【NaNa说美股】20260407美国佬能搞掂吗？

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是4月7号周二

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在最后期限

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光头汉

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美伊两国的演技比赛可以说进入了白热化

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双方互放狠话

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美国这边说大规模轰炸伊朗能源设施的方案已经是箭在弦上

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就等川总动动手指

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点个确定了

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伊朗那边呢则摆出一副滚刀肉的架势

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冷嘲热讽说美国这是黔驴技穷

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恼羞成怒

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要么赔钱

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同意在海峡开收费站

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要么就一切免谈

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这一通互放狠话

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看着全球股民那是一愣一愣的

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手里的鼠标啊

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在买入与清仓之间都快要点冒烟了

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双方的官方口径呢也是变得比天气预报还快

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伊朗德黑兰时报今天早上发文宣称

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伊朗已经关闭了与美国的所有外交渠道和间接沟通渠道

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摆出一副彻底谈崩的架势哈

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要鱼死网破

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结果两个小时后又自打耳光说没有这回事啊

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这要么是德黑兰内部呢也在玩办公室政治

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打得不可开交

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要么就是人民的喉舌

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而我们的川总更是神人呀

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昨天还信誓旦旦的说

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这是最后一次机会了哈

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绝不改期

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今天又说

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只要谈判有进展的话

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那咱们凡事还可以好商量

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不知道他到底是在等那第三艘航母布什号慢吞吞挪到中东呢

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还是真的在做这个打仗

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还是和平的内心挣扎

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伊朗也是吃准了美国国内政治压力与全面战争的高昂代价

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认定川普不敢真的把桌子给掀了

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这种赌徒式的心理博弈哈

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主打的就是一个看谁先憋不住

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由于这种极限拉扯

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今天股指日内走势就像是在坐过山车来回的拉锯

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而不是呈现单边行情

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反映出场内资金的纠结

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基金的投资者呢在做单向压注

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而更谨慎的投资者呢则选择对冲风险

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或者干脆离场观望

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就在市场快要窒息的时候

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请求川普再延期两周

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并建议伊朗在这两周期间象征性的先开开闸

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发翻船哈

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表表诚意

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随后路透社也跟进说

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伊朗在积极审议巴基斯坦的请求

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白宫呃

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这边呢说川总正在看这几条风吹草动

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就瞬间让量化打了积雪

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股指尾巴猛地一波拉升

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呃我怎么觉得这更像是川总给自己喊的场外援助呀

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让巴基斯坦出来铺个台阶

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既能够接波下驴

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维持硬汉形象

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又能够给美军集结呃

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多争取一点喘息的时间

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不然的话

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巴基斯坦哪有这么大的面子呀

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难道是要入场了吗

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最终呢标普与纳指居然硬生生的成功收涨了哈

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只有道指小幅收跌

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波动率指数仍维持在25以上

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散户还在博弈最后一刻的和平奇迹

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机构们呢增加了详情保护

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标普500指数日K收出一条长下影线

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目前仍在10日均线与年线之间盘整等待

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虽然官网反手为主

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但市场已不再为每一条惊悚的这个头条新闻全额定价了

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博弈的边界正在清晰

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市场最担心的霍尔木兹海峡永久关闭

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这个尾部风险可能性较低

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路径最终都会导向海峡的开放

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只是时间问题

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以及呃谁控制谁收费的问题

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就像那个SETL分析师在最新的研报中判断哈

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双方呃都无意迈出代价更高昂的下一步谈判窗口正在开启

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霍尔木兹海峡最终有望自然解封

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资金是不必等这个战火散尽

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只要风险的边界够清晰

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那文之word他们就会回来嗯

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关于接下来的短期走势

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我们要做好三种剧本的准备

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第一也是最理想的奇迹剧本

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双方今晚真的签了协议

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或木兹海峡重新开放

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那市场将会经历一场教科书式的空头踩踏

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标普500能够一路火花带闪电冲下6000

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680~6750的阻力强

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不过呢即便有停火利好

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多头冲到这里

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也会因为短期获利盘了

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结合机构调仓而弃短哈

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即使今晚停火

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过去六周

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油价维持在100美元以上

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对产业链的伤害已经造成

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而且这个周五公布的CPI数据可能不太好看

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3月份是伊朗战争打得最凶的时候

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WTI原油和汽油价格在3月份呢都出现了跳升

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根据克利夫兰联储的实时预测

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3月CPI环比增长可能高达0.84%

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同比增速可能直接弹回到3.25%到4%区间

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美联储依然要这个维持更久时间的高利率

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没有降息的流动性

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那不太可能支撑指数直接就冲上6800

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所以呢如果嗯今晚要是出了真正的停火协议

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股指如果暴拉的话

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周五之前最好就减餐嗯

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第二也是最有可能的磨人剧本

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就是川普同意延期两周

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这个利好相对有限

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霍尔木兹海峡呢已经成为伊朗手中最具威慑力的谈判筹码

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伊朗不可能放弃这张牌的嘛

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最多在这两周有条件的哈收钱放行

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一部分的传者不是真正的嗯

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全部重新开放指数大概率在年限于250日均线之间反复震荡

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等待周五的CPI审判

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还有下一个期限的到来

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第三就是那个大家都不愿意看到的开火剧本啦

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川普硬汉到底不再推迟期限了

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即刻开启大规模的军事行动

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一旦炮火再次响起

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那所有的停火预期都会化为抛压

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指数呢将会跳空低开

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目标再次指向这个前面的低点

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6350~6300点

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总而言之哈现在市场信心并不是建立在和平上

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而是建立在不确定性

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是在减少的共识上

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明天的走势那就只能看川普与伊朗的最后决定了

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现在就是情况变化的非常快哈

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说不定我这个视频出了之后又发生了一些新的变化

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国际油价呢今天攀升到了每桶一百十美元上方

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今天早上美国袭击了伊朗哈尔克岛的军事目标

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这导致重要的石油出口枢纽

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这消息在一定程度上支撑了今天油价的跳涨

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由市交易员正在为海峡长期封锁和伊朗基建被毁

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导致供应中断做最坏的打算

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所以这个油市额交易员是更悲观的

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如果今天晚上达成停火协议的话

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油价就会瞬间跳水到90美元以下

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但如果海峡更长久的封锁关到5月份的话

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油价就要炸掉一切风险资产了

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个股与板块方面

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正在研发的可折叠IPHONE在目前的工程测试阶段遇到的一些技术问题

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这可能导致原本的量产进度

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生产节奏以及后续出货计划都被迫推迟

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路透社随后也跟进这消息称

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最坏情况下

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首批出货时间甚至可能会往后拖上几个月

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消息出来之后

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短线情绪受到了影响哈

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不过11点过后

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股价又逐渐拉起来了

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收窄了日内跌幅

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市场只是把这个消息当成交易性的利空

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而不是趋势性利空

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毕竟只是有点小失望而已嘛

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不是什么大不了的事情

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不足以动摇苹果整个估值框架

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股价拉起来还有个原因就是目前正处于关键的年限附近啊

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这里是有多头的顽强抵抗的

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当时股价跌4%的时候

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我还犹豫着要不要做个日内哈

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结果被分心了

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因为呃看这个新闻那个新闻还有看其他的股票嘛

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等想起来再转头来看

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苹果已经拉起来了

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毕竟是超级权重股哈

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很多的抄底买盘就跑不进来承接了

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而且越是市场动荡不安的时候

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大资金就越爱躲在苹果这里抱团避险

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这一点来说

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七个巨头

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其他六个都是比不上苹果的

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博通股价今天呢跳空高开

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公司确认将会向ONTPC供应谷歌的TPU芯片

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提供英伟达技术的替代方案

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文件显示

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博通与谷歌已经达成了一项长期协议

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提供相关芯片

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并且签署了一项持续到2031年的供应保障协议

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这三家公司呢还扩大了一项战略合作

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top将会由此获得大约3.5几瓦的算力

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这个安排将会从2027年开始

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博通CEO上个月在财报电话会议上就曾提及过这个合作了

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也就是现在市场不太好

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要是换成去年市场情绪火热的时候啊

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这种利好消息一出来

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股价可以单日暴拉10%

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很久都没有看

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OKO了哈

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股价居然跌这么多

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之前市场最疯狂的时候

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大家把乌克露娜当成AI用电荒的终极受益股来炒什么小型核反应堆啦

207
00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:41,460
未来能源革命啦

208
00:09:41,460 --> 00:09:43,159
数据中心电力缺口啦

209
00:09:43,159 --> 00:09:44,809
全都往他的身上套

210
00:09:44,809 --> 00:09:46,730
故事讲得一个比一个大

211
00:09:46,730 --> 00:09:48,350
如今风口过去了

212
00:09:48,350 --> 00:09:50,129
市场不再追这个题材

213
00:09:50,129 --> 00:09:51,129
资金一撤

214
00:09:51,129 --> 00:09:53,289
股价立即就掉得一地鸡毛

215
00:09:53,289 --> 00:09:57,029
从高点193美元回撤了大约78%

216
00:09:57,029 --> 00:09:59,129
这暴利挤泡沫了哈

217
00:09:59,129 --> 00:10:02,450
而且公司高管在这个位置上还继续卖股票

218
00:10:02,450 --> 00:10:04,519
进一步打击了投资者信心

219
00:10:04,519 --> 00:10:07,879
欧克洛最大的问题呢就是它的兑现周期太长了

220
00:10:07,879 --> 00:10:09,299
没有基本面可言

221
00:10:09,299 --> 00:10:11,809
只能够靠热钱来炒作

222
00:10:11,809 --> 00:10:13,450
现在市场流动性不足

223
00:10:13,450 --> 00:10:15,629
美联储的降息空间被锁死

224
00:10:15,629 --> 00:10:17,279
哪有热钱来炒他呀

225
00:10:17,279 --> 00:10:18,740
那些什么量子啦

226
00:10:18,740 --> 00:10:19,580
机器人啦

227
00:10:19,580 --> 00:10:20,559
全都凉凉了

228
00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:23,169
热钱全都跑去炒太空概念了

229
00:10:23,169 --> 00:10:29,049
因为有space sex上市的这个龙头效应来吸引话题和市场热度嘛

230
00:10:29,049 --> 00:10:30,250
至于核电的话

231
00:10:30,250 --> 00:10:33,049
还得继续做冷板凳一段时间哈

232
00:10:33,049 --> 00:10:34,330
股价到底哪里是底部

233
00:10:34,330 --> 00:10:35,409
都不知道行

234
00:10:35,409 --> 00:10:37,529
今天我们就简单说到这里哈

235
00:10:37,529 --> 00:10:38,970
那我们就看呃

236
00:10:38,970 --> 00:10:42,289
今天晚上或者是明天早上到底会发生什么事情

237
00:10:42,289 --> 00:10:44,610
美伊双方是否又继续搭扣了

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00:10:44,610 --> 00:10:46,649
那我们明天见拜拜

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