【NaNa说美股】20260424第一个大户要出货了！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是4月24号周五

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美股三大股指涨跌不一

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标普与纳指都再创新高

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道指小幅收跌

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消息面上

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每一第二轮谈判在巴基斯坦秘密重启的传闻

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成了情绪催化剂

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昨天盘后路透社报道称

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伊朗外长阿拉格奇

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将率伊朗代表团抵达巴基斯坦

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与此同时

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美国这一边派出总统特使

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威特科夫和女婿科什纳前往伊斯兰堡

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为第二轮谈判做准备

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这个消息呢立即提振了市场情绪

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虽然伊朗官媒在那大玩文字游戏

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硬说阿拉格奇此行的目的并非与美国进行谈判

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顺路访问巴基斯坦

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实际上这就是典型的台面下接触

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台面上否认的套路啊

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这话是说给伊朗国内基本盘停的哈

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混声

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强硬派阿拉格奇来取代务实派的卡利巴夫呢

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看似好像谈不拢

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但事实上温和派就没牌了

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换一个能拍板的上来说话

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在伊朗复杂的政治结构中

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温和派在谈判桌上表现的再好

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回国后往往也会被强硬派和军方视为卖国

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而像阿拉格奇这样

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一旦他点头

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意味着德黑兰内部已经达成了利益交换的共识

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所以达成的妥协也会往往最稳固嗯

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纽约时报这边就报道称

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阿拉格奇将会在巴基斯坦期间

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就美国提出的和平协议提交一份新的书面回应

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并且呢计划与这个周六与美国谈判团队会面

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这次谈判很可能会获得进展啊

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因为伊朗重新开放了领空

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首都最大机场

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明天25号起将逐步恢复飞往土耳其

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阿曼和中国的国际航班

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伊朗民航部门表示

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伊朗各机场的航班服务将会逐步恢复正常

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虽然那边的局势仍存在很大不确定性

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但总归是一个好迹象

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如果伊朗军方认为这个周末或者是近期哈

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这个美国会偷袭或者会有新一轮空袭冲突

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那就不会轻易重新开放民航通道或者领空

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所以这意味着

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这个周末

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台面下的沟通

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可能已经达成了一定程度的不升级的默契

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这绝非单纯的法律流程哈

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而是不是在为呃

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kevin wash善舞

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为了清扫政治障碍

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资金最怕的是不确定性

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一旦继任路径清晰

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长线资本尤其是债市大户的调仓就会加速

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这对股市来说也是利好

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Kevin watch

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今天在接受CNBC采访的时候

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直接挑明了未来降息的核心逻辑

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就是AI会让几乎所有东西的成本都大幅下降

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我们正处在一轮生产力大爆发的起点

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未来的经济增长不会再催生通胀

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物价已经进入结构性下行周期

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现在才刚刚开始

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不管他说的是对还是错哈

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市场只听到了四个字

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那就是降息稳了

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因此美债收益率就应声走低

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这也是这个支撑

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美股市场持续走高的一个原因之一

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标普500指数今天结束了前面五天的横盘格局

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继续上攻

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测试7150~7200点

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这个阻力区域

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只要在6900~7000点的关键支撑区域上方

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那么多头就占据着主导地位

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当前这一轮涨势虽然已经过度拉升

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但是尚未破裂

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嗯本周呢指数累涨0.55%

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在前面三周连续大涨之后呢

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市场也开始放慢了速度

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摩根大通预计

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随着指数接近七千二七千三的关键阻力带

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市场将在未来几周开始减速

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长期趋势线可能会开始限制收益

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但这并不一定意味着回撤

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只是可能从前面呃急具有动能驱动的上涨

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转变为更为缓慢而且渐进的攀升

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但是在更短线的走势上哈

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高盛警告称

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CCTA将会在下周出现温和的卖出

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无论是涨是涨还是跌

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而且更重要的是

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在近期这一场暴涨之后呢

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到了这个4月底

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美国养老基金为了维持股债比例

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将抛售230亿美元的股票

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这张图表直观地展示了自2000年以来

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每月养老基金调仓的估算值

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而今年这个4月份的抛售额

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在扣除掉那些季度末月份之后呢

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将会创下历史最高纪录

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比以往任何一个非季度月份的抛售力度

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还要高出25%以上

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这是因为近期股市的涨幅呢远远超过了债市

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导致养老金账户里的股票资本占比超标

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基金经理们必须通过卖出股票

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买入债券来实现资产配置再平衡

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正因为在在接下来的交易日里啊

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就下周即便市场情绪依然高涨

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这一股来自养老金系统的巨大抛售力量呢

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也会成为股市上行路径上的

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一个不可忽视的阻碍

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历史经验告诉我们

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这种数额巨大而且高度确定的卖压哈

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往往会在高位呢引发阶段性的震荡

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或者是获利回度

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所以在一片叫好声当中

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这230亿美元的卖盘

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或许就是检测当前牛市成色的第一块试金石了

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美银呢则在最新报告中指出

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纳值100正在重现

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类似互联网泡沫时期的典型走势

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嗯截止本周三

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大指100在过去16个交易日中

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有14天指数与10日实际波动率同步上行

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在正常市场环境下哈

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指数的上涨往往会伴随着波动率收敛

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越长越稳才是常态

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而不是越长越燥

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历史上这种股指与波动率同涨的情况呢

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通常出现在危机后的修复初期

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比如08年金融危机

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或者2020年疫情暴跌之后

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牛市重启阶段哈

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但是本轮行情显然并不属于这一范畴

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因为纳指100指高点回撤仅约12%

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标普500的跌幅甚至不足10%

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所以这根本就谈不上深度熊市后的修复

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这不是废墟上重建

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而更像是情绪驱动下的二次加速

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本轮反弹最反常之处呢

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就是在于它的持续时间极长

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涨幅极大以及拉升的节奏极快

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这种组合在历史上往往更接近互联网泡沫

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后期特征

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而不是正常的呃

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牛市中段或者初步阶段

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当前市场正在发生的是典型的

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风险偏好失控的状态哈

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就疯了

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资金疯狂涌入科技股

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同时大规模买入看涨期权

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杠杆情绪而被持续的放大

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历史经验反复证明

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一旦市场进入这种阶段

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价格的上涨逻辑往往就会逐渐脱离基本面哈

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转向纯粹的流动性与情绪驱动

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但是这里有一个关键点

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也是很多金融大佬顶级投资者所反复强调的

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市场的非理性行情

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往往可以持续的比大多数人预期的更九

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泡沫在破裂之前看起来都像趋势

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这意味着即便估值已经很贵

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贵的离谱嗯

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短线已经严重超卖

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但是你很难精准判断它什么时候结束

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这也是当前市场最危险的地方

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不是没有人看出这个风险哈

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毕竟啊你看那些技术指标

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K线形态

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这些都是明摆着的

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所有的人都可以看得到

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但是所有人都在赌

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自己不会是最后一个接盘的嗯

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当前不仅是美股哈

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全球多类资产

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多个市场都在同步出现脱离基本面的定价迹象

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从每股科技权重到部分新兴市场的资产

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再到衍生品杠杆交易

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资金在系统性的追逐风险

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而并非回避风险

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所以呢美银对2026年的核心判断很清晰

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就是全球市场很可能呃

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在进入一个泡沫更频繁出现的阶段

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就非理性繁荣

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这并不意味着行情会马上结束哈

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泡沫不是说一出现你就马上破裂的

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但是这意味着呢波动会更大

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节奏会更快

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做错方向的代价也会更高

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这张图表揭示了一个令人震撼的现实

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AI不在仅仅是一个科技概念了

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它已经彻底成为美国资本市场的核心

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从股市维度看

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标普500指数正经历一场史无前例的权力更迭

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自2022年11月XTBT横空出世以来

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AI相关股票在标普500中的市值占比

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在短短3年内飙升了20个百分点

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目前已经占据了45%的金融份额

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这意味着

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这个涵盖了500家美国顶尖企业的指数哈

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而在在识层面呢

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AI的扩张也同样激进

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目前全美有15.4%的投资及债务

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与AI挂钩

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使其跃升为美国信贷市场最大的行业

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自2020年以来

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00:09:49,799 --> 00:09:52,909
达到了1.4万亿美元的历史峰值

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00:09:52,909 --> 00:09:58,330
这种单一主题同时统治股市与债市的局面

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在历史上从未出现过

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00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:03,919
可以说目前的美国金融市场已经进入了嗯

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不是AI就是全无的极端模式

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00:10:07,159 --> 00:10:09,139
这种高度集中的繁荣

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00:10:09,139 --> 00:10:12,440
在带来巨大财富效用的同时呢

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00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:16,639
也让整个市场与AI的技术变现逻辑就深度锁死

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00:10:16,639 --> 00:10:18,799
还形成了一荣俱荣

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一损俱损的格局

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00:10:20,639 --> 00:10:24,589
但这也成为这个很多人呃所说的

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这证明AI不是泡沫的一个有力的证据

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00:10:28,129 --> 00:10:30,399
但这个我们事后再看了

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00:10:30,399 --> 00:10:34,299
费城半导体指数呢连续第18个交易日上涨

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虽然超买又超买

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00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:38,519
但情绪上来什么指标都不好使

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00:10:38,519 --> 00:10:40,559
日K跳空高开后呢

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00:10:40,559 --> 00:10:42,240
收出一根阳线十字星

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00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:44,820
破解了昨天日K3引线的压力哈

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不过这个高位十字星也是让人有点担心

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00:10:48,179 --> 00:10:50,090
会不会是拐点了嗯

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00:10:50,090 --> 00:10:52,070
毕竟股市不是永动机吗

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00:10:52,070 --> 00:10:54,129
都18天连涨了

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不可能涨到十二十五天

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连涨30天连涨是吧

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呃英特尔财报后

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股价原地起飞哈

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00:11:00,659 --> 00:11:01,580
坐了火箭了

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全天暴涨近24%

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直接刷新了1987年以来的单日涨幅记录

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00:11:06,970 --> 00:11:10,879
比当年互联网泡沫那个政治还要更生猛哈

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00:11:10,879 --> 00:11:13,299
由国家队站台要杆子就是硬

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股价窜升的速度呢

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比华尔街分析师们的勘展报告更新速度还要快

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00:11:18,519 --> 00:11:21,559
美银刚刚才将目标股价从48美元

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00:11:21,559 --> 00:11:22,840
上调到56美元

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00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:25,440
瑞银才将目标股价从65美元

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上调到83美元

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都赶不上这个最新的收盘价

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虽然陈老板呢在财报电话会议上吹得天花乱坠

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00:11:33,509 --> 00:11:36,149
台下的分析师们也纷纷起立鼓掌

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但是有一说一

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这个季度营收增速才7%而已

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股价居然拉出24%的涨幅

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这合理吗

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00:11:44,519 --> 00:11:47,840
隔壁英伟达几次营收增速六七十%

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结果股价还倒跌5%呢

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00:11:49,919 --> 00:11:51,720
那上哪里说理去

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你说至于所谓的营收利润都超过预期

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哎呀

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预期这东西还不是

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00:11:58,279 --> 00:12:00,519
华尔街那帮人想怎么写就怎么写

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00:12:00,519 --> 00:12:03,240
老黄家的财报次次都超预期呢

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结果还不是次次都坑爹

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00:12:04,919 --> 00:12:07,600
反而是英特尔靠着政策春药哈

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直接翻了好几倍

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00:12:09,279 --> 00:12:12,700
现在的市场就是典型的家里红旗不倒

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外面彩旗飘飘

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就是英伟达

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博通那几个大头镇守大本营

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00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:20,580
然后外面这些光模块啊

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存储啊

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CPU啊

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00:12:21,879 --> 00:12:24,110
这些配套设施玩得飞起

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00:12:24,110 --> 00:12:28,549
高通股价被英特尔季后的强劲表现带飞

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00:12:28,549 --> 00:12:30,610
跳空高开涨了11%

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00:12:30,610 --> 00:12:32,129
华尔街给出的理由是

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00:12:32,129 --> 00:12:35,970
AI基础设施投资带动边缘计算需求

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00:12:35,970 --> 00:12:39,370
而这些领域正是高通具有显著优势市场

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00:12:39,370 --> 00:12:44,409
这种小作文式的解释完全是先开枪后画靶哈

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00:12:44,409 --> 00:12:46,269
就是强行解释

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把英特尔靠代工业务和AI数据中心回暖

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撑起的爆炸

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硬贴到主攻手机和汽车芯片的高通身上

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00:12:55,440 --> 00:12:57,600
逻辑链条三是绕的太远了

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00:12:57,600 --> 00:13:01,889
甚至存在明显的属性错配与资金分流竞争

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00:13:01,889 --> 00:13:04,450
毕竟大厂分抢显卡的时候

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往往会挤压手机和PC芯片的预算

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00:13:07,990 --> 00:13:10,429
高通跟股价被带飞的真实原因啊

295
00:13:10,429 --> 00:13:11,789
还是半导体板块

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00:13:11,789 --> 00:13:14,779
大多数股票现在都已经在天上飞了

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资金开始啊

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00:13:16,480 --> 00:13:21,328
寻找那些还没有涨过的落后者来完成板块轮动

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00:13:21,788 --> 00:13:24,869
并非是高通基本面发生质变哈

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00:13:29,110 --> 00:13:31,799
那高通这个老登也可以嘛

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00:13:31,799 --> 00:13:33,100
从技术面上来看呢

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00:13:33,100 --> 00:13:36,700
高通的股价虽然已经重回50日均线上反

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00:13:36,700 --> 00:13:39,200
但这只是典型的超跌修复

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00:13:39,200 --> 00:13:42,960
股价需要持续站稳半年限与年限哈

305
00:13:42,960 --> 00:13:46,230
才能够被视为中长期趋势的全面反转

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00:13:46,230 --> 00:13:47,049
否则的话

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00:13:47,049 --> 00:13:49,870
这一波上涨可能仍然是昙花一现

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00:13:49,870 --> 00:13:51,850
就如隔壁的甲骨文一样

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00:13:51,850 --> 00:13:54,259
甲骨文股价今年又窜稀了

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这个才是让我们熟悉的画骨文啊

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前段时间大涨太让人不习惯了

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00:14:03,340 --> 00:14:04,539
让我心都凉了一半

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00:14:04,539 --> 00:14:06,860
但是虽然收盘拉回去了

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00:14:06,860 --> 00:14:08,580
但还是挺打击信心的

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资金再次放弃了软件股

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00:14:10,659 --> 00:14:13,309
都跑去半导体那边扎堆了嘛

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00:14:13,309 --> 00:14:15,389
CHTR股价暴跌

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00:14:15,389 --> 00:14:16,549
Q1业绩呢

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00:14:16,549 --> 00:14:20,490
再次暴露出公司基本面持续恶化的现实

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营收同比下滑1%

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主要受住宅食品与互联网业务疲软所拖累

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00:14:26,409 --> 00:14:29,009
宽带用户流失人数超出预期

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00:14:29,009 --> 00:14:30,850
每股盈利9.17美元

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不仅是产预期的9.96美元

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00:14:33,490 --> 00:14:37,649
在增长停滞与核心业务流设双重压力之下的

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公司估值持续被压缩

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00:14:40,059 --> 00:14:43,059
股价年初至今已经下跌了约14%

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更是较2021年高点825美元

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回撤了大约78%

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从市场定价来看

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00:14:50,039 --> 00:14:54,179
投资者已经不再将这股票视为稳定现金流的

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00:14:54,179 --> 00:14:55,379
防御型资产了

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而是逐步按结构性衰退行业来进行折价处理

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这股票居然还没被踢出标普500指数成分股

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00:15:04,159 --> 00:15:06,110
我觉得这才是让人惊讶的

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不要看它跌了这么多

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就想着去抄底哈

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00:15:08,809 --> 00:15:13,470
这类传统有线电视与宽带运营商所面临的这个

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00:15:13,470 --> 00:15:17,730
流媒体替代与用户流失的长期结构性挑战

340
00:15:17,730 --> 00:15:19,960
如果缺乏新的增长引擎

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仅靠成本控制与提价维持利润的模式啊

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00:15:23,740 --> 00:15:26,429
终究难以支撑这个估值修复

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00:15:26,429 --> 00:15:30,480
他的财报呢也脱离了主要竞争对手康卡斯特呃

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00:15:30,480 --> 00:15:33,039
后者股价今年也大跌了13%

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00:15:33,039 --> 00:15:35,109
日K收出一根长黑棍

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00:15:35,109 --> 00:15:38,009
昨天该股才刚刚因为公布嗯

347
00:15:38,009 --> 00:15:41,749
超预期的一季度财报跳空大涨过哈

348
00:15:41,749 --> 00:15:43,379
结果今天就掉下去了

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00:15:43,379 --> 00:15:44,139
买他们

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00:15:44,139 --> 00:15:45,419
那还不如买奈飞呢

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00:15:45,419 --> 00:15:47,820
好歹奈飞还有250亿美元的股票

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00:15:47,820 --> 00:15:49,360
回购计划行

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00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:51,539
今天我们就简单说到这里

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00:15:51,539 --> 00:15:53,419
大家也辛苦一周了

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那这个周末我们就好好休息

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00:15:55,159 --> 00:15:56,419
下次见拜拜

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