BV11rGy6KEzp · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:00,540 各位好 2 00:00:00,540 --> 00:00:03,200 今天我们要聊点非常重磅的东西 3 00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:04,759 我们直接切入正题 4 00:00:04,759 --> 00:00:07,160 来看看瑞银刚刚发布的一份 5 00:00:07,160 --> 00:00:10,449 说实话真的是让人惊掉下巴的财务报告 6 00:00:10,449 --> 00:00:13,130 这份报告不仅是几组数据那么简单 7 00:00:13,130 --> 00:00:14,570 它实际上揭示了 8 00:00:14,570 --> 00:00:16,129 人工智能硬件市场 9 00:00:16,129 --> 00:00:19,820 正在经历一场彻底的不可逆转的结构性巨变 10 00:00:19,820 --> 00:00:21,129 你猜怎么着 11 00:00:21,129 --> 00:00:23,629 1625美元 12 00:00:23,629 --> 00:00:25,109 对你没听错 13 00:00:25,109 --> 00:00:29,570 这是瑞银刚刚给美光科技设定的全新目标价 14 00:00:29,570 --> 00:00:33,170 要知道他们之前给的可是535美元啊 15 00:00:33,170 --> 00:00:35,479 这差不多是直接翻了三倍呀 16 00:00:35,479 --> 00:00:36,960 这种幅度的上调 17 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:39,619 说实话在圈子里真的不常见 18 00:00:39,619 --> 00:00:43,340 但真正让人倒吸一口凉气的还在后头 19 00:00:43,340 --> 00:00:44,960 瑞银在报告里预测 20 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:46,439 一直到2029年 21 00:00:46,439 --> 00:00:47,759 美光的每股收益 22 00:00:47,759 --> 00:00:50,569 都能轻轻松松地保持在100美元以上 23 00:00:50,569 --> 00:00:52,149 而且在这期间 24 00:00:52,149 --> 00:00:53,649 美光预计能创造出 25 00:00:53,649 --> 00:00:56,179 超过4000亿美元的自有现金流 26 00:00:56,179 --> 00:00:57,500 4000亿呀 27 00:00:57,500 --> 00:00:58,140 朋友们 28 00:00:58,140 --> 00:01:01,119 这可是一个非常不可思议的长线现金时 29 00:01:01,119 --> 00:01:02,890 那么问题就来了 30 00:01:02,890 --> 00:01:06,069 稍微了解半导体圈子的人都知道 31 00:01:06,069 --> 00:01:07,049 储存芯片 32 00:01:07,049 --> 00:01:07,810 这个市场 33 00:01:07,810 --> 00:01:12,000 向来是以暴涨暴跌的过山车行情组成的 34 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:14,379 在这么一个剧烈波动的市场里 35 00:01:14,379 --> 00:01:16,040 美光怎么可能做到 36 00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:18,709 这种天文数字般的持续增长呢 37 00:01:18,709 --> 00:01:20,629 要搞清楚背后的逻辑 38 00:01:20,629 --> 00:01:22,689 咱们得稍微切换一下视角 39 00:01:22,689 --> 00:01:26,459 像侦探一样穿透当下AI炒作的迷雾 40 00:01:26,459 --> 00:01:30,299 去看看那些科技巨头们在买芯片的方式上 41 00:01:30,299 --> 00:01:32,948 到底发生了什么根本性的重构 42 00:01:32,948 --> 00:01:37,448 其实推动美光这次凭借一路狂飙的秘密武器 43 00:01:37,448 --> 00:01:40,879 是一个叫做增强型长期协议的东西 44 00:01:40,879 --> 00:01:44,219 业内平时都管他叫enhanced LT a 45 00:01:44,219 --> 00:01:47,769 这玩意儿简直是个游戏规则改变者 46 00:01:47,769 --> 00:01:49,689 它是一种全新的合同 47 00:01:49,689 --> 00:01:51,689 通常跨度能用三到5年 48 00:01:51,689 --> 00:01:53,329 不仅锁定了采购量 49 00:01:53,329 --> 00:01:55,209 还敲定了部分价格框架 50 00:01:55,209 --> 00:01:56,989 他现在正以燎原之势 51 00:01:56,989 --> 00:01:59,409 迅速取代过去那种只谈数量 52 00:01:59,409 --> 00:02:01,299 不锁价格的短期买卖 53 00:02:01,299 --> 00:02:03,239 我们打个接地气的比方吧 54 00:02:03,239 --> 00:02:04,859 就拿租房来说 55 00:02:04,859 --> 00:02:08,280 以前那种传统的基于数量的存储市场 56 00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:12,219 其实就像是那种风险很高的按月短租 57 00:02:12,219 --> 00:02:13,560 价格天天变 58 00:02:13,560 --> 00:02:14,520 随行就市 59 00:02:14,520 --> 00:02:15,780 特别没底儿 60 00:02:15,780 --> 00:02:19,229 但是现在这个新的增强型LTA呢 61 00:02:19,229 --> 00:02:22,110 它就像是你签下了一份安全踏实 62 00:02:22,110 --> 00:02:23,430 一签就是5年 63 00:02:23,430 --> 00:02:25,759 而且租金固定不变的商业合同 64 00:02:25,759 --> 00:02:27,139 在这个新规矩下 65 00:02:27,139 --> 00:02:29,360 以前那种让人摸不着头脑的需求 66 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:32,050 直接变成了长期稳当的现金流 67 00:02:32,050 --> 00:02:34,789 最有意思的其实是这个转变的规模 68 00:02:34,789 --> 00:02:36,090 你能想象吗 69 00:02:36,090 --> 00:02:37,469 到了2027年 70 00:02:37,469 --> 00:02:39,689 全行业大概有30帕 71 00:02:39,689 --> 00:02:42,229 将近13的DDDR内存出货量 72 00:02:42,229 --> 00:02:45,879 都会被这种好几年的价格锚点给死死锁定 73 00:02:45,879 --> 00:02:48,180 这可是个天文数字的量级 74 00:02:48,180 --> 00:02:50,939 这就好比供需双方都退了一步 75 00:02:50,939 --> 00:02:52,800 用眼前的一点点小利 76 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:56,849 换取了未来几年极高的大规模的业务确定性 77 00:02:56,849 --> 00:02:59,289 这笔账算得不可谓不精 78 00:02:59,289 --> 00:03:00,449 听到这儿 79 00:03:00,449 --> 00:03:02,729 你可能要在心里打个问号了 80 00:03:02,729 --> 00:03:03,710 像微软 81 00:03:03,710 --> 00:03:05,490 谷歌或者亚马逊这些 82 00:03:05,490 --> 00:03:08,610 聪明绝顶的超大规模云计算巨头 83 00:03:08,610 --> 00:03:09,979 他们图什么呀 84 00:03:09,979 --> 00:03:12,659 他们为什么会心甘情愿地放弃 85 00:03:12,659 --> 00:03:14,360 在行业低谷期去压价 86 00:03:14,360 --> 00:03:15,909 去占便宜的机会呢 87 00:03:15,909 --> 00:03:18,789 把自己和一个固定的长期价格绑在一起 88 00:03:18,789 --> 00:03:20,430 对他们有什么好处 89 00:03:20,430 --> 00:03:23,519 简单来说就是两个字儿焦虑 90 00:03:23,519 --> 00:03:25,610 绝对的算力焦虑 91 00:03:25,610 --> 00:03:26,990 这些云计算巨头 92 00:03:26,990 --> 00:03:30,210 现在对AI硬件的需求实在是太饥渴了 93 00:03:30,210 --> 00:03:34,620 以至于他们完全愿意把手中的定价筹码交出去 94 00:03:34,620 --> 00:03:36,930 就为了换一张免死金牌 95 00:03:36,930 --> 00:03:40,800 那就是保证他们在部署那些最关键的AI硬件时 96 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:44,560 绝对绝对不能遇到内存断供的尴尬局面 97 00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:47,000 说白了花钱买个踏实 98 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:49,340 你看这组瑞银书里的数据 99 00:03:49,340 --> 00:03:52,479 真的是把美光这次接住的泼天富贵 100 00:03:52,479 --> 00:03:54,199 展现的淋漓尽致 101 00:03:54,199 --> 00:03:56,060 你可以非常直观地看到 102 00:03:56,060 --> 00:03:59,340 随着这些保障性合同真正落地生效 103 00:03:59,340 --> 00:04:02,469 从2026财年一直到2028财年 104 00:04:02,469 --> 00:04:06,150 美光的营收和利润预期简直是原地起飞 105 00:04:06,150 --> 00:04:08,389 出现了爆炸式的向上修正 106 00:04:08,389 --> 00:04:11,629 注意这不是什么按部就班的线性增长 107 00:04:11,629 --> 00:04:13,949 这完全是基本面在重塑 108 00:04:13,949 --> 00:04:17,209 好让我们进入下一部分行业新引擎 109 00:04:17,209 --> 00:04:18,550 高带宽内存 110 00:04:18,550 --> 00:04:20,610 也就是我们常说的HBM 111 00:04:20,610 --> 00:04:23,649 现在市场对AI芯片的需求到底有多猛 112 00:04:23,649 --> 00:04:24,529 这么说吧 113 00:04:24,529 --> 00:04:27,759 瑞银不得不赶紧去修改了他们的财务模型 114 00:04:27,759 --> 00:04:30,519 把美光HBM的平均售价同比增幅 115 00:04:30,519 --> 00:04:32,800 预期直接从之前的35% 116 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:34,798 狠狠的上调到了50% 117 00:04:34,798 --> 00:04:36,699 这可以说是相当惊人了 118 00:04:36,699 --> 00:04:39,519 那为什么能卖出这么高的溢价呢 119 00:04:39,519 --> 00:04:40,999 其实原因很简单 120 00:04:40,999 --> 00:04:42,480 粗暴缺货 121 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:45,240 整个储存市场在未来好几年里 122 00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:48,350 都会处于一种严重供不应求的状态 123 00:04:48,350 --> 00:04:50,170 你看DRM的短缺 124 00:04:50,170 --> 00:04:52,569 起码要持续到2028年的第二季度 125 00:04:52,569 --> 00:04:55,500 NAND也要一直缺到2027年年底 126 00:04:55,500 --> 00:04:57,939 这种可以说是史无前例的长周期 127 00:04:57,939 --> 00:04:58,779 卖方市场 128 00:04:58,779 --> 00:05:01,920 简直是把巨大的定价权直接塞到了美光 129 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:03,160 这些供应商的手里 130 00:05:03,160 --> 00:05:06,019 让他们能够毫无悬念地把这笔丰厚的溢价 131 00:05:06,019 --> 00:05:07,949 一直赚到2027年 132 00:05:12,230 --> 00:05:14,889 一个更加平稳的财务未来 133 00:05:14,889 --> 00:05:16,870 瑞银的数据显示 134 00:05:16,870 --> 00:05:19,209 由于有那么多的出货量和价格 135 00:05:19,209 --> 00:05:22,220 已经被前面的LTA协议给焊死了 136 00:05:22,220 --> 00:05:26,610 整个存储市场那种从山峰直接跌到谷底的价格 137 00:05:26,610 --> 00:05:28,529 波动幅度将被大幅削减 138 00:05:28,529 --> 00:05:30,110 大概50%左右 139 00:05:30,110 --> 00:05:30,829 朋友们 140 00:05:30,829 --> 00:05:32,428 这可不是小修小补 141 00:05:32,428 --> 00:05:35,788 这是整个行业格局的彻底质变呐 142 00:05:35,788 --> 00:05:38,369 这种质变到底意味着什么呢 143 00:05:38,369 --> 00:05:39,980 咱们做个压力测试 144 00:05:39,980 --> 00:05:41,839 就算到了2029年 145 00:05:41,839 --> 00:05:45,500 行业真的无可避免地撞上了一次温和的储存期 146 00:05:45,500 --> 00:05:46,399 下行周期 147 00:05:46,399 --> 00:05:50,220 因为有那些新协议作为固定价格的定海神针 148 00:05:50,220 --> 00:05:51,600 美光的每股收益 149 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:54,658 照样能稳如泰山地站在100美元以上 150 00:05:54,658 --> 00:05:57,158 也就是说那种动辄利润腰斩 151 00:05:57,158 --> 00:05:59,598 哀鸿遍野的日子一去不复返了 152 00:05:59,598 --> 00:06:02,908 取而代之的是一条极其稳健的业绩底线 153 00:06:02,908 --> 00:06:06,228 瑞银在报告里的这句话真的是一针见血 154 00:06:06,228 --> 00:06:10,740 他们认为正是因为这种暴涨暴跌被彻底消除了 155 00:06:10,740 --> 00:06:13,459 美光就不应该再被资本市场当成一个 156 00:06:13,459 --> 00:06:16,579 靠天吃饭的纯周期性存储公司来估值了 157 00:06:16,579 --> 00:06:18,560 相反大家得转变观念 158 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:22,600 得用看待英伟达那种顶级AI半导体巨头的眼光 159 00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:23,399 来看待它 160 00:06:23,399 --> 00:06:26,259 给它更高也更稳定的估值倍速 161 00:06:26,259 --> 00:06:30,060 在咱们今天这期深入分析接近尾声的时候 162 00:06:30,060 --> 00:06:32,939 我想抛给大家一个非常有意思的问题 163 00:06:32,939 --> 00:06:34,009 去琢磨琢磨 164 00:06:34,009 --> 00:06:34,649 你看 165 00:06:34,649 --> 00:06:38,220 如果说人工智能这个庞大的需求已经强大到 166 00:06:38,220 --> 00:06:41,079 能够彻底改写存储市场的游戏规则 167 00:06:41,079 --> 00:06:44,319 甚至抹平了这个行业几十年的周期性波动 168 00:06:44,319 --> 00:06:48,579 那么在现在整个错综复杂的科技硬件供应链里 169 00:06:48,579 --> 00:06:52,149 还有哪些曾经也是大起大落的淋雨 170 00:06:52,149 --> 00:06:53,889 正站在风口浪尖上 171 00:06:53,889 --> 00:06:57,810 准备迎接这种一模一样的永久性的进化呢 172 00:06:57,810 --> 00:06:59,329 好了感谢大家的陪伴 173 00:06:59,329 --> 00:07:01,300 我们下次分析再见
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