【NaNa说美股】20260515疯牛口吐白沫了？

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是5月15号周五

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离开全球股市

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后脚就崩了

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宏观和资金面的双重因素引发了市场剧烈波动

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10年期美收益率

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今天一举突破了4.5%的红线

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直接拉响了全球风险资产的警报

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中东局势再度火上浇油

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据伊朗德黑兰时报报道

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美国拒绝了伊朗结束战争的是试点方案

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川普更是放话

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对伊朗的耐心正在耗尽

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与此同时

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以色列透露正在准备重启针对伊朗的军事行动

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可能会持续数天甚至数周

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现在就等川普的最终决定

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地缘政治冲突升级引发的通胀

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但又彻底粉碎了降息幻想

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全球债券收益率集体走高

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交易员现在已经基本排除了

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美联储年内降息的可能

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甚至开始压住加息

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再加上今天是5月的第三个星期五

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期权集中到期结算

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呃

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最近干嘛挤压就挤得很爽

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所有人都无脑冲这个看涨期权哈

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嗯结果就到了这个结算日

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刚好算上10年期美债收益率破4.5%

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那就像一个发令枪一样

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直接导致了一波获利了结潮

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美股在这场风暴中表现其实还算是坚挺

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三大股指跌幅有限

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但是韩国股市就没有这么幸运了

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直接跌到了熔断

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都说华人的赌性强

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我觉得韩国人才是哈

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因为国家的大盘每天涨跌都像过山车一样

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今天韩国交易所因为COSPP200期货暴跌

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6%

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触发了熔断

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两大擎天柱三星和SK海力士双双吃大面

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直接把全球半导体板块带进了沟里

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如今包括半导体

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数据中心

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电力基础设施在内的

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AI相关产业链

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已经占到了标普500指数权重的一半以上

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所以美股现在也彻底被AI行情的波动给裹挟了

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今天盘面上

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此前最火热的AI主线和半导体板块呢全线回调

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太空概念

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工业机械

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汽车等板块也都受到了通胀打压

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跌幅居前

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多数板块表现都疲软哈

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但是在一片红光中

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软件板块逆势大涨

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上演了逼空狂欢

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昨天视频里我们解释过

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软件板块的潜在空头挤压

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风险指标已经达到了百分之百的极致

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所以在资金轮动下出现了精准的定向爆破

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这种有涨有跌的局面

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说明大资金并没有慌不择路地逃离市场

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他们还在场内快速轮动

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但这并不意味着他们还在看多哈

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而是因为大资金调仓呢需要时间

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目前多空双方都在试探彼此的底线

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多头舍不得彻底离场

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暂时抛售了涨幅巨大

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拥挤度过高的AI半导体

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在跌无可跌的软件股里面

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去寻找最后的防御避风港

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而空投呢正在观察通胀数据

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标普500指数今天从7500点高位回落

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收盘跌破了5日均线

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但守住了10日均线

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QQ日线走势雷同

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虽然这一轮脉冲式上涨不可能一直持续嘛

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但是多头呢今天仍展现了极强的抵抗力哈

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呃这个指数下跌回踩上升趋势线后

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再次被拉起来

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暂时保住了这个多头的强势结构

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不过美股市场

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现在已经处于一个极度脆弱的临界点

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纳值100与10年期美债收益率

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反向指标之间的背离呢

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已经达到了非常危险的程度

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呃

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美银分析师michael hits赶紧出来放马后炮

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称

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最近半导体价格较其200日均线

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高出了62%

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偏离度太大

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需要均值回归

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哎之前这板块狂热暴涨的时候

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什么偏离不偏离的

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根本没人在乎哈

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现在一跌

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大家就装的好像才刚发现这个问题一样

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三倍做多半导TTFSOXL

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今天的重挫近12%

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不过比起4月出了低点

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它依然还有三倍的涨幅

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利润垫呢还很厚

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展望后市嗯

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结合这个美股的季节性规律哈

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5月中下寻本来就是进入阶段性疲软

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频繁震荡和调整的转折点

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这个美股往往都会迎来阶段性的下跌

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更何况这个本轮war舍上任哈

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他所处的这个市场环境

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通胀数据就很高

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所以虽然QQ目前还站在这条上升趋势线上

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但是随着formal情绪消退

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市场回归理性

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跌破这条趋势线

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估计就只是未来几天的事情

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可能下周就要跌破了

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这5月中下旬哈

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这波动都可能会比较大

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真正的转机呢可能要等到6月份

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最新消息透露

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SPACEX最早将于6月11号确定IPO价格

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股票将于6月12号上市

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在这个巨无霸上市之前

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主力怎么也得把大盘的底裤给兜住啊

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因此QQ在短线回调哈

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跌破这条趋势线之后呢

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这个后面大概率会转为震荡模式哈

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等待SPACEX上市来冲洗美债

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收益率与美元的双双走强

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进一步打压了贵金属价格

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现货黄金走低

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高利率环境是黄金天然的克星

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持有无息资产黄金的机会成本上升

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以美元计价的黄金对于海外买家而言更加昂贵

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所以黄金只能选择低头

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现货白银更是跳空大跌

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创下自2月12号以来最大单日跌幅

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前几天

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因为资金疯狂炒作

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AI数据中心

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供电布线和冷却所需的工业金属热情

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加上主要生产国秘鲁的染料供应问题

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白银呢一度回暖

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今天潮水退去

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银价直接一脚跌回到了半年线附近

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这条均线在最近两个月

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一直扮演了重要的技术支撑角色

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所以接下来就看他能不能够撑得住呃

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昨天我们看了black rock的13F报告

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那今天我们就来看看美股划线之神

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川普台面下的动作

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据NBC和美国政府道德办公室

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公布的最新两份财务披露文件下

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是

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川普呢在今年第一季度

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足足进行了3642笔股票交易

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平均每个交易日狂刷60笔

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量化基金都没他们啊

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文件显示

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它的投资组合较2026年早些时候

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以债券为主的保守布局呢

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出现了明显的激进化转向

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涉及多家美国大型公司股票交易

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累计价值介于2.2亿到27.500000000美元之间

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呃仔细看他的调仓名单

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单笔在100万到500万美元的大额买入标的呢

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包括标普500指数基金英伟达和苹果

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而单笔在500万到

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2500万美元的大额卖出标的则包括微软

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亚马逊和meta

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最绝的是

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他的投资组合完全是在精准的吃政策红利

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比如买入英伟达

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普通AAMD等半导体公司

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配合白宫推动芯片产能的努力

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买入摩根大通

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高盛和visa

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这里的金融股呢完美重叠

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美国政府2026年放松金融监管的立场

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狂买CNBZ沃宾hood和SOFI

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正值白宫密集出台清加密货币政策

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建立联邦比特币储备的窗口期

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更巧的是哈政府推出的川普账户退休计划

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最初的受托人偏偏就是罗宾户的

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最具争议的呢就是戴尔科技了哈

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因为披露显示

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从2月10号开始

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川普的投资组合就持续以七位数金额吸筹

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戴尔股票

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到了5月8号

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川普突然在白宫公开称赞戴尔

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当天戴尔科技股价应声暴涨了12%

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川普的仓位呢也直接赚到飞起

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虽然批评人士跳脚质疑这里面存在的利益冲突

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但是白宫辩称这完全符合股票法

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其实吧唉大家都心知肚明

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这还只是明面上的哈

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实际上

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他那几个儿子在币圈和原有市场上早就赚翻了

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后有共和党的白宫股神川普

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只能说这事儿吧

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无论古今中外

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太阳底下都没有新鲜事儿

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水至清则无鱼嘛

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捞就捞吧

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这个靠操纵市场

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在华尔街老的眼前呃

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总比摊掉老百姓的养老金

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或者天天给非洲兄弟们免债

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00:09:27,239 --> 00:09:28,919
私下拿回扣强哈

217
00:09:28,919 --> 00:09:31,139
其他个股方面简单说几句

218
00:09:31,139 --> 00:09:34,940
设计软件公司FIGMA股价呢季后大涨超白13

219
00:09:34,940 --> 00:09:37,759
公司Q1营收同比增长46%

220
00:09:37,759 --> 00:09:42,789
超市残余期连续第二个季度实现营收增速加快

221
00:09:42,789 --> 00:09:46,370
但是由于AI相关投资以及员工成本

222
00:09:46,370 --> 00:09:48,309
导致毛利率从91%

223
00:09:48,309 --> 00:09:49,799
下降到了79%

224
00:09:49,799 --> 00:09:52,080
这导致季度由盈转亏了

225
00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:54,190
净亏损1.42亿美元

226
00:09:54,190 --> 00:09:56,110
调整后每股收益为十美分

227
00:09:56,110 --> 00:09:57,710
超出预期的六美分

228
00:09:57,710 --> 00:10:00,110
公司呢上调了全年营收指引

229
00:10:00,110 --> 00:10:01,889
这份财报公布之后

230
00:10:01,889 --> 00:10:05,149
华尔街分析师们是一边起立鼓掌

231
00:10:05,149 --> 00:10:09,299
夸赞这个公司的AI功能付费转化情况

232
00:10:09,299 --> 00:10:13,159
一边呢却又纷纷下调了对该股的目标股价

233
00:10:13,159 --> 00:10:15,360
今天我觉得它股价大涨

234
00:10:15,360 --> 00:10:17,779
主要还是有空头回补所推动的哈

235
00:10:17,779 --> 00:10:21,500
所以尽管公司前景依然存在很大的不确定性

236
00:10:21,500 --> 00:10:24,730
但是呢流动性决定了股价的短期走向

237
00:10:24,730 --> 00:10:26,830
微软今天也大涨3%

238
00:10:26,830 --> 00:10:28,590
比法克曼力挺微软

239
00:10:28,590 --> 00:10:32,289
称市场的担忧纯属多余呃

240
00:10:32,289 --> 00:10:36,960
并且呢宣布潘兴广场自今年2月以来不建仓了

241
00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:39,399
微软现在已经完成了对微软的新建仓

242
00:10:39,399 --> 00:10:41,818
并且呢将其列为核心持仓

243
00:10:41,818 --> 00:10:45,909
微软股价年内仍累计下跌12.5%

244
00:10:45,909 --> 00:10:49,950
市场对它的AI助手call pilot的采纳进度

245
00:10:49,950 --> 00:10:52,659
以及它的核心365业务呃

246
00:10:52,659 --> 00:10:55,000
能否抵御竞争对手的冲击

247
00:10:55,000 --> 00:10:56,769
仍存在较大的疑虑

248
00:10:56,769 --> 00:10:57,409
此外呢

249
00:10:57,409 --> 00:11:01,210
微软在数据中心扩容方面也面临着一些瓶颈

250
00:11:01,210 --> 00:11:04,799
难以完全满足云服务的快速增长需求

251
00:11:04,799 --> 00:11:09,370
虽然吧我也认为哈是市场对微软的呃

252
00:11:09,370 --> 00:11:10,970
以上所谓的那些担忧啊

253
00:11:10,970 --> 00:11:13,399
都只是杀股价的借口

254
00:11:13,399 --> 00:11:16,559
实际上这公司基本面稳得一批是吧

255
00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:17,620
业务多元化

256
00:11:17,620 --> 00:11:19,220
云业务增速强劲

257
00:11:19,220 --> 00:11:20,860
企业客户粘性强

258
00:11:20,860 --> 00:11:22,409
护城河非常深

259
00:11:22,409 --> 00:11:25,409
但是呢对于BICKMAN的做法

260
00:11:25,409 --> 00:11:27,169
我也是有点想翻白眼

261
00:11:27,169 --> 00:11:31,649
这摆明了是他吸筹吸够了之后再向咱们推荐

262
00:11:31,649 --> 00:11:33,730
等着咱们给他抬轿子呢

263
00:11:33,730 --> 00:11:35,929
嗯今天微软股价大涨

264
00:11:35,929 --> 00:11:37,649
一方面当然有bio come on

265
00:11:37,649 --> 00:11:38,610
差多的原因哈

266
00:11:38,610 --> 00:11:41,009
但更主要的原因还是和呃

267
00:11:41,009 --> 00:11:44,289
我们前面说的资金额做高低切换流

268
00:11:44,289 --> 00:11:46,450
如软件板块有关行

269
00:11:46,450 --> 00:11:48,470
今天我们就简单说到这里哈

270
00:11:48,470 --> 00:11:51,789
那接下来两周我们就减少操作呃

271
00:11:51,789 --> 00:11:53,210
多观望市场

272
00:11:53,210 --> 00:11:57,809
先听听water这个新官上任放哪三把火再说

273
00:11:57,809 --> 00:11:59,360
那我们下周见拜拜

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