高盛-中国光伏行业：盈利拐点追踪（2026年5月）：主产业链价格企稳，库存高企与生产成本下行仍存下行风险-260526

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大家好

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欢迎来到今天的图解分析

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今天我们要聊点硬核的

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高盛

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在2026年5月刚刚发布的一份重磅研报

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将我们一起深挖

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中国光伏行业正在经历的这场

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可以说是剧烈的大变局

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这份报告的信息量极大

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从宏观市场的巨大震荡

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一直穿透到行业的盈利拐点

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绝对干货满满

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准备好了吗

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咱们直接进入正题

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我们今天的分析框架非常精细

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一共分五步走

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先看看全球需求的宏观冲击

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接着李经光伏价值链的最新定价

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然后对比一下组件和玻璃

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这冰火两重天的盈利现状

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当然还会聊聊

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那些挥之不去的下行风险

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最后我们会把这些全部转化成

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实实在在的投资者策略指南好

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那我们先从最顶层的宏观环境看起

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第一部分全球需求冲击负的58%

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各位第一眼看到这个数字的时候

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我确实稍微愣了一下

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这是2026年4月份

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全球光伏组件需求同比暴跌的幅度

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也就是说单单在这一个月里

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总需求量直接腰斩

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还不止

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缩水到了区区33G瓦

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这可不是什么小幅调整

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这是彻头彻尾的断崖式下跌

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而且啊如果你把时间线拉长一点

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看整体趋势情况也没好到哪儿去

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在2026年的前四个月里

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全球整体需求同比下滑了整整38

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线

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掉到了156G瓦

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这个数据呢

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可以说是彻底偏离了市场最初的基准预测

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说实话

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整个市场的寒气真的是扑面而来

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那么问局就来了

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好端端的全球大盘为什么会崩的这么厉害

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核心的症结其实就在这里

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中国本土的光伏装机量

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在4月份出现了极其惊人的

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79帕的同比暴跌

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仅仅装了9.5G瓦

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大家要知道

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中国可是全球最大的光伏市场啊

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这个体量的主力军

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一旦需求急速萎缩

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那是绝对会直接把全球大盘给拖垮的

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了解了宏观的冲击

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接下来进入我们的第二部分

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光伏价值链的定价

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看看这种需求暴跌是怎么传导到价格上的

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扫一眼这个最新的定价矩阵

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你可能会觉得咦

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好像本月竹产宴的价格看着还挺平稳的嘛

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但其实这只是一种表象

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底下可以说是暗流涌动

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实际上市场的交易量极其疲软

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这就好比看着是一片平静的湖面

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底下却是一潭死水

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大家都不怎么动弹

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整个主件订单的可见度也是非常非常低的

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真正值得我们警惕的

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其实是细分领域的快速失却

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光伏玻璃和胶膜的价格正在迅速往下滑

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本月分别跌了7%和六

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为什么会跌

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推手就是那越堆越高的库存

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库存天数环比又增加了8%

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现在已经达到了惊人的57天

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想象一下产品堆在仓库里快两个月卖不出去

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价格能撑得住吗

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再加上全球油价下跌

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更是给了焦膜价格当头一棒

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那么价格停滞加上库存高企

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对企业的账本到底意味着什么

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这就引出了我们的第三部分

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组件与玻璃的盈利大比拼

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在这里我们看到了一幅极其魔幻的

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冰火两重天的分化景象

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一边是赢家

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组建制造商

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虽然大环境不好

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但因为上游买材料便宜了

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他们的现金

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毛利率反而逆势上涨了两个百分点

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真金白银的把更多钱捂在了自己口袋里

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但另一边输家光伏玻璃制造商可就惨了

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产品降价

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导致他们的利润率简直可以说是大崩溃

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直接断崖式暴跌了十个百分点

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所有的硬指标都在印证这个残酷的现实

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这份基于现货价格的隐含现金盈利矩阵

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把行业的底裤都扒得一干二净

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他清清楚楚的告诉我们

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整个价值链上的利润

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在这个过程中

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到底谁在痛苦的流血

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谁又在悄悄的吸筹

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可以说是看得一清二楚

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在我们讨论接下来该买什么之前

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还得先来面对现实

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第四部分

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让我们看看那些依然盘旋在头顶

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挥之不去的下行风险

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整个市场的定价风险依然像块大石头一样

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压在上面

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主要有三个定时炸弹

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第16月份

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多晶硅的供应量很可能还要继续往上走

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第二上游整体价格还在不停地发软

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第三个更狠

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那些一线大厂为了活下去

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可能会开始采用更廉价的金属替代技术

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来疯狂压缩成本

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这三套组合拳打下来

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原本就已经无比脆弱的上游供需平衡

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真的是岌岌可危了

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那么最核心的问题来了

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既然全球需求在缩水

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部分环节的利润在崩盘

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地平线上还飘着一堆乌云

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作为关注这个赛道的我们来说

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到底该怎么操作

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真正的破局之道又在哪里呢

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这就来到了我们今天最重磅的压轴环节

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第五部分

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高盛给出的投资者策略指南

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咱们把宏观数据落地到具体的行动上

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分析师们在这里其实给出了非常明确的战术吧

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大家可以看到他们果断地给了麦维股份

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福斯特以及隆基绿能这三家公司买入的评级

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因为这几家手里都有自己独特的底盘和催化剂

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相反对于那些处于多晶硅和玻璃环节的企业

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高盛的态度可谓是相当冷酷

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直接给出了谨慎

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甚至明确是卖出的评级

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细看这个买入逻辑其实特别清晰

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就两手抓

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一手抓什么呢

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抓转型和增量

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比如卖为股份

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人家能跨界去抓新的应用场景

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另一手抓什么

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抓防守反击

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像福斯特和隆基绿能

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他们非常聪明地利用了上游材料

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降价的这个红利

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不仅死死守住了自己的底线利润

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甚至还能借机把自己的吸水折旧摊销前利润

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也就是EBIDA给做大

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这就是硬实力

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反过来看

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在这个节骨眼儿上

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避险的策略绝对比进攻更重要

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一句话

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千万要避开那些正在大出血的利润陷阱

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逻辑极其简单粗暴

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像弗莱特这种深陷光伏玻璃利润恶化泥潭的

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能躲多远躲多远

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同时对于像大全新能源

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通威股份这类当前极其脆弱的多晶硅大厂

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保持高度的警惕

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中立观望

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或者干脆暂时绕道走好了

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在今天的分析

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最后

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我想把这个极其关键

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甚至有点扎心的问题抛给大家留作思考

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长达57天的夸张库存

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在这个随时可能变脸的市场里

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到底还能硬撑多久

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要知道

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在市场那只看不见的手

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被迫进行极其残酷的自我出清之前

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只要这堆库存还在继续往上爬

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下一次重大的市场风暴

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可以说就已经在敲门了

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大家务必保持敏锐

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感谢大家收看今天的图解分析

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我们下期不见不散

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