痕

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还有油价问题

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由于伊朗战争，油价一路飙升

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这已扰乱全球供应链

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这不仅仅是石油的动荡

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还有天然气

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还有化肥

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还有金属

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还有石化产品

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名单还在继续，历史上

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油价飙升几乎总预示重大衰退

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还有3.8万亿美元的支出问题

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并且预计若无改变且无改变

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未来十年国债将达5.8万亿美元

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就业市场也开始显著放缓

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二月失业9.2万人

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过去报告大幅下调

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美国二月失业9.2万人

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部分经济学家曾预测增加6万岗位

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失业率小幅升至4.4%

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或许一切正常

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今日市场可能上涨

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或许下跌

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无人知晓未来走向

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但迄今为止的

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S经济在许多地方开始出现裂痕

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今天我想向你展示这些地方中的几个

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并解释这对你的投资可能意味着什么

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我将与你分享一个关于美国政府可能采取的非常有趣的理论

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来修复所有问题

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说到这里

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我们开始吧

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你好

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我叫安德烈·吉霍普

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你状态很好

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来获取财经知识，留步看经济分析

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或市场崩盘

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相反，我要展示一些非常有趣的证据

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这些迹象显示我们正走向错误方向

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现在让我从第一项证据开始

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这是理解本视频所有内容的基础

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系统如此敏感的原因在于我们所处的债务驱动体系

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运行在杠杆概念之上

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这意味着大多数人借债维持现有生活

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这一点至关重要，因为只需一个多米诺骨牌就能引发连锁反应

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最好的例子就是2008年

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我亲身经历过

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当时感觉所有人都要失去家园，许多人确实如此

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真正让我震惊的是

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我了解到全美所有房贷中

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只有不到5%出现违约

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这怎么可能

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但感觉全国都在违约

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但实际上并非如此

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只是住房市场一个小众角落出现问题

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主要涉及次级贷款

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而这些贷款仅占所有房贷的13%

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其中约2.5%出现违约

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总计4.5%的违约引发了系统崩溃

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这足以引发全面崩溃

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整个全球金融体系因此瓦解

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这就是多米诺效应

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现在

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我不是将今日与2008年次贷危机作比较

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我只是举例说明去杠杆需要多小的触发点

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一个高度互联且高度杠杆化的经济体系

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当前担忧并非次级贷款

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当前担忧是油价对市场的影响

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以及人工智能和科技对就业的影响

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我要明确说明

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我们还未到机器人全面取代人类工作的阶段

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但大多数人并不理解

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现在大多数人并不理解

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这难道不需要每个人的工作吗

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只需要有足够的工作即可

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也就是说

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据卢克·罗曼所说失业率在6%到8%之间

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我们现在还没达到这个水平

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但如果这种情况发生且足够多的工作被取代

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这可能引发去杠杆的连锁反应

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这里有个例子

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假设你花五万美元买了一栋五十万美元的房子

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并支付了五万美元首付

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借了剩下的四十五万美元

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这意味着你的杠杆率是十比一

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但如果房子价值下跌10%

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就会完全抹去你的全部资产

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这就是杠杆的作用当它有效时会放大效果

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但它也会反向产生同样影响

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现在放大视角应用到整个经济

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这就是整体情况

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房主处于高杠杆状态

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没错

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他们有房贷大多数美国人都是这样

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但不仅仅是房主

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发放房贷的银行同样处于高杠杆

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因为银行本身也是借钱来放贷

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持有这些贷款的私人信贷基金同样高杠杆

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投资该基金的保险公司也处于高杠杆

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而政府层面更是如此

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整个体系最顶层的杠杆最大

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美国债务体系的每一层都建立在下层借贷之上

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就像多米诺骨牌塔

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可能只需要少数几个行业和岗位被取代

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就能触发连锁反应

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好的

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但我在说谁呢

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谁会被取代呢

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那将是白领岗位

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这里有一张在网上流传的有趣图表

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显示哪些工作容易被AI取代

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办公室和行政岗位

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商业与金融

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计算机、数学和教育领域

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我认为这张图表可能是AI生成的

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所以并非完全准确

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但看起来我们已经开始看到这种情况

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甚至在真实经济数据中也是如此

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金融和保险行业岗位大幅下降

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岗位

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信息行业

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专业及商务服务领域

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这一切最终导致更严格的放贷政策

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资产价格下跌

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市场波动和不确定性

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因为我们根本不知道会发生什么

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现在

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这里有证据

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第二件事似乎没有朝着正确方向发展

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但在继续之前先做个简短的补充

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因为这非常契合我们正在讨论的内容

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当杠杆从系统中退出时

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最明智的做法通常是不采取极端措施

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而是减少不必要的敞口

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现在大多数人已经覆盖了基础

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但存在一个重大缺口

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大多数人并未考虑

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通过数据经纪商出售的个人信息

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这包括你的姓名

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家庭住址

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电话号码甚至亲属信息

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这就是Delete Me能帮助解决的问题

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由于我在YouTube上

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我的信息被大量出售

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这也是我自四月以来一直成为会员的原因

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2024年四月

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他们已查看数千个列表

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发现超过50家经纪商在出售我的信息

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幸运的是Delete Me已自动移除数十家

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它在后台持续运行

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所以我无需操作

225
00:09:51,559 --> 00:09:53,759
如果你想在2026年更聪明更安全

226
00:09:53,759 --> 00:09:55,379
设置只需约五分钟

227
00:09:55,379 --> 00:09:56,519
我会在下方留链接

228
00:09:56,519 --> 00:09:57,919
或访问join.eliteme.com

229
00:09:57,919 --> 00:09:58,419
转发

230
00:09:58,419 --> 00:10:01,379
Slash Andre20获取新订阅者20%折扣

231
00:10:01,379 --> 00:10:01,899
适用于所有用户

232
00:10:01,899 --> 00:10:02,889
S消费者计划

233
00:10:02,889 --> 00:10:03,409
谢谢

234
00:10:03,409 --> 00:10:04,850
Delete Me赞助了本环节

235
00:10:04,850 --> 00:10:06,309
现在让我们继续

236
00:10:06,309 --> 00:10:08,370
纵观现代历史

237
00:10:08,370 --> 00:10:13,200
有一个指标几乎出现在每次重大衰退前

238
00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:16,779
该指标显示油价上涨

239
00:10:16,779 --> 00:10:18,799
这里有一张参考图表

240
00:10:18,799 --> 00:10:20,399
绿色线条追踪

241
00:10:20,399 --> 00:10:21,320
油价走势

242
00:10:21,320 --> 00:10:23,159
每次价格上升时都会出现

243
00:10:23,159 --> 00:10:24,100
价格攀升

244
00:10:24,100 --> 00:10:26,149
突破长期趋势线

245
00:10:26,149 --> 00:10:27,730
然后它之前发生过

246
00:10:29,850 --> 00:10:31,649
这些都是所有灰色竖条

247
00:10:31,649 --> 00:10:34,049
现在这张图表显示零到四美元

248
00:10:34,049 --> 00:10:38,419
但如今这一阈值可能更接近

249
00:10:38,419 --> 00:10:41,259
可能七十到七十五美元

250
00:10:41,460 --> 00:10:43,080
肯定超过一百美元

251
00:10:43,080 --> 00:10:44,460
情况越来越糟

252
00:10:44,460 --> 00:10:44,860
没错

253
00:10:44,860 --> 00:10:48,779
美国的最佳区间在七十到七十五美元之间

254
00:10:48,779 --> 00:10:51,370
如果迅速突破这个区间

255
00:10:51,370 --> 00:10:53,190
那就是坏消息

256
00:10:53,190 --> 00:10:53,649
所以

257
00:10:53,649 --> 00:10:54,539
例如

258
00:10:54,539 --> 00:10:57,399
1973年石油禁运价格

259
00:10:57,399 --> 00:11:01,889
四倍上涨后引发1979年伊朗革命

260
00:11:01,889 --> 00:11:07,740
油价翻倍引发1990年海湾战争

261
00:11:07,740 --> 00:11:10,659
油价飙升引发2000年石油危机

262
00:11:10,659 --> 00:11:11,600
油价翻倍引发衰退

263
00:11:11,600 --> 00:11:16,139
2007年油价从六十涨至一百四十七美元/桶

264
00:11:16,139 --> 00:11:20,779
每次随后都引发大萧条以来最严重衰退

265
00:11:20,779 --> 00:11:24,139
得益于伊朗战争和霍尔木兹海峡封锁

266
00:11:24,139 --> 00:11:27,379
全球20%石油经此运输

267
00:11:27,379 --> 00:11:30,539
如今油价再次上涨

268
00:11:30,539 --> 00:11:34,059
特朗普称可动用战略石油储备

269
00:11:34,059 --> 00:11:35,059
战略石油储备

270
00:11:35,059 --> 00:11:38,659
通常用于此类缓冲

271
00:11:39,059 --> 00:11:40,759
但已用尽储备

272
00:11:40,759 --> 00:11:41,580
这意味着美国

273
00:11:41,580 --> 00:11:41,759
经济

274
00:11:41,759 --> 00:11:46,379
现在对油价更敏感

275
00:11:46,379 --> 00:11:47,480
如果你想知道

276
00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:48,360
等等

277
00:11:48,360 --> 00:11:53,360
为什么石油是衰退指标

278
00:11:53,360 --> 00:11:58,908
因其是经济学家所说的投入成本

279
00:11:58,908 --> 00:12:00,089
基本上所有领域

280
00:12:00,089 --> 00:12:01,688
食品制造

281
00:12:01,688 --> 00:12:02,349
运输

282
00:12:02,349 --> 00:12:03,589
交通

283
00:12:03,589 --> 00:12:05,428
当油价上涨时

284
00:12:05,428 --> 00:12:08,688
生产和运输成本也随之上升

285
00:12:08,688 --> 00:12:10,328
当这种情况发生时

286
00:12:10,328 --> 00:12:12,460
企业面临压力

287
00:12:12,460 --> 00:12:13,720
他们该怎么办

288
00:12:13,720 --> 00:12:15,109
必须削减成本

289
00:12:15,109 --> 00:12:16,708
裁员没错

290
00:12:16,708 --> 00:12:19,769
但这次特别危险的原因

291
00:12:19,769 --> 00:12:21,369
与其他时期相比

292
00:12:21,369 --> 00:12:22,690
是这张图表

293
00:12:26,539 --> 00:12:30,320
美联储仍有回旋余地

294
00:12:30,320 --> 00:12:32,909
他们可以降息应对

295
00:12:32,909 --> 00:12:35,990
但如今美联储处境艰难

296
00:12:35,990 --> 00:12:37,450
这意味着什么

297
00:12:37,450 --> 00:12:40,669
蓝色线条是美联储资产负债表

298
00:12:40,669 --> 00:12:42,549
每上涨一次

299
00:12:42,549 --> 00:12:46,399
这是美联储当前实施的量化宽松

300
00:12:46,399 --> 00:12:47,639
看看红色线条

301
00:12:47,639 --> 00:12:49,299
这是油价走势

302
00:12:49,299 --> 00:12:55,039
注意每次美联储启动印钞机

303
00:12:55,039 --> 00:12:57,730
油价都走低或下跌

304
00:12:57,769 --> 00:12:59,049
油价暴跌

305
00:12:59,049 --> 00:13:00,149
为美联储腾出空间

306
00:13:00,149 --> 00:13:02,309
他们能印钞而不引发通胀

307
00:13:02,309 --> 00:13:05,649
因为当前能源成本较低

308
00:13:05,649 --> 00:13:07,149
尽管油价在上涨

309
00:13:07,149 --> 00:13:08,549
波动性极大

310
00:13:08,549 --> 00:13:11,360
这意味着美联储操作空间缩小

311
00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:13,440
如果现在印钞

312
00:13:13,440 --> 00:13:16,750
油价会加剧通胀

313
00:13:16,750 --> 00:13:17,950
如果这让你困惑

314
00:13:17,950 --> 00:13:18,990
想象一下

315
00:13:18,990 --> 00:13:20,669
这就像下一盘棋

316
00:13:20,669 --> 00:13:22,590
这是本杰明·考恩的比喻

317
00:13:22,590 --> 00:13:25,950
美联储必须同时防御两件事

318
00:13:25,950 --> 00:13:29,590
美联储称这是双重使命

319
00:13:29,590 --> 00:13:30,389
首要任务是控制通胀

320
00:13:30,389 --> 00:13:31,480
第二任务

321
00:13:31,480 --> 00:13:32,960
维持低失业率

322
00:13:37,940 --> 00:13:39,179
人们失业

323
00:13:39,179 --> 00:13:41,519
美联储降息应对

324
00:13:41,519 --> 00:13:44,039
廉价资金流入经济

325
00:13:44,039 --> 00:13:45,120
企业可以借贷

326
00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:45,919
重新招聘员工

327
00:13:45,919 --> 00:13:47,879
失业率得以保持低位

328
00:13:47,879 --> 00:13:51,068
通过降息来防御

329
00:13:51,068 --> 00:13:54,089
但当前通胀有所抬头

330
00:13:54,089 --> 00:13:57,529
根据美联储数据和油价波动

331
00:13:57,529 --> 00:13:59,289
油价飙升至每桶超百美元

332
00:13:59,289 --> 00:14:01,450
然后特朗普宣布战争结束

333
00:14:01,450 --> 00:14:03,029
油价回落至八十区间

334
00:14:03,029 --> 00:14:06,679
若战争持续超预期

335
00:14:06,679 --> 00:14:09,360
可能再次突破百美元

336
00:14:09,360 --> 00:14:11,360
当前趋势正朝此发展

337
00:14:11,360 --> 00:14:17,600
若美联储降息应对潜在衰退

338
00:14:17,600 --> 00:14:19,039
通胀可能反弹

339
00:14:19,039 --> 00:14:20,759
归因于油价上涨

340
00:14:20,759 --> 00:14:22,440
失业与通胀的平衡难题

341
00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:24,620
美联储只能一次对抗一个危机

342
00:14:24,620 --> 00:14:25,519
如果不这样

343
00:14:25,519 --> 00:14:28,360
那就是将死之局，即现在陷入衰退

344
00:14:28,360 --> 00:14:29,600
我们还没到那一步

345
00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:31,580
但我们将观察油价走势

346
00:14:31,580 --> 00:14:34,440
而目前油价与伊朗战争的命运紧密相连

347
00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:37,730
我们被告知这场战争将持续几周

348
00:14:37,730 --> 00:14:38,769
可能几个月

349
00:14:38,769 --> 00:14:40,429
但不会更久

350
00:14:40,429 --> 00:14:42,029
就我个人而言

351
00:14:42,029 --> 00:14:43,129
我不相信

352
00:14:43,129 --> 00:14:45,549
我确信我们的部队会成功

353
00:14:45,549 --> 00:14:47,409
我认为进展会相对迅速

354
00:14:47,409 --> 00:14:48,509
可能会持续

355
00:14:48,509 --> 00:14:50,740
你知道六天

356
00:14:50,740 --> 00:14:52,500
六周

357
00:14:53,210 --> 00:14:54,710
我怀疑六个月

358
00:14:54,710 --> 00:14:56,370
我们可以说是四周

359
00:14:56,370 --> 00:14:57,129
但可能是六周

360
00:14:57,129 --> 00:14:57,690
可能是八周

361
00:14:57,690 --> 00:14:58,599
可能是三周

362
00:14:58,599 --> 00:15:00,879
我们预计将持续四周到六周

363
00:15:00,879 --> 00:15:02,099
从一开始就

364
00:15:02,099 --> 00:15:04,759
我们预估为四周到五周

365
00:15:05,080 --> 00:15:09,370
但我们有能力持续更久

366
00:15:09,370 --> 00:15:11,009
这引出证据三

367
00:15:11,009 --> 00:15:13,519
不是他们不能印钞

368
00:15:13,519 --> 00:15:19,519
而是如今印钞的后果比历史上任何时候都严重

369
00:15:19,519 --> 00:15:21,220
你肯定听过无数次了

370
00:15:21,220 --> 00:15:23,179
但我想让大家明白

371
00:15:23,179 --> 00:15:26,759
我们的年度开支问题有多严重

372
00:15:26,759 --> 00:15:30,059
政府每年征收约5.2万亿美元税收

373
00:15:30,059 --> 00:15:31,179
包括所得税

374
00:15:31,179 --> 00:15:31,840
企业税

375
00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:32,519
 payroll税

376
00:15:32,519 --> 00:15:35,129
所有我们都不愿缴纳的税种

377
00:15:35,129 --> 00:15:38,129
5.2万亿美元是政府收入

378
00:15:38,129 --> 00:15:41,610
然后支出7万亿美元，甚至在

379
00:15:41,610 --> 00:15:43,590
我们讨论还债之前

380
00:15:43,590 --> 00:15:48,159
政府每年已超支近2万亿美元

381
00:15:48,159 --> 00:15:49,879
这就是赤字

382
00:15:49,879 --> 00:15:53,149
正是这个差额被计入债务

383
00:15:53,149 --> 00:15:56,169
但让我们看看这5.2万亿美元

384
00:15:56,169 --> 00:15:58,909
实际上如何分配

385
00:15:58,909 --> 00:16:00,750
这笔钱究竟去了哪里

386
00:16:00,750 --> 00:16:02,750
每美元的大约70%

387
00:16:02,750 --> 00:16:06,509
政府收入直接用于所谓福利支出

388
00:16:06,509 --> 00:16:09,110
这包括社会保障

389
00:16:09,110 --> 00:16:10,450
医保和医疗补助

390
00:16:10,450 --> 00:16:14,029
这是欠给婴儿潮一代的养老金

391
00:16:14,029 --> 00:16:16,470
他们的一生都在积累

392
00:16:16,470 --> 00:16:17,889
你不能就这样切断

393
00:16:17,889 --> 00:16:19,389
因为一旦你这么做

394
00:16:20,929 --> 00:16:24,649
经济收缩，税收还会进一步减少

395
00:16:24,649 --> 00:16:25,350
最终

396
00:16:25,350 --> 00:16:27,690
你反而会面临更大的赤字

397
00:16:27,690 --> 00:16:31,429
其中70%必须支付给他们

398
00:16:31,429 --> 00:16:35,318
还有这笔债务的利息

399
00:16:35,318 --> 00:16:41,328
这已经吞噬了每美元收入的30%

400
00:16:41,328 --> 00:16:42,908
这个数字正在加速增长

401
00:16:42,908 --> 00:16:43,208
不过

402
00:16:43,208 --> 00:16:47,229
因为旧债在更高利率下重新融资

403
00:16:47,229 --> 00:16:48,970
成本持续上涨

404
00:16:48,970 --> 00:16:49,490
事实上

405
00:16:49,490 --> 00:16:54,269
国会预算办公室认为仅利息支付将达约两

406
00:16:54,269 --> 00:16:56,940
一点万亿到2036年

407
00:16:56,940 --> 00:17:00,220
所以福利支出和利息支付暂停

408
00:17:00,220 --> 00:17:00,960
我们还没结束

409
00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:02,279
还有国防开支

410
00:17:02,279 --> 00:17:05,440
这也是20%不能削减

411
00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:07,299
仅这三项

412
00:17:07,299 --> 00:17:09,319
70%+30%+20%

413
00:17:09,319 --> 00:17:15,278
政府支出已占120%预算

414
00:17:15,278 --> 00:17:17,878
在真正惠及民众前

415
00:17:17,878 --> 00:17:20,598
如道路、学校和国家公园

416
00:17:20,598 --> 00:17:21,210
没错

417
00:17:21,210 --> 00:17:23,890
想想其他所有支出

418
00:17:23,890 --> 00:17:29,638
政府每年完全依赖借债运转

419
00:17:29,638 --> 00:17:32,118
仅债务利息

420
00:17:32,118 --> 00:17:36,529
加上福利已占联邦收入100%

421
00:17:36,529 --> 00:17:38,230
我们支付给老年人的费用

422
00:17:38,230 --> 00:17:39,890
和债务利息

423
00:17:39,890 --> 00:17:45,420
这两项已接近政府全部税收

424
00:17:45,420 --> 00:17:49,809
这也意味着若税收稍降

425
00:17:49,809 --> 00:17:53,430
比如油价上涨引发的衰退

426
00:17:53,430 --> 00:17:54,759
归功于战争

427
00:17:54,759 --> 00:17:56,920
或因为人工智能

428
00:17:56,920 --> 00:18:01,319
缴纳大部分所得税的白领被取代

429
00:18:01,319 --> 00:18:07,920
政府只能印钞才能履行基本义务

430
00:18:08,079 --> 00:18:10,559
这还没算更糟的情况

431
00:18:10,559 --> 00:18:11,970
可能会恶化

432
00:18:12,250 --> 00:18:14,109
之前提到的私人信贷市场

433
00:18:14,109 --> 00:18:17,190
规模达3万亿美元

434
00:18:17,230 --> 00:18:19,890
美国经济的重要部分

435
00:18:19,890 --> 00:18:24,199
如中小企业、房地产商和企业

436
00:18:24,199 --> 00:18:27,538
一直依赖这些私人信贷

437
00:18:27,538 --> 00:18:30,259
如黑石、阿波罗和蓝鹰

438
00:18:30,259 --> 00:18:36,480
这些贷款在高利率时到期且投资者要求回款

439
00:18:36,480 --> 00:18:38,279
而他们无法收回

440
00:18:38,279 --> 00:18:40,059
当信用枯竭时

441
00:18:40,059 --> 00:18:41,759
企业无法再融资

442
00:18:41,759 --> 00:18:43,449
于是开始削减成本

443
00:18:43,449 --> 00:18:45,189
开始裁员

444
00:18:45,189 --> 00:18:46,648
消费者支出下降

445
00:18:46,648 --> 00:18:47,869
税收收入减少

446
00:18:47,869 --> 00:18:48,970
当这种情况发生时

447
00:18:48,970 --> 00:18:51,009
整个系统压力剧增

448
00:18:51,009 --> 00:18:51,349
好的

449
00:18:51,349 --> 00:18:54,779
那么最终问题来了，解决办法是什么

450
00:18:54,779 --> 00:18:57,740
政府能做些什么才能摆脱这场危机

451
00:18:57,740 --> 00:18:59,460
有一些好消息

452
00:18:59,460 --> 00:19:01,980
或许未来会出现负利率

453
00:19:01,980 --> 00:19:02,460
没错

454
00:19:02,460 --> 00:19:05,319
注入流动性并迫使银行放贷

455
00:19:05,319 --> 00:19:07,839
或许再次实施量化宽松

456
00:19:07,839 --> 00:19:12,339
但这里有一个我认为最有趣的理论

457
00:19:12,339 --> 00:19:13,700
这可能会发生

458
00:19:13,700 --> 00:19:15,569
该理论如下

459
00:19:15,569 --> 00:19:20,769
如果重新评估黄金价值以重新抵押或压低

460
00:19:20,769 --> 00:19:22,250
实质上降低债务

461
00:19:22,250 --> 00:19:24,240
从而实现低债务水平

462
00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:26,400
然后可以进行重大

463
00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:30,279
更大幅度的经济体系及其关联变革

464
00:19:31,279 --> 00:19:35,049
而不必担心引发金融系统崩溃

465
00:19:35,049 --> 00:19:35,659
没错

466
00:19:35,659 --> 00:19:36,098
美国

467
00:19:36,098 --> 00:19:40,219
可能重新评估黄金至更高价格

468
00:19:40,219 --> 00:19:44,599
然后用作缓冲稳定油价

469
00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:46,319
我说了很多

470
00:19:46,319 --> 00:19:47,339
这意味着什么

471
00:19:47,339 --> 00:19:48,900
现在

472
00:19:48,900 --> 00:19:49,220
美国

473
00:19:49,220 --> 00:19:52,358
政府官方持有八千吨黄金

474
00:19:52,358 --> 00:19:55,858
据称这些黄金在政府资产负债表上

475
00:19:55,858 --> 00:20:02,140
但疯狂的是这些黄金仅按每盎司42美元计价

476
00:20:02,140 --> 00:20:02,779
现在

477
00:20:02,779 --> 00:20:05,138
这是官方定价

478
00:20:05,138 --> 00:20:09,058
自1973年未更新

479
00:20:09,058 --> 00:20:12,049
即尼克松时代

480
00:20:12,049 --> 00:20:15,930
政府为何要压低自身黄金价格

481
00:20:15,930 --> 00:20:20,059
因为黄金与债券竞争

482
00:20:20,059 --> 00:20:22,839
这一点通过注意

483
00:20:22,839 --> 00:20:26,259
斯科特·贝桑在这一段结尾的评论可知

484
00:20:26,259 --> 00:20:29,380
有一件事你无法用黄金做到

485
00:20:29,380 --> 00:20:32,009
却能用债券做到

486
00:20:38,659 --> 00:20:43,138
黄金无法应对

487
00:20:44,809 --> 00:20:45,829
一场战争

488
00:20:45,829 --> 00:20:47,359
所以我们不能使用黄金

489
00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:50,779
因为黄金无法用于资助更多战争

490
00:20:50,779 --> 00:20:52,859
因为我们不能再增印更多

491
00:20:52,859 --> 00:20:55,609
所以每当黄金价格上涨

492
00:20:55,650 --> 00:20:57,789
这基本上是市场在表达

493
00:20:57,789 --> 00:20:59,509
我们信任这块闪亮的石头

494
00:21:00,809 --> 00:21:02,319
这向世界宣告

495
00:21:02,319 --> 00:21:03,859
不要购买国债

496
00:21:03,859 --> 00:21:05,299
不要持有它们，持有黄金

497
00:21:05,299 --> 00:21:05,940
相反

498
00:21:05,940 --> 00:21:13,299
这对一个需要全球持续购买其债务的国家来说是个糟糕的事情

499
00:21:13,299 --> 00:21:18,059
这就是为什么美国政府持有的黄金价格被锁定在四

500
00:21:18,059 --> 00:21:19,359
每盎司两美元

501
00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:25,400
然而如今现实世界中的黄金价格并非每盎司四十美元

502
00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:28,750
目前交易价格已超过每盎司五千美元

503
00:21:33,390 --> 00:21:35,130
这被称为按市价计价

504
00:21:35,130 --> 00:21:38,210
这意味着那堆美国

505
00:21:38,210 --> 00:21:38,670
政府

506
00:21:38,670 --> 00:21:43,769
黄金从账面上价值约十一亿美元

507
00:21:43,769 --> 00:21:48,369
变为实际价值接近一点三万亿美元

508
00:21:48,369 --> 00:21:51,950
因此我们可以凭空创造出超过一万亿美元的实物资产

509
00:21:51,950 --> 00:21:54,430
几乎只是通过会计手段

510
00:21:54,430 --> 00:21:55,759
这就像一个魔术

511
00:21:55,759 --> 00:21:56,279
现在

512
00:21:56,279 --> 00:21:59,299
在整体规模中一点三万亿美元

513
00:21:59,299 --> 00:22:00,660
并不是很多钱

514
00:22:00,660 --> 00:22:02,970
无法偿还国家债务

515
00:22:02,970 --> 00:22:04,980
但这并不需要

516
00:22:04,980 --> 00:22:05,759
他们也可以

517
00:22:05,759 --> 00:22:12,589
从理论上讲可以将黄金重新估值为远高于市场的价格

518
00:22:12,589 --> 00:22:15,309
现在他们完全可以这样做

519
00:22:15,309 --> 00:22:16,210
如果这听起来疯狂

520
00:22:16,210 --> 00:22:16,890
你说得对

521
00:22:16,890 --> 00:22:18,599
但u

522
00:22:18,599 --> 00:22:18,799
S

523
00:22:18,799 --> 00:22:20,380
政府之前做过这件事

524
00:22:20,380 --> 00:22:22,519
还有三次

525
00:22:22,650 --> 00:22:24,390
第一次是在1934年

526
00:22:24,390 --> 00:22:25,490
在大萧条时期

527
00:22:25,490 --> 00:22:27,069
罗斯福急需资金

528
00:22:27,069 --> 00:22:28,450
因为经济正在崩溃

529
00:22:28,450 --> 00:22:29,970
政府几乎破产

530
00:22:29,970 --> 00:22:33,069
于是他签署了第6102号行政令

531
00:22:33,069 --> 00:22:39,220
你需要以官方20美元一盎司的价格向政府上交黄金

532
00:22:39,220 --> 00:22:41,660
当政府收集了所有人的黄金后

533
00:22:41,660 --> 00:22:44,839
他们立即一夜之间将价格下调至3

534
00:22:44,839 --> 00:22:46,519
5美元一盎司

535
00:22:46,519 --> 00:22:48,670
上涨了70%

536
00:22:48,869 --> 00:22:51,609
国库资产负债表瞬间获得提振

537
00:22:51,609 --> 00:22:55,509
无需借入一分钱也无需增税

538
00:22:55,630 --> 00:22:57,630
第二次是在1972年

539
00:22:57,630 --> 00:23:00,069
尼克松将黄金价格从35美元调整至38美元

540
00:23:00,069 --> 00:23:01,069
每盎司8美元

541
00:23:01,069 --> 00:23:03,630
第三次是在1973年

542
00:23:03,630 --> 00:23:07,269
尼克松再次将其调至42.22美分

543
00:23:07,269 --> 00:23:12,200
之后五十多年再无动静

544
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:17,210
价格一直冻结在42.22美元

545
00:23:17,210 --> 00:23:24,259
而市场金价从42美元涨至千美元、两千、三千

546
00:23:24,259 --> 00:23:26,900
如今已超过五千美元每盎司

547
00:23:26,900 --> 00:23:30,059
这在美国历史上已发生三次

548
00:23:30,059 --> 00:23:32,069
由两位总统实施

549
00:23:32,069 --> 00:23:37,630
每次都被用作紧急措施以巩固政府资产负债表

550
00:23:37,630 --> 00:23:40,849
当别无他法时

551
00:23:40,849 --> 00:23:43,470
美国还有第二个理由需要重新定价黄金

552
00:23:43,470 --> 00:23:45,500
黄金还可作为释放阀稳定油价

553
00:23:45,819 --> 00:23:53,700
石油输出国如沙特和欧佩克

554
00:23:53,700 --> 00:23:58,609
为何选择以美元出售石油

555
00:23:58,609 --> 00:23:59,710
阿拉伯和欧佩克

556
00:23:59,710 --> 00:24:02,569
首先是因为上世纪70年代的协议

557
00:24:02,569 --> 00:24:05,990
你以美元定价石油

558
00:24:05,990 --> 00:24:08,289
将利润存入美国国债

559
00:24:08,289 --> 00:24:10,049
并保证美元坚挺

560
00:24:10,049 --> 00:24:11,240
美国国债

561
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:13,799
所以我们不会被贬值

562
00:24:13,799 --> 00:24:15,079
我们保护你们

563
00:24:15,079 --> 00:24:16,519
这就是石油美元体系

564
00:24:16,519 --> 00:24:18,579
但若不再用美元国债支付石油收益

565
00:24:18,579 --> 00:24:23,140
这些国债正在贬值

566
00:24:23,140 --> 00:24:24,759
且越来越少国家接受

567
00:24:24,759 --> 00:24:27,179
若改用黄金支付

568
00:24:27,179 --> 00:24:29,598
不是普通黄金

569
00:24:29,598 --> 00:24:30,699
而是更高价格的黄金

570
00:24:30,699 --> 00:24:31,159
没错

571
00:24:31,159 --> 00:24:33,509
以更高价格定价

572
00:24:33,750 --> 00:24:34,650
现在

573
00:24:34,650 --> 00:24:36,690
油价正在飙升

574
00:24:36,690 --> 00:24:39,609
可能摧毁全球经济

575
00:24:39,609 --> 00:24:40,638
潜在风险

576
00:24:40,638 --> 00:24:43,959
若美国对沙特等国说

577
00:24:43,959 --> 00:24:44,439
嘿

578
00:24:44,439 --> 00:24:46,859
我们以每桶50美元购买石油

579
00:24:46,859 --> 00:24:50,819
但用每盎司1万美元的黄金支付

580
00:24:50,819 --> 00:24:52,660
在这样的比率下

581
00:24:52,660 --> 00:24:56,659
他们每桶获得的购买力反而更多

582
00:24:56,659 --> 00:24:57,098
比如

583
00:24:57,098 --> 00:24:58,439
以100美元时

584
00:24:58,439 --> 00:24:59,798
他们可能接受此协议

585
00:24:59,798 --> 00:25:05,980
美国或许暂时这样做以补充战略石油储备

586
00:25:05,980 --> 00:25:07,619
油价可能会下跌

587
00:25:07,619 --> 00:25:11,059
通胀下降，美联储将获得喘息空间

588
00:25:13,460 --> 00:25:15,069
美国为此买单

589
00:25:15,069 --> 00:25:16,369
不是用印钞

590
00:25:16,369 --> 00:25:23,089
但用黄金已大幅升值且未引发通胀

591
00:25:23,089 --> 00:25:25,160
如果这听起来疯狂

592
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:27,359
这不是新想法

593
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:28,900
早在1973年

594
00:25:28,900 --> 00:25:30,759
阿拉伯石油禁运之后

595
00:25:30,759 --> 00:25:33,299
欧洲国家计划这样做

596
00:25:33,299 --> 00:25:34,779
重新估值其黄金储备

597
00:25:34,779 --> 00:25:38,400
然后用黄金支付对欧佩克的账单

598
00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:40,059
美国予以阻止

599
00:25:40,059 --> 00:25:41,839
他们需要石油以美元计价

600
00:25:41,839 --> 00:25:45,349
建立石油美元体系并推广自由

601
00:25:45,349 --> 00:25:46,970
但如今美国

602
00:25:46,970 --> 00:25:52,599
可能陷入无解的油价驱动通胀

603
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:54,319
这是一个可能选项

604
00:25:54,319 --> 00:25:56,359
之前曾实施过

605
00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:57,740
这是否适用于比特币

606
00:25:57,740 --> 00:26:00,279
是否必然发生

607
00:26:00,279 --> 00:26:01,980
不一定

608
00:26:01,980 --> 00:26:03,019
但存在可能性

609
00:26:03,019 --> 00:26:04,980
我认为这是非常有趣的理论

610
00:26:04,980 --> 00:26:08,930
我很想听听你的观点和评论

611
00:26:08,930 --> 00:26:09,470
一如既往

612
00:26:09,470 --> 00:26:10,970
祝你度过美好余下时光

613
00:26:10,970 --> 00:26:12,170
点赞订阅

614
00:26:12,170 --> 00:26:13,119
如果还没的话

615
00:26:13,119 --> 00:26:15,000
期待下周再见

616
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:15,960
很快见

617
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:16,839
再见

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