260428-高盛-立高食品：盈利回顾：2025年第四季度2026年第一季度，NI公司新客户拓展未达预期；全年增长符合计划，但2026年上半年成本锁定；买入

1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:00,560
大家好

2
00:00:00,560 --> 00:00:02,720
今天咱们直接切入正题

3
00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:06,730
来做一期关于立高食品近期财报的深度解读

4
00:00:06,730 --> 00:00:07,610
说实话

5
00:00:07,610 --> 00:00:10,369
如果你一直关注这家冷冻烘焙龙头

6
00:00:10,369 --> 00:00:12,369
看到最近的这些头条数据

7
00:00:12,369 --> 00:00:14,210
你心里绝对会犯嘀咕

8
00:00:14,210 --> 00:00:15,529
对吧别急

9
00:00:15,529 --> 00:00:18,010
今天咱们就来层层抽丝剥茧

10
00:00:18,010 --> 00:00:20,769
把这堆复杂的数据翻译成大白话

11
00:00:20,769 --> 00:00:23,890
看漫水面之下到底藏着什么玄机

12
00:00:23,890 --> 00:00:28,809
其实啊咱们今天就是要破解一个核心的谜题

13
00:00:28,809 --> 00:00:30,149
立高食品

14
00:00:30,149 --> 00:00:32,729
明明在第四季度和第一季度的净利润

15
00:00:32,729 --> 00:00:33,729
都不及预期

16
00:00:33,729 --> 00:00:35,030
算是考砸了

17
00:00:35,030 --> 00:00:36,149
但你猜怎么着

18
00:00:36,149 --> 00:00:39,810
高盛居然还死死维持着对他的买入评级

19
00:00:39,810 --> 00:00:42,719
这事儿听起来是不是香港反直觉啊

20
00:00:42,719 --> 00:00:46,399
一般来说业绩暴雷肯定伴随着评级下调对吧

21
00:00:46,399 --> 00:00:48,820
但这回情况显然没那么简单

22
00:00:48,820 --> 00:00:50,098
里头大有文章

23
00:00:50,098 --> 00:00:51,418
咱们看这个数字

24
00:00:51,418 --> 00:00:53,200
这就更有意思了

25
00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:55,759
高盛其实把立高食品

26
00:00:55,759 --> 00:00:59,359
2026年到2028年的净利润预测

27
00:00:59,359 --> 00:01:01,140
非常狠的砍掉了

28
00:01:01,140 --> 00:01:02,200
24~26

29
00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:02,979
不是ANDY

30
00:01:02,979 --> 00:01:04,799
这可不是挠痒痒

31
00:01:04,799 --> 00:01:07,310
这是一个非常夸张的下调幅度

32
00:01:07,310 --> 00:01:09,590
一边大幅度下调利润预期

33
00:01:09,590 --> 00:01:11,370
另一边又喊着买入

34
00:01:11,370 --> 00:01:14,009
这种强烈的反差到底凭什么

35
00:01:14,009 --> 00:01:15,668
咱们得好好挖一挖

36
00:01:15,668 --> 00:01:19,209
看看机构这长期的信心到底是哪里来的

37
00:01:19,209 --> 00:01:21,489
那么为了把这事彻底弄明白

38
00:01:21,489 --> 00:01:23,569
我们今天的解读会过一遍

39
00:01:23,569 --> 00:01:24,829
这几个关键点

40
00:01:24,829 --> 00:01:27,159
先看一眼财报到底怎么说

41
00:01:27,159 --> 00:01:29,909
再拆解利润率承压的原因

42
00:01:29,909 --> 00:01:33,510
接着看看他们是怎么聪明的控制原料成本的

43
00:01:33,510 --> 00:01:37,698
最后落脚到销售渠道的变化和对未来的展望上

44
00:01:37,698 --> 00:01:40,259
好咱们先从第一部分看起

45
00:01:40,259 --> 00:01:42,399
直接重点先来挖个底

46
00:01:42,399 --> 00:01:44,769
看看这业绩到底差了多少

47
00:01:44,769 --> 00:01:47,760
咱们仔细对一对一季度的数据啊

48
00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:51,579
营业利润实际只做到了8100万

49
00:01:51,579 --> 00:01:54,400
而预期可是1.31个亿

50
00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:57,099
净利润也只有6400万

51
00:01:57,099 --> 00:01:58,819
预期可是要破亿

52
00:01:58,819 --> 00:02:00,840
达到1.08亿的

53
00:02:00,840 --> 00:02:03,480
这差距可以说是肉眼可见的明显

54
00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:06,269
也难怪市场一开始会吓一跳了

55
00:02:06,269 --> 00:02:07,609
这么大的业绩落差

56
00:02:07,609 --> 00:02:09,270
高盛的反应倒也实在

57
00:02:09,270 --> 00:02:11,669
直接把目标价从将近50块钱

58
00:02:11,669 --> 00:02:14,650
也就是49.1元砍到了44元

59
00:02:14,650 --> 00:02:15,729
但是划重点了

60
00:02:15,729 --> 00:02:16,250
朋友们

61
00:02:16,250 --> 00:02:19,159
他们硬是咬死了买入评级没松口

62
00:02:19,159 --> 00:02:21,919
这其实就是释放了一个特别强烈的信号

63
00:02:21,919 --> 00:02:24,280
在这些短期的波动和阵痛之下

64
00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:26,159
他们认定这家公司依然藏着

65
00:02:26,159 --> 00:02:27,949
真金白银的长期价值

66
00:02:27,949 --> 00:02:29,539
那么问题来了

67
00:02:29,539 --> 00:02:32,520
少赚的钱到底花去哪儿了

68
00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:33,900
咱们进入第二部分

69
00:02:33,900 --> 00:02:37,329
一起来拆解一下这个所谓的利润率压力

70
00:02:37,329 --> 00:02:39,049
咱们得看清楚一点

71
00:02:39,049 --> 00:02:41,699
这可不是什么盲目的亏损流血

72
00:02:41,699 --> 00:02:44,909
人家力高食品是自己在主动掏腰包

73
00:02:44,909 --> 00:02:46,189
他们干嘛去了呢

74
00:02:46,189 --> 00:02:48,669
他们在给那些核心的KA大客户

75
00:02:48,669 --> 00:02:51,030
建那种日配的烘焙车间

76
00:02:51,030 --> 00:02:53,770
也就是每天新鲜送达的产线

77
00:02:53,770 --> 00:02:54,789
不仅如此

78
00:02:54,789 --> 00:02:58,810
他们还在疯狂招男扩充餐饮营销团队的编制

79
00:02:58,810 --> 00:03:02,569
说白了这些都是为了抢占未来市场在铺路

80
00:03:02,569 --> 00:03:03,729
这就好比什么呢

81
00:03:03,729 --> 00:03:07,360
就好比你要烤一个超级惊艳的十层大蛋糕

82
00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:11,060
那你前妻是不是得先狠下心买个顶配的烤箱

83
00:03:11,060 --> 00:03:13,419
这就是前期结构性的投资

84
00:03:13,419 --> 00:03:17,099
我们来看看他们2025年预期的基本盘

85
00:03:17,099 --> 00:03:18,099
长什么样

86
00:03:18,099 --> 00:03:18,900
很明显

87
00:03:18,900 --> 00:03:22,340
冷冻烘焙产品依然是绝对的重头戏

88
00:03:22,340 --> 00:03:26,199
占了总销售的53帕大半壁江山啊

89
00:03:26,199 --> 00:03:28,960
紧跟着的是占28%的奶油

90
00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:31,680
你一旦懂了他们到底在卖什么

91
00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:33,240
你瞬间就能get到

92
00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:35,699
为什么他们宁可短期利润承压

93
00:03:35,699 --> 00:03:39,400
也要砸重金去搞线下车间和冷链配送了

94
00:03:39,400 --> 00:03:41,169
这是在挖护城河啊

95
00:03:41,169 --> 00:03:45,729
既然短期要忍受这种利润率缩水的阵痛

96
00:03:45,729 --> 00:03:47,129
咱们进入第三部分

97
00:03:47,129 --> 00:03:48,150
看盘力高

98
00:03:48,150 --> 00:03:51,800
在原料成本上打出了什么聪明的防御牌

99
00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:52,680
不得不说

100
00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:54,199
他们在供应链这块儿

101
00:03:54,199 --> 00:03:57,020
打出了一套极其漂亮的组合拳

102
00:03:57,020 --> 00:03:58,719
你看乳制品这边

103
00:03:58,719 --> 00:04:00,750
他们可以说是快准狠

104
00:04:00,750 --> 00:04:03,849
趁着去年底价格合适的那个窗口期

105
00:04:03,849 --> 00:04:05,669
一把就锁定了成本

106
00:04:05,669 --> 00:04:06,830
再看食用油

107
00:04:06,830 --> 00:04:09,830
他们不但提前搞定了充足的对冲头寸

108
00:04:09,830 --> 00:04:12,519
而且还预判未来这块价格会掉

109
00:04:12,519 --> 00:04:15,878
等于说面对现在外面跌宕起伏的市场

110
00:04:15,878 --> 00:04:20,500
人家在自家门前稳稳当当地建起了一道防波堤

111
00:04:20,500 --> 00:04:24,759
正是因为这种极度自律的成本控制

112
00:04:24,759 --> 00:04:25,810
你猜怎么着

113
00:04:25,810 --> 00:04:27,670
在刚才咱们提到那么多

114
00:04:27,670 --> 00:04:30,269
花钱如水的新产能开支面前

115
00:04:30,269 --> 00:04:32,029
他们居然在一季度

116
00:04:32,029 --> 00:04:35,560
硬生生的把毛利率拉升了一个百分点

117
00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:39,000
这真的是属于刀刃上舔血抠出来的利润

118
00:04:39,000 --> 00:04:40,439
太难得了好了

119
00:04:40,439 --> 00:04:42,000
接下来的第四部分

120
00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:45,779
绝对是今天这期解读里最让人兴奋的亮点

121
00:04:45,779 --> 00:04:47,620
销售渠道的转变

122
00:04:47,620 --> 00:04:51,350
这简直就是一台正在启动的新增长引擎

123
00:04:51,350 --> 00:04:54,990
咱们对比看质量数据反差感

124
00:04:54,990 --> 00:04:57,069
简称拉满大型商超

125
00:04:57,069 --> 00:05:00,259
这边呢因为去年同期出了个大爆款

126
00:05:00,259 --> 00:05:01,779
基数实在太高

127
00:05:01,779 --> 00:05:04,740
所以今年一季度同比掉了个10%左右

128
00:05:04,740 --> 00:05:05,788
这很正常

129
00:05:05,788 --> 00:05:07,949
但是你往旁边看

130
00:05:07,949 --> 00:05:10,829
那些小型的区域性商超渠道

131
00:05:10,829 --> 00:05:12,189
直接卖疯了

132
00:05:12,189 --> 00:05:14,529
同比暴增超过58仙

133
00:05:14,529 --> 00:05:17,970
这扩张速度简直像坐了火箭一样

134
00:05:17,970 --> 00:05:20,279
更炸裂的还在后面

135
00:05:20,279 --> 00:05:24,180
这个正在狂飙突进的小型商超渠道

136
00:05:24,180 --> 00:05:28,259
你们猜他目前在总营收里占多大比重

137
00:05:28,259 --> 00:05:31,079
只有区区大约4%

138
00:05:31,079 --> 00:05:32,100
大家品一品

139
00:05:32,100 --> 00:05:33,129
这是什么概念

140
00:05:33,129 --> 00:05:33,889
这意味着

141
00:05:33,889 --> 00:05:38,569
这是一片几乎还没怎么被开垦过的汪洋大海啊

142
00:05:38,569 --> 00:05:40,810
他的天花板高得离谱

143
00:05:40,810 --> 00:05:43,269
发展潜力根本看不到头

144
00:05:43,269 --> 00:05:47,370
那为什么这些小超市突然就爆发了呢

145
00:05:47,370 --> 00:05:48,529
其实很简单

146
00:05:48,529 --> 00:05:49,860
你想象一下

147
00:05:49,860 --> 00:05:52,199
作为一个地方小超市的老板

148
00:05:52,199 --> 00:05:55,279
你是不是急需升级自己店里的面包区

149
00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:57,939
来吸引大妈大爷们进店逛逛

150
00:05:57,939 --> 00:06:00,959
但本地那些供货商要么质量不行

151
00:06:00,959 --> 00:06:02,300
要么款式太老

152
00:06:02,300 --> 00:06:03,269
这时候

153
00:06:03,269 --> 00:06:03,850
力高

154
00:06:03,850 --> 00:06:05,529
这种拥有全国性

155
00:06:05,529 --> 00:06:08,800
冷链和顶尖烘焙技术的巨头入场了

156
00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:11,079
直接给你提供一套已经验证过

157
00:06:11,079 --> 00:06:12,908
能卖爆的产品组合

158
00:06:12,908 --> 00:06:15,048
对本地小供货商来说

159
00:06:15,048 --> 00:06:17,028
绝对是降维打击

160
00:06:17,028 --> 00:06:17,869
当然了

161
00:06:17,869 --> 00:06:21,009
咱们也绝对不能忘了利高的老本行

162
00:06:21,009 --> 00:06:25,250
他们一半以上的收入还是靠那些传统的烘焙店

163
00:06:25,250 --> 00:06:26,490
好消息是

164
00:06:26,490 --> 00:06:29,250
经历了前边一阵子的需求起伏后

165
00:06:29,250 --> 00:06:30,470
这个传统渠道

166
00:06:30,470 --> 00:06:33,839
现在终于传出了筑底企稳的好消息

167
00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:35,459
老阵地稳稳住了

168
00:06:35,459 --> 00:06:37,000
新渠道又在狂飙

169
00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:39,678
这就是最完美的双轮驱动

170
00:06:39,678 --> 00:06:42,379
好的把前面这些碎片全拼起来

171
00:06:42,379 --> 00:06:44,098
咱们进入最后一部分

172
00:06:44,098 --> 00:06:46,579
看看调整后的前景展望

173
00:06:46,579 --> 00:06:48,579
来下个最终结论

174
00:06:48,579 --> 00:06:51,399
从这份评级历史的追踪图里

175
00:06:51,399 --> 00:06:54,660
我们能很清楚地看到分析师们的眼光

176
00:06:54,660 --> 00:06:57,720
其实早就越过这几个月的利润率缩水

177
00:06:57,720 --> 00:07:00,860
他们压根儿没被短期的账面数字吓到

178
00:07:00,860 --> 00:07:01,519
为啥

179
00:07:01,519 --> 00:07:04,660
因为他们盯着的是那些用来扩充产能

180
00:07:04,660 --> 00:07:06,509
拓展渠道的李子

181
00:07:06,509 --> 00:07:07,910
大家都心知肚明

182
00:07:07,910 --> 00:07:10,990
今天砸进厂房和渠道里的每一分钱

183
00:07:10,990 --> 00:07:14,769
明天都会变成拦住竞争对手的坚固城墙

184
00:07:14,769 --> 00:07:15,970
解读的最后啊

185
00:07:15,970 --> 00:07:18,600
咱们用管理层的这句话来收个尾吧

186
00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:22,199
随着26年下半年的收入慢忙起量

187
00:07:22,199 --> 00:07:26,250
前期投入会带来巨大的经营杠杆效应

188
00:07:26,250 --> 00:07:27,850
这话翻译成大白话

189
00:07:27,850 --> 00:07:29,930
就是厂子建好了

190
00:07:29,930 --> 00:07:31,250
人也招满了

191
00:07:31,250 --> 00:07:33,430
只要下半年的销量一跑起来

192
00:07:33,430 --> 00:07:35,379
把这些固定成本一摊薄

193
00:07:35,379 --> 00:07:37,519
那利润就跟开闸放水一样

194
00:07:37,519 --> 00:07:38,660
拦都拦不住

195
00:07:38,660 --> 00:07:41,089
这就回到我们最开始那个问题了

196
00:07:41,089 --> 00:07:43,350
当一家企业宁可顶住压力

197
00:07:43,350 --> 00:07:45,589
交出一份没那么好看的短期财报

198
00:07:45,589 --> 00:07:48,040
也要死死夯实未来的地基时

199
00:07:48,040 --> 00:07:50,740
你觉得市场暂时的悲观情绪

200
00:07:50,740 --> 00:07:52,600
到底是个需要躲避的雷区

201
00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:55,279
还是一个千载难逢的上车机会呢

共 1 条，按点赞数排序。

采集完成，该视频无弹幕