【UNRIVALED INVESTING】贝索斯火箭炸了，马斯克暗中捅刀：太空通信巨头被高估50%？

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就在昨天

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杰夫·贝索斯和蓝色起源

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新格伦火箭在发射台以史诗级方式爆炸

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他立即转到推特

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强调所有人员均已清点并安全

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承认今天是个艰难的日子

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但会重建需要修复的部分并重返飞行

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这是值得的

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埃隆·马斯克

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竞争对手随即回应

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在磨难中将阿斯特拉推向星辰

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所以会有挑战

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但这是值得的

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或许因这次爆炸引发共鸣

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SpaceX表示他们

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或传闻将其IPO估值从两万亿降至一点

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八万亿此前曾做SpaceX视频

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指出该碟片

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基础支持与数百亿美元存在巨大差异

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而埃隆·马斯克要求的两万亿估值

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感兴趣的话请查看该视频

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但其他多家航天相关股票随此事件下跌

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Astro Mobile今日市值暴跌15%至20%

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我此视频旨在深入分析Astro或Astro Mobile

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以理解

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此次抛售是否潜在机会

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并分析商业模式

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让我们探讨我的个人见解

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该业务虽潜力巨大

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可能已超前发展

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投资者显然非常兴奋

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而我看到投资者如此兴奋时略感不安

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Astro股价未来可能大幅回调

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这并非意外

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这是我个人观点

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视频结尾欢迎分享你的看法

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观看视频后

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告诉我

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是否过于保守

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让我们分析Astro过去五年表现

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股价上涨近1500%

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惊人的增长

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原因在于他们自称

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构建首个也是唯一的空间基宽带网络

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商业模式相对清晰

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通过与地球移动运营商合作提供太空基站

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这种合作关系十分互补

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你知道的

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拥有超过50家移动网络运营商合作伙伴

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他们目前拥有这些移动网络运营商合作伙伴

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他们拥有六亿订阅用户

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因此他们的关系覆盖了地球的大部分地区

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真实客户

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真实投资者

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在某些情况下涉及资产

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这一价值主张的核心

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这些移动网络运营商的问题在于卫星连接会消除信号盲区

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这些运营商无需新建基站

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你或许能因此收取更高费用

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说吧

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也许你需要某种卫星服务

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你知道的，高端服务

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你将获得更高收入

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更低

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客户流失

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最终运营商能保持客户关系

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可以将AST视为批发合作伙伴

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为移动网络运营商提供连接服务

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还有大量其他收入

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AST的潜在增长点

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政府与国防支出

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可能包括应急服务

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还有许多附加

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可能推出高端服务套餐

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如果你的移动网络运营商说

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哦

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你知道的

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如果你计划出行

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我们可以

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我们也能为你定制套餐

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因此存在大量

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你知道的

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超越单纯运营的机会

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因此这可能在未来成为数十亿美元的销售额

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话说回来

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如果看看当前情况

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第一季度收入仅约1500万美元

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相比去年大幅增长

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但大部分收入来自地面站设备及软件销售

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和

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S

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政府相关里程碑

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将1500万美元收入与1.64亿美元运营成本对比

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4400万美元运营开支

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可见该业务仍在年亏损数亿美元

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2026年目标

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至少他们指引显示将持续快速扩张

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2026年营收目标为1.5-2亿美元

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这表明1500万美元将大幅增长本年度

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这一目标主要源于约40个预期部署

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2026年轨道上将部署五颗蓝鸟卫星

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他们使用多家发射服务商

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其中包括这也是导致今日股价下跌15%至20%的原因之一

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蓝色起源

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SpaceX及其他公司

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当你拥有关键发射服务商之一

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这是句子开头部分

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蓝色起源

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你知道在发射台上爆炸了

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这会制造无法达到四十颗卫星的不确定性

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2026年实现五颗卫星部署目标

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顺便说一下这并非蓝色起源首次遭遇挫折

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你知道的

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是的

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你昨天就发生了这次爆炸

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但四月他们也未能将蓝鸟七号卫星送入预定轨道

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因此不得不提前退役

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所以是的

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或许他们可以更多依赖SpaceX或其他机构发射卫星

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但确实

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你知道的

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失去三大关键供应商之一

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或者

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你知道的

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潜在延误会为现金流消耗严重的公司带来挑战

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可能会延迟

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对于像Asts这样的公司每月都很关键

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尤其是当他们说

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我们需要将这些卫星送入轨道

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以便开始收费并获得移动网络收入

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现在考虑他们目前的情况

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轨道上已有约六颗可用蓝鸟卫星

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能够提供测试和演示

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他们需要达到约四到五颗

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五到六十颗

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我相信需要达到六十颗才能在关键市场提供连续服务

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比如美国

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他们表示每颗卫星成本约为2100万至2300万美元

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这表明需要额外约10亿美元资本支出

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仅为此目标

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因此可以说

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未来十二个月内完成

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让我们知道

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假设他们需要推迟四到五颗卫星目标

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五颗卫星目标

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但要实现更广泛的全球目标可能需要接近九十颗蓝鸟卫星

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届时资本支出将接近20亿美元

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存在可能超出2100万至2300万美元单颗目标的风险

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他们之前提到的每颗卫星成本

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这是一个问题

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我想是蓝鸟七号

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这花费远超预期

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然后

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现在二十一点到二十三框架正在呼吁投资

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预计需要投入一到两亿美元达到目标

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就卫星而言

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将它们送入轨道

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这还不包括他们的

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你知道的

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地面运营的季度现金消耗

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因此需要数亿美元的投资

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他们必须持续现金消耗

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然而

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管理层拥有稳健的流动性状况

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足以支撑他们的发展需求

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我认为未来几年至少要验证商业模式

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因为他们说看

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我们有35亿美元流动性

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那么问题在于

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你知道的

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在考虑ASTS时

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太空移动

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它值多少钱

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你知道的

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如何整合所有这些要素

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如何

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你知道的

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与现有市值进行比较

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嗯

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首先

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这不是财务建议

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我只是分享一些看法

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当我查看这只股票时

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我将快速推荐Unrivaled投资

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一位高级会员写道

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我最近支付了第二年订阅费，非常开心

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已获利足够覆盖未来二十年订阅费用

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罗宾表示我非常满意

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Unrivaled客户

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你们提供的信息服务非常宝贵

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如果你在寻找优质投资机会

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我会实时分享投资组合更新

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如果你对参与深度研究社区感兴趣

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你知道的

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深入分析个别公司

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访问UnrivaledInvesting.com

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顺便说一句，本月剩余时间

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我将提供财务报表分析课程作为补充

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Unrivaled投资新增两位订阅者

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如果你想更深入地理解和阅读财务报表

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A pre

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你知道的

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理解故事的核心

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他们想传达的信息

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这基于我自己的从业经验

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你知道在卖方和买方市场

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你知道的

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希望能赋予你

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我最初想知道的

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当我刚开始的时候

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顺便说一句

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我是Flash的联合创始人

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我们你知道的，利用AI帮助你分析

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你知道任何全球股票

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我们有投资组合监控

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可以帮助你分析你的投资组合

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现在我们推出了内幕情报

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还包含国会交易详情

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我们有他们的买卖记录

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所以在考虑ASTS

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它必须做到为亿万美元的O或移动网络运营商销售

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因为这显然是他们的目标

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所以说

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我们有潜力通过这些移动网络运营商赚取数十亿美元

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有很多步骤

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所以在达成目标前必须先完成

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他们需要发射足够多的卫星

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需要证明可靠服务

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而不仅仅是漂亮演示

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00:09:37,799 --> 00:09:39,740
他们已用现有六颗卫星展示了

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00:09:39,740 --> 00:09:41,120
你知道的

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00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:41,299
嘿

233
00:09:41,299 --> 00:09:42,859
我们有了可行方案

234
00:09:42,859 --> 00:09:45,399
他们必须完成运营商整合

235
00:09:45,399 --> 00:09:47,339
你知道的地面硬件

236
00:09:47,339 --> 00:09:51,649
需要将更多合作伙伴关系转化为正式商业合同

237
00:09:51,649 --> 00:09:54,210
这与第二点密切相关

238
00:09:54,210 --> 00:09:56,210
即证明可靠服务

239
00:09:56,210 --> 00:10:00,070
需获得特定市场的监管频谱许可

240
00:10:00,070 --> 00:10:02,750
这也是关键部分

241
00:10:02,750 --> 00:10:08,669
移动网络运营商需将产品打包面向愿意付费的消费者

242
00:10:08,669 --> 00:10:09,190
说

243
00:10:09,190 --> 00:10:12,690
顺便说，现在我们新增了付费死区覆盖

244
00:10:12,690 --> 00:10:14,299
或额外两美元你应该支付

245
00:10:14,299 --> 00:10:16,179
这样你就能获得卫星覆盖

246
00:10:17,299 --> 00:10:20,799
这是运营商的销售策略

247
00:10:20,799 --> 00:10:22,919
我已经讨论过为什么这是胜利

248
00:10:22,919 --> 00:10:23,639
对移动网络运营商的胜利

249
00:10:23,639 --> 00:10:24,990
米诺和阿斯特

250
00:10:24,990 --> 00:10:26,710
但这是一个值得深思的动态

251
00:10:26,710 --> 00:10:29,970
然后你必须避免任何发射节奏的延误

252
00:10:29,970 --> 00:10:32,750
你知道你刚刚看到新格伦的情况

253
00:10:32,750 --> 00:10:35,210
这就是所有步骤

254
00:10:35,210 --> 00:10:38,190
或者至少是许多关键步骤

255
00:10:38,190 --> 00:10:39,230
艺术领域有很多内容

256
00:10:39,230 --> 00:10:43,559
我认为在达到这一步前会有大量不确定性

257
00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:45,019
一亿美元营收

258
00:10:45,019 --> 00:10:46,419
他们必须证明这一点

259
00:10:46,419 --> 00:10:47,779
有很多步骤

260
00:10:47,779 --> 00:10:49,490
我认为他们能做到

261
00:10:49,490 --> 00:10:52,090
我认为他们能及时完成

262
00:10:52,090 --> 00:10:53,210
这就是我的猜测

263
00:10:53,210 --> 00:10:55,350
但我也在看你在支付什么

264
00:10:55,350 --> 00:10:57,750
目前每股约110美元

265
00:10:57,750 --> 00:11:00,049
即使扣除今日折扣后

266
00:11:00,049 --> 00:11:04,470
约3.9亿流通股需考虑在内

267
00:11:04,470 --> 00:11:05,820
你必须是的

268
00:11:05,820 --> 00:11:07,580
有些人会说丹尼尔

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00:11:07,580 --> 00:11:08,220
你错了

270
00:11:08,220 --> 00:11:09,139
你需要做工作

271
00:11:09,139 --> 00:11:12,019
我我我确定我三核检查过这个数字

272
00:11:12,019 --> 00:11:13,860
因为他纳入了C类股份

273
00:11:13,860 --> 00:11:15,240
C股也包含在内

274
00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:18,860
这是一个非常庞大的稀释后数据

275
00:11:18,860 --> 00:11:20,700
因此你谈论的是市值

276
00:11:20,700 --> 00:11:24,419
目前超过400亿美元

277
00:11:24,419 --> 00:11:25,139
这就是

278
00:11:25,139 --> 00:11:28,480
我认为这是投资者真正难以理解的点

279
00:11:28,480 --> 00:11:31,349
投资者会对故事非常兴奋

280
00:11:31,349 --> 00:11:33,129
但随后过度延伸

281
00:11:33,129 --> 00:11:35,548
并与现实脱节

282
00:11:35,548 --> 00:11:37,489
实际基本面支撑是什么

283
00:11:37,489 --> 00:11:41,700
你的业务仍需证明能否实现

284
00:11:41,700 --> 00:11:43,419
我刚才展示了所有这些步骤

285
00:11:43,419 --> 00:11:45,620
达到一亿美元营收

286
00:11:45,620 --> 00:11:47,500
我怀疑他们能做到

287
00:11:47,500 --> 00:11:48,720
假设在未来十二

288
00:11:48,720 --> 00:11:49,000
两个月

289
00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:49,690
四个月

290
00:11:49,690 --> 00:11:51,649
即使达成目标

291
00:11:51,649 --> 00:11:53,289
实现一亿美元营收

292
00:11:53,289 --> 00:11:56,339
这仍将显得极其昂贵

293
00:11:56,339 --> 00:12:00,839
相对于40多亿美元的市值

294
00:12:00,839 --> 00:12:04,690
而我认为情况更糟

295
00:12:04,690 --> 00:12:06,309
因为星链

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00:12:06,309 --> 00:12:09,440
这是我为SpaceX视频制作的幻灯片

297
00:12:09,440 --> 00:12:10,659
你可以查看

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00:12:10,659 --> 00:12:16,889
星链是SpaceX的惊人现金流驱动器

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00:12:16,889 --> 00:12:17,730
一千万

300
00:12:17,730 --> 00:12:20,629
在一百六十个国家拥有百万订阅用户

301
00:12:20,629 --> 00:12:22,809
营收十一亿美元

302
00:12:22,809 --> 00:12:27,850
他们已经为想要进入自然环境的人验证了可行性

303
00:12:27,850 --> 00:12:30,149
然后实现网络连接

304
00:12:30,149 --> 00:12:33,240
或需要宽带的备用互联网连接

305
00:12:33,240 --> 00:12:34,320
我正在看这个

306
00:12:34,320 --> 00:12:36,820
我觉得星林已经验证过了

307
00:12:36,820 --> 00:12:40,110
他们已经有了客户关系

308
00:12:40,110 --> 00:12:42,690
什么阻止他们说

309
00:12:42,690 --> 00:12:45,720
我们拥有宽带业务

310
00:12:45,960 --> 00:12:49,799
为什么不有效利用这来压制ASTS

311
00:12:49,799 --> 00:12:52,210
如果我们想逐步推进的话

312
00:12:52,210 --> 00:12:55,129
毕竟我们还有其他收入驱动因素

313
00:12:55,129 --> 00:12:57,909
顺便说我们还拥有发射业务

314
00:12:57,909 --> 00:13:01,710
因此我们在成本上更具竞争力

315
00:13:01,710 --> 00:13:06,970
我看竞争对手在时间表上领先你

316
00:13:06,970 --> 00:13:10,389
将筹集大量资金

317
00:13:10,389 --> 00:13:12,049
通过IPO

318
00:13:12,570 --> 00:13:16,509
准备成为强劲竞争对手

319
00:13:16,509 --> 00:13:17,169
你知道的

320
00:13:17,169 --> 00:13:18,690
与埃隆·马斯克竞争

321
00:13:18,690 --> 00:13:20,730
并不容易

322
00:13:20,730 --> 00:13:24,649
他们已经证明这一领域能表现优异

323
00:13:24,649 --> 00:13:25,330
所以你可以

324
00:13:25,330 --> 00:13:27,070
理论上拥有这一领域

325
00:13:27,070 --> 00:13:29,429
现有的宽带连接业务

326
00:13:29,429 --> 00:13:30,830
创建补贴计划

327
00:13:30,830 --> 00:13:31,698
哦好吧

328
00:13:31,698 --> 00:13:33,619
我们想挤干

329
00:13:33,619 --> 00:13:34,099
你知道的

330
00:13:34,099 --> 00:13:35,999
移动网络关系

331
00:13:35,999 --> 00:13:37,058
我们可以压低价格

332
00:13:37,058 --> 00:13:39,029
低于ASTS的报价

333
00:13:39,029 --> 00:13:39,450
所以

334
00:13:39,450 --> 00:13:42,970
我认为ASTS有望在未来几年达到

335
00:13:42,970 --> 00:13:45,129
数十亿美元营收

336
00:13:45,129 --> 00:13:49,479
但其市值已预估在四十亿美元以上

337
00:13:49,479 --> 00:13:50,519
实际上是在说

338
00:13:50,519 --> 00:13:51,000
是的

339
00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:52,500
你终将成功

340
00:13:52,500 --> 00:13:54,549
利润率会很高

341
00:13:54,549 --> 00:13:56,750
再加上丰厚的估值倍数

342
00:13:56,750 --> 00:13:57,830
前景一片光明

343
00:13:57,830 --> 00:13:58,669
顺风顺水

344
00:13:58,669 --> 00:14:00,129
未来不会出现重大问题

345
00:14:00,129 --> 00:14:01,580
敲木棒保平安

346
00:14:01,580 --> 00:14:05,720
我认为更应寻找未被高估的情况

347
00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:08,350
所以我在观察这个

348
00:14:08,350 --> 00:14:13,379
在我看来这是当前市场状况的例证

349
00:14:13,379 --> 00:14:17,009
在许多人寄予希望和梦想的地方

350
00:14:17,009 --> 00:14:19,049
展望企业未来几年的发展前景

351
00:14:19,049 --> 00:14:21,090
怀有希望和梦想并无不妥

352
00:14:21,090 --> 00:14:22,649
每个人都应有自己的抱负

353
00:14:22,649 --> 00:14:24,470
关于他们想如何度过人生

354
00:14:24,470 --> 00:14:25,750
但重要的是要认识到

355
00:14:25,750 --> 00:14:30,909
抱负与实现它的汗水之间存在区别

356
00:14:30,909 --> 00:14:34,659
在这种情况下你知道需要付出大量努力

357
00:14:34,659 --> 00:14:38,629
才能达到四十亿美元以上的估值

358
00:14:38,629 --> 00:14:42,230
甚至仅要实现十亿美元营收

359
00:14:42,230 --> 00:14:44,919
我希望这段视频对你有所帮助

360
00:14:44,919 --> 00:14:46,960
如果是这样请务必点个赞

361
00:14:46,960 --> 00:14:47,919
点击订阅按钮

362
00:14:47,919 --> 00:14:48,580
你正在观看

363
00:14:48,580 --> 00:14:49,379
无与伦比

364
00:14:49,379 --> 00:14:49,820
投资

365
00:14:49,820 --> 00:14:51,559
感谢您的观看

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