李录手把手教你如何完整分析一家公司（李录2006年哥伦比亚大学经典演讲）

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那么我们先通过几个例子来了解一下

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不幸的是今天我要讲的内容

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你知道我现在不再谈论我们所拥有的

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所以我挑选了几个过去拥有的例子

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你知道我是在1997年底开始创业的

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你知道的

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呃

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在这过程中经历了一些

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呃

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真正创伤性的事件

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你知道其中一个就是亚洲金融危机

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然后还有科技泡沫

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几个不同的事情

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但在那段时期你

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往往会有更多有趣的机遇

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我们先从

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呃

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呃

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让我们回到1998年

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所以1998年发生了下跌

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我告诉你们我寻找的过程非常简单

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因为我对各种不同业务都感兴趣

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我通常只是获取菜单

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你知道我沉迷于价值线

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在我在这里读书时

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你知道每期新刊出来

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我只是喜欢从头到尾读完整本

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因为这才是最好的

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呃种教育方式

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如果你想建立百科全书式的

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知识库和数据库

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就必须

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呃所以只需浏览一下

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每一页都极具帮助

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首先我总是查看新低列表

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你知道这是最新的最低点

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书中列出的p o值

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这比新高列表更能吸引我其实

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我现在没有保留副本了

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我处理掉了

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所以我要求他们重印

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但编号不对

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我的意思是我在寻找大约

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呃我想是九月或八月左右

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当时股价大约在28左右

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这是46号

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编号不对

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呃

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所以大致算28到30

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现在看看这个

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你知道首先想到的是什么

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立刻跳出来

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有人给我快速读一下

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是的

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我发现你知道起始点通过波动

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没错

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高端市场

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每年都没有变化

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嗯

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嗯

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还有其他问题吗

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有

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我刚说对了

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对

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现在还有其他问题吗

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如果你是投资者

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你其实不关心它实际被处理过哪里

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哦我关心

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我告诉你我关注的是首次评估

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如果评估不符合

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我甚至不想继续深入

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所以怎样

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我们对估值了解什么

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是的

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对啊

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这是个好问题

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账面价值的构成是什么

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每次看到的都是低于账面价值

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你想说账面上有什么

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账面上有什么

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账面值是多少

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这很简单

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可以直接称为二十八

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然后你得到什么

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呃

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约一千一百五十万股

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大约三百多低

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三亿做近似估算

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不需要做所有快速计算

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现在看到的位置是

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营运资本接近三亿

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当然在季度末

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第三季度和零售业

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什么什么

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你知道什么

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第三季度末的零售业

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这就是真正的情况

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你

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你有点快速

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呃

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百科全书知识真的能帮助你所有零售业务

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在最后一个季度积累大量形象资产

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因此你要回顾往年数据以确定正常水平

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到年底将能大幅回笼现金

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所以你说

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好的

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这是一笔三亿美金

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几乎等同于全部账面价值

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约两亿七百五十万在营运资本中

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所有事项相互关联

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因此本季度末大概能收回一亿现金

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如果观察其他两年数据

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因此你拥有约两亿流动资产

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一百万无固定资产

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如果你这样做

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稍微多做些研究

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你会看到整栋建筑的房地产

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基本相当于三亿交易额

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其中两亿是流动资产

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然后约一亿在房地产中

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因此下行风险有较好保障

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我们了解哪些收益信息

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现金流情况

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最需关注的其实是

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那个

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税前及

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未

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利息前的未杠杆化收益

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并需比较其未杠杆化状态

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业务所需资本

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这能让你了解业务性质

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他们赚取多少利润

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请快速说明

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这金额是多少

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如果你有经验

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只需一秒就能找到答案

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你获得十三个百分点

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约八百单位的营业利润率

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八百

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八亿五千万

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大概获得一亿

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一亿一千万

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资本部署情况如何

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业务中投入了多少资本

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大致

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你大概会有

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假设两亿在流动资产中

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再加一百亿在建筑上

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其中两亿流动资产

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可能还有一亿现金

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因此你大致需要投入两亿美元资本

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回报大约是一亿十万美元

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你的资本回报率

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当时大概在50%左右

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这生意不错

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所以你不要读这个

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我是说

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你从头开始说

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快速扫一眼

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然后你说

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嘿

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这个生意我不关心

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你知道其他因素

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这家公司的股价大致

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你知道的

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接近账面价值

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账面价值很干净

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基本上由实物资产

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嗯

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流动资产营运资金加上

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嗯

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你知道的

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拥有1亿美元房地产

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资本投入基本是其中三分之二

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投入两亿美元可获约一亿美元回报

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这生意本就不错

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接下来你检查

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大致原因

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整个情况当时开始崩溃

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似乎有缺失

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我是说

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当你这么说的时候

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你会说哇

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这不错

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如果你拥有整个生意

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记住你要把自己当作老板

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如果我拥有这家生意

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如果买不起整个公司这个价

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你知道的

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你可能想拥有它

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其实这名字不错

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大多数人认得Tierland品牌

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当时的原因是什么

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当时正值亚洲金融危机顶峰

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所有竞争对手

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尤其是耐克和锐步

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看他们的股价

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尤其在亚洲地区

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嗯

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股价暴跌

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于是整个局势

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各种潜在风险

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所有鞋类零售商和国际品牌

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任何与亚洲有业务关联的都崩溃了

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但还有其他情况在发生

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所以你尝试

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你试图核查

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你知道其他人对此的看法

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你知道自己

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你可能没真正倾听他们的声音

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但你想真正了解他人关注什么

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于是查看是否有艾伦的报告

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结果没有分析师报告

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没人深入分析过

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对于一家年销售额十亿美元的公司

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你知道的

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这是一家合理的企业

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这是大品牌

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所以为什么

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没人关注这个

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你能推测的可能原因

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是的

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他们都需要在资本市场上运作

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不要这样

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这对你是好是坏

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对最好的

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这很好

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对你太好了

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对你太好了

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你回到十年前十五年

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价值线的优势是可以回溯十年十五年

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看看他们是否真的需要这笔钱

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在业务中过去发现了什么

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无论哪几年都在增长

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近年盈利能力大幅提升

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但一直保持较高利润

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因此对金融市场需求极低

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还有其他原因吗

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股权结构如何

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是的

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是的

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你的意思是什么

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家族控股

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他们持有40%股权

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他们掌握多少投票权

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他们拥有100%投票权

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基本98%

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这立刻让很多人却步

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然后你会发现

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你知道投资者如何反应

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在过去

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你可以快速进行

253
00:09:32,029 --> 00:09:32,549
呃

254
00:09:32,549 --> 00:09:33,769
一种数据搜索

255
00:09:33,769 --> 00:09:35,049
而这正是为什么

256
00:09:35,049 --> 00:09:35,629
你知道

257
00:09:35,629 --> 00:09:41,009
我说投资者真的应该

258
00:09:41,990 --> 00:09:42,669
进行调查

259
00:09:42,669 --> 00:09:43,330
一名记者

260
00:09:43,330 --> 00:09:44,809
因为我们有新闻业在这里

261
00:09:44,809 --> 00:09:48,809
我相信如果我让记者们看看这个问题

262
00:09:48,809 --> 00:09:51,950
你知道他们首先会说

263
00:09:51,950 --> 00:09:53,169
这个问题会涉及所有这些内容吗

264
00:09:53,169 --> 00:09:54,649
我刚才问的

265
00:09:54,730 --> 00:09:57,529
你几乎可以轻松找到所有答案

266
00:09:57,529 --> 00:09:59,250
而且非常迅速

267
00:10:00,269 --> 00:10:02,169
因此你需要保持高度活跃

268
00:10:02,169 --> 00:10:03,669
非常好奇的思维

269
00:10:03,669 --> 00:10:07,899
你不能接受任何虚假答案

270
00:10:07,899 --> 00:10:10,000
否则无法从事这项业务

271
00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:10,700
所以你继续

272
00:10:10,700 --> 00:10:15,090
发现实际上存在大量股东诉讼

273
00:10:15,090 --> 00:10:16,889
有一位股东持有百分之四十

274
00:10:16,889 --> 00:10:19,339
几乎拥有全部投票权

275
00:10:19,339 --> 00:10:21,918
而大多数股东没有投票权

276
00:10:21,918 --> 00:10:24,438
且没有分析师覆盖他们

277
00:10:24,438 --> 00:10:27,549
还有大量股东诉讼案件

278
00:10:27,549 --> 00:10:30,950
因此如果你不了解业务

279
00:10:30,950 --> 00:10:33,629
作为其他投资者的95%

280
00:10:33,629 --> 00:10:36,230
你会得出什么结论

281
00:10:37,340 --> 00:10:39,419
你的结论会是什么

282
00:10:40,169 --> 00:10:41,769
如果你是那种

283
00:10:41,769 --> 00:10:42,129
你知道的

284
00:10:46,210 --> 00:10:49,549
呃

285
00:10:49,549 --> 00:10:50,250
投资经理

286
00:10:50,250 --> 00:10:51,889
你会如何应对这种情况

287
00:10:51,889 --> 00:10:53,429
现在你掌握了所有信息

288
00:10:53,429 --> 00:10:54,318
请

289
00:10:54,318 --> 00:10:57,979
信息不足无法触及核心

290
00:10:57,979 --> 00:10:58,578
是的

291
00:10:58,578 --> 00:11:03,309
因此无法与其他情况关联

292
00:11:03,309 --> 00:11:04,169
是的

293
00:11:04,169 --> 00:11:05,350
我可能认为我

294
00:11:05,350 --> 00:11:05,629
你知道的

295
00:11:05,629 --> 00:11:07,070
问题是暂时的

296
00:11:07,070 --> 00:11:09,190
没错，公司规模小

297
00:11:09,190 --> 00:11:10,860
流动性良好

298
00:11:10,860 --> 00:11:13,080
我可能不会立即投资

299
00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:14,500
还有其他情况

300
00:11:16,240 --> 00:11:16,679
是的

301
00:11:18,679 --> 00:11:19,019
是的

302
00:11:19,019 --> 00:11:19,679
还有其他事情吗

303
00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:23,440
你们不够怀疑

304
00:11:23,980 --> 00:11:26,039
你真正担心的是什么

305
00:11:26,039 --> 00:11:26,779
呃

306
00:11:26,779 --> 00:11:30,340
管理层可能在榨取公司资源

307
00:11:30,750 --> 00:11:32,590
可能在操纵财务报表

308
00:11:32,590 --> 00:11:33,909
因为他们掌控一切

309
00:11:33,909 --> 00:11:35,509
实际上几乎没有

310
00:11:35,509 --> 00:11:36,450
呃

311
00:11:36,450 --> 00:11:39,169
他们几乎没有任何行为限制

312
00:11:39,169 --> 00:11:43,330
而且大量诉讼案件也表明你可以提出投诉

313
00:11:43,330 --> 00:11:44,509
没错

314
00:11:45,070 --> 00:11:46,110
接下来该怎么做

315
00:11:49,389 --> 00:11:51,029
接下来该怎么做

316
00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:53,519
嗯

317
00:11:53,519 --> 00:11:53,899
是的

318
00:11:53,899 --> 00:11:54,840
这是其中一点

319
00:11:56,279 --> 00:11:57,629
检查报告

320
00:11:57,629 --> 00:11:58,309
绝对正确

321
00:11:58,309 --> 00:12:02,830
下载所有法院案件文件

322
00:12:02,830 --> 00:12:06,110
每个案件从第一页开始读

323
00:12:08,419 --> 00:12:09,620
这就是我之前说的

324
00:12:09,620 --> 00:12:11,299
如果你没有好奇心

325
00:12:11,299 --> 00:12:13,440
如果你只是单纯想做

326
00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:14,779
因为你想从中获利

327
00:12:14,779 --> 00:12:16,970
你很可能不会这么做

328
00:12:16,970 --> 00:12:20,679
必须真正理解这一点

329
00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:20,960
你知道的

330
00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:21,960
我只是太好奇了

331
00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:22,860
发生了什么

332
00:12:22,860 --> 00:12:25,360
这明显不合理

333
00:12:26,330 --> 00:12:28,370
必须彻底调查每件事

334
00:12:29,850 --> 00:12:31,009
在阅读所有内容时

335
00:12:31,009 --> 00:12:34,659
就像我最初做的那样

336
00:12:34,659 --> 00:12:35,539
不到

337
00:12:35,539 --> 00:12:35,740
你知道的

338
00:12:35,740 --> 00:12:36,500
几分钟时间

339
00:12:36,500 --> 00:12:37,379
看看这个

340
00:12:37,379 --> 00:12:39,690
这就是你应该做的

341
00:12:39,690 --> 00:12:41,210
应该都是问题

342
00:12:41,210 --> 00:12:41,710
仔细阅读

343
00:12:41,710 --> 00:12:44,970
这会引导你发现所有内容

344
00:12:45,679 --> 00:12:47,860
我可能找到所有案件

345
00:12:47,860 --> 00:12:49,210
我可以找到

346
00:12:49,210 --> 00:12:50,509
你知道所有案件

347
00:12:50,509 --> 00:12:52,830
真的真的很重要

348
00:12:52,830 --> 00:12:55,149
实际上基本是同一投诉

349
00:12:55,149 --> 00:12:57,230
只是多次提交

350
00:12:57,230 --> 00:12:58,799
嗯，你知道的

351
00:12:58,799 --> 00:13:00,519
有人真的说得好

352
00:13:00,519 --> 00:13:02,799
他们曾经提供过一些指导

353
00:13:02,799 --> 00:13:04,399
但他们没有兑现

354
00:13:04,399 --> 00:13:07,000
投资者因此很生气

355
00:13:08,570 --> 00:13:10,950
所以老板也生气了

356
00:13:10,950 --> 00:13:13,759
你可以清晰看到他的防御

357
00:13:13,759 --> 00:13:16,940
通过阅读这些文件能感受到他的性格

358
00:13:16,940 --> 00:13:17,519
他说

359
00:13:17,519 --> 00:13:17,980
你知道吗

360
00:13:17,980 --> 00:13:20,149
我再也不干了

361
00:13:20,269 --> 00:13:21,750
我不再和街头打交道

362
00:13:21,750 --> 00:13:23,409
我不再提供任何指导

363
00:13:23,409 --> 00:13:26,649
我不需要任何人的一分钱

364
00:13:26,649 --> 00:13:28,950
生意非常棒

365
00:13:29,489 --> 00:13:29,989
好的

366
00:13:32,509 --> 00:13:33,369
接下来的事情是

367
00:13:33,369 --> 00:13:34,668
你们擅长什么

368
00:13:34,668 --> 00:13:36,308
如果他们真的这么做

369
00:13:36,308 --> 00:13:36,769
呃

370
00:13:36,769 --> 00:13:37,568
这样运行

371
00:13:37,568 --> 00:13:37,849
这个

372
00:13:37,849 --> 00:13:39,149
下一个问题是

373
00:13:39,149 --> 00:13:40,340
也许他们不是骗子

374
00:13:40,340 --> 00:13:41,779
但他们是好管理者吗

375
00:13:42,779 --> 00:13:44,899
我们如何了解其他正直的人

376
00:13:44,899 --> 00:13:47,059
我们如何了解这一点

377
00:13:47,370 --> 00:13:49,350
我该如何找到这些人

378
00:13:49,350 --> 00:13:51,129
你该怎么做

379
00:13:52,559 --> 00:13:54,220
你必须非常重视

380
00:13:54,220 --> 00:13:56,450
但如果你不是

381
00:13:56,450 --> 00:13:58,570
你不确定数据

382
00:13:58,570 --> 00:13:59,429
我是说

383
00:13:59,429 --> 00:14:00,629
你不在公司里

384
00:14:00,629 --> 00:14:02,429
但你知道他们盈利了

385
00:14:02,429 --> 00:14:04,634
如果他们下令

386
00:14:05,309 --> 00:14:07,309
还有什么可以做的

387
00:14:08,389 --> 00:14:10,629
你怎么知道他是有个性的人

388
00:14:10,970 --> 00:14:12,710
是的，呃

389
00:14:12,710 --> 00:14:13,730
联系他的邻居

390
00:14:13,730 --> 00:14:14,169
呃

391
00:14:14,169 --> 00:14:17,480
如果这个想法不错

392
00:14:17,679 --> 00:14:19,539
名录会提供他们的名字

393
00:14:19,539 --> 00:14:20,940
太好了

394
00:14:20,940 --> 00:14:21,679
你叫什么

395
00:14:21,679 --> 00:14:24,620
你该告诉邻居并说实话

396
00:14:24,620 --> 00:14:25,019
然后

397
00:14:25,019 --> 00:14:26,220
但确实

398
00:14:26,220 --> 00:14:26,740
呃

399
00:14:26,740 --> 00:14:27,519
我有些担心

400
00:14:27,519 --> 00:14:28,019
嗯

401
00:14:28,019 --> 00:14:29,279
其中一个主要担忧

402
00:14:29,279 --> 00:14:31,179
也许管理层可能不够诚实

403
00:14:31,179 --> 00:14:32,669
比如你的看法

404
00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:35,200
那如果直接说去见鬼吧

405
00:14:36,559 --> 00:14:38,679
你就挂断电话

406
00:14:39,320 --> 00:14:42,580
但大多数人会说去见鬼吧

407
00:14:42,580 --> 00:14:43,159
我现在很忙

408
00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:46,720
不过这招不错 再想想其他

409
00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:48,639
是啊

410
00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:51,860
没错

411
00:14:51,860 --> 00:14:53,419
那时候还没有谷歌

412
00:14:53,419 --> 00:14:55,240
但现在这个主意不错

413
00:14:55,240 --> 00:14:56,440
你的核心观点是

414
00:14:56,440 --> 00:14:58,639
你必须真正行动

415
00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:01,039
你知道 反反复复

416
00:15:01,039 --> 00:15:03,080
你知道我正好有个记者在这里

417
00:15:03,080 --> 00:15:07,620
但我一直把这份工作视为调查记者

418
00:15:08,100 --> 00:15:10,580
大多数创业成功的人

419
00:15:10,580 --> 00:15:12,779
也都个性鲜明

420
00:15:12,779 --> 00:15:13,740
有丰富经历

421
00:15:13,740 --> 00:15:15,328
你可以去审计

422
00:15:15,328 --> 00:15:19,250
留下大量证据展现他们的为人

423
00:15:19,250 --> 00:15:20,690
以及所作所为

424
00:15:20,690 --> 00:15:22,909
如何处理不同情况

425
00:15:22,909 --> 00:15:24,669
其实并不难

426
00:15:24,669 --> 00:15:27,299
但你需要

427
00:15:28,519 --> 00:15:32,740
大多数职业经理人不会将此视为业务部分

428
00:15:32,740 --> 00:15:35,799
但我要告诉你 你是那5%

429
00:15:36,200 --> 00:15:38,039
如果你成为那5%

430
00:15:38,039 --> 00:15:38,600
也许你不是

431
00:15:39,679 --> 00:15:41,419
但若想成为那5%

432
00:15:41,419 --> 00:15:43,009
这就是该做的事

433
00:15:43,370 --> 00:15:45,720
去了解他们的社区

434
00:15:45,720 --> 00:15:48,539
去教堂或犹太会堂看看

435
00:15:48,539 --> 00:15:49,259
你知道的

436
00:15:49,259 --> 00:15:50,960
去拜访所有人

437
00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:51,200
你

438
00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:54,210
让自己融入其中

439
00:15:54,409 --> 00:15:58,370
并向他们的朋友家人邻居介绍自己

440
00:15:58,370 --> 00:15:59,350
不要只是打电话

441
00:15:59,350 --> 00:15:59,909
亲自去

442
00:15:59,909 --> 00:16:01,889
在那里待几周

443
00:16:03,779 --> 00:16:04,740
值得的

444
00:16:06,019 --> 00:16:07,370
值得的

445
00:16:07,690 --> 00:16:11,490
尽可能多花时间

446
00:16:11,490 --> 00:16:13,169
去寻找他

447
00:16:13,169 --> 00:16:15,389
了解他对社区做了什么

448
00:16:15,389 --> 00:16:17,450
邻居和朋友会怎么说

449
00:16:17,450 --> 00:16:17,889
我的意思是

450
00:16:17,889 --> 00:16:22,620
说说他身上的特质能让你更了解他的性格

451
00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:26,320
你想要探索家族的动态关系

452
00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:29,059
这个人实际上只读完高中

453
00:16:29,059 --> 00:16:31,179
从未真正上过大学

454
00:16:31,179 --> 00:16:33,039
性格相对简单

455
00:16:33,039 --> 00:16:37,539
但为人正直善良且乐善好施

456
00:16:37,820 --> 00:16:38,960
去塞内冈比亚

457
00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:42,299
但并不特别虔诚

458
00:16:43,679 --> 00:16:49,700
但更有趣的是他有个儿子也进了商学院

459
00:16:49,700 --> 00:16:51,500
当时和我年纪相仿

460
00:16:51,500 --> 00:16:53,620
正值三十多岁中期

461
00:16:53,620 --> 00:16:54,980
三十岁到四十岁初期

462
00:16:54,980 --> 00:16:58,620
那时他已经被默认为公司CEO

463
00:16:59,940 --> 00:17:02,629
所以我做了我建议大家去做的所有事

464
00:17:02,629 --> 00:17:03,750
我进一步行动

465
00:17:03,750 --> 00:17:05,910
并发现了这些迹象

466
00:17:05,910 --> 00:17:08,759
父子俩都在董事会

467
00:17:08,759 --> 00:17:11,000
我发现其中一方董事会成员

468
00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:12,440
实际上由我的朋友担任

469
00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:15,200
于是我主动申请加入董事会

470
00:17:15,449 --> 00:17:16,828
所以我加入了董事会

471
00:17:16,828 --> 00:17:17,729
与儿子一起

472
00:17:17,729 --> 00:17:19,068
我们关系变得很亲密

473
00:17:19,068 --> 00:17:20,249
朋友

474
00:17:21,259 --> 00:17:26,180
然后我才真正了解这个家族的运转

475
00:17:26,180 --> 00:17:30,680
这是我见过最令人钦佩的家族之一

476
00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:33,859
他们品德高尚

477
00:17:33,859 --> 00:17:35,019
他们非常优秀

478
00:17:35,019 --> 00:17:38,949
同时还是杰出的商人

479
00:17:39,189 --> 00:17:44,960
最终股票仍在三十多美元徘徊

480
00:17:45,599 --> 00:17:47,680
所以某种程度上你已经解答了

481
00:17:47,680 --> 00:17:48,740
你大概了解了

482
00:17:48,740 --> 00:17:49,160
你知道了

483
00:17:49,160 --> 00:17:50,119
我有没有漏什么

484
00:17:50,119 --> 00:17:50,799
你大概会说

485
00:17:50,799 --> 00:17:51,500
应该没漏

486
00:17:51,500 --> 00:17:53,299
我没漏什么

487
00:17:53,380 --> 00:17:54,839
剩下的百分之九十五

488
00:17:54,839 --> 00:17:55,640
只是不知道

489
00:17:55,640 --> 00:18:00,359
或行业要求不允许他们处理

490
00:18:00,359 --> 00:18:02,579
那这时候该怎么办

491
00:18:03,059 --> 00:18:04,579
该怎么办

492
00:18:06,660 --> 00:18:08,380
你想买多少

493
00:18:08,380 --> 00:18:10,859
假设我们有一百美元

494
00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:26,160
那两百美元是多少

495
00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:27,759
好的

496
00:18:27,759 --> 00:18:28,240
嗯

497
00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:29,759
我想和这个班级谈谈

498
00:18:29,759 --> 00:18:32,279
因为你们现在还没被污染

499
00:18:32,279 --> 00:18:34,319
如果你想加入一个基金

500
00:18:34,319 --> 00:18:36,319
人们首先会告诉你

501
00:18:36,319 --> 00:18:36,880
哦天啊

502
00:18:36,880 --> 00:18:40,670
不要超过二十五个基点

503
00:18:40,789 --> 00:18:43,210
然后你可能会选择五十个基点

504
00:18:43,210 --> 00:18:44,410
你做一百分比

505
00:18:44,410 --> 00:18:45,230
这是一个百分点

506
00:18:45,230 --> 00:18:47,509
但他们使用的是基点

507
00:18:47,509 --> 00:18:49,569
所以每个数字都很大

508
00:18:49,569 --> 00:18:50,690
你知道吗男孩

509
00:18:50,690 --> 00:18:52,490
我们要做五十个基点

510
00:18:52,490 --> 00:18:54,190
这可是大事

511
00:18:56,049 --> 00:18:57,670
就是这样

512
00:18:57,670 --> 00:18:59,888
就是这样

513
00:19:00,568 --> 00:19:02,328
所以保持你的纯真

514
00:19:02,328 --> 00:19:05,909
因为现在你想到的都是常识

515
00:19:05,909 --> 00:19:09,595
想想你为搞对这件事付出了多少努力

516
00:19:10,289 --> 00:19:11,769
想想它有多好

517
00:19:11,769 --> 00:19:13,789
你几乎没有任何风险

518
00:19:13,789 --> 00:19:16,849
你在交易大约五倍

519
00:19:17,230 --> 00:19:18,829
接下来我做的事是

520
00:19:18,829 --> 00:19:20,849
我实际去了所有不同的商店说

521
00:19:20,849 --> 00:19:21,069
为什么

522
00:19:21,069 --> 00:19:24,529
近几年利润率大幅提升

523
00:19:24,529 --> 00:19:26,789
结果发现存在暴利

524
00:19:26,789 --> 00:19:28,009
在那个呃

525
00:19:28,009 --> 00:19:31,819
尤其是在城市里所有小孩想要的

526
00:19:31,819 --> 00:19:34,180
你知道的 Timberland 鞋和牛仔裤

527
00:19:34,180 --> 00:19:36,210
对于你知道的东西

528
00:19:36,210 --> 00:19:37,369
所有店长都告诉她

529
00:19:37,369 --> 00:19:39,609
他们根本拿不到足够库存

530
00:19:39,798 --> 00:19:43,038
看看他们的国际业务占比

531
00:19:43,799 --> 00:19:47,400
实际上在鞋类和亚洲不足十%

532
00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:50,039
他们从中赚了多少

533
00:19:50,039 --> 00:19:51,829
不到十%

534
00:19:52,069 --> 00:19:55,410
十个百分点中的十个百分点

535
00:19:55,410 --> 00:19:56,829
所以计算所有这些

536
00:19:56,829 --> 00:19:58,150
你说他们都消失了

537
00:19:58,150 --> 00:19:59,670
你在亏钱

538
00:19:59,670 --> 00:20:05,150
因此减少了不到五个百分点的利润

539
00:20:11,019 --> 00:20:12,299
我投入了大量

540
00:20:15,819 --> 00:20:18,019
谁知道之后会发生什么

541
00:20:20,299 --> 00:20:21,299
在接下来两年

542
00:20:21,299 --> 00:20:21,539
我说啊

543
00:20:21,539 --> 00:20:22,460
你们都有互联网

544
00:20:22,460 --> 00:20:24,380
可以立刻查证

545
00:20:26,450 --> 00:20:28,049
你真的应该这么做

546
00:20:29,289 --> 00:20:29,730
你应该

547
00:20:29,730 --> 00:20:32,089
为什么要听这些废话

548
00:20:32,539 --> 00:20:34,359
你就做你想做的事

549
00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:35,059
正如我之前所说

550
00:20:35,059 --> 00:20:36,039
你知道你现在是对的

551
00:20:36,039 --> 00:20:38,380
因为其他人会告诉你必须附和你

552
00:20:38,380 --> 00:20:38,660
没错

553
00:20:38,660 --> 00:20:40,490
因为你必须这样做

554
00:20:40,490 --> 00:20:41,970
你需要检查一下

555
00:20:41,970 --> 00:20:45,470
所有这些都应该在五分钟内出现

556
00:20:45,470 --> 00:20:47,470
否则你就不是个好分析师

557
00:20:47,470 --> 00:20:48,630
如果你不是个好分析师

558
00:20:48,630 --> 00:20:52,709
你永远成不了优秀的投资者

559
00:20:52,709 --> 00:20:56,769
所以你需要尽可能技术性地训练自己

560
00:20:56,769 --> 00:20:58,549
熟练掌握所有这些内容

561
00:20:58,549 --> 00:20:59,869
接下来两年

562
00:20:59,869 --> 00:21:02,630
这个该死的东西涨了七倍

563
00:21:04,480 --> 00:21:07,019
事实是花所有时间

564
00:21:07,019 --> 00:21:08,539
都是由盈利推动的

565
00:21:08,539 --> 00:21:10,480
所以你花这么多时间

566
00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:12,589
你仍然没有风险

567
00:21:12,589 --> 00:21:14,069
不是在隐藏什么

568
00:21:14,069 --> 00:21:14,430
你知道的

569
00:21:14,430 --> 00:21:16,009
撰写这家科技公司

570
00:21:16,009 --> 00:21:17,659
在股价翻倍后

571
00:21:17,659 --> 00:21:19,878
你将面临巨大攻击

572
00:21:19,878 --> 00:21:22,159
市盈率从未超过十五倍

573
00:21:22,159 --> 00:21:24,019
盈利从未

574
00:21:24,589 --> 00:21:27,289
但如果你从五倍调整到

575
00:21:27,289 --> 00:21:28,990
你知道到十五倍

576
00:21:28,990 --> 00:21:31,029
在这段时间盈利持续增长

577
00:21:31,029 --> 00:21:32,730
每年30%

578
00:21:33,009 --> 00:21:34,009
我的意思是这些数据加起来

579
00:21:35,329 --> 00:21:35,849
这些数据加起来

580
00:21:36,890 --> 00:21:40,450
而他接管了CEO职位

581
00:21:40,450 --> 00:21:44,118
他完全有不同的公司管理理念

582
00:21:44,118 --> 00:21:45,598
思路非常清晰

583
00:21:45,598 --> 00:21:47,759
见过最 articulate 的人之一

584
00:21:47,759 --> 00:21:49,138
斯图尔特是

585
00:21:49,460 --> 00:21:52,079
这需要与普通分析师对话

586
00:21:52,079 --> 00:21:54,869
不提供盈利指引

587
00:21:54,869 --> 00:21:55,910
而是 endless 会议

588
00:21:55,910 --> 00:21:56,970
第一次会议

589
00:21:56,970 --> 00:21:57,490
猜猜是谁

590
00:21:57,490 --> 00:21:57,849
哦

591
00:21:57,849 --> 00:21:58,170
你知道的

592
00:21:58,170 --> 00:22:00,089
有多少人到场

593
00:22:00,170 --> 00:22:02,789
只有他、我和其他一名分析师

594
00:22:02,789 --> 00:22:03,410
三个人

595
00:22:04,569 --> 00:22:07,839
三个人和最后一名分析师

596
00:22:07,839 --> 00:22:09,359
当我稍微有点

597
00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:09,759
你知道的

598
00:22:09,759 --> 00:22:12,039
大约在两千到两千

599
00:22:12,039 --> 00:22:17,279
房间里几乎挤满了将近六十人

600
00:22:18,279 --> 00:22:19,680
一位主要的街边经纪人

601
00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:21,409
房屋类型的发起者

602
00:22:21,409 --> 00:22:22,548
某种保护措施

603
00:22:22,548 --> 00:22:23,328
所以这不

604
00:22:23,328 --> 00:22:23,689
我知道

605
00:22:23,689 --> 00:22:24,868
当我必须卖出时

606
00:22:24,868 --> 00:22:26,769
所以无论如何都要卖掉一切

607
00:22:26,769 --> 00:22:28,929
我们回去说声你好

608
00:22:29,460 --> 00:22:30,000
你知道的

609
00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:30,859
时间啊

610
00:22:30,859 --> 00:22:31,920
有点翻倍

611
00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:34,500
这大约是一年前半的事

612
00:22:34,500 --> 00:22:36,130
是的

613
00:22:36,369 --> 00:22:41,049
你担心1994到1996年间发生了什么吗

614
00:22:41,049 --> 00:22:43,410
特别是19

615
00:22:44,230 --> 00:22:46,269
因为正是那时发生了诉讼

616
00:22:46,269 --> 00:22:48,349
哈哈哈

617
00:22:48,349 --> 00:22:52,500
他们确实有一段时间，发生了什么呢

618
00:22:52,500 --> 00:22:55,079
他们在那个阶段确实犯了错误

619
00:22:55,079 --> 00:22:57,460
因为他们的产品有问题

620
00:22:57,460 --> 00:23:02,539
他们真正是靠防水声誉建立业务的

621
00:23:03,819 --> 00:23:04,279
呃

622
00:23:04,279 --> 00:23:08,299
他们是首个提出防水概念的人

623
00:23:08,539 --> 00:23:09,660
所以他们确实

624
00:23:09,660 --> 00:23:10,140
呃

625
00:23:10,140 --> 00:23:10,619
你知道的

626
00:23:10,619 --> 00:23:11,359
有点混合

627
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:16,960
他们同时传递防水鞋和非防水纸巾的矛盾信号

628
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:19,740
这是一项营销失误

629
00:23:19,740 --> 00:23:20,819
这确实是个错误

630
00:23:20,819 --> 00:23:22,299
扰乱了市场

631
00:23:22,299 --> 00:23:25,130
也损害了他们的信誉声明

632
00:23:25,130 --> 00:23:27,809
但这仍然

633
00:23:28,210 --> 00:23:32,650
即便那一年收入仍持续增长

634
00:23:32,650 --> 00:23:35,009
他们只有一年的瑕疵

635
00:23:35,009 --> 00:23:39,369
大部分时间业务执行得相当出色

636
00:23:39,490 --> 00:23:40,150
是的

637
00:23:40,150 --> 00:23:40,650
没错

638
00:23:40,650 --> 00:23:43,789
我们与太阳公司保持密切关系

639
00:23:43,789 --> 00:23:47,598
这不会触发内幕交易

640
00:23:47,598 --> 00:23:50,160
确实会

641
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:50,779
这就是原因

642
00:23:50,779 --> 00:23:52,900
所以我之后没买任何东西

643
00:23:53,509 --> 00:23:54,829
你不需要

644
00:23:54,829 --> 00:23:57,670
你已经在28元全买了

645
00:23:58,029 --> 00:23:58,549
你知道的

646
00:23:58,549 --> 00:23:59,789
你知道他们上涨时

647
00:23:59,789 --> 00:24:00,069
你不需要

648
00:24:00,069 --> 00:24:02,430
你只需坐稳不动

649
00:24:02,769 --> 00:24:04,289
不用做任何该死的事

650
00:24:04,289 --> 00:24:06,430
真正购买优质生意确实是个好选择

651
00:24:06,430 --> 00:24:07,789
生意会自己照顾自己

652
00:24:07,789 --> 00:24:09,159
我是说正如查斯所说

653
00:24:09,159 --> 00:24:11,939
你会上上下下地书写

654
00:24:11,939 --> 00:24:14,159
凭借生意的力量

655
00:24:14,740 --> 00:24:16,740
是的

656
00:24:17,859 --> 00:24:19,650
你花了多少时间

657
00:24:22,410 --> 00:24:24,329
实际上通常只需几周

658
00:24:24,329 --> 00:24:25,930
我是说所有这些令人惊讶

659
00:24:25,930 --> 00:24:27,650
其实没花太久

660
00:24:27,650 --> 00:24:29,809
但当事情发生时

661
00:24:29,809 --> 00:24:30,589
呃

662
00:24:30,589 --> 00:24:32,490
你必须全身心投入

663
00:24:32,490 --> 00:24:33,799
日夜不停地去做

664
00:24:33,799 --> 00:24:34,960
日夜不停地去做

665
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:37,099
这就是我庆幸妻子在这里

666
00:24:37,099 --> 00:24:39,039
这样我就知道所有缺失

667
00:24:39,039 --> 00:24:40,690
我在做什么

668
00:24:40,690 --> 00:24:43,309
是啊哈哈哈哈哈

669
00:24:43,309 --> 00:24:44,990
你知道这样的机会

670
00:24:44,990 --> 00:24:46,049
不会经常出现

671
00:24:46,049 --> 00:24:46,769
所以当它

672
00:24:46,769 --> 00:24:47,490
当它到来时

673
00:24:47,490 --> 00:24:49,329
你必须抓住它

674
00:24:49,490 --> 00:24:51,349
必须彻底完成所有事

675
00:24:51,349 --> 00:24:52,410
但必须迅速行动

676
00:24:53,730 --> 00:24:55,450
这就是为什么你要自我训练

677
00:24:55,450 --> 00:24:58,319
所有那些无需做任何事的时间

678
00:24:58,319 --> 00:24:59,380
把事情存入银行

679
00:24:59,380 --> 00:25:00,059
这没问题

680
00:25:00,059 --> 00:25:01,579
你无需购买任何东西

681
00:25:01,579 --> 00:25:03,319
但机会来临时

682
00:25:03,319 --> 00:25:05,170
你必须立刻行动

683
00:25:05,170 --> 00:25:08,329
这就是我完成所有事情时的做法

684
00:25:08,329 --> 00:25:09,450
其实没花太久

685
00:25:09,450 --> 00:25:12,829
但短期内要投入大量工作

686
00:25:12,829 --> 00:25:14,150
是的

687
00:25:14,150 --> 00:25:14,670
你

688
00:25:14,670 --> 00:25:16,490
呃 你通常在屏幕上找东西吗

689
00:25:16,490 --> 00:25:18,339
你很好

690
00:25:18,339 --> 00:25:19,720
我喜欢读这个

691
00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:21,519
主要因为本身就很棒

692
00:25:21,519 --> 00:25:22,240
这是很好的活动

693
00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:26,740
我无需寻找已学到的东西

694
00:25:27,339 --> 00:25:28,980
我对所有生意都感兴趣

695
00:25:28,980 --> 00:25:31,920
这就是为什么机会可能在几秒内出现

696
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:34,250
你能察觉到并嗅到它

697
00:25:34,250 --> 00:25:36,089
如何真正培养这种嗅觉

698
00:25:36,089 --> 00:25:36,930
唯一的方法就是

699
00:25:36,930 --> 00:25:39,659
那只是一页页地阅读

700
00:25:39,858 --> 00:25:42,358
而价值线表现尤为出色

701
00:25:42,358 --> 00:25:43,960
因为它真正呈现了

702
00:25:43,960 --> 00:25:44,599
你知道的

703
00:25:44,599 --> 00:25:45,240
呃

704
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:49,380
各种不同数据和多年的数据

705
00:25:49,380 --> 00:25:51,519
不仅仅是单一年份

706
00:25:52,130 --> 00:25:54,470
所以这就是

707
00:25:54,470 --> 00:25:55,089
你知道的

708
00:25:55,089 --> 00:25:58,809
这是你真正学习众多不同企业的最简便方法

709
00:25:59,289 --> 00:25:59,849
是的

710
00:25:59,849 --> 00:26:02,460
所以你为该基金投入了百分之多少

711
00:26:02,460 --> 00:26:04,460
我

712
00:26:04,460 --> 00:26:07,480
我其实不太关注这个节目

713
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:09,779
但是一大堆

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