【NaNa说美股】20260414要货不要钱！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股今天是4月14号

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周二美姨重返谈判

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市场风险偏好高涨

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底价盘前公布的PPI数据全面低于预期

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直接给市场达到一针强心剂

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美股三大股指呢集体高开高走

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几乎收在全天最高点

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多头简直强到逆天啊

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油价这边继续大幅回落

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现在的美伊双方博弈不是要不要打

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而是怎么谈

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美军集结封锁海峡

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本质上仍然是为了将伊朗逼回谈判桌

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而不是为了全面开战做准备

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川普今天告诉纽约邮报

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与伊朗可能未来两天内在巴基斯坦重启会谈

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另外巴基斯坦也呼吁

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美伊将停火期至少延长45天

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双方都不想打持久战

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哈伊朗呢扛不住国内的经济压力

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美国也不愿意陷入消耗战

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双方嘴炮无论怎么强硬

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其实都是为了提高自己的筹码

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来争取更有利的谈判条件而已

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与此同时

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以色列和黎巴嫩政府代表在华盛顿会谈间结束

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据美国官员透露

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双方已经达成了共识

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真主党应当彻底解除武装

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并且呢不应再允许伊朗左右黎巴嫩的未来

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黎巴嫩政府也明确表态

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不会再让真主党在政府占主导地位

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朋友们

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这中东大和平时代要来了哈

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不管你们信不信

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反正股市已经信了

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原有价格的剧烈逆价差呢也支持了这种观点

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近期合约价格大幅高于远期合约价格

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表明市场一致预期战争风险已经见顶

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随着冲突解决

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有价的战争溢价呢会逐步的消退

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即使修复海湾国家因为战争所造成的破坏

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并且重建石油储备仍需数年时间

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嗯即使海峡现在仍然封锁着

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但只要这个逻辑成立

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那风险资产产就有继续修复的空间

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因为市场看的是未来

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不是现在

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今天公布的PPI数据全面低于市场预期啊

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进一步强化了这些趋势

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具体数据显示

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美国3月PPI同比上涨4%

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为2023年2月以来最高水平

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但是呢显著低于市场预期的4.6%

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环比上涨0.5%

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同样大幅低于预期的1.2%

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和前者0.7%

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更重要的是

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剔除食品和能源的核心PPI和表现呢同样温和

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3月和新PPI环比只上涨0.1%

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这要远低于预期

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与前值0.5%

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同比上涨3.8%

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较前值3.9%小幅回落

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这组数据嗯释放了一个非常重要的信号

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虽然油价在涨

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但是并没有有效传导到更广泛的生产成本中嗯

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这把此前对油价上涨导致通胀失控

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导致美联储可能要加息或者推迟降息

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的空头叙事逻辑呢直接就被证伪了

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通胀压力没有想象中那么严重

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企业成本反而被压住了

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这对于美股和企业利润来说

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是实打实的基本面利好呀

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当然了

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很多朋友肯定会说

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这些数据都是做出来的

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要什么没有啊

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呃这个咱们也没有证据啊

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说明这些数据是假造的哈

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所以呢那那只能够当做真的来看待了

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所以美股这一波大涨的底层逻辑

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不仅仅只是空气和情绪而已

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还是有一定基本面支撑的

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高盛在此连夜撕报告

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前段时间还在高喊油价200美元

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通胀爆炸呢

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现在又改口说

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这次不是2022年通胀重演

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年内还有两次降息空间嗯

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随着通胀预期缓和

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降息预期又开始修复了哈

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之前所有基于恐慌的溢价迅速消退

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美元就重新走弱了

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德银已经开始提示

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可以关注美元走弱的交易逻辑

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因为之前美元的强势

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很大一部分是来自避险需求

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美国是全球最大的石油生产国

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资也对美元呢构成了支撑

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现在资金重新开始去追逐那些风险收益

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不要现金了

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这一点在币圈体现的非常的直接

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比特币价格再次逼近7万5000美元

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本质上就是全球流动性和风险偏好的集中体现

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当市场不再恐惧高利率

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资金就会涌向这种高波动动高弹性的资产

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自2月末伊朗冲突以来呢

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比特币累计上涨了大约13%

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明显跑赢标普500合黄金期权看跌压力减弱

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投资者对下行保护需求下降

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资金流入持续增加

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而美股这一边

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纳指100已经连续第十天上涨了哈

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远高于2月底冲突爆发前的水平

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标普500指数呢也一样

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修复的速度几乎和下跌一样快

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一路冲刺

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把所有压力位都给碾压过去了

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空投已经全军覆没

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底下MACD的绿柱持续扩大

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多头动能不仅没有衰减

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还在加速

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快慢线张口极大

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说明主动型买盘正在接管市场

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不仅仅只是空头噶空而已了哈

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现在呢只剩下三番7000点整数关口瑟瑟发抖了

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不知道会不会在本周就能摸到

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而下方5日均线大约在6850附近呃

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鉴于今天收盘这么强势哈

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那明天开盘可能会借助惯性直接高开

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但是这个时候呢不能再去追了

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得先缓一缓

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让情绪冷却一下

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底下ISI指标显示

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行情已经进入极度超卖区间了

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短期回撤压力正在积压

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神奇九转指标呢已经达到了数字九

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今天日K嗯刺破了这个布林通道上轨

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这种狂奔啊意味着极高的波动率即将到来

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明天VX结算可能就是导火索

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历史上呢VX结算日前夕

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往往是行情最亢奋的时候

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而结算当天则是典型的结构性拐点出现嗯

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过去几天大盘涨得太凶

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维克斯一路狂跌

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做市商为了对冲波动率呢

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卖出了大量mix看涨期权

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同时被动持有标普期货多头头寸

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结算完成之后

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做市三位的对冲波动率

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而被迫买入标普期货的压力会瞬间消失

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并且呢需要平掉手里这些标普多单

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也就是被动卖出啊

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这也是为什么在VX结算日的前后

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经常会出现行情突然转弱的情况

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所以这个周三或者周四盘中哈

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指数可能会从当天的日内高位

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就突然出现掉头杀跌嗯

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来个0.8%

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到1.2%左右的技术性回撤

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这是一个比较合理的预期

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但是呢这种回调只是对于过热节奏的修正

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而不是趋势再次翻空

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也就是油价不失控嗯

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通胀不爆表

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盈利预期还在那么回踩

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反而是机会

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而不是风险了

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如果前面踏空了

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拍断大腿的朋友们

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可以等指数回踩到

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比如6850的位置附近再考虑进场

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从风险收益比来看呢

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等回调要比现在直接去追高要舒服得多哈

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回踩确认之后

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可能就是要借助这个财报啊

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向新高冲刺了

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从结构来看

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这一轮反弹的主线也越来越清晰

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真正带动市场走强的还是科技硬件和半导体

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尤其是AI相关的算力

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存储通信

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还有官网络基础设施

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职业方向不仅有业绩支撑

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而且具备中长期逻辑

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是当前最硬的主线

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今天公布财报的几个银行股表现不一

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花旗QE整体业绩强劲增长

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营收同比增长14.1%

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净利润58亿美元

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同比增长42.3%

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主要得益于所有五大这个业务板块的增长

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以及较低的有效税率

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股价季后上涨

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Q1收入同比增长6%

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没达到市场预期

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每股收益1.6美元

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略好于预期的1.58美元

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由于利率维持高位更长时间

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市场原本预期

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这将为资产对利率更敏感的富国银行提供支撑

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结果呢Q1的净利息收入不及预期

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而且全年指引维持不变

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引发的是惨失望情绪

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并且脱离了股价表现

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摩根大葱虽然整体业绩强劲

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股价季后仍然小幅回落

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U1是营收同比增长大约10%

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净利润165亿美元

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赚翻了哈

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同比增长13%

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都超过市场预期

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盈利效率保持行业领先水平

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我觉得嗯要是只能买一只银行股的话

217
00:09:34,389 --> 00:09:37,149
那绝对是首选摩根大通哈

218
00:09:37,149 --> 00:09:38,850
而不是巴菲特的魅音

219
00:09:38,850 --> 00:09:39,850
信贷方面呢

220
00:09:39,850 --> 00:09:44,070
摩根大通计提潜在坏账拨备1.91亿美元

221
00:09:44,070 --> 00:09:46,370
增幅要低于分析十余期

222
00:09:46,370 --> 00:09:48,889
反映出管理层对当前信贷质量

223
00:09:48,889 --> 00:09:50,870
持相对乐观的态度

224
00:09:50,870 --> 00:09:53,679
所以前段时间那个CEO呃

225
00:09:53,679 --> 00:09:56,559
j b demon天天喊着信贷风险啦

226
00:09:56,559 --> 00:09:57,879
什么看到一字章啦

227
00:09:57,879 --> 00:09:59,320
就整个房间都湿啦

228
00:09:59,320 --> 00:10:01,068
那到底是为什么呢

229
00:10:01,068 --> 00:10:03,528
black hoker季后表现最佳

230
00:10:03,528 --> 00:10:05,149
股价涨超3%

231
00:10:05,149 --> 00:10:07,369
Q1业绩全面超预期

232
00:10:07,369 --> 00:10:09,460
营收同比增长27%

233
00:10:09,460 --> 00:10:12,019
调整后的净利润为21亿美元

234
00:10:12,019 --> 00:10:13,460
同比增长17%

235
00:10:13,460 --> 00:10:16,500
股价跳空高开后触及了年限阻力

236
00:10:16,500 --> 00:10:19,039
如果能够突破并且站稳

237
00:10:19,039 --> 00:10:21,600
那么将重返多头行情

238
00:10:21,600 --> 00:10:24,720
燃料电池制造商B股价持续大涨

239
00:10:24,720 --> 00:10:27,659
今天更是跳空高开飙升24%

240
00:10:27,659 --> 00:10:31,120
公司与甲骨文达成了战略协议

241
00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:34,179
后者呢计划采购总计高达2.8

242
00:10:34,179 --> 00:10:36,120
几瓦的燃料电池系统

243
00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:39,759
用来解决AI数据中心越来越紧张的用电问题

244
00:10:39,759 --> 00:10:43,360
B1的燃料电池能够提供现场电力

245
00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:44,340
安装迅速

246
00:10:44,340 --> 00:10:46,159
无需与电网相连

247
00:10:46,159 --> 00:10:47,450
即插即用哈

248
00:10:47,450 --> 00:10:51,350
目前双方已经签了第一批1.2G网的订单

249
00:10:51,350 --> 00:10:54,250
并且呢甲骨文还通过认股权证的方式

250
00:10:54,250 --> 00:10:56,589
和VE做了更深层的绑定

251
00:10:56,589 --> 00:10:59,068
以保障它能给OpenAI

252
00:10:59,068 --> 00:11:02,889
XAI这些核心大客户们建设的大规模AI集群

253
00:11:02,889 --> 00:11:05,179
能够有稳定的电力支撑

254
00:11:05,179 --> 00:11:06,879
从更大的逻辑看

255
00:11:06,879 --> 00:11:10,539
这一波AI浪潮已经不只是算力军备竞赛了

256
00:11:10,539 --> 00:11:13,460
而是升级成能源军备竞赛

257
00:11:13,460 --> 00:11:16,399
数据中心用电需求爆炸式增长

258
00:11:16,399 --> 00:11:18,139
传统电网跟不上

259
00:11:18,139 --> 00:11:18,940
各大厂

260
00:11:18,940 --> 00:11:21,370
只能够自己想办法去找电源

261
00:11:21,370 --> 00:11:22,769
在这个背景之下

262
00:11:22,769 --> 00:11:25,429
像这种能够提供现场发电

263
00:11:25,429 --> 00:11:27,149
又不依赖电网的公司

264
00:11:27,149 --> 00:11:29,429
直接就成了最大的受益者

265
00:11:29,429 --> 00:11:31,230
股价表现的也很夸张哈

266
00:11:31,230 --> 00:11:34,759
过去12个月累计涨幅已经翻了十倍呃

267
00:11:34,759 --> 00:11:37,179
市值冲到了600亿美元以上

268
00:11:37,179 --> 00:11:41,179
已经完全是AI电力赛道的超级热门标的了

269
00:11:41,179 --> 00:11:43,299
别说那些公用电力公司龙头

270
00:11:43,299 --> 00:11:45,980
什么vs t r c EG比不上

271
00:11:45,980 --> 00:11:48,059
就是这个赛道的当红辣子鸡

272
00:11:48,059 --> 00:11:51,409
燃气涡轮巨头GV的涨幅都比不过他呀

273
00:11:51,409 --> 00:11:53,610
果然还是盘子越小

274
00:11:53,610 --> 00:11:54,818
拉得越暴利

275
00:11:54,818 --> 00:11:57,918
量子计算这边呢也跟着集体起飞

276
00:11:57,918 --> 00:11:59,859
主要是因为达又放了一个大招

277
00:11:59,859 --> 00:12:02,799
就推出了首个量子AI开源模型

278
00:12:02,799 --> 00:12:03,440
行家族

279
00:12:03,440 --> 00:12:07,669
主打解决量子计算落地中的几个关键瓶颈

280
00:12:07,669 --> 00:12:10,870
比如处理器校准和纠错效率

281
00:12:10,870 --> 00:12:13,029
从技术角度看确实有进展

282
00:12:13,029 --> 00:12:15,570
比如速度提升了精度优化

283
00:12:15,570 --> 00:12:17,318
这些指标都挺亮眼

284
00:12:17,318 --> 00:12:20,399
但是这种消息吧更多还是点火期哈

285
00:12:20,399 --> 00:12:22,929
每次市场风险偏好回升

286
00:12:22,929 --> 00:12:25,070
流动性开始泛滥的时候呢

287
00:12:25,070 --> 00:12:28,529
热钱就会去找这些最有想象空间的方向

288
00:12:28,529 --> 00:12:30,119
做情绪放大

289
00:12:30,119 --> 00:12:33,479
量子计算本身还是处于非常早期的阶段

290
00:12:33,479 --> 00:12:35,918
但是因为故事足够大

291
00:12:35,918 --> 00:12:37,409
弹性足够高

292
00:12:37,409 --> 00:12:41,539
就很容易成为form募资金的首选标的

293
00:12:41,539 --> 00:12:45,620
其实就和隔壁那个加密概念股市同一个逻辑

294
00:12:45,620 --> 00:12:49,399
今天欧宾户的直接标普股价跳空上行

295
00:12:49,399 --> 00:12:52,659
本质上就是吃到了双重情绪红利

296
00:12:52,659 --> 00:12:55,480
一边呢使美股风险偏好回暖

297
00:12:55,480 --> 00:12:58,879
另外一边是加密市场同步升温

298
00:12:58,879 --> 00:13:04,629
这些迹象都确认了当下市场进入formal状态了哈

299
00:13:04,629 --> 00:13:07,649
嗯ob hood是一个多重叠加的标的

300
00:13:07,649 --> 00:13:09,269
又有什么券商业务

301
00:13:09,269 --> 00:13:10,649
又有加密交易

302
00:13:10,649 --> 00:13:13,419
还有预测市场的带点博彩属性

303
00:13:13,419 --> 00:13:14,940
在流动性宽松

304
00:13:14,940 --> 00:13:17,100
市场情绪偏热的时候呢

305
00:13:17,100 --> 00:13:20,409
这种高弹性平台最容易被资金追捧

306
00:13:20,409 --> 00:13:22,970
所以如果是做情绪交易的话

307
00:13:22,970 --> 00:13:26,389
那这类标的在当前这个formal环境下

308
00:13:26,389 --> 00:13:29,429
确实更容易跑出超额的收益

309
00:13:29,429 --> 00:13:32,029
嗯行今天我们就讲到这里

310
00:13:32,029 --> 00:13:34,450
来看看明天mix结算日

311
00:13:34,450 --> 00:13:36,470
会不会让日内出现剧烈波动哈

312
00:13:36,470 --> 00:13:37,720
我们明天见拜拜

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