高盛-英伟达（NVDA）：台北国际电脑展GTC主题演讲要点解读-260601

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欢迎来到今天的深度解读

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说实话啊

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今天我们要拆解的这份材料绝对是重量级的

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我们要聊的是

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高盛在2026年6月刚刚发布的

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关于英伟达computer x主题演讲的深度报告

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大家如果一直有在盯科技圈和资本市场的话

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肯定知道现在的技术迭代有多疯狂

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当然这背后的资金盘子和赌注更是大的惊人

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35.0%

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各位请先记住这个数字

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这是高盛对英伟达股票给出的预期

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上涨空间非常惊人

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在我们今天这场硬核的探秘里

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他可绝对不是什么枯燥的财务指标啊

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他直接给咱们今天要聊的深科技话题

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定下了一个极具吸引力的基调

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好那咱们就直接切入正题

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高盛在报告里有这么一句核心论断

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他们说我们继续看到该股票在未来几个月

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面临积极的催化剂路径

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这正是咱们今天要重点验证的核心

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我们要一层一层剥开

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英伟达现在疯狂扩张的软硬件生态

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看看高盛嘴里的这个所谓的催化剂

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到底有多硬核

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咱们今天的内容主要分五块

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首先是高盛的最终判断

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接着看英伟达如何统治数据中心

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然后是AIPC革命

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再聊聊物理与智能体AI

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最后也是非常关键的

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盘点一下风险与回报好的

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第一部分

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高盛的最终判断跨越5.2万美元的鸿沟

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5.2万亿美元

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这可是高盛目前预测的英伟达市值

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我把这个宏观数字单独拎出来

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就是想让大家直观地感受到

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咱们今天面对的究竟是怎样

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一头全球级别的巨兽

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说真的

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他现在随便打个喷嚏

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整个市场都要抖三抖

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现在请大家注意看这组数据

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真正有意思的地方在哪呢

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是它的增长斜率

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你看看从2026年预计的4.52美元

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每股收益直接翻倍

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飙升到2027年的9.50美元

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然后到2028年

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更是达到了惊人的15.25美元

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这种可以说是爆炸式的营收预测

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刚好就是高盛感

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给出258美元目标价的最大底气

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咱们接着进入第二部分

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统治数据中心

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微软RUBINAI工厂

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高盛在报告里特别提到

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英伟达的WARUBIN平台正在进入全面生产阶段

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你看它的核心组件NVR72GPUVERA

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Cpu grog3 l p u

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再加上blue field存储和spectrum x网络

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朋友们

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这可早就不是单卖一块芯片那么简单了

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这是一个极其宏大的机架级AI工厂架构

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高盛预测得益于产能扩大

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从第三季度开始

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RUBIN平台将会迎来一条

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非常陡峭的收入增长曲线

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咱把这些硬核术语翻译成大白话

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在性能对决上

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专为智能体AI打造的V2GPU

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比传统X86系统性能足足提升了1.8倍

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但最不可思议的是什么

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是它的智能体吞吐量

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竟然达到了上一代BLACKWELL的十倍

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各位这个绝对不是什么挤牙膏式的参数升级

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这十倍的跃升

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就是把那些超大规模云服务商

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死死秒在英伟达生态里的终极护城河

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当然了

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光有顶级硬件还不行

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你还得知道怎么让它高效转起来

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所以英伟达重点强调了DSEI工厂参考平台

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就就好比他们不仅卖给你跑车

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还直接教你怎么把油耗降到最低

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怎么跑得最稳

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它能帮客户实现更快的上线时间

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优化功耗并确保最长的系统正常运行时间

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简而言之

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这就是一套帮你把数据中心高效管起来的

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交钥匙方案

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接下来看第三部分

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AIPC革命

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英伟达与微软瞄准windows

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所以最关键的点来了

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英伟达可不仅仅满足于称霸云端

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他们还搞出了RTX spark

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通过nv link技术

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把BLACKWELLRTXGPU和联发科联合研发的20核

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grace GPU绑在了一起

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说白了这就是一款瞄准高端AIPC的杀器

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专门为了在windows系统上把AI工作流

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优化到极致而诞生的

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要证明

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这绝对不是画大饼

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最好的证据就是看这个惊人的行业买单率

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你看这名单

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从华硕

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戴尔

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惠普到MICROSOFT自己

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你能叫得上名字的OEM巨头

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今年秋天都会推出搭载这个平台的设备

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这阵仗绝对是一次蓄谋已久

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全行业级别的大推流

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第四部分来了

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物理与智能体

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AI软件与机器人

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在软件这块

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英伟达针对企业级智能体

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发布了一整套全新工具包

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包括neo claw

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Neo tron

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Three outro open shell

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还有kua x agent skills

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说实在的

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英伟达弄出这些开箱即用的套件

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目的只有一个

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就是把开发门槛彻底打下来

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让大家能迅速上手

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推动智能体在全行业的真正落地

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而这恰恰绝妙地展现了英伟达

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对未来物理世界的巨大野心

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这三大平台做多模态推理的cosmos v

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三

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当自动驾驶大脑的O泡MEOVR

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还有首个人形机器人的开源参考设计

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真的从路上跑的汽车到地上走的人形机器人

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英伟达早就已经在为整个物理AI的未来铺路了

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最后第五部分也是很多人最关心的风险与回报

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通向285美元之路

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这里非常直观地展现了

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英伟达一路狂飙的历史势头

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高盛给出的这个285美元目标价

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背后的财务逻辑其实很清晰

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他们把预测的正常化

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每股收益直接乘以了30倍的市盈率成数

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也就是说

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正是咱们前面盘点的那一对硬核技术

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和深不可测的生态护城河

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才让高盛觉得这30倍的估值完全站得住脚

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不过客观来说

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咱们必须得领静看看这四大下行风险

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首先万一AI基础建设的投资热潮降温了呢

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其次如果对手发力

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导致英伟达的市场份额或利润率被蚕食呢

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还有最后那个老生常谈

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却又极其致命的供应链产能受限问题

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这四个点里的任何一个

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都有可能随时踩下这辆黄标列车的刹车

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所以这就引出了

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咱们今天最后想留给大家的一个问题

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站在30倍市盈率的这个高点上

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一边是全产业链的深度绑定

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一边是不能忽视的潜在风险

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你觉得英伟达这座万亿美元级别的AI工厂

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究竟是如今科技圈里最安全的赌注呢

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还是最拥挤

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容错率最低的一条赛道

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希望今天的解析能给大家带来一些新的启发

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感谢大家收看今天的深度解读

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咱们下次再见

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